« September 2006 | Main | November 2006 »
October 30, 2006
What mobile AJAX can learn from the fragmentation of Java Me
By Paddy Byers
Edited by Ajit Jaokar
As we have seen from previous posts in this blog about Mobile Ajax, Mobile AJAX has a lot of potential. However, many questions still remain about the details of how Mobile AJAX could be implemented and exploited.
Specifically, this post discusses the problems that occurred in the evolution of Java ME (formerly called J2ME) and how Mobile Ajax and other browser technologies can learn from them; both in terms of the browser platform itself, and the associated developer ecosystem.
I’d welcome discussion on how to resolve the issues that are raised.
Mobile apps aren’t just about interactivity
Many inherent advantages of browser-based solutions have been articulated clearly in the preceding posts, and AJAX gives a dramatically superior level of interactivity than was possible with conventional XHTML; but the truth is that AJAX has only just improved interactivity to the point that it is good enough to be a credible experience (assuming services are targeting a typically specified feature phone and aiming for modest level of richness in visual experience). From the point of view of the interactivity enabled, AJAX could be likened to an early MIDP 1.0 Canvas-based application on a typical interpreted virtual machine.
The analogy with MIDP 1.0 doesn’t stop there.
The current mobile AJAX environment has many similarities with those early Java ME days: there are maturity issues (e.g. only one or two implementations, no common behavioural specification or precise API specification); ecosystem issues (eg a developer community naively believing that desktop implementation approaches will transfer seamlessly to mobile); and market issues (a broken value chain as it relates to the proliferation of technology enablers). The painful failure of early attempts to use Java ME as a service delivery platform should be a clear warning to the new generation of web 2.0 service providers aspiring to extend to mobile.
The key parallels, however, are in the level of platform integration offered.
Much of the mobile AJAX discussion has focussed on interactivity and connectivity aspects; but the problem is that the services that extend effectively to mobile will be those that successfully harness the mobile platform and its capabilities.
Some of these include SMS/MMS, multimedia capture, interactive multimedia playback, location, Bluetooth, etc. To implement these features, we require access to the platform i.e. device APIs.
Real mobile apps are not simply a thin projection of an interactive interface to a web-based application.
One of the main reasons for the failure of MIDP1.0 was that none of the key platform capabilities was exposed to the java programmer.
Many – nearly all – potential mobile applications, even if 99% implementable in Java ME, turned out not to be viable because of a critical dependency on some platform feature that simply wasn’t accessible in the Java ME environment.
The Java ME community realised this early on and sought to address it by extending the scope of the platform.
Unfortunately, this is where the problems really began.
Unilaterally defined APIs (in the case of MIDP1.0, this was primarily audio and security) were made by manufacturers and also by operators; and the community process later created formally standardised APIs.
Several years on we have platform APIs that have functionality gaps and are inconsistently implemented; further, there is no common policy for the deployment of APIs, either between operators, within a single operator, or even among the devices of individual manufacturers.
The resulting fragmented environment and ecosystem problems are well documented.
The key point is that Sun, to its credit, set out very deliberately to ensure that the java platform did not get fragmented and tried to put in place every technical, legal and commercial measure to implement its strategy – and it still failed.
Implementation interoperability must be addressed proactively
The current desktop browser market contains a small number of players with comparatively well-understood differences. Content authors can ensure that content is interoperable by coding directly to cater for those differences. Basic market dynamics force browser providers to fix problems and keep functionality in step with the market leaders.
The mobile browser market is different.
For one thing, it is still not following the full web browser standards. Also, there are multiple providers and already some fragmentation in respect of functionality; scripting interoperability is especially limited as a result of weak (or nonexistent) DOM implementations underlying many mobile browsers.
There are also few market pressures to correct this – operators are not (yet) mandating full browser functionality (such as AJAX); much of the functionality is not formally specified by W3C or another body; there are no independent conformance or interoperability tests.
Simply leaving this implementation interoperability issue to market forces to address will hinder mobile AJAX substantially. The operators have a position in which they could either improve or inhibit interoperability.
Possibly the worst of all outcomes is in fact the most likely, which is that a requirement to support XMLHttpRequest and certain scripting functionality is made mandatory, without the detailed technical specification and conformance backup needed for manufacturers to do it reliably; the result will be all manufacturers scrambling to incorporate weak but technically compliant implementations, stalling all efforts for genuinely functional and interoperable implementations.
This interoperability challenge should not be underestimated.
Contrast the browser environment with Java ME in which API specifications are developed under an open and formal process, there are tens of thousands of conformance tests, conformance is mandatory under the license terms for the technology, etc – and still interoperability is poor.
The definition of platform and extension APIs must be decentralised
The Java ME strategy is to define all APIs through an open, formal and consensual process which is centralised. When a requirement for a particular API is identified – location-based services, say – the various stakeholders (operator, device manufacturer, content developer, technology provider, etc) form an expert group to develop the API and associated resources and make it available to the industry. The aim, of course, is to avoid the fragmentary effects of there being multiple independent and competing APIs.
However, the centralised nature of this approach is one of its biggest problems.
First, consensus takes a long time and APIs arrive too late to be useful.
APIs become over-engineered because they not only have to meet the immediate need but also any other foreseeable future needs and edge cases – because once defined they can rarely be extended.
The process, in certain cases, also becomes mired in the competing technical and commercial agendas of expert group members; and the business model surrounding the resulting reference implementations and conformance test suites are problematic, which delays uptake, or stops it altogether.
Ironically, these issues then themselves become the cause of much fragmentation.
Due to cost and the risk of delay, manufacturers and operators do not incorporate new APIs unless there is a clear commercial need; and when they do, they all make different choices as to which capabilities to include.
Prior to standard APIs being available, operators and manufacturers still create private APIs, which must then be supported on an ongoing basis and contain a slightly different feature set from the standard so content cannot easily migrate to use a new API.
What’s needed is a decentralised process which allows platform owners and service providers to define and implement their own APIs.
Although at first sight this would appear to create fragmentation, it doesn’t provided that there’s also a way of writing and deploying libraries or wrappers that can implement one API on top of another.
It’s analogous to using WSDL to specify web services – there doesn’t need to be a centralised definition of any given API because the relationship between alternative APIs is explicit and users of those APIs can react by writing wrappers that implement one in terms of the other, or write their own higher level abstractions that can sit on top of either.
The proliferation of widgets in desktop web apps shows the power of this decentralised approach. The potential role of widgets in mobile web apps is something Ajit discusses extensively in his book.
How to make it happen?
None of these issues requires new technology – the industry has the capability to do all of it. But it will only happen if the market incentivises the relevant parties – the browser providers and device manufacturers – to make it happen. The operator, in principle, is sufficiently resourced and has sufficient control to do this – but so far the operator community doesn’t seem to have realised the significance of the opportunity, let alone confronted the issues that have to be resolved.
Posted by ajit at 5:15 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
October 29, 2006
Bill Jones - Global Village: e-government and DRM ..
Bill Jones of Global Village UK spoke in China in September where he discussed Mobile Web 2.0.
Bill has been a good friend to both Tony and I and travels around the world and discusses many innovative ideas at Government/country level, specifically in the areas of e-government and DRM.(Global Village won the European Union Guide Award for Online Excellence under the eContent program The award is recognition of the best in innovation that excels in generating novel ideas for e-government and Information Society development, and converting them into operative services.)
In this instance, Bill spoke at the Zhongguancun IT Festival, one of the largest in China on the topic of DRM. It takes place in Zhonggunacun which is the Silicon Valley of China located to the North west of Beijing in Haidian District which is the district near Tsinghua University (considered one of the top 3 Universities in the world along side Princeton and Oxford), and Beijing University. The event received national media coverage.
If you are interested in either e-government or DRM, please contact Bill/me and I will try and get some information. I have also asked Bill to contribute a small article to this blog about e-government and DRM and also about his talk in China relating to DRM
Posted by ajit at 8:10 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
October 26, 2006
Do you want to volunteer for Mobile Web Day?
Hello all
A longish post for completeness .. but this is a great idea.
Firstly, some background
Russell Buckley (currently managing director Europe for Admob ) is one the first person who I worked with when I joined the mobile data industry back in 2000. Since then, we have collaborated on and off with various ventures.
