Open Gardens

August 20, 2008

Dont forget to register for Mobile Web Megatrends

Dont forget to register for Mobile Web Megatrends. Shaping up to be a great event!

The Mobile Web Megatrends is a unique one day event that addresses the strategy and best practices relating to key current trends for the Mobile Web.

The simple idea behind Mobile Web Megatrends is to create a small, niche event focused on developments that are key to the Mobile Web currently (2008/2009)

This means that the event will be much more focused and granular.. For instance - we don't want to talk about 'Nokia' but rather about Nokia S40 6th edition which has implications for the mass market. Similarly, Opera Mobile 9.5 is significant due to features such as implementation of Google Gears. Thus, the event will have a much more granular, interactive focus than other events.

Some of the topics we will cover (note this is a indicative list only at this stage)
• The evolution of the browser(Opera, Nokia)
• Location based services 2.0 - (Cell id databases)
• APIs - network(GSMA, OpenAjax, Bondi)
• Widgets
• Advertising models including analytics
• Mobile social networks
• iPhone (including iStore)
• Android
• Nokia S40 6th edition – the impact on mass market phones
• Flashlite
• Mobile Web demographics – the numbers, uptake figures, impact of flat rate etc
• Browser plugins
• Enterprise and Mobile Web
• Cloud computing
• Emerging markets
• QR codes and
• Offline Browsing

The discussion will focus on the strategy, implementation, competitive advantages and the pitfalls of these trends. This unique opportunitiy to get an unbiased viewpoint with the opportunity to discuss these developments. You can clarify your thinking from the experience of others and keep the conversation going through an ongoing attendees only discussion forum.

Watch this space for more updates...The date will be September 8th, the venue wil be the University of California, Berkeley and tickets are only $195

Mobile Web Megatrends is brought to you by Ajit Jaokar of futuretext and Larry Lockhart of NextVision Media

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Potential downtime today ..

We are upgrading Movable Type. So potential downtime today. Thanks for your support

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August 18, 2008

UK Ofcom report - lots of interesting data ..

As usual, the ofcom report released this week has lots of great data. Thanks to Dean Bubley of Disruptive Wireless for pointing this to me

Some interesting insights as per Disruptive wireless:

* Quite a lot of discussion of the resilience of fixed-line comms in the face of the mobile onslaught. Rather than direct fixed-mobile substitution, it appears that the UK sees more mobile-initiated incremental use of voice. Fixed minutes have dropped about 17bn minutes in total over 6 years, but mobile call volumes have risen by 38bn minutes. The UK outbound call total is still around 60/40 fixed:mobile, and 88% of homes still have a fixed line.

* The proportion of mobile-only households has been pretty static for the past few years, currently at 11%. This is considerably lower than elsewhere in Europe (eg 37% in Italy), and is possibly reflecting the prevalence of ADSL. Most mobile-only users are from lower socioeconomic groups.

* 44% of UK adults use SMS daily, against 36% using the Internet

* More than 100k+ new mobile broadband connections per month in the UK in H1 2008, with the rate of sign-up accelerating. 75% of dongle users are now using their mobile connection at home.

* Nearly half of adults with home broadband use WiFi

* 11% of UK mobile phone owners use the device to connect to the Internet, and 7% use it to send email. (It looks like the survey Ofcom commissioned didn't define "the Internet", so this might include some closed WAP usage too - consumers probably don't have a full view on what "the Internet" is at a technical level).

* VoIP usage appears to have fallen from 20% of consumers in late 2006, to 14% in early 2008. However, I suspect that this masks the fact that many instances of VoIP (eg BT's broadband circuit-replacement service, or corporate IP-PBXs), don't make it obvious to the user.

* Over two-thirds of mobile broadband users also have fixed-line broadband

* UK mobile subscribers send an average 67 SMS per month (or 82 / month per head, taking account of multiple subs-per-person). MMS use is only 0.37 messages per user per month.

* Slight increase in overall fixed-line subscriptions in 2007 - attributed to business lines.

* Overall UK non-SMS mobile data revenues were flat in 2007 vs 2006 at £1bn. I reckon that's because the data pre-dates the big rise in mobile dongle sales, and also reflects price pressures on things like ringtones. Ofcom also attributes this to adoption of flatrate data plans vs. pay-per-MB.

* UK prepay mobile ARPU has been flat at £9 / month for the last 4 years. That's a big issue for operators wanting to sell data services to prepay subs in my view.

* 17% of mobile subscriptions in the UK were on 3G at end-2007, although there's not much detail on the actual usage of 3G for non-voice applications.

* Overall, UK households allocate 3.3% of total spending to telecom services. That's been flat since 2003 - ie the slice of the pie isn't getting any bigger relative to food/rent/entertainment/travel etc.

* 94% of new mobile subscriptions are bundled with handsets.

* 11% of UK adults have >1 SIM card. Among 16-24yo users, this rises to 16%. There's an estimate that of the second devices in use in the UK, 1m are 3G dongles, 0.7m are BlackBerries or similar, and 8m are genuine "second handsets". There's also another 8m "barely active" devices that are used as backups, or legacy numbers that get occasional inbound calls or SMS

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Changes to OpenGardens blog coming soon

Hello all

We are going to make a few changes to OpenGardens blog over the next few weeks – and this week we upgrade to the latest version of movable type. Apologies for any disruption this may cause. Also, we will make a lot more efforts to include the community features of the latest Movable type platform and also work with more detailed posts and cross link to them. This is a part of my larger effort to look at electronic publishing and make the OpenGardens blog more content rich.

