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July 30, 2008
One Web day
I met Susan Crawford when I spoke at Supernova 2008 and was impressed by her talk and passion for the idea of the One Web day. So, I have decided to support the idea of One Web day through our blog. If you are also interested in doing the same, please contact Susan as per her blog
OneWebDay is an annual global celebration of the collaborative, participatory nature of the web, scheduled for Sept. 22 each year. Sept. 22, 2008 is the third annual OneWebDay.
OneWebDay is an Earth Day for the internet. The idea behind OneWebDay is to focus attention on a key internet value (this year, online participation in democracy), focus attention on local internet concerns (connectivity, censorship, individual skills), and create a global constituency that cares about protecting and defending the internet.
OneWebDay physical events: In 2006, there were events in NYC (Craig Newmark, Scott Heiferman, Drew Schutte, Gale Brewer, at a wireless hotspot), Austin, Boston, Chicago, Urbana/Champaign, San Francisco, Charleston, Vienna (Austria), Naples (Italy), Sofia (Bulgaria), Belgrade (Serbia), Budapest (Hungary), Milan (Italy), Tokyo (Japan), Colombo (Sri Lanka), and London (England). There was a large gathering in Second Life. In Canada, CIRA (the .ca registry) committed significant financial support to promote the OneWebDay celebration in cities across the country. In 2007, Jimmy Wales spoke in Washington Square NYC and there were also events in Poland; Colombia; Bulgaria; Ecuador; Belgium; Israel; Benin; Mauritius; Chennai, India; Cambridge, MA, USA; Chicago, IL, USA; Austin, TX, USA; St. Louis, MO, USA; Ethiopia; UAE; Rarotonga, Cook Islands; and Naples, Italy.
There has been strong press coverage in Newsweek, BBC online, OhmyNews, RedHerring, CNET, The Register, and many many blog posts from around the world.
Quotes: Craig Newmark, founder of craigslist, said: “OneWebDay reminds us that the net really is a democratizing medium, that everyone gets a chance to participate. If you want, you can stick your neck out and speak truth to power.” Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web, added: ““OneWebDay is about ‘one web’ . . . Let’s celebrate, and let’s constantly work to make more, better, cleaner, stronger, deeper interoperability across the planet.”
2008 plans: For 2008, we plan to expand the list of cities substantially and make sure each city can see what the others are doing. There will be a large, successful event in Washington Square in New York City at noon on that day. One hundred “OneWebDay Ambassadors” will let their networks know about OneWebDay during the 100 days leading up to OneWebDay, and 100 OneWebDay stories will be selected.
Organization: OneWebDay, Inc. is a 501(c)(3) organization. It has a Board made up of online luminaries (Doc Searls, David Weinberger, David Isenberg, Mary Hodder), business people (Kaarli Tasso, Allison Fine, David Johnson, Rick Whitt), a NYC PR person (Renee Edelman, Edelman), a key researcher (Gregg Vesonder, AT&T), and a former state AG (Jim Tierney, Maine). Its president is Susan Crawford, a professor at the University of Michigan Law School who is currently a Visiting Professor at Yale Law School. She is committed to working on this holiday for the next 10 years.
There is a web site (http://onewebday.org) which is a clearinghouse for OneWebDay online projects and news. Flickr pictures and posts tagged OneWebDay can be seen on the site, which has a blog and a wiki aimed at encouraging participation.
scrawford.net
Posted by ajit at 6:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
DRM and the meaning of value in a multiformat content world
I am in Hong Kong conducting a workshop and this blog is based on a discussion with one of the attendees. Like most of my blogs – this blog also comes from discussion with some pretty clued on people I meet online and offline globally. Although this took a long time to write, I think it adds value to my workshop participants and also to the community as a whole. I seek your feedback on this blog
Oddly enough, there are many organizations who claim to enforce their outdated views(such as the RIAA ) and others who claim to protect our freedoms such as EFF - but I dont find much information about what should content creators do taking a pragmatic perspective
The question is: When content spans formats – what constitutes ‘value’?
This is of course a well known question underlying the DRM arguments
My personal view is:
a) Content digitised from another format should ideally be seen as a form of viral marketing and not as a means to restrict as user(see caveats below)
b) People will always buy content in the richer or non digital format especially if they get something extra through that format (for instance a book will always have a value since it is easier to read for longer/complex topics online).
c) Formats will not cannibalise each other – for instance cinema and Vinyl records exist and indeed thrive in an era of digitization because they provide a different value/user experience to the user
d) Hence, content creators should not focus their attentions on restricting the digitization of their content but rather focus their attention on developing secondary formats or ancillary products for which people will pay – (for instance books and rock concerts) . These will complement the digital format and will provide the business model
e) The advertisement model will work for Digital content and the revenue from the advertisements belong mainly to the content creator.
In light of my views above, I used my own books as an example (and I was not clear if my thinking is correct with this analogy – and hence a place where I especially seek feedback)
I have historically blogged my books extensively. Yet, people buy them in paperback format implying that digitization does not affect content in the non digital format in a commercial sense.
Now consider this case, (a spontaneous example I used in my workshop)
a) Someone bought a copy of my book
b) They sat on a chair in front of a video camera and read it all out
c) The video recording was put on YouTube
What should I do?
Here are my options
a) Should I sue this person?
b) Should I sue YouTube OR
c) Should I view this person as a view this person as a viral advertiser? Contact the guy. Thank him. Contact YouTube and ask them for a share of advertisement revenue. In addition, also explore other video websites who will do the same. Find more such people (with time on their hands!) like the recital man - and ask them if they want to talk about my other books?
However, what I think I cannot do is – find out how to make money from these listeners/viewers directly i.e. take the revenue model which works in one format(books) and try to retrofit it and apply it ‘online’
This is the same problem with the music / video industry.
Consider this example: You bought a DVD for 10£. You digitised it and it was accessible on the Web.
You can play the DVD indefinitely for personal use. In the digitised version, the content can be played indefinitely but NOT for personal use. I.e. more than one person can access it.
The question then is – should the viewers pay (if at all) and how much?
Maybe a pay per view model can be devised. That is possible. License models have changed for example from per seat to concurrent user especially after the Web
In general, the restriction of content to a specific format is a failing business model (region coded DVDs for example).
So, my view is – if the format changes (book to digital) then the question is not of restriction but of leverage i.e. as I say above - We should not focus our attention on restricting the digitization of content but rather focus attention on developing secondary formats or ancillary products for which people will pay – (for instance books and rock concerts) . These will complement the digital format and will provide the business model
Here are some caveats
a) If the content is transferred to digital format but for personal use, most people will agree that this is OK.
b) If the content is already digitised on the Web and is available for a fee .. Then this can be seen as taking away revenue from the provider if another site starts selling the content or giving it away for free i.e. the content was intended NOT to be free in the digital format(and was not converted to digital since it was already digitised). It is however relatively easy to monitor the web – and respectable providers will remove content if you ask for any reason your content should be removed. Most people would agree that this is OK as well.
c) Where no alternate formats exist: Consider the case of my favourite content – Nat Geo Wild or David Attenborough’s flims - especially David Attenborough’s snow leopard footage – regarded as one of the most difficult to acquire . I think most people will agree that it is valuable content (try waiting in remote, cold mountains for hunting footage of an animal already on the brink of extinction). This was a three year quest! Also, there does not seem to be an alternate ‘offline’ model here(Snow leopard concerts?)
d) Degraded digital copies: Notwithstanding the above discussions re snow leopards – one could argue that a degraded digital copy(for instance a YouTube video of the snow leopard footage) would actually benefit David Attenborough and his team since it would actually increase their exposure to new viewers who would buy the DVD version of Planet Earth (and Amazon link HERE )
e) Perfect digital copies: While YouTube would be regarded as a degraded quality from the original – what happens when we have perfect copies?
f) Higher quality format: Staying with the same Planet earth theme, Planet earth actually is the first wildlife film to be filmed completely in high definition - which means when I get HDTV – guess where I am going to spend money again? In this case, I will justify it because I am personally a huge fan of this series and it provides an even better experience. Which brings us back to the argument of Vinyl and cinema – people will pay for experiences that they value
g) Content creator has the final word: While there should be no attempt to restrict the usage of content, the content creator should have the final word when it comes to the content usage in any site.
h) All this does not override existing principles such as Fair use
To conclude, I am not an expert in this space. I have asked Tim Wu and Susan Crawford
– Who I met at Supernova and whose work I follow since, for their feedback.