In a post (as below), Russell outlined the idea of a Mobile Web Day. As many of you know, I run Oxford University’s next generation mobile applications panel alongwith Tomi Ahonen
Tomi and I think the Mobile Web day is a great idea .. sort of like ‘Intel Inside’ of the mobile data industry i.e. some times we need a visual marketing campaign to remind ourselves about how much we have achieved as an industry. So, we are supporting it big time through forumoxford(which is global/free to join and has many innovators).
So, if you are interested, please email me at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com and lets work together to make this happen!
Russell's original post
There’s a real dearth of good data about the mobile web. If I want to find out the top websites in any country in the world, region or even globally, there’s any number of free and paid-for stats I could access.
The same isn’t true of the mobile web at all, as it seems to be off the radar for many analysts and marketers alike. I’m involved in the mobile web on a day-to-day basis through AdMob and via our partnerships with mobile websites and via talks with actual and potential advertisers throughout the world. But I’m constantly surprised at how vibrant the mobile web ecosystem actually is and how relatively low awareness is among decision makers and the people who influence them.
To put this in perspective in 1996 (if you can remember that far back) you couldn’t open a newspaper or business magazine without talk of this Internet thing and how it was going to change our lives. But at that time only 19% of US adults used it and the stats would have been even lower in Europe.
However, results of a tracking survey by ComScore Networks released yesterday showed that 19% of US adults use the mobile Internet today and yet the mobile web scarcely gets a mention in the press. Furthermore, Europe is even higher, with Germany and Italy leading the way with 34% each, then France (28%), Spain (26%) and the Uk at 24% - though stats I’ve seen from M:Metrics puts the UK at 29%.
I also know that these probably aren’t the biggest markets from AdMob stats - I’m sure that S Africa and India would be even higher than that.
So why is the world ignoring this - which is every bit as revolutionary as the PC-web before? After all, many members would agree, the mobile will become the single most important device for accessing the web, even in developed markets within a 5 year time frame.
I don’t have an answer, but I can speculate.
Since most usage is probably led by early adopting youth markets, older people - the decision makers and influencers - just aren’t aware of what’s going on around them. If 25% of the population started wearing berets and stripey T-shirts, it would be blindingly obvious that something was happening. Well, OK maybe not in France, but you get the picture. Whereas what you do on your mobile is essentially a private thing and it’s not getting seen.
So, do the industry a favour and point out to a few people that the mobile web is here and it’s being used by a big enough percentage of the population to be called mainstream - and it’s happening right under our noses.
Maybe we should have a Mobile Web Day and spread the good news - any takers?
My post at forumoxford
Hello all
Considering a great thread from Russell yesterday about the idea of the Mobile Web day, I volunteered to create some kind of working group (for the lack of a better word) and work with Russell on this
Tomi has gone one step ahead and posted a comment which essentially means we will offer a lot more direct and practical support to this idea from forumoxford
In a nutshell, I guess we could 'incubate' this idea within forumoxford.
since we will be always free and open to anyone who wants to join - it's a very inclusive proposition even to people who are not yet members
I still see Russell running it and fronting it(it needs a good marketing person - and Russell is one of the best I know!)
In addition, we will work with Russel by creating a small group of volunteers here at forum oxford considering our global reach and scope.
We are also looking to combine our idea of 'journal' with this initiative
I will take the lead from forumoxford but we will still be helping russell - so Russell and I will work together(along with Tomi) + a core group from here + the rest of the group
Maybe we make this a rotating group for volunteers?
Dont know
anyway, seek thoughts and volunteers
Tomi post as below from original link location
Hi Jim, Mark, Barbara, Alex, Keith and Faith
Very good! I was about to suggest Ajit might want to take a lead position at least here with our Forum Oxford gang, as this sounds like a good "brochure version" of the upcoming Journal of our Forum...
I think the "target audience" would be essentially two - first and foremost, the media. We have a good story, and upbeat story, a success story - here. It does not get anything like reasonable coverage (says one who still fumes about the big Economist cover story all but ignoring mobile [grumble-grumble])...
Then we here, at Forum Oxford, can definitely generate a very impressive, "comprehensive" and geographically very wide-reaching collection of case examples and success stories. I'm thinking here already in our thread we have Russell's Admob, Mark's Flirtomatic etc - and with just a bit of "recruiting" ha-ha, I'm sure we can have many others joining us like William Volk of MyNuMo etc.
So - I'd suggest first to Ajit - perhaps you can start the thread recruiting the volunteers to offer their company stories for this "celebration of success".
Then, for all of our members here of Forum Oxford - if you work for, or represent, or know of - any company with a good story of how success is made in the mobile web, then lets hear from you!
Ajit - you know some of the companies I work with or am closely associated with, I'll go and chase them to "gently force them" to "volunteer" for you ha-ha...
Another thought - I think if we approach the journalists with this story idea - I think we can greatly help sell the story, with a bit of statistics. No, I don't mean going "Tomi crazy" with the numbers (but I love statistics, numbers are my buddies?) - but a few key stats I think would help. Like I still read a couple of places this year that the mobile telecoms industry would be "reaching 2 billion" users soon. We all know we're past 2.5 billion already (does anyone happen to have a current accurate count by the way, should be near 2.6 shortly)? Like the numbers Russell posted originally, etc.
Some of my initial thoughts...
Tomi Ahonen / HatRat
Posted by ajit at 9:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Under the radar mobility conference ..
On November 16, there is an Under the radar mobility conference in San Francisco. While I am not attending it, there are a number of companies I know who are there(like admob ) and panelists like Oliver Starr. Worth a look if you can make it
Posted by ajit at 8:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
October 25, 2006
The Widget Widget Web: How can advertisers/marketers/brands use widgets?
As you would know from my previous posts, I am a fan of Widgets and I believe in the potential of Widgets (both web and mobile) to transform the web experience as we know it.
When I spoke at Ajaxworld , Adam Sah of Google gave a fascinating presentation about Widgets(which Google calls gadgets).
In that presentation (or I think in the Q/A after words), someone asked about the commercial/marketing potential of widgets.
As you can imagine this is a fascinating subject.
Since then, I have been out to find any instances where widgets were actually being used for advertising/marketing
One such example is the freewebs community(by co incidence - Zeki Mokhtarzada, Freewebs Co-Founder and CTO was also a speaker at Ajax world but I missed his talk because I was jet lagged :( - but I first heard about freewebs at Ajaxworld)
With 11 million web sites and an Alexa rating of 345, freewebs is one of the top 150 trafficked site in the world according to comscore
But my interest lies in: How can advertisers/marketers/brands on a community use widgets for marketing?
Freewebs tried this out with Sony to promote the film Zathura
Consider the options for an advertiser like Sony for a film like Zathura
The traditional option is ‘banner ads’ for a site like free webs.
But can more be done by Widgets?
Lets face it, no one like banner ads(my ad blocker kills them all!) ..
But widgets enable Sony to provide an application(which is essentially a game, content etc etc) related to the movie and more importantly allow users to interact with it.
For the 11 million web site owners of freewebs, the widget was ‘digital candy’ – something to embed within their web site.
Indeed 11,000 web sites took this up within six weeks(note unlike banner ads, widgets are not intrusive. The website creator has to ‘choose’ the widget in his site.) The widgets had been viewed 600,000 times and crucially, there are still over 15,000 widgets embedded on the site and still delivering content long AFTER the original movie has gone!
This is powerful stuff!
Thanks to Zeki Mokhtarzada, and Shervin Pishevar for their help with this blog
If you have any other instances of widgets being used for marketing, I am happy to include them!
Posted by ajit at 2:14 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
October 24, 2006
MOBILE user generated content and social networking worth 3.45 B this year
Over at forumoxford Dean Bubley of Disruptive analysis adds some more of his good insights to the previous post MOBILE user generated content and social networking worth 3.45 B this year
Interesting stuff, and a different "cut" of the market to that which I've seen before. One of the challenges in interpreting innovative data like this is to understand definition, and see if there is overlap with other adjacent segments.