I have already been testing and making changes over the last few weeks as you know.

Many thanks for all your support as usual

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August 16, 2008

Attending the Social networking workshop in SIGCOMM 2008 at Seattle

I am attending SIGCOMM 2008 - specifically the social networking workshop at SIGCOMM 2008 in Seattle. This relates more to my research / PhD work and its fascinating to see all these cutting edge developments from a mathematical/research perspective. So, lots of Graphs, data, network analysis etc etc. If anyone is attending this, lets meet. Unfortunately I cannot be in Seattle for the whole of SIGCOMM but will be there at the social networking workshop all day. Please contact me at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com if you can meet up

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August 14, 2008

Changes to the publishing industry .. ebooks

I have been discussing the future of books and publishing for some time and we are launching a new venture in this space. In that context, interesting statistics which I agree with regarding changes to the publishing industry .. ebooks

>>>
We estimate that the UK publishing market was worth £18.41bn in 2007, having grown by just 0.4% during the year. Three sectors are examined in this Market Review: newspapers, magazines and books.

Each of these three sectors is dominated by around a dozen companies. Hardly any companies are involved in more than one sector of the market, and only Pearson PLC has significant interests in all three sectors.

The book-publishing sector is experiencing greater change than any other sector of the publishing industry. Some of the large publishers are planning to digitise vast numbers of the books that they have published in the past (their so-called backlists).

They also planning to launch thousands of e-books in 2008 and 2009, and some publishers are starting to sell a proportion of their books online. The major academic publishers are increasingly investing in digitised content and are printing much less material.

For newspapers and magazines, the key concerns are maintaining their advertising revenues and winning new readers. This is especially crucial for newspapers. The main reason why newspapers have lost so much ground over the past 20 years is that the adults who grew up reading a daily newspaper with their cornflakes and toast in the 1930s and 1940s (and so made reading a newspaper a daily habit) are dying off, and they are not being replaced. The growth of radio and the Internet are other factors behind the decline in newspaper sales, as is the shortage of time for newspaper reading. To survive, newspapers will have to become as familiar online as they are in print.

Magazines appear to be in a stronger position, but they too will have to increase their multimedia activities. This has already begun, and the process will surely accelerate over the next few years. The magazine sector will also need to watch its prices. In 2006 or even 2007, cover prices could be increased without a significant loss of readers, but in 2009 publishers will need to think carefully before doing this. Our research indicates that the majority of consumers already believe that magazines are too expensive.

We forecast that the UK publishing market as a whole will grow by 5.1% between 2007 and 2012. Newspaper revenues are forecast to decline over the period, while book revenues will show the strongest growth.
<<<

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August 11, 2008

Carnival of the mobilists No 136 at Allaboutiphone ..

Carnival of the mobilists No 136 at Allaboutiphone blog .. and my entry get the post of the week :) many thanks for that. Its always nice to see that my detailed posts are appretiated :)

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testing

web 2.0

Mobile web 2.0

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Congratulations to Abhinav Bindra for winning India's first gold medal ..

Congratulations to Abhinav Bindra for winning India's first gold medal ..

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Chetan Sharma blogs about Mobile Web Megatrends ..

Many thanks Chetan :) Chetan Sharma blogs about Mobile Web Megatrends

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August 10, 2008

Martin Sauter's blog: Mobile Web Megatrends ..

Martin Sauter blogs about Mobile Web Megatrends ..

I first heard about Martin from his excellent book Communication Systems for the Mobile Information Society (Hardcover) and then met him at our conference in Oxford.

So, its great to have an endorsement from his blog for Mobile Web Megatrends

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Mobile Widget Camp event in Austin

C. Enrique Ortiz and Daniel Appelquist are organizing the Mobile Widget camp event in Austin. Knowing these guys for a long time, I know this will be a great event. If you are in Austin,then well worth a visit

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August 9, 2008

Nokia, Opera, ESPN, Admob, Oracle + leading industry bloggers to speak at Mobile Web Megatrends ..

I have blogged about the Mobile Web Megatrends conference before .. and a lot has happened since then.

Here's where we are at! Please sign up ASAP if you are interested.

The event is on Sep 8 2008 at the pacific film archive theatre at the University of California Berkeley for only $195. Link is Mobile Web Megatrends

Speakers include companies who are doing some cutting edge work in the Mobile Web space including Nokia, Opera Mobile 9.5 , ESPN mobile , Oracle atomdb , Admob

Startups – Moblast, , skyfire, cellfire, mynumo

Thought leaders and bloggers - Ajit Jaokar, Michael Mace , Barbara Ballard , Mike Rowehl

Operator strategies - OMTP Bondi , Gemalto SCWS

Emerging markets – Brazil – Mobile trends and digital inclusion

Co-Created and Chaired by Ajit Jaokar, the simple idea behind Mobile Web Megatrends is to create a small, niche event focused on developments that are key to the Mobile Web, currently (2008/2009)

This means that the conference will be focused and granular and have much more interaction from attendees and speakers than is usually found at such events.