By the way, speaking of Susan Crawford – don’t forget One Web Day
And here is the snow leopard footage ..
Posted by ajit at 5:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 28, 2008
Mobile Web Megatrends - watch this space ..
Mobile Web Megatrends .. Watch this space. A lot happening this week with many new speakers and topics being announced. Shaping up to be a great event!
Posted by ajit at 12:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Writing for the small screen .. m-learining
A good blog by Al Briggs on an important topic - writing for the small screen. Al's blog - We deliver elephants is focussed on m-learning
Posted by ajit at 12:24 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 27, 2008
Terrorists target hospitals in India after first bomb blasts ..
This is a new low .. Terrorists target hospitals in India after first bomb blasts ..
Image: Ten-year-old Rohit Mathurdas attended by his father.
Posted by ajit at 8:53 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Excellent presentation from Paul Golding ..
This presentation from Paul Golding on Rich mobile applications and real time web UX is great and well worth having a look. I agree with the trends and I have been covering many of them here for a while. I am a bit less optimistic about Real Time but still it will happen as infrastructure catches up espeically IMS and IMS interoperability. In any case, well worth a read!
Posted by ajit at 7:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
OMTP Bondi - A detailed review ..
INTRODUCTION
On July 1, 2008 – OMTP announced a new initiative called Bondi .
The aim of BONDI is to seek ways of increasing impact in the area of device security and enabling applications in the mobile web and emerging web runtime environments. The ambitious goals of Bondi is to encourage every mobile web runtime to implement a common set of interfaces for accessing key device and network resident capabilities in a secure manner.
OMTP is collaborating with existing fora like W3C and Open Ajax Alliance (OAA) and also aims to create an open environment in which source code as well as object code (Reference Implementations) can be reviewed to inform and complement the specification work. This will assist the developer community and help ensure that the specifications result in real implementations.
By its very nature, the project is ambitious but also attracts some skepticism.
I have been involved in technically project managing the gap analysis phase leading up to this project on behalf of AMF ventures (supported by an excellent team comprising Al Briggs, Alex Kerr, Jean Marc Rocci, Dean Bubley, Paul Golding , C Enrique Ortiz and others).
Due to this background, I know a lot about this project – and also about the ethos leading up to this project. In addition, Identity and Reputation systems are related to my PhD work – and of interest to me in general. Hence I will cover Bondi and other related developments in a more detailed analysis probably spanning more than one blogs.
Many thanks to Dr Nick Allott , OMTP CTO for his help with this blog .
Hopefully, you will find my analysis useful – and applicable to your work. In any case, as the browser becomes and application platform, we will encounter these issues – and hence there is a lot to learn from Bondi.
Also I like the collaborative approach. The reference implementation may be open sourced and OMTP has joined the W3C – all of which makes Bondi interesting.
Finally, we should view Bondi in a larger context - for instance network level APIs access like the recently announced GSMA 3rd Party Access initiative
BACKGROUND
As an organization, OMTP has evolved over the years – and I see the Bondi announcement as yet another step in this evolution. The constant element in its evolution has been OMTP’s emphasis on security – and Bondi continues this trend. Specifically, it addresses the problem of making the browser into a full development platform. This is interesting since it covers a key gap in the industry and works with a set of problems which we are only now beginning to encounter.
Firstly, let me give my personal ethos with respect to Openness, Security and Identity
a) Openness means the ability for customers to communicate without commercial and technological barriers. However, that does not mean ‘not secure’ or free.
b) I see a world comprising of both open and closed handsets i.e. ranging from handsets which will be completely open(but maybe supported by an insurance policy) to completely closed(for example with remote monitoring etc)
c) As the browser evolves into a full development platform and devices become more like PCs, I believe that we are going to encounter some problems which we have not seen so far. In many cases, these will be Identity and security related.
d) Sometimes we may not take browser security seriously. However, it will take only one major incident / security breach to bring this issue to forefront. It is better to act proactively but pragmatically. This is the same line of thinking I take with my advisory role at the Joint research commission at the European Union i.e. as a general principle - as mobile devices become more PC like, we will see some of the same issues on the PC
BONDI ARCHITECTURE
The Bondi architecture is as shown above. A brief discussion about some of the components follows. It is a comprehensive approach covering many aspects pertaining to device APIs.
Policy framework : The security manager is the architectural entity responsible for securing access to device Application Programmers Interfaces (APIs) from web applications (e.g. web pages and widgets). Specifically it will embody and police a security policy encapsulating the rules concerning which web application can access which API under which circumstance.
Packaging formats and credentials: Web applications (web pages and widgets) must be able to provide an identity and associated security credential(s) that can be used to make security decisions about what the application can and can't do. Web applications must also be able to describe their dependencies on APIs or device capabilities, in order that the application life-cycle can be effectively managed.
Policy management: In a number of cases, it is desirable to update the security policy on a device over the air: For example, when a new device API is installed (see below) or the "owner" of the security policy changes (e.g. the user changes Operators or delegates responsibility of part of the policy to a trusted third party) To address these use cases it is likely that a standardized policy management protocol will be needed. OMA DM or XML are potential protocols to implement these features.
Dynamic API: Installation interfaces - When a web browser based application runs or widget is installed it may require access to specific device APIs (e.g. send a message). This will require a set of APIs for discovery (does the specific API required already exist?) and installation (if they do not exist). The Dynamic API Installation interface allows the device capability APIs to be dynamically extended on request.
Dynamic API: Packaging format - APIs that expose device capability, where those native devices platforms are fragmented operating systems, will necessarily come in many different forms. Although the implementation of these APIs must differ (in order to reduce the web facing fragmentation), there is a strong argument for standardizing the packaging of these APIs to facilitate interoperability of provisioning and discovery.
Dynamic API: Discovery protocol - The logical extension of standardizing the packaging involves coming to a common view on the over the air protocols required for provisioning and discovery. These will provide the necessary interoperability with client resident applications and servers responsible for distributing the components.
Communications Log Interface : The communications log interface will include APIs to inspect the voice call and messaging logs that provide a history of recent phone behaviour.
Application Invocation Interface : Most APIs provided to a web application will be APIs that provide an abstract data link between web app and native device capability. In other words calling the API will not directly impact the phone user interface, user interface impact will instead be rendered by web elements. The functionality provided though the application invocation interface is different, in that calling the API will transfer UI control to a different host application. For example, through the application invocation interface it will be possible to set up a voice call through the native dialler application, which contrasts with the mechanism of setting up a call through the Telephony interface, under which circumstance the UI control will be retained by the web application directly.