There is a bit of background on this for Informa's report here and what appears to be a chunk of a 4-year old predecessor report (by Baskerville, now part of Informa) here
Reading between the lines, I suspect that much of the revenues are from two categories:
- Membership-based communities like CyWorld in Korea, although I'm not sure exactly how they separate revenues between fixed & mobile access, as I think that you get both for one price?
- SMS or WAP chat services. I really don't know much about this, but I suspect that it's popular in places like China & Philippines. Tomi - any idea what % of global SMS revenues could be described as chat?
To me, a lot of this makes good sense. Much of the early growth of the public Internet was also driven by what person-to-person messaging and what is now (rather cringeingly, I think) called "user generated content". Much of the original growth between AOL, Yahoo and peers was also around chat-rooms, message boards and the like, with services like IM & photo-sharing & webcams springing from those origins.
Posted by ajit at 8:28 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
MOBILE user generated content and social networking worth 3.45 B this year
MOBILE user generated content and social networking worth 3.45 B this year according to the Communities dominate brands blog
Tomi and Alan say ..
The fastest-growing type of digital service, by revenues, is social networking on mobile phones. Every CEO of a Flickr, YouTube, eBay, Skype, MySpace, Worlds of Warcraft, 2nd Life etc will need to immediately launch mobile extensions, variants, access methods, sharing systems and/or alerts to their online social networks, or else their more nimble rivals will shoot past them.
The full text of the article they refer to is below:
Source: The International herald tribune
A cellphone sideshow: YouTube-like content is going mobile By Doreen Carvajal International Herald Tribune
Published: October 22, 2006
PARIS Gather around, "towners," for a glimpse of Hot Dog Boy - "quickest frankfurter eater in town!" Or take a twist with the Pretzel Girl, "real-life office contortionist!" Feast your eyes as often as you want - the carnival is coming to your mobile phone.
Towners is the carnival term for a sideshow audience, but in the cellphone industry, the towners could be people who operators hope will create a powerful revenue stream by uploading amateur photographs and video clips for fellow customers to download and gawk at.
Google reaped international attention for its purchase of the top video- sharing Web site, YouTube, but phone companies in Europe, Asia and the Americas are also exploring the territory for "user generated content," tantalized by the prospects of making money with low-cost, effective entertainment.
Hot Dog Boy and Pretzel Girl are among some of the sensations that have emerged in the year since the mobile operator 3 created "See Me TV."
More than 100,000 amateur videos and photographs have been submitted, resulting in more than 12 million downloads, according to 3, which in keeping with this new form of entertainment calls itself a "mobile media company." But the medium has its limits. To reach all of 3's some 3.75 million customers, See Me TV acts are warned to avoid swearing, racist comments or making faux horror clips that are just "too gory."
Phone companies are working furiously to develop systems that will allow social networking or the sharing of material with a layer of human control to filter submissions. "We definitely think there is a long-term business model around it," said Daniel Winterbottom, a senior analyst with the research firm Informa Telecoms & Media. "Anytime you create a community it's a way of driving the up-selling of content."
With the growing popularity of sophisticated telephones, Informa forecasts that globally, operator revenue from such services will rise to more than $13 billion by 2011 from $3.45 billion this year. Asia is the most active region, with revenue from "mobile community services" of $1.8 billion this year, followed by Europe at $721 million, according to Informa. Leading the way are companies like Cyworld in South Korea, a creation of SK Telecom that allows cellphone users to share pictures, clips, music, ring tones and games.
Orange UK started a service this year that asks Britons to submit photos of themselves that could then be shared and voted on in a contest, "Buff or Rough." They recently increased the degree of difficulty by asking contestants to submit photos with Bollywood themes. The winning entrant, who was to be announced Monday, is Ishrat Jabeen Sharif, a 21-year-old newlywed. Her prize will be a bit part in a real Bollywood movie.
"It's cheap for the customers and it's cheap for us because the content is generated by them," said Alistair Johnston, director of multimedia and marketing for Orange in Britain. "We laugh at it, but we were staggered by the response, with more than one million votes per week. The average use is high, with people browsing through 50 pages and customers going in two or three times a day. The behavior is all about boredom busting."
Users pay differently for downloading material based on their monthly plans or "bundle" rates; one option is £1, or $1.88, for one day of unlimited use. So Johnston said it was difficult to calculate how much revenue the services are creating, but he said it was clear that "Buff and Rough" and chat forums were the "main motors" behind the company's growth.
Last week, FremantleMedia, a production company that is a division of the European broadcaster RTL Group, teamed up with the U.S. phone company Sprint to create a subscription mobile channel called Atomic Wedgie aimed at tantalizing young men with recycled video fare like "Baywatch Babes." The venture is not ready for video sharing because, according to Olivier Gers, general manager of FremantleMedia CQ Licensing Worldwide, "we're still trying to learn what the medium is about and what people like and don't like."
Many operators are asking start-ups to manage mobile video applications. Gilles Babinet, a founder of Musiwave in Paris, which advises operators about how to sell music tracks, has created another company, Eyeka, that provides mobile video and image service along with vetting controls. The biggest concern is posting information "that involves any legal issues or porn stuff or violence," Babinet said. "Telcos won't accept that."
Posted by ajit at 2:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
October 23, 2006
Why do people buy Mobile adult content?
Why do people buy Mobile adult content?
I have always wondered about that question. Note that the operative word here being 'mobile'.
Why buy 'mobile' adult content when 'web' adult content gives a ahem .. 'superior' user experience!
But mobile adult content is definitely big business as discussed by Julia Dimambro of mobile adult content site 'Cherrysauce' in her interview with Forbes magazine where she says that her site gets a million hits a month !
Strategy analytics predict that the mobile adult content market would reach $5 billion in 5 years
A few weeks ago, I had the pleasure of meeting the charming Julia as she came to London to attend the Mobile entertainment awards (which her company Cherrysauce subsequently won )
So, I asked Julia the same question: Why is this market so 'hot'(excuse the pun) ?
Her rather interesting response has to do with the mobile device being available at the point of 'inspiration' - something which many including me have been talking about .. (just that I did not expect it to apply in this situation).
Typically, a guy(nothing to do with gender neutral writing here - it's almost always male customers) thinks of sex every seven seconds ..
While that may be an urban myth .. its still a number of times a day for a large portion of the (male) population ..
And which other device do they have handy at all times whenever they are thus 'inspired'? and how long does it take to download a video clip, a sexy screen saver or a naughty ringtone?
Well .. maybe there is a market there after all ..
PS: former Baywatch star Carmen electra claims she thinks of sex every 20 seconds .. maybe there is a bigger market here considering the female audience :)
I think Julia is a pioneer in a male oriented industry and I think of her as the Christine Hefner
of the mobile adult content industry.
Julia's web site is (note this is an adult site - so don't click on this
link if you are offended by adult content) Cherrysauce
Posted by ajit at 11:09 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
The fiftieth carnival of the mobilists is at mobhappy ..
The fiftieth carnival of the mobilists is at mobhappy - apt since Russell and Carlo started the carnival at mobhappy not so long ago! Great read as usual!
Posted by ajit at 9:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
October 22, 2006
Why has the mobile entertainment industry suddenly discovered user generated content?
With the growth of mobile content around the year 2000, a group of companies emerged focussing on mobile entertainment content.
Within the value chain they sit between a rock and a hard place i.e. between the Mobile Network Operator and the content owner. They usually provide one or more functions such as a Brand/customer interface, a billing system, content aggregation etc.
Typically, mobile entertainment companies have always worked (profitably) with two main content types i.e. ringtones and single player Java/Brew games.
This has been a profitable market and the market for mobile entertainment content will continue to grow significantly.
There is little doubt about that.
Question is: what role will these companies play in a new world?
As the industry matures, these are turbulent times for this section of the value chain and perhaps a shakeout is looming.
Ringtones are maturing to truetones and the balance of power shifts to the content owner(and so does the revenue).
Games, meanwhile have not yet shown wider appeal (such as multiplayer games) and we see some market consolidation with pure games companies like Iomo and Macrospace in the UK being acquired by bigger players.
Driven market necessity, mobile entertainment companies may be forced to change their strategies. Mobile Social networking / Mobile user generated content / Mobile Web 2.0 may be the logical path.
Mobile entertainment companies are not content owners nor are they mobile network operators. And this makes them very vulnerable.