Topics to be covered include:
Browser evolution(Opera mobile 9.5, Nokia S40 6th edition, flashlight)
location based services including CellID databases
iPhone including iStore and iPhone applications
Android
Mobile web advertising,
Emerging markets(Brazil and Digital inclusion)
Network API's (OMTP Bondi)
Widgets
Offline browsing
And much more.

The discussion will focus on the strategy, implementation, competitive advantages and the pitfalls of these trends with a unique opportunity to get unbiased opinions. You will clarify your thinking from the experience of others and keep the conversation going through an ongoing attendees only discussion forum.

For more information and registration, please visit Mobile Web Megatrends conference

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Comcast ruling on net neutrality ..

Interesting article from TelecomTv. as below. I have highlighted sections I find very interesting

Here in the UK, Virign is the biggest culprit on net neutrality
(which makes a contrast from Richard Branson's talk about fair pricing in the airline industry!) with Virgin advertisements which are misleading about broadband speed

I was also concerned about their new Fibre optic broadband advertisers .. but plenty of others have also complained against the Virgin fibre optic advertisements .. and Virgin have been censured again!

Source
TelecomTv

Comcast ruling begins to clarify neutrality argument - a little
07/08/2008 13:55:00 - by Ian Scales

The FCC (in a close, 3 to 2 decision) delivered a sharp rebuke to US cable giant Comcast last week for throttling its users' traffic and thereby violating Internet principles regarding neutrality.

The ruling should influence thinking in Europe and the rest of the world around the boundaries between traffic management and user punishment - a live concern in Europe with theTelecom Package appearing to clear the way for national governments to allow traffic throttling to be used as a sanction against illegal file sharing.

The FCC judgement followed a long list of complaints from users claiming Comcast was interfering with their peer-to-peer traffic flows, especially BitTorrents and that they, er, shouldn't do it. Could they stop? The FCC considered the matter and came up with a judgement.

The verbals are worth a quote or two. “We find that it was unreasonable for Comcast to discriminate against particular Internet applications, including BitTorrent," said FCC chairman Kevin Martin. "While Comcast claimed its intent was to manage congestion, the evidence told a different story,” said Kev (we like him), who went on to unpack a new version of the post office analogy we're quite fond of on the 'Throttle the Package" campaign. He said it was like “the post office opening your mail, deciding they didn't want to bother delivering it, and hiding that fact by sending it back to you stamped 'address unknown - return to sender.'"

Comcast was given 30 days to disclose the details of its "discriminatory network practises" to the Commission and to submit a compliance plan describing how it plans to stop the practises by year-end.

The decision came as a surprise to many in the US (and us) who had expected something more muted, or even a decision which went the other way and exoneratedComcast. To that end there will be noisy appeals after which many expect a second decision to modify or overturn the first.

But even if the fat lady is still in her dressing room doing vocal exercises, we think the decision as articulated by Kev has crystallised some important principles.

First, it teases apart the technical and the commercial and makes it clear that players need to be sure they can show they're doing the former and not the latter - this is good. Secondly it highlights the importance of being clear about what you're doing and then telling people.

For too long ISPs have been able to shelter in technical vagueness over a range of matters, such as how fast connections are, and how and under what circumstances traffic will be 'engineered'. The ruling makes it clear that ISPs can't hide behind a "we don't need to trouble the customers too much with the detail, just trust us," defence. This is becoming increasingly unacceptable.

What the judgement has made clearer, both for the US and the rest of the world, is the distinction between pure traffic engineering and using it to punish or dissuade users from some behaviour you don't approve of.

Perhaps most importantly, it highlights 'motivation' and consequent 'behaviour' as a subject for examination. Those - unfortunately very often in our own industry - who rail against the judgement on the basis that it's a bureaucratic intervention by people who aren't technical enough to understand the principles of network management, miss the point. This is not about 'regulating the Internet' as is often claimed. That would clearly be a non-starter and, as one of the main motivations of those of us who want to keep the thing open and neutral is to protect the freedom to innovate, would be totally self-defeating.

But there is clearly a role for regulators to protect the essential principles of the Internet by sanctioning corporate 'behaviour' which undermines them. Martin's judgement is the result of considering the 'way' Comcast went about doing what it did.

What, the Commission asked, was Comcast setting out to do by throttling traffic? Was this about traffic management? Or was it just as much about protecting its own services by stopping file sharing behaviour it felt undermined them? If it was to reduce traffic congestion, then why did it pick on a specific application, why didn't it throttle back all heavy traffic flows... and so on.

This is ethical oversight, not detailed regulation, and it's no different from the sort of approach applied to things like abuse of 'insider information' in the financial markets. We should expect similar developments in our field.

At least the US system in this case delivered a reasonably transparent down-to-earth decision-making process through the FCC, whereas the European Union's hugely detailed and ultimately opaque steps and stages (as with the telecoms package) often create a process capable of confusing any electorate (in 12 languages) as the legislative process grinds along.

It's too often like one of those process flow charts which codifies what is actually a simple interaction into a birds nest of arrows and shapes: faultlessly logical, but ultimately self-defeating.

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August 8, 2008

The ASUS effect : Mobile innovation triggered by open source, long tail devices and a shift in the device value chain

Introduction
Note: The ASUS eepc is a sub-notebook costing about $360 running Linux. The intention of this blog is to discuss the impact of Open source software and the PC value chain on mobile devices.