Messaging Interface: The messaging interface provides function calls to send and inspect SMS, MMS and email messages.
Gallery Interface: The Gallery provides application access to media resident on the phone, including but not limited to, videos, pictures and music. Functions will be provided that allow both file level querying and investigation and presentation through a suitable media player
Persistent Data Interface : A set of file persistence function calls provides the compelling capability for a web application or widget to continue to usefully function, even if there is no internet connection, by essentially caching important data and code files.
Phone Status and Properties Interface: The behaviour of many applications can be usefully informed and optimized by querying essential phone status information. This is a potentially broad subject that will be delivered in phases, but could include useful information such as: battery level, network connection status, phone orientation, presence of camera or available memory.
Personal Information Interface: The PIM API covers access to full suite of personal information to be found on the device, including: contacts, calendar, task and notes. The API calls provided will support creation, deletion, edit and read capability.
Location Interface: Location information for the device can be provided through this interface. This interface shall support the provision of this information via a number of different implementation methods, including but not limited to: Cell ID, remote web interfaces, GPS, A-GPS, Bluetooth connected GPS devices.
User Interaction Interface : This collection of function calls will provide the capability for the application to interface with the user in manners not currently covered by web standards. This includes such things as, vibrate and tone notifications (integrated with phones sound settings), menu functions, to overload soft keys and menu functions, to allow widgets to render in controllable screen areas.
Application Settings Interface: The application settings functional group includes all APIs and facilities that relate to application settings and preferences, including (if supported): static parameters defined by the author of a web application; parameters configurable by the author or publisher of a web application to repurpose it to a specific device, locale, etc at design time, or at purchase/provisioning time; parameters read and/or modified programmatically by the application when it runs.
CONCLUSIONS
This is a comprehensive approach – and much will depend on how the industry takes up these initiatives. In any case, as the browser becomes and application platform, we will encounter these issues – and in that case, there is a lot to learn from Bondi.
Posted by ajit at 7:15 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
carnival of the mobilists - no 133 at visionmobile ..
Carnival of the mobilists No 133 is at my good friend Andreas's blog(vision mobile). Apologies for the delayed posting on account of travel
Posted by ajit at 6:43 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Can you recommend a good ad network?
Hello
Can you recommend a good ad network - I know of Adify and FM-publishing. Any else. Many thanks for your recommendation
Posted by ajit at 12:36 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
July 21, 2008
Mobile Web Megatrends - still looking for some speakers ..
We have made some great progress with Mobile Web Megatrends confeernce .. and the web site launches in a day .. however I am still interested in some speakers in the following areas. While some of these topics will be covered by other speakers, we are still keen to speak to someone who knows these in detail
Note we are looking ONLY for speakers in the following areas at this time
• The evolution of the browser(Opera, Nokia)
• Location based services 2.0 - (Cell id databases)
• APIs - network(GSMA, OpenAjax, Bondi)
• Widgets
• Android
• Nokia S40 6th edition – the impact on mass market phones
• Flashlite
• Browser plugins
• Cloud computing
Please contact me at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com
Full details of event as below.
The Mobile Web Megatrends is a unique one day event that addresses the
strategy and best practices relating to key current trends for the
Mobile Web.
The simple idea behind Mobile Web Megatrends is to create a small,
niche event focused on developments that are key to the Mobile Web
currently (2008/2009)
This means that the event will be much more focused and granular.. For
instance - we don't want to talk about 'Nokia' but rather about Nokia
S40 6th edition which has implications for the mass market. Similarly,
Opera Mobile 9.5 is significant due to features such as implementation
of Google Gears and widgets. Thus, the event will have a much more granular,
interactive focus than other events. Some of the topics we will cover
are (note that this is an indicative list only at this stage ..)
• The evolution of the browser(Opera, Nokia)
• Location based services 2.0 - (Cell id databases)
• APIs - network(GSMA, OpenAjax, Bondi)
• Widgets
• Advertising models including analytics
• Mobile social networks
• iPhone (including iStore)
• Android
• Nokia S40 6th edition – the impact on mass market phones
• Flashlite
• Mobile Web demographics – the numbers, uptake figures, impact of
flat rate etc
• Browser plugins
• Enterprise and Mobile Web
• Cloud computing
• Emerging markets
• QR codes and
• Offline browsing
The discussion will focus on the strategy, implementation, competitive
advantages and the pitfalls of these trends.
This is a unique opportunity to get an unbiased viewpoint with the
opportunity to discuss these developments. You can clarify your
thinking from the experience of others and keep the conversation going
through an ongoing attendees only discussion forum
Watch this space for more updates .. The date will be Sep 8, the
venue will be Pacific Film Archive Theater - University of California - Berkley
and the tickets will be at only
$195
Mobile Web Megatrends is brought to you by Ajit Jaokar of futuretext
and Larry Lockhart of NextVision Media
Posted by ajit at 8:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Nokia needs to do a lot more if needs to get developer mindshare like Apple ..
While I have always been a big fan of Nokia .. I think this excellent post by Steve Litchfield - Download! - absolutely no excuse is spot on ..
Nokia have all the elements but still the dots are not complete .. and Apple shows us how to do it right ..
Like Apple, Nokia need to create a whole ecosystem and a go to market strategy that benefits third party developers. Nokia is taking steps in the right direction - but there are many gaps still
However, looking at it from a bright side ., finally .. everyone has realised that there is money in Mobile data apps .. so we should see a lot more initiatives from everyone ..
Also see Pipes, software and platforms: To be (a platform) or not to be – that is the question ..
Posted by ajit at 9:43 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 20, 2008
Pipes, software and platforms: To be (a platform) or not to be – that is the question ..
Picture depicts Hamlet in context of the quote: To be or not to be - that is the question
HAMLET's CHOICE
The big news last week was the launch of Opera Mobile 9.5. I will do a more detailed post about it later this week - but the Opera Mobile 9.5 launch made me think of this post ..
As Bob Dylan would say – times they are a changing - and indeed in the recent past the rate of change in the mobile data industry has been accelerated through the launch of the iPhone and the impending arrival of the Android. In early 2006, when I started talking of the significance of the full web to mobile devices including technologies like Mobile Ajax , it was an exception rather the rule. Since then, there are many companies who have been caught up by surprise in the last few years at the speed of advancement of the Mobile Web – for instance that Openwave mistimed and missed the full mobile browser wave and realized too late that the market had fundamentally shifted away from the WAP oriented world it once dominated. It shows that a company can be completely caught off guard by the rate of change .. and then would be unable to recover in time.
This rate of change can only accelerate.
If the book Future Shock Alvin Toffler talks of an accelerated rate of technological and social change which will overwhelm people and entities . We have been living in the toffleresque world especially since the Web took off .. and now we are experiencing the same in the Mobile World as the Mobile Internet starts to mirror the Internet and as the Web starts to become ubiquitous.
What does all this mean in practice?
As we start to see the Internet and the Web dominate the Mobile data industry – every player in the value chain will have to make the choice between being a Pipe, a Software or a platform - and that's why Opera Mobile 9.5 is so significant because it leverages the Web as a platform ACROSS devices (which could also include the non mobile phone devices). This is significant since (non phone) devices offer one of the strongest growth potential for the industry as a whole.