They have tried to change their position in the value chain by formulating different strategies; for instance entering games/content creation. In doing so, they will conflict with existing partners who are also trying to consolidate their position in the value chain (witness both Orange and Vodafone dropping carphone warehouse on grounds of cost cutting measures )
As they seek to embrace the new world of user generated content to balance the decline in their traditional markets(ringtones and games), they are entering a market segment they are not usually familiar with. This explains a raft of announcements tending to some form of ‘social networking’.
This is unusual because with their focus on packaged mobile entertainment content like ringtones and games(which has been profitable so far), mobile entertainment companies are typically not known for working with user generated content/social networking.
But the shifting tectonic plates of the value chain may change all that.
Indeed the cross operator connectivity of mobile entertainment companies gives them an advantage when working with user generated content and the companies who play it right this time, have much to gain.
Conversely, there will be many losers – the mortality arising from a failure to execute a mobile social networking strategy and / or a larger player like a mobile network operator or a content owner executing a better strategy.
Already, there have been some early movers. Dada (mobile blogging) and monstermob (create your own space) have announced community initiatives. Mobile Streams have launched a community called FunkySexyCool
But this will be an increasingly ruthless battleground with conflicting and changing alliances.
Mobile Streams for instance has launched its community with three Mobile network operators(Vodafone Germany, Mobilkom (A1) Austria and Sunrise Switzerland.) – and there is no reason why these operators may not want to launch social networking initiatives of their own(if they have not done so already!)
With cross operator connectivity and powerful billing systems (for example Mobile Streams Vuesia and Motricity’s Fuel , mobile entertainment companies are at an advantage when it comes to user generated content
Indeed the biggest opportunity seems to be to grow a mobile community and hope to be acquired by a web player like MySpace(or at least partner with them)
Its too early to say who the winners will be but there are likely to be many losers.
Indeed the critical aspect of user generated content led us to cover it in so much detail in mobile web 2.0 .
Almost any player in the mobile data value chain could embrace a successful mobile social networking/mobile user generated content strategy.
So .. the race is on! Watch this space!
Image source: easyringtonemaker
Posted by ajit at 11:54 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
October 21, 2006
Happy Diwali ..
Wishing you all a Happy Diwali!
Image source: http://events.stanford.edu/events/13/1301/diwali%20diya.jpg
Posted by ajit at 5:16 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
October 20, 2006
WICD mobile: MashLite?
By Dr Paddy Byers
C Enrique Ortiz pointed out the latest W3C mobile content initiative, WICD Mobile 1.0. It is based on the generic Web Integration Compound Document (WICD) specification, which is a way of combining content in multiple disparate markup languages (eg SVG and XHTML) into a single entity that can be navigated seamlessly and in which scripts in each part can (in principle) gain access to the DOM of the containing or contained entities. The WICD Mobile variant is essentially just a profile, demanding certain XHTML and CSS capabilities, certain SVG capabilities, and certain DOM and scripting capabilities including XMLHttpRequest.
This specification simultaneously overcomes several problems that are faced when trying to implement applications or services using the constituent technologies standalone. Until now, SVG (Tiny) on mobile had in practice been limited to an asset format (ie a way of delivering scalable images as an alternative to bitmaps) because limited scriptability meant that it could not support application development in its own right. Similarly, a vector graphics capability overcomes the drawing limitations of XHTML and CSS, especially when creating content that needs to adapt to multiple screen sizes. WICD mobile, in principle, is therefore able to combine the visual richness and interactivity of Flash Lite and the asynchronous connectedness of AJAX, all based on the browser delivery platform. It could be said that this is the W3C’s answer to Flash Lite as a mobile application development platform; the ultimate environment for mobile web apps and mashups.
So, what are WICD's strengths and weaknesses relative to Flash Lite and will it succeed?
The key technical difference is that there is no timeline and no frame-based animation as there are in Flash. Instead, apps would essentially work the same way as AJAX scripted XHTML apps, being primarily event-driven through input events and network events, except that there is a richer set of rendering tools available and support for scripting of composite vector graphic entities. Flash components (supported in Flash Lite 2.0) would be essentially analogous to WICD-M widgets.
WICD-M potentially supports better integration with platform features – eg leveraging platform (and hence hardware-accelerated) multimedia systems instead of proprietary formats as with Flash; and the embedding of arbitrary scriptable entities within a DOM in principle allows platform services to be accessed in a more scalable way than is possible with the frozen and inflexible Flash Lite platform APIs.
Flash Lite already has a head-start, and its deployment onto the latest Nokia phones has stimulated a development community to explore its potential; WICD mobile, on the other hand, isn’t supported by any mobile browser yet, and even rich XHTML (including competent DOM, javascript and XMLHttpRequest) has very limited support.
However, the biggest advantage that Flash has is the content development toolchain and its associated development community. Powerful tools are the key to unlocking the potential of the vector graphics environment – and this is the true power of what Adobe is bringing to mobile with Flash Lite. There is simply nothing comparable for WICD mobile; until there is, its progress in attracting content developers is likely to be very slow, and this will inevitably impact its proliferation into mobile.
Posted by ajit at 11:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Should you be thinking of Vegas on your next flight to Tokyo or Seoul?
As many of you know from my previous blogs/posts, I have visited /spoken in Korea a number of times and in general am favourable to what is happening there. Same applies to Japan – though I have never been there.
However, on my last visit to the USA, I had an interesting experience.
I was discussing the MySpace Helio venture with an insightful entrepreneur in Santa Clara when he mentioned the phrase (which I had not heard of till then) :
What happens in Vegas – stays in Vegas
He then went on to explain (what is perhaps a phrase now deeply entrenched in the American psyche) – about and ad campaign with the same strap line.
It apparently shows a number of ‘sober/ordinary’ folk – (if that’s the right word to use here) - , going to Vegas/having a wild time and then coming back home to their ordinary selves
The strap line says ‘what happens in Vegas – remains in Vegas’ i.e. all the fun you have had remains there!!
The phrase, it seems, is widely used to indicate things which are popular at a particular location but never seem to expand beyond that location.
For example: in case of Billy Crystal.Having hosted the Oscars in 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1997, 1998, 2000 and 2004 – that’s what people associate him with . In 2006, he wisely turned the ‘opportunity’ down but was it too late? Had he been vegassed? i.e. he can't break out of the niche(forever pigeonholed?)
Now, my friend mentioned specifically in context of the MySpace/Helio deal (which involves the Korean operator SK Telecom),
‘What happens (technologically - especially in context to IT/Telecoms) in Korea/Japan – stays in Korea/Japan!’
At first, I was proposing the counter argument.
But then I think perhaps he may well be right!
It’s harsh, but could it be true?
(Note this argument applies to software, telecoms and IT – and not standalone devices etc)
Today, in Europe, we have high levels of Broadband, WiFi and 3G.
More importantly, we have relatively open standards.
Thus, much of the innovation we see in Japan and Korea may well arise EARLY due to closed proprietary standards BUT will stay there for ever (la – Las Vegas).
Hence, other countries like the UK may get them a bit later for instance train ticketing via SMS.
Other than DMB from Korea, I don’t see much on the horizon. Even there, I saw a demo of (rival technology) DVB-H at the Symbian smartphone show at the Texas Instruments stand and that seems to almost as good as the video I have seen in Korea.
So, considering translations, cultural factors, walled gardens, closed /proprietary standards in Japan and Korea: I have to agree that he has a point
What do you think?
Korea and Japan may be great places to see what is happening but …
Should you be thinking of Vegas on your next flight to Tokyo or Seoul?
(PS: my views on Helio is a whole different post! Suffice to say: I tend to agree with Om Malik and also my friend’s assessment)
Posted by ajit at 10:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
October 19, 2006
Sell Phones: What will make Mobile Advertising tick?