Having worked and met many developers globally over the last few years, the most common question I hear is: How do we get our application on devices?

It is not an easy task – and I always wanted to do a blog about why that is so. But also on a more optimistic level, why it will also get easier to have new applications on devices.

The traditional chain of thought is: The Operators are too risk averse, network integration takes a long time, the application platforms are fragmented etc etc

These are indeed important factors – and they are being alleviated by the deployment of the Mobile Web (which unifies the Web and the Mobile Web), IMS(which separates the network layer from the service layer), the iPhone (which provides a better revenue model for developers), Cell ID databases(which provide location by bypassing the Operator) and others.

However, there is a more fundamental problem aside from those listed above – and we discuss it here.

Essentially, the existing mobile device value chain is brittle and does not lend itself to change. However, triggered by Open source - that scenario is changing. I am calling it ‘Long Tail’ devices i.e. a possibility that devices may be manufactured and deployed in smaller quantities – thereby encouraging a diversity of new ideas and innovation.

As open source (and specifically Android) takes off, there will be many more new device manufacturer entrants. It will be easier for many new companies to become device manufacturers (with help from companies like ODMs like e28 who are already developing for the Android stack).

This approach is more similar to the PC industry. It is helpful for innovation because many new ideas and technologies cannot be deployed on devices today since the value chain is optimized towards economies of scale - making it risk averse.

Operators and other network providers can now start to take a much more granular approach to devices and then start to experiment with new technologies in devices like SCWS , holographic mobile handsets and so many others

In other words, currently new technologies depend on the Big 5 handset vendors to take off. In future, as ODMs(Original design manufacturers) become very accomplished then it will be possible to produce specialized devices in smaller quantities - with the differentiation being provided by the higher (services) layer of the stack.

Supply chain excellence
In the current ecosystem where the end-user uses mainly voice and SMS, the Operating system and higher levels of the stack do not make a difference. Hence, factors influencing the customer’s purchasing decision include form-factor/design, brand, and price. In this ecosystem, the scale achieved by top 5 handset manufacturers is a huge barrier to entry for newcomers and also new ideas.

Note that this scale is necessary at the phase of evolution of the handset value chain but may not necessarily apply to the future value chain for mobile handsets when fixed costs decrease.

The current situation /leadership is based on supply chain excellence with the market leader Nokia having one of the best supply chains in the world across industries ie. not just mobile phones.

Mastery of the supply chain achieves economies of scale. Economies of scale apply to ecosystems with higher fixed costs. However, as the fixed costs decrease, then we start to get a more divergent market. We will discuss how fixed costs for handset development are likely to decrease.

Profitability – Average selling price and the BOM costs
The market for handsets can be broadly classified into two categories: The mass market devices in emerging economies and the more expensive devices in mature economies.

Emerging markets provide the higher subscriber numbers – but margins are low. Mature markets are based on handset replacement cycles. In all markets, the average selling price continues to drop by about 8% year on year across the top five vendors . In addition, the average bill of materials (BOM) of a mobile handset is expected to decline from US$102 in 2006 to US$86 in 2012. Other factors like single-chip designs have significantly helped in pushing down cost

To make further reductions in the BOM cost, we now need to address software stack costs, IPR costs and development costs (integration/testing etc) which constitute some of the most important elements of the BOM.

That’s the status quo as of 2008.

Now, from here on - as open source (and especially Android and also Symbian) reduces the software stack costs and IPR costs; differentiation shifts to modularization, integration and services (i.e. higher in the stack). Consequently, we have the possibility of new devices which are no longer bound by high fixed costs.

Note that the handset value chain is already modularized. Many of the handsets are being developed by ODMs from Taiwan and China. (The distinction between ODMs and OEMs continues to blur – but for the purposes of our discussion – we can say that ODMs do not have their own brand. They develop their devices based on reference designs from Chipset manufacturers).

Chipset vendors like Freescale, Marvell, NEC Electronics, Qualcomm, and Texas Instruments have all announced reference designs at Barcelona.

There is of course a fixed cost involved at the chipset/reference design level and chipset vendors need at least $2.5bn of sales to cover min. R&D requirements.
However, in the case of Android – that cost may be spread out over a large number of potentially new and existing players who may enter the handset device market – and these players will differentiate not on the device but based on services and application level software.

So we can expect that ODMs will use these designs to create actual devices.

ODM, white labels and innovation
The value created through a lower BOM cost from open source is the trigger to a wider range of devices.

As fixed costs decrease, the mobile phone supply chain will mirror the PC supply chain. The PC supply chain is less brittle and more flexible and does not have as many layers as the mobile value chain. Hence, it is far more adaptable

If the market for mobile phones follows the PC market, then there could be as much as 40% white label devices . In contrast, the big five control as much as 84% of the market today
(For Q2 08, the sales percentages for the top 5 handset makers is as follows: Nokia 41.1%, Samsung 15.4%, Motorola 9.5%, LG 9.3%, and Sony Ericsson 8.2% Rest 16.4% - source Chetan sharma consulting)

In addition to a wider range of devices, there is of course likely to be a range of applications that can benefit from a wider number of devices.