If players in the value chain(not just Operators) don’t act – then they will have a choice made for them by the tidal wave of change by default.
Much like Hamlet’s choice – To be or not to be (a platform) is the question.
LIVING ON THE EDGE - THEDRIVERS AND THE WINNING STRATEGIES
Let us see the mobile value chain as it stands today ..
Unlike the consumer oriented value chain, we are seeing increasingly a customer driven, creation oriented value chain where the players include
a) The Social Web spanning the Web and the Mobile Web
b) The network operator
c) The device manufacturer
d) The browser
e) The operating system and
f) The SIM
If we also include the content consumption value chain, then we get two additional players
a) The content creator
b) The content aggregator
Now, let us consider what happens when the Internet and the Web become dominant players
Firstly, following Net neutrality principles , the network becomes dumb. Intelligence shifts to the edge of the network. The three entities at the edge of the network – stand to benefit the most – namely - The device, the browser and the SIM card.
Again, following net neutrality principles, customers and the developers becomes the main beneficiaries and also the main drivers
Why?
Customers – for obvious reasons. See the impact of the iPhone driven by customers if you doubt this.
Developers – for a less obvious reason – namely that as intelligence shifts to the edge of the network, we cannot anticipate in advance as to what the potential requirements are – hence the need for a vibrant developer ecosystem extending the core ecosystem in ways which are not predetermined. Thus, developer action benefits consumers – especially keeping the Long tail in view.
Thus, developers and customers determine the competitive positioning of an entity in the value chain and it’s peers
Now, in an Internet and Web dominated world, we have three choices: To be a Pipe, a Software or a platform.
THE PIPE, THE SOFTWARE AND THE PLATFORM ..
Operators are not the only ones to fear being a Pipe. In an Internet/Web dominated world - there are three choices : A Pipe, A software and a platform.
Let us define what we mean by these terms
A pipe is a pure carrier of digital information with no value addition.
A software – is a digital entity without the services layer /platform layer. It may have a developer program but does not a mindshare in the minds of the community and finally
A platform is characterized by a services layer and also a community following. This strategy stretches far beyond the developer program.
Let us look at a few examples:
a) Social networks: What was started by facebook is now a norm. Most large scale web based social networks are now platforms.
b) Networks: There are many initiatives to make the network as a platform. That’s why I have historically supported initiatives like the GSMA third party access initiative and Vodafone betavine . In addition, the network can also extend it’s influence substantially by working with the SIM – and that explains the strategies behind SCWS – which could be a powerful strategy considering the SIM, browser and the device are at the edge of the network.
c) Devices: Nokia has done a brilliant job in aligning itself with the ethos of the Internet and positioning itself as a platform. The same is not true of the others. Motorola still stuggles. Sony Ericsson Q2 profit sinks and lays off 2000 workers . Both Samsung and LG do not have the same mindshare in the minds of the community and hence are vulnerable in the new world. (The iPhone and the Android are covered below)
d) Operating systems: The valuation of Symbian shows that it had become commoditised - even when Symbian has shipped 150 million devices with annual revenue of £195 million, at £210 million – the Nokia deal values Symbian at only two times the revenue Yes, Symbian had a developer program – but not much of a mindshare in the wider community beyond that. Hence, I view Symbian more as software and less as platform
e) Browsers – Webkit is pursuing a software staretgy. This is successful but it is limited in contrast to a platform strategy (although Webkit is open sourced, most of the contributions are from big companies – most notably Apple - and not from grassroots developers)
f) The iPhone – is very significant player because of iTunes (and not only for the iPhone itself) – since iTunes is the foundation of Apple’s platform strategy and is a very significant part of it’s go to market platform.
g) Android v.s Limo - Android is a platform. Limo is mainly software. Contrary to popular comparisons in the industry – the two are not the same. See iphone vs. Symbian vs. Android vs. Limo vs. Ovi : We cannot compare an ecosystem with an operating system
h) Content aggregators: With a few exceptions like buongiorno who are extending their scope of influence by acquisitions - , most of the mobile content aggregators are stuck in the middle – and will not be able to gain mindshare in light of competition from others in the value chain.
OPERA MOBILE 9.5 - LEVERAGING THE WEB AS A PLATFORM
All this brings us to the Opera announcement last week. I will have a detailed post about it soon – but I will cover a specific aspect here: i.e. Dragon fly - Dragonfly is more than a Web based debugger for the mobile browser .. it heralds the maturity of the Web as a development platform for the Mobile browser. The browser becomes the tool to leverage the Web as a platform. This has already happened on the desktop so it makes sense that the mobile should follow - alongwith the principles of Mobile Web 2.0 . Opera believes in the vision of One Web . In order to make that a reality, you need equivalent experiences across devices. In order to ensure that the experience is equivalent, you will need first class debugging tools. So, in that context, Dragonfly is leveraging the Web as a platform through the browser across devices(not just the mobile phone) since the Opera browser powers one of the most successful non mobile phone devices in recent times – the Nintendo Wii ). Thus, this leverage plus the historic synergies between Opera and the developer community – make Opera Mobile 9.5 a significant platform play.
I will write a longer blog about Opera Mobile 9.5 covering - Cloud computing, Gears, Widgets, Community interaction, the iPhone, impact on the wider ecosystem, mobile web 2.0, developer community, go to market strategy and so on ..
TO BE OR NOT TO BE ..
Hence, to recap - Opera Mobile 9.5 – much more than just the browser. It is a manifestation of the Web as a platform – spanning devices.
But the wider impact is more significant here -
The choice between pipe, software and platform - will be one which many will have to make – either by intent or by default.
Indecisiveness and uncertainty of knowledge are the major themes throughout Hamlet. A life of action v.s. a life of silent acceptance is a drama which is being played out today in our industry; leading to a choice akin to Hamlet which many in the Mobile data industry will have to make – sooner rather than later.
As usual comments welcome ..
Image source: http://files.list.co.uk/images/2007/08/16/Hamlet---Solo.jpg
Posted by ajit at 3:53 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
July 19, 2008
I am in Seattle mid Aug .. happy to meet/speak at any events ..
I am in Seattle mid Aug .. happy to meet/speak at any events .. attending Sigcomm 2008 (related to my PhD work) but i am happy to meet or speak at any events if we can manage it. Email me at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com if possible
Posted by ajit at 8:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Carnival of the mobilists No 132
A bit late as often but better late than never .. Carnival of the mobilists No 132 is live at the Mippin blog and it includes an entry from me which was one of my shortest posts ever!
Posted by ajit at 8:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 17, 2008
Congrats Opera - Opera mobile 9.5 released ..
Congrats Opera - Opera mobile 9.5 released ..
Great news from a great company .. and many interesting features like Gears and Mobile Ajax - I will do a longer blog later - but for now - kudos to the great guys at Opera
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July 16, 2008
10 ways for Operators to save money ..
This is good. well worth reading! 10 ways for Operators to save money ..
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Corporate blogging, Conversations, Enterprise 2.0 and the speaker’s corner
Last week, I conducted a course at Oxford university about Web 2.0 and social networking. I have done this now for about two years and the audience is corporate(and not students).
One of the questions raised by an attendee was: Why should people in companies blog? Is there REALLY a value for corporate bloggers (and we use the term 'blogging' loosely to include twitter, video blogging , facebook and so on)
This is a common question - and extends often to saying that I don’t have anything interesting to say, my company will block it, etc etc ..