A fantastic article from Chetan Sharma .. enjoy! rgds Ajit
Introduction
Mobile Marketing and Advertising is the new “it” in the industry. All the three recent industry shows (MES, MECCA, and CTIA)[1] in LA last month were buzzing with the potential of mobile advertising. For carriers, who until now had not paid attention to this evolving sub-segment, have started to organize internally to be the clearinghouse and magnet for agencies and advertisers. The advertising agencies and big brands have started to throw MDF[2] dollars at experimenting with this new medium called mobile. Analysts have started predicting billion dollar markets by 2010[3]. The ecosystem has also started shifting and new alliances are being probed and tested for positioning. Is mobile marketing going to be another over-hyped industry segment or will it actually help generate revenue, drive exits for VC investments, enhance content value-proposition, and most importantly, deliver value to the consumers? This article discusses the elements that are critical for the long-term viability of the mobile advertising and marketing industry.
How big is the market?
To get a grip on the potential market in the US or Western Europe, we take a look at Japan[4] as the harbinger of what’s to come in this space. According to Dentsu, mobile advertising revenues for 2006 will be approximately $373M or close to $3.8 per subscriber (for the year). By 2009, this number is likely to scale to over $6/sub/year[5] (Figure 1). According to InfoPlant, almost 60% of the Japanese consumers use mobile coupons and discounts more than once a month[6]. The US market is just starting to get organized and move from SMS marketing to mobile/local search marketing, interstitials, in-content ads, banner ads, etc. In 2006, US will do less than $1/sub (for the year) in mobile advertising revenues, bulk of which will be SMS marketing. Europe is also slowly waking up to the possibilities around mobile ads and has been experimenting with some clever business models such as Operator “3” subsidizing usage and phones in lieu of advertising on the phone. These models are also being offered in the microenvironments of downloadables, subscriptions, video streams, etc.
Figure 1. Mobile Advertising Revenue Growth in Japan[7]
It is apparent that due to the availability of context, immediacy, and personalization, mobile has significant advantages over the other channels as an advertising medium.
The potential is clearly there but how long will it take to reach a critical mass? How many years before the industry cracks $1B? $10B? For reference, it took 2, 4, and 5 years for Broadcast, Internet, and Cable advertising respectively, to cross the $1B revenue mark; 5 years for Internet and Broadcast advertising to cross the $5B mark. None of them crossed $10B mark in their first 10 years of existence[8] (Figure 2). Will mobile be any different? Instead of being a blip in the advertising revenue stream, when will the mobile segment start rivaling revenues generated from advertising on Internet, Radio, Newspaper, and TV? Can it? If yes, what does it take to get there? What technical, business, and legal issues need to be addressed before agencies have dedicated staff to tackle mobile advertising and real dollars instead of MDFs as part of the budgeting exercise? Finally, who will be the dominant players controlling the ecosystem five years from now?
Figure 2. Annual Ad revenue growth in broadcast, cable, internet in the first 11 years[9]
Technology Requirements
First, let’s discuss the technology piece. As we have seen in Japan and Korea, higher processing power handsets and 3G pipes play a significant role in the adoption of rich advertising content. If an ad is non-intrusive, delivers value, and is relevant to the consumer; there will be a higher propensity of adoption vs. when after 45 seconds of “connecting to server” screen, an ad rears its ugly head to slam in the face of an already frustrated consumer. In the US, 3G is being adopted fairly aggressively and when Cingular picks up pace with its WCDMA/HSDPA deployment, growth is going to accelerate into 2007. By 2008, 3G penetration will reach over 25%[10]. Adoption of Smartphones is also increasing (Figure 3). With Motorola’s Q and RIM’s Pearl, price point is getting near mass-market consumption levels. By next year, we will start seeing $100 smartphones. In the US, 25% of the converged devices sold during the first half of 2006 were 3G devices. This is up from just 3% in 2005. User interfaces are also getting better. UIOne, MYDAS, Flash, Screen 3, 1mm, and other proprietary solutions are extending the possibilities. In terms of options, there are different channels available – SMS, MMS, Search, Browser, Games, Video/TV, etc. each with its pros and cons and maturity level in the market (Figure 4 and 5).
Figure 3. Expected lifecycle of various key technologies in the US[11]
Figure 4. Mobile advertising channels[12]
Most of the effective mobile advertising and marketing will be search driven – whether it is based on declared intent from the user or passive impressions based on user’s context, history, and preferences. Google is an example of the former while Amazon is a brilliant case study of the latter. Local search and advertisements will be a significant part of the equation. As Mark Anderson, CEO of Strategic News Service[13] recently quipped in his recent column “Searching for Transactions”, “Search isn’t about advertising, it’s about shopping, which is why the advertisers have to be there”. It is truer in the mobile environment. Astute advertisers realize the proximity and intimacy of the medium and already conjuring up clever ways to engage the consumer. Service providers with good “mobile” search engine technology will be at competitive advantage as they build a strategic framework to address the bigger opportunity.
Figure 5. Consumption of various services in key western nations[14]
For mobile advertising to be successful, one needs “reach”, “purity”, and “analytics” (Figure 6). Reach is how many “real” customers do you have? Purity is the “quality” of information on the customers. Name and address just don’t cut it. Analytics is matching users interests – implicit and explicit, context, preferences, network and handset conditions to ads and promotions in real-time. Not just bucketing a user in a group and giving them a number but understanding the user in every way possible and customizing every single interaction, every single push, every single imprint, and every single promotion to the finest degree possible.
So, who has the reach? Clearly, carriers with millions of billing relationships currently have the tightest relationship with the end-customer in this ecosystem and has the most relevant transactions to build a good customer profile fingerprint[15]. On the other end are the Internet brands like Yahoo, Google, and MSN with over half a billion unique visitors each. Other important players include giants like Amazon, EBay, Myspace, Youtube, Skype, AOL, and Paypal.
Figure 6. Mobile Advertising and Marketing Framework
The internet brands have good reach but limited purity. Purity is about good profile data. The customer profile information that Internet players have assimilated doesn’t really always translate well into a view of a customer’s interests and preferences. They can and will build a direct relationship with consumer but it will take time and has to overcome some technical and business hurdles.
Finally, one needs the analytical framework. The goal of the framework is to capture the behavior and interests of the user while they are browsing, shopping, interacting with a variety of applications and content, and even simply calling 1-800-Flowers. This knowledge mixed with the explicit profile helps enable build characteristics and traits of users on a mass scale. Once the segmentation and understanding of the user is fine-tuned, the gathered knowledge can be continuously applied to enhance the user experience while they are interacting with their mobile phone by targeted promotions and offers sent to the user, and mobile advertising can be enabled such that it adds value to the user experience.
In terms of platforms, there has been a lot of activity on building backends, but little progress on the front-end where it matters the most. What is absolutely needed is an easily accessible control framework for “permission advertising/marketing” so that the user can selectively or globally switch-on or off the types of ads/promotions they would like to entertain and when. We need a SIP/Presence like capability that works across all apps and services and is as universally accessible through open APIs. Mobile advertising is not just all visual either. It can interact with the customer while they are on hold or support free 411 or premium services or can be integrated with podcasts, essentially finding clever ways to provide ad/promotion content in exchange for something that provides value to the end-user. The context engine combines various inputs and uses location and other contextual information to package information before it is pulled or pushed to the consumer. This is true for all the application areas such as portals, storefronts, local search, mobile search, off-net access, and other applications.
The value chain
As the convergence continues, the mobile ecosystem keeps shifting. Currently, the mobile advertising chain consists of the following main segments (Figure 7):
Campaign Sponsors American Express, P&G, GE, Toyota, etc.
(Advertisers)
Marketing Agencies Ogilvy, Universal, Carat, Mindshare, etc.
Enablers ThirdScreenMedia, Admob, MobiTV, Enpocket, Rhythm NewMedia, Medio, ActionEngine, Screen Tonic, Google,
Yahoo, Fast, Tellme, MSN, Infospace, etc.
Content Provider CNN, Disney, Yahoo, YouTube, ESPN, Mixxer, Intercasting, etc.
Aggregators mBlox, Infospace, WSC, etc.
Carriers Sprint Nextel, NTT DoCoMo, Vodafone, Telefonica, Verizon, Cingular, Virgin, amp’D, Clearwire, etc.
Consumers You and Me
For each of the participants, there are some inherent benefits, specifically,
For the carrier, it is an excellent way to build loyalty and “stickiness”. It is also a way to take the saturated levels of data users to another level by subsidizing premium content and even transport costs by advertising thus lowering the barrier-to-usage. However, the carriers need to balance the influx of users and data traffic with the potential for additional revenues. Spectrum is still limited and it needs to be used wisely in any strategic scenario.