Let a thousand devices bloom
Who benefits from this?

In the end the customers and developers will be the winners as is always the case with open systems and open source. Customers, because they will have more choice and developers because they will have more avenues to deploy their ideas.

The whole ecosystem will also benefit as a result. If the impact similar to that of the ASUS is to be mirrored on to the mobile ecosystem, then we are likely to see a wider range of cheaper mobile devices with the differentiation being provided by software

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August 7, 2008

Visibility mobile - mobile seach engines startup

visibility mobile is a new ambitious start up eager make mobile sites more discoverable. Using special algorithms the company will ensure that brands secure a lead at the top of mobile search engines.

The new venuture, which will launch in September is a joint venture betweeen Bena Roberts of gomonews fame
and technology powerhouse the TSSG. The concept and idea was born by the founder Bena Roberts but development and expertise to deliver the technology will be managed by the TSSG. There are currently six full time employees working on visibility mobile; but with over 140 developers at the TSSG; the top resources are being driven into the venture. Exact details of investment have not been disclosed, but it is in the six figure mark.

Having known both Bena and the TSSG for a while now, this should be an interesting venture to watch

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August 4, 2008

E28 - Off the shelf hardware running Android ..

Considering my previous post re impact of Open source and Android on handset vendors, this is very interesting and I expect that we will see more vendors from Taiwan and China adopt this trend.

It also points to my belief that many more manufacturers may enter the marketplace with Android(and with some more off the shelf components triggered by Open source)

(see video from second link)

Overview of Android port(zdnet)
Video of Android port (phonemag)

company is e28

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August 2, 2008

Benefits of Open source and Open platforms for new Device manufacturers

I believe that platforms like Android and the also the general trend towards Open source software will lead to more players becoming device manufacturers.

In other words, with developments like Android we will see more companies becoming devices manufacturers - just like at a certain point in it's evolution it was easy for more people to become PC makers.

So, to validate this I want to interview about 10 - 20 device makers in Taiwan/China

These need not be 'big' in fact - smaller the better! For example - Garage type operations who can make phones to sell to the African market

If you can recommend anyone or let me know how I can go about finding these - that would be great

We can ofcourse reference them on the site/research etc thereby getting them exposure

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July 30, 2008

One Web day

I met Susan Crawford when I spoke at Supernova 2008 and was impressed by her talk and passion for the idea of the One Web day. So, I have decided to support the idea of One Web day through our blog. If you are also interested in doing the same, please contact Susan as per her blog

OneWebDay is an annual global celebration of the collaborative, participatory nature of the web, scheduled for Sept. 22 each year. Sept. 22, 2008 is the third annual OneWebDay.

OneWebDay is an Earth Day for the internet. The idea behind OneWebDay is to focus attention on a key internet value (this year, online participation in democracy), focus attention on local internet concerns (connectivity, censorship, individual skills), and create a global constituency that cares about protecting and defending the internet.

OneWebDay physical events: In 2006, there were events in NYC (Craig Newmark, Scott Heiferman, Drew Schutte, Gale Brewer, at a wireless hotspot), Austin, Boston, Chicago, Urbana/Champaign, San Francisco, Charleston, Vienna (Austria), Naples (Italy), Sofia (Bulgaria), Belgrade (Serbia), Budapest (Hungary), Milan (Italy), Tokyo (Japan), Colombo (Sri Lanka), and London (England). There was a large gathering in Second Life. In Canada, CIRA (the .ca registry) committed significant financial support to promote the OneWebDay celebration in cities across the country. In 2007, Jimmy Wales spoke in Washington Square NYC and there were also events in Poland; Colombia; Bulgaria; Ecuador; Belgium; Israel; Benin; Mauritius; Chennai, India; Cambridge, MA, USA; Chicago, IL, USA; Austin, TX, USA; St. Louis, MO, USA; Ethiopia; UAE; Rarotonga, Cook Islands; and Naples, Italy.

There has been strong press coverage in Newsweek, BBC online, OhmyNews, RedHerring, CNET, The Register, and many many blog posts from around the world.

Quotes: Craig Newmark, founder of craigslist, said: “OneWebDay reminds us that the net really is a democratizing medium, that everyone gets a chance to participate. If you want, you can stick your neck out and speak truth to power.” Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web, added: ““OneWebDay is about ‘one web’ . . . Let’s celebrate, and let’s constantly work to make more, better, cleaner, stronger, deeper interoperability across the planet.”

2008 plans: For 2008, we plan to expand the list of cities substantially and make sure each city can see what the others are doing. There will be a large, successful event in Washington Square in New York City at noon on that day. One hundred “OneWebDay Ambassadors” will let their networks know about OneWebDay during the 100 days leading up to OneWebDay, and 100 OneWebDay stories will be selected.

Organization: OneWebDay, Inc. is a 501(c)(3) organization. It has a Board made up of online luminaries (Doc Searls, David Weinberger, David Isenberg, Mary Hodder), business people (Kaarli Tasso, Allison Fine, David Johnson, Rick Whitt), a NYC PR person (Renee Edelman, Edelman), a key researcher (Gregg Vesonder, AT&T), and a former state AG (Jim Tierney, Maine). Its president is Susan Crawford, a professor at the University of Michigan Law School who is currently a Visiting Professor at Yale Law School. She is committed to working on this holiday for the next 10 years.