I take a much more people centric view to blogging .. after all - my blog discussions range from complex wireless topics like - iphone vs. Symbian vs. Android vs. Limo vs. Ovi : We cannot compare an ecosystem with an operating system to Johnny Cash doing Elvis impersonations / Bo Diddley' and 'Tom and Jerry' – Of Tom and Jerry and craving the friction of a human being
My response was:
A good blogger is someone who - if they go and spoke at Speaker's corner in Hyde park - would still be able to attract a crowd!(speaker's corner is an open air, impromptu debating platform)
While this may sound extreme, the principle is valid - because the content matters.
However, unlike Hyde park, this not a one way but rather a two way conversation
So, I say .. the content does not matter THAT much - but rather the ability to start a conversation matters MORE .. and to experiment, learn and evolve from that conversation matters MOST OF ALL.
So, that’s my advice to all the closet corporate bloggers .. Experiment .. engage in the conversation .. and start small and evolve from there ..
There is also the secondary reason for blogging and that is - it helps you to build your own brand - within but also outside your company(In uncertain economic climates - your personal brand had even more value)
Interestingly enough, ALL communications related to enterprise may end up as conversations. This is not some kind of utopian, woolly dream - but it is really happening. Today, we have a PR agency in the Conversation group dedicated solely to creating and facilitating market conversations - which is very interesting and I see a HUGE potential market for this – and will watch it with interest!
On Thursday evening, I am speaking at the mashup event on Enterprise 2.0 on a panel along with speakers like JP Rangaswami - Managing Director, Service Design for BT Design and Carl Bate - Vice President, Chief Technology Officer, Capgemini UK
I hope I can continue this conversation there! If you are attending this event, let’s speak
Image source: wikipedia
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July 14, 2008
Wikipedia as a reputation system
After speaking to Tantek Celik (thanks Tantek for the nice pocket cheat sheet on microformats at supernova!) and Dr John Breslin , I am increasingly becoming a fan of Micorformats .
Microformats offer significant potential for a number of reasons
a) We are seeiing increasing support from vendors for microformats – Open Social with FOAF, sixapart with technologies like OpenID, the Microformats hCard and XFN, and FOAF , the RDF autdiscovery firefox plugin among others ..
b) Microformats are key drivers behind data portability and social network portability
c) Microformats lend themselves to the mobile web because any format that fosters bite sized content and social networks is beneficial for the mobile web
In this blog, I am going to explore something beyond Microformats .. Let’s call it a ‘Wikipedia reputation system’ for the lack of a better word .. And I am seeking to address two different problems –
a) With Wikipedia – we have a reputation problem – i.e. an 'expert' who may know more may not be actually represented on the Wikipedia article. But - Is this a really a problem? I.e. how do you say who is the expert? Will the views of a few keep knowledge closed to the many?
b) With the semantic web – we have a different problem. Specifically – who will do the semantics for the semantic web and why?(in other words, add semantic information to the Web so that it can be program readable)
But let’s first start with a site called Naymz – which aims to be a reputation site on the web However, such initiatives have a problem. If my ‘reputation’ depends on updating someone else's site - then basically it means - If I win the Nobel prize BUT forget to update that site, then my reputation is low – irrespective of my achievements
There are many variants of this theme but they have the same ‘Nobel prize’ problem - and that’s why most people who already have a good reputation will not join a site like this since the good reputation there depends on how many people you invite etc etc i.e. contributing to the site.
Essentially, it is Google bait .. (*Your free premium placement will typically appear on the first page of Google results in the 'Sponsored Links' section for searches on your name. Placements are limited to $10 in spend. We reserve the right to remove or discontinue placements at any time.) And you can even pay to repair your reputation
All this CAN be useful to people (for example visibility on Google)– so Naymz may indeed be a good business but in my view, that’s not a true reputation system
However, that does not mean we don’t need a global reputation system ..
One possibility for a global reputation system is Wikipedia with microformats
Wikipedia could be improved by a reputation system .. However, that reputation system has to be emergent ..
One solution( which could utilize Microformats) is to consider an iterative refinement of an article i.e. start with an article but keep refining it. Wikipedia does this anyway - but it does not lend itself to that mechanism. So, I am saying more of a threaded discussion from which expertise would emerge
This is almost like making the 'discuss' page of Wikipedia more visible and then putting people who made the best changes on to the main page i.e. experts will emege by their actions in the discussions when their changes have been accepted(a reputation system) from their activity on a globally neutral system(unlike ebay which is a closed, non portable reputation).
At the moment Wikipedia does not act as a reputation system i.e. the people who make the changes are not visible on Wikipedia and are not treated as experts as such
So, if Wikipedia becomes a defacto reputation system - then it becomes more interesting.
Now, add microformats to the mix – and we solve two problems at one stroke .. Wikipedia gets a richer framework since people can be motivated to add contextual information to make their content searchable (and that act directly benefits them anyway) and microformats get their semantics .. and the world gets an open reputation system
Why Wikipedia? Because we need something global, independent and neutral to which we all contribute content and contributing that content with semantics will help Wikipedia with its reputation problem and the semantic web with its semantic motivation problem. And we, as consumers could get a global reputation system
As usual thoughts welcome
Posted by ajit at 12:31 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
July 13, 2008
carnival of the mobilists - no 131 at mjelly ..
Was busy last week .. so posted this today - better late than never .. Carnival of the mobilists No 131 is at mjelly
Posted by ajit at 10:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Which telegraphs do we still hang on to?
This may be one of my shortest blogs and carnival of the mobilists entry .. But it may be interesting. In my Web 2.0, social networking course at Oxford university which I conduct – one of the participants L Joop Quist President of Graydon holdings mentioned that – when the landline phone was new – people used to call just to check if the telegraph had arrived! So, that makes me think - as we go to the mobile web, what ‘telegraphs’ are we clinging on to?
Thanks Joop for your participation and feedback
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July 11, 2008
Cost per related audience
OVERVIEW
Peter Drucker, widely regarded as the father of modern management said that - What gets measured gets managed . Between the eras of Web 1.0 to Web 2.0 – the advertising model on the Web has now reached maturity. However, the advertising model on the social web(social networks) – is far from accepted. One of the reasons for this is the lack of relevant metrics since existing metrics like CPM do not apply to social networks.
The mathematical theories underlying social networks have existed for some time now. Also, online social networks have become mainstream. However, the applicability of the advertising model to social networks remains the missing link – the solution of which is commercially very significant especially if it is computable as a metric.
In a nutshell, we need a set of quantifiable advertising metrics (like CPM) - applicable to social networks. In previous blogs, I discussed the calculation of Personal CPM. In this blog, we discuss the idea behind Cost per related audience(CPRA). CPRA involves the concept of identifying a set of related profiles within a social network by navigating the social graph. Consequently, the advertiser would ‘buy’ advertising against a set of profiles through a metric called Cost per related audience. Further, reputation within the social network can be used to further refine the results. All the above factors are quantifiable within a social network - (including reputation) – and thus we can create a truly useful metric that can benefit advertisers
BACKGROUND
In previous blogs, I had been exploring the idea of how to measure personal CPM. (Calculating personal CPM and extending the idea of personal CPM beyond the Web to Telecoms) and the belief that we need new metrics if we are to get the support of advertisers for Web 2.0 applications and user generated content.