For the user, relevant (opt-in) and targeted advertising and promotions deliver value. In all recent surveys, the number of users willing to pay for the Mobile TV service is a very small fraction of the number of users who want to use the service. With advertising, they can afford more and start enjoying the full capabilities of their handsets.
Figure 7. The emerging mobile advertising value chain[16]
From an advertiser’s point of view, mobile provides unparalleled reach and a reliable and fairly accurate measurement tool. The ad/promotion system should have the capability to create promotions at national and local level (city, zip code, location) and everything in between. The system needs to support extensive querying and segmentation capability to design sophisticated campaigns for e.g.
· Give me users who are most likely to purchase a new ringtone from Usher.
· Give me users who are Pop aficionados, have coke as their favorite cola, wear Nike shoes, single, living in large metro areas on the east coast, income level above $120K, have ARM11 or higher devices, and have responded to at least 50% of ads in the past 2 months.
For evaluating the mobile medium, advertisers are using the same criterion as they have used for other channels, namely:
Reach – how big is the audience esp., unique and regular visitors?
Purity – how good is the user profile information?
Frequency – how often is the audience exposed to advertisements?
Performance – what’s the quantitative measurement criterion to determine effectiveness of the campaigns?
Advertising inventory – what’s the availability of ad slots on premium properties?
Advertising units – what’s the size and shape of advertising content?
Tools – what kind of tools are available to run the lifecycle of a campaign? How does mobile advertising fit into the larger advertising budgets and planning?
For content providers, both big and small, it offers an ability to go direct in addition to working with carriers on revenue-sharing arrangements. If a content-providers has traction and user profile data for a few million loyal subscribers, advertisers would love to talk to you. But, as we discussed earlier, it comes down to reach and purity of the subscriber base.
Risks
While the potential is immense, there are also significant risks and potential challenges that need to be tackled before the industry evolves into a vibrant advertising medium. The prominent amongst them are privacy and data security. Once you start mining user data, significant profile information can be developed. Then how that information is used and by whom becomes an issue, and a significant legal minefield. In addition, if the industry doesn’t want regulators to get involved, the security policies and procedures need to be in place to protect the data from theft or misuse. Next, the advertising ecosystem needs to be fostered so that everyone in the value chain benefits relative to their contribution.
Some people have compared the advertising ecosystem to lions (advertisers) and antelopes (consumers), where you need enough antelopes to attract the lions but not enough lions that you scare away the antelopes[17]. As Omar indicates in his article, advertising needs to align the interests of different players in the value chain to keep plenty of antelopes around the watering hole. As we have seen time and time again, if the ecosystem is healthy, segment thrives otherwise it is relegated to slow growth or the interest dissipates altogether. There needs to be a good balance of power between advertisers, content providers, carriers, and consumers.
Value-chain dynamics
It is clear that mobile advertising and marketing has big potential if certain technical and business requirements are met and industry strives to take into account the user considerations that matter the most. But, which players will dominate and control the ecosystem. Without a doubt, carriers have the purest profile information available, but can they execute their strategies? Well, they have approximately 3-4 year window. Once 3G and Smartphone penetration curves collide and pass 20-30%, if the carriers haven’t built a good mousetrap (value proposition) by then, all bets are off. Different dominant players will start to emerge, as it will get easier for Internet and traditional brands to build direct relationships with a good proportion of the subscriber base. It is also possible that in some geographies carriers and brands will work closely to establish a tight service offering and equitable revenue split. Role of savvy brands like P&G who are generally ahead of the curve on most technology trends is going to be important. Brands and service providers who are able to integrate user experience across channels will benefit the most (Microsoft will be a strong player in cross-channel advertising). There is real value in understanding user behavior on the Internet and mobile and cross-leverage in a) building a solid profile fingerprint and b) using it to push content.
Then, there is the whole world of off-net advertising and marketing. Carriers are increasingly playing a lesser role in that segment. But the market is very fragmented amongst hundreds of content providers and mini-aggregators. They only have a piece of the (reach and purity) puzzle and hence the analytics they apply will be limited in scope. Could they collaborate to work to leverage each-others strength? Certainly. Can the user profile information be available as a web service (with user’s permission of course)? Sure. Can carriers start to offer that to trusted providers in exchange for revenue-share? Possibly. There is clearly enough room for experimentation in both technology and business models arena of this nascent industry segment. Finally, ads and promotions should be “super-distribution-friendly” (across carriers and devices) meaning -- treat ads and promotions like content that can be passed around “easily.”
Conclusion
It is quite clear from the industry trends that mobile industry (especially in the US) is moving from an emerging state to a more interactive and immersive application and services environment. By 2011, advertising industry will be close to $600B. Can mobile start to increase its revenue share from its current levels of less than 0.2% to 2-5% by then? Since this medium can provide context, immediacy, and personalization, the answer is yes. However, there are technical, business, and legal hurdles to be crossed before the industry becomes a thriving institution.
Until then, stay tuned to our commentary on the shifts and turns in the ecosystem.
Acknowledgements
My thanks to Sunil Jain, Victor Melfi, Amar Patel, Anne Baker, Sarla Sharma, Shawn Conahan, and Subhadeep Chatterjee for their valuable assistance with the article.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] Coverage of fall shows (2006) is available here.
[2] Market Development Funds (MDF) are typically allocated for new media activities.
[3] In a recent report, Informa estimated that the mobile advertising market is going to be worth $871m this year, and will jump to $11.35bn in 2011.
[4] Japan is the second largest advertising market in the world behind US. Japan is also the first country to exceed 50% 3G penetration earlier this year.
[5] Source: Dentsu, Chetan Sharma Consulting
[6] Source: http://www.wirelesswatch.jp//modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=2021
[7] Source: Dentsu, Chetan Sharma Consulting
[8] Year 1: 1995 for Internet, 1980 for Cable, and 1945 for Broadcast TV (Source: IAB).
[9] Source: IAB Internet Advertising Revenue Report, 2005 Full Year Results, PriceWaterhouseCoopers
[10] For a more exhaustive discussion on 3G, please visit “3G : Hitting the Mass Market”
[11] Source: Chetan Sharma Consulting
[12] Source: Chetan Sharma Consulting, Q206
[13] http://www.tapsns.com
[14] Data Source: M:Metrics, Aug 2006
[15] While carriers have the most pertinent data on the users, it resides in disparate locations and very few have realized the long-term value of such an exercise.
[16] Source: Chetan Sharma Consulting
[17] “Lions and Antelopes in the Advertising Ecosystem”, Omar Tawakol, Revenue Science
Pdf : HERE
Posted by ajit at 11:02 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Pls vote for us: we have been nominated for fierce favourites
We have been nominated for Top 20 Fierce favourites blogs
Please vote for us using this link
Thanks for your continued support
Posted by ajit at 8:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
October 18, 2006
Symbian smartphone show
I had a great time at the Symbian smartphone show today. I spoke about Mobile Web 2.0 and Mobile Ajax at the social media seminar in the afternoon. After communicating on email, it was great to meet David Wood – Symbian VP for the first time. Many thanks to David Wood and Clare Williamson(Informa) for all the help and organization today. It was nice of David to say good things about our book Mobile Web 2.0!
It was also interesting to see two companies who are doing some interesting work in the mobile web 2.0 space : Lampdesk and Shozu. I shall be blogging about these soon
Finally, it was great to meet fellow Web 2.0 workgroup member Oliver Starr of Mobile Crunch and also Rafe Blandford of allaboutsymbian, Caroline Lewko of WIP Connector
If you attended either my talk in the afternoon or my panel discussion, please email me to keep in touch at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com
Posted by ajit at 8:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Carnival of the mobilists No 49
The carnival of the mobilists No 49 is at Mobile opportunity(Michael Mace's blog. Michael has been kind enough to include my post about The mathematics of web 2.0 (although it is not 'mobile'). Thanks Michael.