There is a web site (http://onewebday.org) which is a clearinghouse for OneWebDay online projects and news. Flickr pictures and posts tagged OneWebDay can be seen on the site, which has a blog and a wiki aimed at encouraging participation.
scrawford.net

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DRM and the meaning of value in a multiformat content world

I am in Hong Kong conducting a workshop and this blog is based on a discussion with one of the attendees. Like most of my blogs – this blog also comes from discussion with some pretty clued on people I meet online and offline globally. Although this took a long time to write, I think it adds value to my workshop participants and also to the community as a whole. I seek your feedback on this blog

Oddly enough, there are many organizations who claim to enforce their outdated views(such as the RIAA ) and others who claim to protect our freedoms such as EFF - but I dont find much information about what should content creators do taking a pragmatic perspective

The question is: When content spans formats – what constitutes ‘value’?

This is of course a well known question underlying the DRM arguments

My personal view is:

a) Content digitised from another format should ideally be seen as a form of viral marketing and not as a means to restrict as user(see caveats below)

b) People will always buy content in the richer or non digital format especially if they get something extra through that format (for instance a book will always have a value since it is easier to read for longer/complex topics online).

c) Formats will not cannibalise each other – for instance cinema and Vinyl records exist and indeed thrive in an era of digitization because they provide a different value/user experience to the user

d) Hence, content creators should not focus their attentions on restricting the digitization of their content but rather focus their attention on developing secondary formats or ancillary products for which people will pay – (for instance books and rock concerts) . These will complement the digital format and will provide the business model

e) The advertisement model will work for Digital content and the revenue from the advertisements belong mainly to the content creator.

In light of my views above, I used my own books as an example (and I was not clear if my thinking is correct with this analogy – and hence a place where I especially seek feedback)

I have historically blogged my books extensively. Yet, people buy them in paperback format implying that digitization does not affect content in the non digital format in a commercial sense.

Now consider this case, (a spontaneous example I used in my workshop)

a) Someone bought a copy of my book
b) They sat on a chair in front of a video camera and read it all out
c) The video recording was put on YouTube

What should I do?

Here are my options
a) Should I sue this person?
b) Should I sue YouTube OR
c) Should I view this person as a view this person as a viral advertiser? Contact the guy. Thank him. Contact YouTube and ask them for a share of advertisement revenue. In addition, also explore other video websites who will do the same. Find more such people (with time on their hands!) like the recital man - and ask them if they want to talk about my other books?

However, what I think I cannot do is – find out how to make money from these listeners/viewers directly i.e. take the revenue model which works in one format(books) and try to retrofit it and apply it ‘online’

This is the same problem with the music / video industry.

Consider this example: You bought a DVD for 10£. You digitised it and it was accessible on the Web.

You can play the DVD indefinitely for personal use. In the digitised version, the content can be played indefinitely but NOT for personal use. I.e. more than one person can access it.

The question then is – should the viewers pay (if at all) and how much?

Maybe a pay per view model can be devised. That is possible. License models have changed for example from per seat to concurrent user especially after the Web

In general, the restriction of content to a specific format is a failing business model (region coded DVDs for example).

So, my view is – if the format changes (book to digital) then the question is not of restriction but of leverage i.e. as I say above - We should not focus our attention on restricting the digitization of content but rather focus attention on developing secondary formats or ancillary products for which people will pay – (for instance books and rock concerts) . These will complement the digital format and will provide the business model

Here are some caveats
a) If the content is transferred to digital format but for personal use, most people will agree that this is OK.

b) If the content is already digitised on the Web and is available for a fee .. Then this can be seen as taking away revenue from the provider if another site starts selling the content or giving it away for free i.e. the content was intended NOT to be free in the digital format(and was not converted to digital since it was already digitised). It is however relatively easy to monitor the web – and respectable providers will remove content if you ask for any reason your content should be removed. Most people would agree that this is OK as well.

c) Where no alternate formats exist: Consider the case of my favourite content – Nat Geo Wild or David Attenborough’s flims - especially David Attenborough’s snow leopard footage – regarded as one of the most difficult to acquire . I think most people will agree that it is valuable content (try waiting in remote, cold mountains for hunting footage of an animal already on the brink of extinction). This was a three year quest! Also, there does not seem to be an alternate ‘offline’ model here(Snow leopard concerts?)

d) Degraded digital copies: Notwithstanding the above discussions re snow leopards – one could argue that a degraded digital copy(for instance a YouTube video of the snow leopard footage) would actually benefit David Attenborough and his team since it would actually increase their exposure to new viewers who would buy the DVD version of Planet Earth (and Amazon link HERE )

e) Perfect digital copies: While YouTube would be regarded as a degraded quality from the original – what happens when we have perfect copies?

f) Higher quality format: Staying with the same Planet earth theme, Planet earth actually is the first wildlife film to be filmed completely in high definition - which means when I get HDTV – guess where I am going to spend money again? In this case, I will justify it because I am personally a huge fan of this series and it provides an even better experience. Which brings us back to the argument of Vinyl and cinema – people will pay for experiences that they value

g) Content creator has the final word: While there should be no attempt to restrict the usage of content, the content creator should have the final word when it comes to the content usage in any site.

h) All this does not override existing principles such as Fair use

To conclude, I am not an expert in this space. I have asked Tim Wu and Susan Crawford
– Who I met at Supernova and whose work I follow since, for their feedback.