In this blog, we extend that discussion to other metrics beyond Personal CPM.
For the purposes of this discussion:
a) The unit of advertisement (i.e. against which the advertiser places an advertisement) is a social networking profile. Note that we can place advertisements against other objects in a social network (and hence lead to different metrics – maybe a topic for a follow-on blog ) but for now – let us consider the profile as a target unit of advertisement.
b) We take the principles of personalised advertising as a given. Traditional channels like TV are a mass market, interruptive medium for advertising. Advertising in such media is not personalised to the audience. Today, with the rise of the Web, most of us accept the idea that advertising should be personalised and targeted to the user.
c) The profile on social networks is one dimensional – it can be enhanced in many ways for instance by including social(relationship/network/social graph), behavioural(incorporating roles) and demographic profiling(traditional segmentation)
Extending the above ideas ..
a) If we extrapolate the idea of personal CPM, the next logical unit for advertisements is to consider is a ‘group of profiles’ – i.e. advertisements against a ‘related audience’ defined by a collection of related profiles.
b) If we are to target a relevant audience within a social network, then a ‘shotgun’ approach would be to place advertisements against a ‘group’ (such as a facebook group). However, that does not solve the problems mentioned in my previous blogs (for instance a group about ‘Nike’ may not be flattering to Nike – and hence not a place where Nike might want to advertise against)
A more interesting and sophisticated approach is to identify the relevant audience by navigating the social graph. Consequently, the advertiser would ‘buy’ advertising against a set of profiles through a metric called ‘Cost per related audience’
THE MISSING LINK
The term ‘social graph’ is currently in vogue – even more so after it was popularised by Brad Fitzpatrick(now at Google) . The social graph and its applications are now becoming significant because of the emergence of Web based social networks. However, the principles underlying social networks
and Graph theory have been with us since as early as 1736 following a paper written Leonhard Euler on the Seven Bridges of Königsberg in that year
However, while Graph theory exists in it’s mathematical form and the usage of social graphs have become popular due to the rise of social networking, the application of the advertising model to social networks via the social graph remains a missing link – the solution of which is commercially very significant especially if it is quantifiable through metrics
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
The application of advertising models to social networks can be an extensive and a complex subject since there are many possibilities.
Adapted from Wikipedia, we can describe social network analysis as follows
A social network is a social structure made of nodes (which are generally individuals or organizations) that are tied by one or more specific types of interdependency, such as values, visions, ideas, financial exchange, friendship, kinship, dislike, conflict or trade. The resulting structures are often very complex.
Social network analysis views social relationships in terms of nodes and ties. Nodes are the individual actors within the networks, and ties are the relationships between the actors.
In its simplest form, a social network is a map of all of the relevant ties between the nodes being studied. The network can also be used to determine the social capital of individual actors. These concepts are often displayed in a social network diagram, where nodes are the points and ties are the lines.
An overview of social networks at orgnet and a simple diagram below offers some initial ideas based on social network analysis
Remember that our goal is to find a set of related profiles which are suitable for advertising based on a topic.
We are concerned here with the location of actors in the network – measurement of which gives the centrality of a node. The computation of centrality in turn gives us the roles and groupings within the network. A connection exists between two nodes if they regularly talk/interact with each other. The above diagram illustrates three types of centrality : Degree Centrality, Betweenness Centrality, and Closeness Centrality.
Degree centrality represents the number of direct connections a node has – for instance Dianne has the highest degree in the above diagram (hub). In contrast, Heather has few direct connections - but exhibits a high level of betweenness since she lies between two important constituencies and hence has a higher power. Finally, while Fernando has fewer connections than Dianne, he has the shortest path to all others in the network – and hence Fernando has the highest visibility into the information flow within the network.
Thus, even the most rudimentary analysis exhibits relations between profiles which can be used to find related profiles to advertise against.
REPUTATION AS A CURRENCY
How else could we extend this?
The underlying ‘currency’ of a social network is the reputation of it’s members – and by navigating the social graph and complementing it with reputation metrics – we can create truly useful metrics that can benefit advertisers. Note that all the above factors are quantifiable within a social network - (including reputation) are quantifiable.
CONCLUSIONS
• The mathematical theories underlying social networks have existed for some time now.
• Online social networks have become mainstream.
• However, the applicability of the advertising model to social networks remains the missing link – the solution of which is commercially very significant especially if it is computable as a metric.
• We need a set of quantifiable advertising metrics (like CPM) - applicable to social networks.
• ‘Cost per related audience’(CPRA). CPRA involves the concept of identifying the relevant audience within a social network by navigating the social graph.
• The advertiser would ‘buy’ advertising against a set of profiles through a metric called ‘Cost per related audience’.
• Further, reputation within the social network can be used to further refine the results.
• All the above factors are quantifiable within a social network - (including reputation) – and thus we can create a truly useful metric that can benefit advertisers
Posted by ajit at 10:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 9, 2008
Web 2.0 , user generated content and social networking course - Hong Kong
Hello
I am in Hong Kong again at the end of this month repeating a course I did on Mobile Web 2.0 last month. In addition, this month the organizors have also introduced a new workshop called Web 2.0 , user generated content and social networking course. Details below.
Since this was introduced at a short notice to leverage my time in Hong Kong - I would be very interested if you can help introduce it to someone you know. It is similar to the course I run at Oxford University - but more comprehensive since spanning over two days
Registration: HERE ( http://webtech.comp.polyu.edu.hk/registration.htm )
Many thanks for your help with this course
Posted by ajit at 9:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Dr Mike Short - Congratulations!!
Mike Short, Vice President of Research and Development at Telefonica O2 Europe has been a great friend and inspiration to many in the industry - including me. He wrote the foreword for my first book when I was a virtual unknown in the industry and has always supported my work. So, it was great to see that Mike Short is Dr Mike Short as reported by Martyn Warwick of Telecomtv. As the article says - it could not have happened to a nicer chap. Compliments Dr Mike Short!
article below
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Mike Short: The Doctor is in
09/07/2008 08:46:00 - by Martyn Warwick
I am delighted to be able to report that Mike Short, the vice president of Research and Development at Telefonica O2 Europe and a longtime and firm friend of us here at TelecomTV has been awarded an honorary doctoral degree by the UK's Staffordshire University. It is well-deserved recognition for Mike's inestimable contributions to the mobile industry and really couldn't have happened to a nicer chap.
In his present role Mike Short is deeply involved in the development of some of the most innovative and compelling 3G mobile services in the world and is a man with boundless enthusiasms for the global mobile industry.
MIke has been an evangelist for mobile technologies and services from the very earliest days and became a director of Cellnet (now O2 UK) way back in 1989, when he was responsible for the company's big infrastructure investments.
Four years later he established Cellnet's groundbreaking GSM service and was also responsible for negotiating roaming agreements that allowed UK mobile subscribers to use their mobile handsets whilst overseas – a revolutionary idea that has had the most profound effects on the development and popularity of mobile telephony all over the world. In more recent years Mike Short has ben focusing on 3G technologies and services and is an infectious enthusiast for applications and services as diverse as mobile TV and wireless health.
That's his day job, but Mike is one of those people who seems to be able to squeeze 48 hours of work into 24. Thus he either has also been, or still is, chairman of both the GSM Association (GSMA) and the Mobile Data Association (MDA), an advisor to Ofcom, the UK's uber-regulator of telecoms and the media, the chair the UK Trade and Investment ICT Sector Advisory Board, advisor to the UK Radio Communications Agency and a director of Phonepayplus, the regulator of Britain's premium calling sector.