Posted by ajit at 8:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
October 17, 2006
Don’t miss the mobile 2.0 event in San Francisco - Nov 6
The mobile 2.0 event in San Francisco promises to be a great event. There are many people who I know and respect who will be there. Tony Fish (co-author of Mobile Web 2.0) will be speaking. So will my good friend (and very clued on person ) Judy Breck. Oliver Starr from mobilecrunch is also speaking as is Charles McCathieNevile from Opera. Dr Paddy Byers who blogs on OpenGardens will also be there as will Rudy De Waele
All organised by the ever efficient Daniel Appelquist who founded and co-organises MoMo london
The other speakers are great too
So, if you can be there .. say Hi to all these wonderful people
Posted by ajit at 11:46 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Mobile Ajax: The architecture of Mobile Ajax applications ..
I met Jesse James Garrett when we both spoke at Ajax world expo (thanks to Jeremy Geelan - Group publisher of sys-con media for the intro!).
No prizes for guessing that we were discussing Ajax – more specifically Mobile Ajax.
I have talked about Mobile Ajax before on my blog and as many of you know, I believe in the power of Mobile Ajax to transform mobile data applications and to overcome some of the limitations we see today in the industry. Specifically so, in context of full browser applications i.e. browsers following the Web standards as closely as possible.
I mentioned to Jesse that I would be happy to explore Mobile Ajax in my blog and Jesse was kind enough to agree to comment on what we find.
So, watch out for a series of Mobile Ajax blogs
Most people take a very simplistic view of Mobile Ajax – generally leaning towards ‘Google maps on Mobile devices’.
That can be best described as ‘limited thinking’
Architecturally, what I am discussing is a bit more complex. This recent wired article about Information factories/ Internet cloud architecture or the dawn of the petabyte era provides a hint.
It’s a bit verbose but the synpopsis is
The desktop is dead. Welcome to the Internet cloud, where massive facilities across the globe will store all the data you'll ever use.
I believe that the combination of cloud arcthiecture(driven by cheap storage) coupled with the capacity of Mobile Ajax has a lot of potential to create rich applications (by both carriers and Service providers).
The only company I know at the moment who is doing something similar in this space is Soonr. I would be interested to hear from you if you are doing some interesting work on Mobile Ajax
Watch this space!
Posted by ajit at 10:51 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
October 15, 2006
Mobile Web 2.0 - the book : A synopsis and approach
In the last two weeks, I have had the opportunity of meeting many readers of Mobile Web 2.0 in the States.
In general, when people see the book, the first impression is : Its 335 pages! That’s a lot to write (and read!) on a relatively new topic
So, why was it written in the way it was?
Today, with the acquisition of YouTube by Google, Web 2.0 is truly on everyone's radar.
But not so long ago, that was not the case!
When we (Ajit and Tony) first started writing about Web 2.0 and Mobile Web 2.0, Web 2.0 was still deemed a buzzword (to put it mildly!) . Thus, from our point of view, it was necessary to write a truly comprehensive work if we were to be avoid being labelled as piggybacking on a buzzword.
For us, Web 2.0 was great! It provided us a lexicon to understand the evolution of the Web from the Dot Com era to a new, user generated content, era.
Essentially, our approach has been to build on the foundation of Web 2.0 laid by Tim O Reilly in the seminal document What is Web 2.0 and then extend it to restricted devices (mobile devices)
In retrospect, this was not an easy task.
Extending Web 2.0 across mobile devices is not as simple as 'browsing the Web from mobile devices'. You have to consider the unique elements of mobility (for example a restricted user interface) and other factors.
You also have to extend the idea of user generated content to mobile devices. In other words, when we are talking of Mobile Web 2.0, we are talking of applications tending to user generated content(and not traditional applications like games and ringtones)
All this took 335 pages because we assumed no knowledge of the Mobile data industry. This means we have to cover Web 2.0 from first principles, Define what is Mobile Web 2.0 , discuss the unique factors pertaining to mobility and finally use all of this to discuss new business models for the Mobile data industry.
Thus, the book comprises three parts:
Part One : Covering Web 20, The seven principles of Mobile Web 2.0 and user generated content
Part Two : Factors unique to mobile devices including Mobile TV, mcommerce, IMS etc and
Part Three : Covering business models
Similar to the seven principles of Web 2.0, we also captured Mobile Web 2.0 in seven principles
These include:
1) Mobile content and the changing balance of power (The power of user generated content)
2) I am not a number, I am a tag (The impact on the telecoms industry's management of numbers)
3) Multilingual mobile access (The power of mobile phone to transform societies .. )
4) Mobile web 2.0 and Digital convergence (Mobile web 2.0 is a driver to digital convergence)
5) The disruptive power of Ajax and mobile widgets
6) Location based services and Mobile web 2.0 (LBS has never quite taken off. Will mobile web 2.0 help?)
7) Mobile search : Much more than Google on your mobile phone.
That’s the approach in a nutshell!
Any comments welcome and many thanks to readers who have blogged about the book and given us feedback
Posted by ajit at 11:30 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
October 14, 2006
The mathematics of Web 2.0: Why don’t ALL social networking sites experience phenomenal growth?
When I spoke at Santa Clara/ Stanford last week, I had the pleasure of meeting Dr John Yu – a serial entrepreneur and VC in the valley. The original inspiration for this post came from John.
This is an ambitious post but I also acknowledge that I need some help especially in getting some numbers / stats.
The key observation is : Social networking sites like MySpace and YouTube are growing at rates faster than the growth of the Internet itself – but not ALL social networking sites are showing very high rates of growth.
How can we explain that?
In this post, we consider three things
a) The growth rate of the Internet
b) The growth rate of the top web 2.0 sites
c) The reasons why not all social networking sites show the same effect
Let us first consider the Internet
The growth rate of the Internet is governed by Metcalfe’s law (also called as the network effect ) which states that the utility/value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of users in the network. Mathematically, it is a 2nd order polynomial.
As per Metcalfe’s law, beyond a certain level of members(called critical mass), the network effect kicks in. At critical mass, the value obtained from the good / service is greater than the price paid for the service.
Thus, the userbase determines the value(but not its rate of growth).
A fax machine can be used to illustrate this concept. A single fax machine is not useful but the value of the fax service changes as more people start to use fax machines. The Internet operates according to this principle
Now, let us the new Web 2.0 sites such as MySpace or YouTube
In this case, the growth rate is higher than the network effect. This growth rate is exponential.
It can be compared to the growth of bacteria in a culture(as opposed to the proliferation of fax machines)
For example, suppose we start with a population of cells such that it’s growth rate at any time is proportional to its size. The number of cells after t years will then be at (an exponential function) for some a>0.
So, we are saying that some Web 2.0 sites are showing exponential rates of growth(in this case I am using the term ‘exponential’ mathematically and not in it’s conversational sense. I am also saying that it contrasts to the Network effect – which is itself a high growth phenomenon but at a much smaller rate than exponential growth)
For example, Wikipedia (a Web 2.0 site) believes that it’s growth rate is exponential
As per above link ..
One common model of Wikipedia growth is that:
more content leads to more traffic
which leads to more edits
which generate more content
Thus, the average rate of growth should be proportional to the size of the Wikipedia, that is, the growth should be exponential
Let us consider MySpace
Here is a hypothesis
MySpace is primarily driven by music/bands. Thus, the effect driving MySpace is that of bands inviting their respective fan bases. Also, it percolates in the site itself when there are many groups around a single theme(283821 ‘music’ groups for example)
In contrast, the network effect is of the order of two i.e. one on one (pairwise) interaction (i.e. square of the number of users) in comparison to ‘set wise’ interaction we see in Web 2.0 sites(for instance between music groups)
Let us consider some numbers. As at March 2006, MySpace had 67 million members since its launch in 2004. It was then growing by an average of 250,000 new members daily
Just about a year ago, as at July 2005, MySpace had 22 million members and a growth rate of 2 million members a month.
This means at July 2005, MySpace was growing at 66,666 members per day (at a membership of 22 million) BUT in March 2006, it was growing at 250,000 members a day (at a membership of 67 million members)
Note that: 66,666 = 2million members per month divided by 30 days per month
So, in 2005 it was growing daily at 0.30% each day and in March 2006, it was growing at 0.37% of its membership
These figures indicate a growth rate which increases as membership increases.
Having said that, I don’t know if qualifies as exponential. Which is where I need help with better (maybe more granular figures) and a cross check on my calculations/thinking.