By the way, speaking of Susan Crawford – don’t forget One Web Day

And here is the snow leopard footage ..

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July 28, 2008

Mobile Web Megatrends - watch this space ..

Mobile Web Megatrends .. Watch this space. A lot happening this week with many new speakers and topics being announced. Shaping up to be a great event!

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Writing for the small screen .. m-learining

A good blog by Al Briggs on an important topic - writing for the small screen. Al's blog - We deliver elephants is focussed on m-learning

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July 27, 2008

Terrorists target hospitals in India after first bomb blasts ..

This is a new low .. Terrorists target hospitals in India after first bomb blasts ..

Image: Ten-year-old Rohit Mathurdas attended by his father.

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Excellent presentation from Paul Golding ..

This presentation from Paul Golding on Rich mobile applications and real time web UX is great and well worth having a look. I agree with the trends and I have been covering many of them here for a while. I am a bit less optimistic about Real Time but still it will happen as infrastructure catches up espeically IMS and IMS interoperability. In any case, well worth a read!

Posted by ajit at 7:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

OMTP Bondi - A detailed review ..

INTRODUCTION
On July 1, 2008 – OMTP announced a new initiative called Bondi .

The aim of BONDI is to seek ways of increasing impact in the area of device security and enabling applications in the mobile web and emerging web runtime environments. The ambitious goals of Bondi is to encourage every mobile web runtime to implement a common set of interfaces for accessing key device and network resident capabilities in a secure manner.

OMTP is collaborating with existing fora like W3C and Open Ajax Alliance (OAA) and also aims to create an open environment in which source code as well as object code (Reference Implementations) can be reviewed to inform and complement the specification work. This will assist the developer community and help ensure that the specifications result in real implementations.

By its very nature, the project is ambitious but also attracts some skepticism.

I have been involved in technically project managing the gap analysis phase leading up to this project on behalf of AMF ventures (supported by an excellent team comprising Al Briggs, Alex Kerr, Jean Marc Rocci, Dean Bubley, Paul Golding , C Enrique Ortiz and others).

Due to this background, I know a lot about this project – and also about the ethos leading up to this project. In addition, Identity and Reputation systems are related to my PhD work – and of interest to me in general. Hence I will cover Bondi and other related developments in a more detailed analysis probably spanning more than one blogs.

Many thanks to Dr Nick Allott , OMTP CTO for his help with this blog .

Hopefully, you will find my analysis useful – and applicable to your work. In any case, as the browser becomes and application platform, we will encounter these issues – and hence there is a lot to learn from Bondi.

Also I like the collaborative approach. The reference implementation may be open sourced and OMTP has joined the W3C – all of which makes Bondi interesting.
Finally, we should view Bondi in a larger context - for instance network level APIs access like the recently announced GSMA 3rd Party Access initiative

BACKGROUND
As an organization, OMTP has evolved over the years – and I see the Bondi announcement as yet another step in this evolution. The constant element in its evolution has been OMTP’s emphasis on security – and Bondi continues this trend. Specifically, it addresses the problem of making the browser into a full development platform. This is interesting since it covers a key gap in the industry and works with a set of problems which we are only now beginning to encounter.

Firstly, let me give my personal ethos with respect to Openness, Security and Identity
a) Openness means the ability for customers to communicate without commercial and technological barriers. However, that does not mean ‘not secure’ or free.

b) I see a world comprising of both open and closed handsets i.e. ranging from handsets which will be completely open(but maybe supported by an insurance policy) to completely closed(for example with remote monitoring etc)

c) As the browser evolves into a full development platform and devices become more like PCs, I believe that we are going to encounter some problems which we have not seen so far. In many cases, these will be Identity and security related.

d) Sometimes we may not take browser security seriously. However, it will take only one major incident / security breach to bring this issue to forefront. It is better to act proactively but pragmatically. This is the same line of thinking I take with my advisory role at the Joint research commission at the European Union i.e. as a general principle - as mobile devices become more PC like, we will see some of the same issues on the PC

BONDI ARCHITECTURE

The Bondi architecture is as shown above. A brief discussion about some of the components follows. It is a comprehensive approach covering many aspects pertaining to device APIs.

Policy framework : The security manager is the architectural entity responsible for securing access to device Application Programmers Interfaces (APIs) from web applications (e.g. web pages and widgets). Specifically it will embody and police a security policy encapsulating the rules concerning which web application can access which API under which circumstance.

Packaging formats and credentials: Web applications (web pages and widgets) must be able to provide an identity and associated security credential(s) that can be used to make security decisions about what the application can and can't do. Web applications must also be able to describe their dependencies on APIs or device capabilities, in order that the application life-cycle can be effectively managed.

Policy management: In a number of cases, it is desirable to update the security policy on a device over the air: For example, when a new device API is installed (see below) or the "owner" of the security policy changes (e.g. the user changes Operators or delegates responsibility of part of the policy to a trusted third party) To address these use cases it is likely that a standardized policy management protocol will be needed. OMA DM or XML are potential protocols to implement these features.