On top of that, Mike Short also came up with the idea of the prestigious Global Mobile Awards; has given evidence and tendered advice to British Parliamentary committees on the mobile industry and is also a Visiting Lecturer at Lancaster University, De Montfort University in Leicester, Surrey University and, of course, Staffordshire.
Mike is renowned for his affability, accessibility and deep industry knowledge.
Continues after advertisement.
He also knows just about everyone in it. If Bill Clinton is Rolodex Man, famous for maintaining contact with everybody he's ever met, Mike Short is his equivalent in the global telecoms sector, except that he uses rather more up-to-date technology than a Rolodex to maintain his seemingly inexhaustible list of contacts.
Ask Mike any question about almost any aspect of telecoms and if he can't immediately answer it himself he will be able, instantly, to provide you with several contacts who will be able to help.
Well done Doctor Short. An academic honour for an honourable man,
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July 6, 2008
Mobile Web Megatrends ..
Following my previous blog about Mobile Web Megatrends - many thanks for your feedback and also about requests for this event i.e. what exactly is the Mobile Web Megatrends all about ..
So, here is some more information ..
Last year, I chaired a conference called Mobile Web Americas in Orlando – Florida. With participation from Nokia, Google, Opera and others – this event was a huge success. After that event, I mentioned to Larry Lockhart(the organizer of Mobile Web Americas) about the forumoxford event I co-chair in partnership with Oxford University – and that the forumoxford conference has a unique, homely feel to it but also a cutting edge technical excellence .. and how it would be nice to create something similar ‘across the pond’ in San Francisco/Silicon Valley.
Larry had not forgotten my comment apparently ..
A few months ago .. he came back with an update about Mobile Web Americas ..
It had become bigger and better .. and was going to be called Mobile Web Strategies 2008 and was going to be a partner event with CTIA .. to be held at the Moscone centre ..
Would I like to chair it again ..
And ofcourse I said yes ..
He then reminded me of my comment last year .. Mobile Web Strategies is to be held on Sep 9 in the Moscone centre .. That leaves Sep 8(a Monday ..).
Would I be interested in creating a smaller, focussed – maybe more detailed event covering specific topics ..
And thus was born the idea of Mobile Web Megatrends ..
This will be the first event I create in America from the ground up .. and it’s great to have an experienced partner like Larry. It is also a part of a broader futuretext strategy to have a greater presence in America.. so I hope we do this right!
The simple idea behind Mobile Web Megatrends is to create a small, niche event focused on developments that are key to the Mobile Web currently(2008/2009)
This means that the event will be much more focussed and granular .. for instance - we don’t want to talk about 'Nokia' but rather about Nokia S40 6th edition which has implications for the mass market. Similarly, this year due to a changed licensing model, Adobe is also very interesting - so we want to cover Adobe ..
It will also have a much more interactive focus
Based on feedback, we have now updated my original list to a set of potential topics below (note that this is an indicative list only at this stage ..)
• The evolution of the browser(Opera, Nokia)
• Location based services 2.0 - (Cell id databases)
• APIs - network(GSMA, OpenAjax, Bondi)
• Widgets
• Advertising models including analytics
• Mobile social networks
• iPhone (including iStore)
• Android
• Nokia S40 6th edition – the impact on mass market phones
• Flashlite
• Mobile Web demographics – the numbers, uptake figures, impact of flat rate etc
• Browser plugins
• Enterprise and Mobile Web
• Cloud computing
• Emerging markets
• QR codes and
• Offline browsing
We decided to keep it only $195 – and with a limited audience, I think the tickets will sell fast …
The date will be Sep 8 – the venue will be somewhere in San Francisco or the bay area.
If you are interested in attending, speaking or sponsoring .. please contact me at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com
Many thanks to Kevin Leong, Russell Buckley, Jeff Sonstein, Dean Bubley, Alex Kerr, Al Briggs, C Enrique Ortiz, Paul Golding and Michael Mace and others for their feedback
Posted by ajit at 10:54 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Calculating the personal CPM and extending the idea of personal CPM beyond the Web to IMS
In a previous blog, I discussed how Long tail social network analysis could be a business model for Web 2.0
The key insights are
a) The Web has a higher CPM since the search is tied to the intent
b) For various reasons as indicated in the above blog, we cannot get the same synergies between advertising and social networks
c) New metrics are needed in the social network space if we are to get advertisers to support social networking sites
The question is – which metrics do we need?
I ended that article saying that: but mapping a rich, dynamic profile to a segmented long tail may lead to advertisements that may reflect the user's social intent (just like Google captures the transactional intent) .. and hence provide higher revenues – and consequently a business model for Web 2.0 by making the advertisement model profitable
One of the most interesting metrics I can see is the idea of personal CPM.
First put forward by Marian Salzman , and later picked up in a blog by Charlene Li, the idea of personal CPM can be explained as per below from Rodger Roeser’s blog
Personal" takes a real person. Marketers have always known that personal recommendations are the most powerful form of brand advocacy. And thanks to interactive technologies, personal recommendations are no longer limited by physical constraints; consumers can forge wide networks of kindred spirits and virtual friends. As more and more people participate in these networks, they will come to rival traditional media-born advertising in terms of influence.
Watch for millions of influential individuals to develop their equivalent of a personal CPM rate card. A personal CPM assumes that people are their own media properties and, as such, should be applied some worth by the brands they advocate. The larger and more influential their social networks, the more valuable these individuals are and the higher the CPM they will be able to command. But as their influence grows, they will need to remain truly objective—consumers are too savvy to trust those who recommend the brands that pay them the most.
This is interesting .. but how to calculate the Personal CPM?
The personal CPM can be tied to a richer personal profile. Many of the elements the rich profile already exist. The three dimensions of a rich profile include Social(relationship/network/social graph), Behavioural(incorporating roles) and Demographic profiling(traditional segmentation)
A lot can be derived from a profile as this paper from MIT called Social Network Profiles as Taste Performances by Hugo Liu shows
Abstract
This study examines how a social network profile's lists of interests—music, books, movies, television shows, etc.—can function as an expressive arena for taste performance. By composing interest tokens around a theme, profile users craft their "taste statements." First, socioeconomic and aesthetic influences on taste are considered, and the expressivity of interest tokens is analyzed using a semiotic framework. Then, a grounded theory approach is taken to identify four types of taste statements—those that convey prestige, differentiation, authenticity, and theatrical persona. The semantics of taste and taste statements are further investigated through a statistical analysis of 127,477 profiles collected from the MySpace social network site between November 2006 and January 2007. The major findings of the analysis include statistical evidence for prestige and differentiation taste statements and an interpretation of the taste semantics underlying the MySpace community—its motifs, paradigms, and demographic structures.
Thus, the ‘rich’ profile (by that I mean a multidimensional profile which reflects reputation, the long tail segmentation and other factors – not just the personal attributes ) now becomes a measure of the personal CPM. Perhaps the CPM to be similar to a page rank i.e. a ranking from one to ten.
However, this gets more interesting if we extend the idea of the personal CPM to a converged environment. Specifically, with the telecoms/mobile(and increasingly fixed and cable) industries as well .. we are seeing the deployment of IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem) IMS has a feature called HSS – which maintains a rich profile including user attributes, location and many other elements
Thus, I think Personal CPM may also be a unique business model for IMS and telecoms and within a social network, advertisers will compete to ‘advertise on’ the profiles of the people with the highest personal CPMs/reputations.