Similarly, the ‘unit’ of growth of facebook is a ‘college’ and potentially this may also lead to interaction by such related groups
To really prove this theory we need a interim numbers(which I don’t have and I seek any help from anyone who does – anyone from MySpace/Facebook reading this? :)
Truly exponential growth would appear as per the graph as above(source: wikipedia ) and those being derieved as per the principles of exponential growth
Some more numbers to point to a phenomenal growth (year on year – albeit UK specific)
As at July 2006, Wikipedia in the UK had 6.5 million visitors (up 253 percent versus year ago), MySpace.com (up 467 percent to 5.2 million visitors), Piczo.com (up 393 percent to 4 million visitors), YouTube.com (3.9 million visitors), and Bebo.com (up 328 percent to 3.9 million visitors).
In a nutshell, participation leads to exponential growth. More the users, the more pictures to share, videos to upload and comments to add. Thus, the growth rate of a Web 2.0 site is proportional to the number of members in the site at a point in time(the classic definition of exponential growth – la bacteria in a culture)
This leads us to the final part of the question ..
Why does not the same exponential rate of growth occur in sites such as Ryze, ecademy or Linkedin ?
After all, they have been there for longer .. so logically they should show more members.
Is it because they are not ‘free’, they are ‘business’ , they are not ‘fun’( i.e. less social – more business)?
It may be all of the above .. but I think it is more due to a severely limited architecture of participation.
Typically, such sites have a membership – often a tiered membership and / or a paid membership.
There is nothing wrong in that except that it cripples the architecture of participation (the very thing driving the exponential growth of Web 2.0 sites). The effect of tiered membership/ restricted membership is : the whole is split up into components thus reducing the number of potential interactions between members i.e. How can users participate? with whom?
In any case, interaction is never potentially with ALL members’ (which it is in case of Web 2.0 sites) leading to the split
Again, we can explain this using some mathematics(any comments welcome on this section)
According to the principles of permutations and combinations : if you have ‘n’ different objects and ‘r’ members amongst these are to be arranged – then the number of permutations is given as
where n is the number of different objects and r of them are to be arranged.
If n = 4 then n! = 4 * 3 * 2 * 1
Suppose we have (hypothetically) 10 members then we have
10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 3628800 combinations (i.e. with no combinations)
Now suppose we start ‘combining’ these members into groups of three (r = 3)
(By 'combining' I mean subgroups of members who cant interact easily beyond their own subgroup - membership level - 'links' etc)
We get
= 10! / (10 – 3)! = 720
This is a dramatic drop in comparison to 3628800 (in fact the interaction is only 0.01%)
Thus, I would then argue that they don’t even see the network effect(the rate of which is lower than the exponential growth of Web 2.0 sites).
This may explain the high valuations of Web 2.0 sites and also the concept that not all communities can be deemed to be demonstrating Web 2.0 (MySpace like) growth and by extension may never command similar market valuations.
That’s not to say that they are not useful or valuable but are severely limited in growth potential and by extension market valuation
Seek thoughts?
see my book Mobile Web 2.0
Posted by ajit at 11:08 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack
The cloud architecture and mobile browsing applications ..
Wired 14.10: The Information Factories
A verbose wired article as per link above speaks of the 'Internet cloud'. It can be summarised as
The desktop is dead. Welcome to the Internet cloud, where massive facilities across the globe will store all the data you'll ever use. George Gilder on the dawning of the petabyte age.
The key point is: this architecture is very relevent for mobile browsing applications. It can be used to overcome some of the limitations of browsing applications. The principle is the same as 'caching' data but not on a device. Historically, it has been used in application servers such as BEA Tuxedo and even earlier with IBM CICS.
I am watching this space with some interest
Posted by ajit at 12:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
October 12, 2006
Sell Phones: What will make mobile advertising tick?
Mobile Marketing and Advertising is the new “it” in the industry. All the recent industry shows have been buzzing with the potential of mobile advertising. Is mobile marketing going to be another over-hyped industry segment or will it actually help generate revenues, drive exits for VC investments, and most importantly, deliver value to the consumers? While the potential exists, there are several technical, business, and legal hurdles that need to be overcome before mobile advertising becomes a successful industry.
To get a grip on the potential market, we take a look at Japan as the harbinger of what’s to come in this space. According to Dentsu, mobile advertising revenues for 2006 will be approximately $373M or close to $3.8 per subscriber (for the year). By 2009, this number is likely to scale to $5.5/sub/year. In 2006, US will do less than $1/sub (for the year) in mobile advertising revenues, bulk of which will be SMS marketing. Clearly, potential is big. It is apparent that due to the availability of context, immediacy, and personalization, mobile has significant advantages over the other channels as an advertising medium.
First, let’s discuss the technology piece. As we have seen in Japan and Korea, higher processing power handsets and 3G pipes play a significant role in the adoption of rich advertising content. In the US, by 2008, 3G penetration will reach over 25%. Adoption of Smartphones is also increasing. By next year, we will start seeing $100 smartphones. User interfaces are also getting better. UIOne, MYDAS, Flash, Screen 3, 1mm, and other proprietary solutions are extending the possibilities. In addition, search (including local) is going to be at the epicenter -- whether advertising is based on declared intent from the user or passive impressions based on user’s context, history, and preferences.
For mobile advertising to be successful, one needs “reach”, “purity”, and “analytics”. Reach is how many “real” customers do you have? Purity is the “quality” of information on the customers. Name and address just don’t cut it. Analytics is matching users interests – implicit and explicit, context, preferences, network and handset conditions to ads and promotions in real-time. Not just bucketing a user in a group and giving them a number but understanding the user in every way possible and customizing every single interaction to the finest degree possible. Also, what is absolutely needed is an easily accessible control framework for “permission advertising” so that the user can selectively or globally switch-on or off the types of ads/promotions they would like to entertain and when.
It is clear that mobile advertising and marketing has big potential if industry strives to take into account the user considerations that matter the most. But, which players will dominate and control the ecosystem. Without a doubt, carriers have the purest profile information available, but can they execute their strategies? Well, they have approximately 2-3 year window. Once 3G and Smartphone penetration curves collide and pass 20-30%, if the carriers haven’t built a good mousetrap (value proposition) by then, all bets are off. Different dominant players will start to emerge, as it will get easier for Internet and traditional brands to build direct relationships with a good proportion of the subscriber base. Brands and service providers who are able to integrate user experience across channels will benefit the most.
Then, there is the whole world of off-net advertising and marketing, where carriers are going to play a lesser role. Here, creative technical and business solutions are needed for accurate targeting. Finally, ads and promotions should be “super-distribution-friendly” meaning -- treat ads and promotions like content that can be passed around “easily.”
While the potential is immense, there are also significant risks and potential challenges before the industry evolves into a vibrant advertising medium. The prominent amongst them are privacy and data security. Once you start mining user data, significant profile information can be developed. Then how that information is used and by whom becomes an issue and a significant legal minefield. In addition, the security policies and procedures need to be in place to protect the data from theft or misuse if the industry doesn’t want regulators to get involved.
It is quite clear from the industry trends that mobile industry is moving from an emerging state to a more interactive and immersive applications environment. By 2011, global advertising industry will be close to $600B. Can mobile start to increase its revenue share from its current levels of less than 0.2% to 2-5% by then? Since this medium can provide context, immediacy, and personalization, the answer is yes. However, there are technical, business, and legal hurdles to be crossed before the industry becomes a thriving institution. Until then, stay tuned to our commentary on the shifts and turns in the ecosystem.
Posted by ajit at 4:26 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
October 5, 2006
Is skype the new SmartTag?
Following our dinner conversation this evening , Robert Scoble has posted his views on Is Skype the new SmartTag
That’s based on our discussions this evening about an old favourite post which we call I am not a number – I am a tag
It’s a truly interesting concept originally formulated by Tony Fish at an event in London.
Obviously, Tony and I are happy that Rob has picked it up in context of Skype.
Posted by ajit at 7:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Dinner with Robert Scoble ..
I had the pleasure of having dinner with Robert Scoble and Russell Shaw at the Cheesecake factory in Palo Alto.
It was good that we could make this – since Rob is off jetting around for the rest of the week and I am in Stanford</