I am still exploring these ideas – so all comments welcome both from the advertising /social media side and from the HSS side
Posted by ajit at 7:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 5, 2008
seeking feedback: what are the mobile web megatrends
Hello
I am creating an event/workshop called Mobile Web Megatrends
I am looking for key developments this year and next year(2008/2009)
So, in my view the Mobile Web Megatrends in 2008/2009 are
a) The evolution of the browser(Opera, Nokia)
b) Location based services 2.0 - (Cell id databases)
c) APIs - network(GSMA, OpenAjax, Bondi)
d) Widgets
e) Advertising models including analytics
f) Mobile social networks
g) iPhone
h) Android
What else?
What more can you add?
Many thanks
kind rgds
Ajitt
Posted by ajit at 7:22 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
July 4, 2008
Happy fouth of July to our friends in America ..
Happy Fouth of July to our friends in America ..
Image source: http://bluerulzz.blogspot.com/2007/07/happy-fourth-of-july-2007.html
Posted by ajit at 10:54 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 3, 2008
Bettymills company - supernova: Innovative marketing approach ..
This promotion was the first for me .. And a token of appreciation - I thought I should encourage Betty Mills. At the Supernova 2008 event, the Betty Mills company had free breakfast and snacks .. In return for any bloggers in the conference blogging about them .. For all my conference attending, this is a first - so I thought I should thank them for their excellent food with good variety(always important for someone like me with some allergies ..)
Posted by ajit at 5:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Long tail social network analysis – A business model for Web 2.0
I am working on some ideas for my course at Oxford University next week about Web 2.0 and user generated content .. And here is one ..
It is motivated by two articles:
Firstly, a business model for Web 2.0 is elusive .. Yes, we can talk about the advertising business model .. But that has not yet worked as the financial times argues in the article Web 2.0 fails to produce cash and secondly - this great article from the MIT technology review articulates the problem brilliantly ..
The problem
Synergies between advertisements and social networking / web 2.0 are yet to be found ..
As facebook found out much to it’s dismay with it’s Beacon program – that advertising on social networks is not easy .. and I summarise the problem from the MIT technology review article ..
Yes, sites have impressive user numbers ..
Ning has 267,787 sites, Bebo sees 22 million visitors a month, Club Penguin sees five million, LinkedIn gets nearly five million unique visits. Facebook saw 33.9 million unique U.S. visitors in January 2008, and MySpace saw nearly 72 million unique visitors in the same month.
However .. getting revenue is a problem .. although facebook is valued at $15 billion dollars, it is still likely to lose money and Google has been unable to monetise it’s $900 million investment in MySpace . CPMs on social networks are also a problem .. Facebook sets a minimum CPM of $0.15 for its "social ads," and the MySpace banner ad rate stands at a CPM of less than $2.
The problem has four facets:
a) Unsuitable metrics – CPM may not be the best indicator of social network analysis
b) Attention(rather lack thereof)
c) Privacy and
d) Content
These problems are well known and well discussed in the above article .. for instance – unlike with Google – users do not go to social networks with a specific intent. Hence they are not very receptive to advertisements and are in any case distracted by a wide variety of communication tools(such as microblogging). Privacy is also an issue as facebook found out recently and so is the content(i.e. user generated content may not be always suitable for advertising and it is necessary to have at least a moderation function – if not more for it)
The solution?
Traditional approaches have been based on targeting but targeting alone is not enough since it hits only a small target but ignores the wider audience(long tail).
One idea I am exploring is as follows . It is based on the following concepts
a) Social networks by their nature can be segmented over the long tail – this idea is explored in the concept of the Long tail is chunky
b) The profile on social networks is one dimensional – it can be enhanced in many ways for instance by including social(relationship/network/social graph), behavioural(incorporating roles) and demographic profiling(traditional segmentation)
Such a rich/multidimensional/dynamic profile(I call it dynamic since it depends on social relationships and changes over time) – actually maps well over the segmented long tail. So, the end result would be still to advertise against the profile but such an advertisement will incorporate a lot more than the static profile .. it will include an element of the user’s digital footprint(hence their intent) which is dynamic
This still leaves the problem of metrics .. but mapping a rich, dynamic profile to a segmented long tail may lead to advertisements that may reflect the user’s social intent (just like Google captures the transactional intent) .. and hence provide higher revenues – and consequently a business model for Web 2.0 by making the advertisement model profitable
Thoughts?
Posted by ajit at 1:22 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
July 2, 2008
The thin mobile client: The story of HSDPA and how the device may fade away into the SIM ..
Like many of my blogs, this one comes out of extrapolating a conversation – in this case, two separate conversations – and I have extended ideas from these conversations. It is a bit of a gedankenexperiment
So .. Here we go .. Thoughts welcome ..
Inspite of many optimistic (non SMS) data projections year on year from around 2000 – Operators missed them all. They tried WAP, they tried MVNOs, they tried all sorts of bundles .. And notably although flatrate was a key driver to increased data .. Flat rate alone was not enough ..
Something else was needed ..
And suddenly .. in 2007 or thereabouts .. they started hitting data projections ., and what was the cause? Ironically, there were two (seemingly mutually contradictory developments) that have led to the uptake of Mobile data …
The first(which everyone is focussing on) is the Smartphone/ iPhone .. i.e. rich device(and by that I mean Nokia N95, iPhone, Android and others collectively) .. these developments have created a device which is valued by the customer –considering the buzz around the iPhone, and Nokia being rated as the best ‘Operator’ in a survey .. :)
However, there is a second(almost directly contradictory) story here ..
The biggest cause of uptake of Mobile data is HSDPA (mobile broadband) .. and like SMS – no expert/consultant/guru predicted this – with the possible exception of Dean Bubley in my view
The success of HSDPA has some unique characteristics
a) The ‘device’ is absent – and in fact – it fades away into the SIM to a ‘bare bones’ data service(no more than a SIM)
b) Because the device is absent .. the Operator brand is strongest – which suits the operators
c) We don’t have to worry about interoperabity, interconnectivity etc. It is a simple service that works .. and people are prepared to pay a premium for it
Admittedly, it is an access layer technology and not a service layer technology .. How do we extend this access layer technology to the services layer? Potentially .. by extending the only common element i.e. the SIM
This is not unexpected since both the device(and also the SIM) are at the edge of the network .. and ironically, one would say that if intelligence shifts to the edge of the network, then the intelligent SIM is a way to go if we want to extend one of the few mobile data successes beyond the access layer.
And ironically, the SIM is becoming intelligent through a technology called SCWS which I have been following for some time now
The SIM started off as a means to identify the subscriber to the network, but it could take on a much bigger role as an enabler of mobile services .. especially if the precedence of HSDPA is something to go by – and SIM being the only network element in that configuration(which also functions as the client element)
This is the opposite of the ‘smart client’ model .. and in computer science terms may be viewed as a thin client service .. analogous to the ideas from Citrix
So, what I am saying is .. the success of HSDPA could ironically lead to a set of thin client devices – powered by the SIM ..
Thoughts?
Posted by ajit at 9:41 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
GSMA 3rd Party Access initiative - URL
In relation to the previous blog on GSMA 3rd Party Access initiative - API enabing the network operator, as per comments by
Graham Trickey (