Dynamic API: Installation interfaces - When a web browser based application runs or widget is installed it may require access to specific device APIs (e.g. send a message). This will require a set of APIs for discovery (does the specific API required already exist?) and installation (if they do not exist). The Dynamic API Installation interface allows the device capability APIs to be dynamically extended on request.

Dynamic API: Packaging format - APIs that expose device capability, where those native devices platforms are fragmented operating systems, will necessarily come in many different forms. Although the implementation of these APIs must differ (in order to reduce the web facing fragmentation), there is a strong argument for standardizing the packaging of these APIs to facilitate interoperability of provisioning and discovery.

Dynamic API: Discovery protocol - The logical extension of standardizing the packaging involves coming to a common view on the over the air protocols required for provisioning and discovery. These will provide the necessary interoperability with client resident applications and servers responsible for distributing the components.

Communications Log Interface : The communications log interface will include APIs to inspect the voice call and messaging logs that provide a history of recent phone behaviour.

Application Invocation Interface : Most APIs provided to a web application will be APIs that provide an abstract data link between web app and native device capability. In other words calling the API will not directly impact the phone user interface, user interface impact will instead be rendered by web elements. The functionality provided though the application invocation interface is different, in that calling the API will transfer UI control to a different host application. For example, through the application invocation interface it will be possible to set up a voice call through the native dialler application, which contrasts with the mechanism of setting up a call through the Telephony interface, under which circumstance the UI control will be retained by the web application directly.

Messaging Interface: The messaging interface provides function calls to send and inspect SMS, MMS and email messages.

Gallery Interface: The Gallery provides application access to media resident on the phone, including but not limited to, videos, pictures and music. Functions will be provided that allow both file level querying and investigation and presentation through a suitable media player

Persistent Data Interface : A set of file persistence function calls provides the compelling capability for a web application or widget to continue to usefully function, even if there is no internet connection, by essentially caching important data and code files.

Phone Status and Properties Interface: The behaviour of many applications can be usefully informed and optimized by querying essential phone status information. This is a potentially broad subject that will be delivered in phases, but could include useful information such as: battery level, network connection status, phone orientation, presence of camera or available memory.

Personal Information Interface: The PIM API covers access to full suite of personal information to be found on the device, including: contacts, calendar, task and notes. The API calls provided will support creation, deletion, edit and read capability.

Location Interface: Location information for the device can be provided through this interface. This interface shall support the provision of this information via a number of different implementation methods, including but not limited to: Cell ID, remote web interfaces, GPS, A-GPS, Bluetooth connected GPS devices.

User Interaction Interface : This collection of function calls will provide the capability for the application to interface with the user in manners not currently covered by web standards. This includes such things as, vibrate and tone notifications (integrated with phones sound settings), menu functions, to overload soft keys and menu functions, to allow widgets to render in controllable screen areas.

Application Settings Interface: The application settings functional group includes all APIs and facilities that relate to application settings and preferences, including (if supported): static parameters defined by the author of a web application; parameters configurable by the author or publisher of a web application to repurpose it to a specific device, locale, etc at design time, or at purchase/provisioning time; parameters read and/or modified programmatically by the application when it runs.

CONCLUSIONS
This is a comprehensive approach – and much will depend on how the industry takes up these initiatives. In any case, as the browser becomes and application platform, we will encounter these issues – and in that case, there is a lot to learn from Bondi.

Posted by ajit at 7:15 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

carnival of the mobilists - no 133 at visionmobile ..

Carnival of the mobilists No 133 is at my good friend Andreas's blog(vision mobile). Apologies for the delayed posting on account of travel

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Can you recommend a good ad network?

Hello
Can you recommend a good ad network - I know of Adify and FM-publishing. Any else. Many thanks for your recommendation

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July 21, 2008

Mobile Web Megatrends - still looking for some speakers ..

We have made some great progress with Mobile Web Megatrends confeernce .. and the web site launches in a day .. however I am still interested in some speakers in the following areas. While some of these topics will be covered by other speakers, we are still keen to speak to someone who knows these in detail

Note we are looking ONLY for speakers in the following areas at this time
• The evolution of the browser(Opera, Nokia)
• Location based services 2.0 - (Cell id databases)
• APIs - network(GSMA, OpenAjax, Bondi)
• Widgets
• Android
• Nokia S40 6th edition – the impact on mass market phones
• Flashlite
• Browser plugins
• Cloud computing

Please contact me at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com

Full details of event as below.

The Mobile Web Megatrends is a unique one day event that addresses the
strategy and best practices relating to key current trends for the
Mobile Web.
The simple idea behind Mobile Web Megatrends is to create a small,
niche event focused on developments that are key to the Mobile Web
currently (2008/2009)
This means that the event will be much more focused and granular.. For
instance - we don't want to talk about 'Nokia' but rather about Nokia
S40 6th edition which has implications for the mass market. Similarly,
Opera Mobile 9.5 is significant due to features such as implementation
of Google Gears and widgets. Thus, the event will have a much more granular,
interactive focus than other events. Some of the topics we will cover
are (note that this is an indicative list only at this stage ..)

• The evolution of the browser(Opera, Nokia)
• Location based services 2.0 - (Cell id databases)
• APIs - network(GSMA, OpenAjax, Bondi)
• Widgets
• Advertising models including analytics
• Mobile social networks
• iPhone (including iStore)
• Android
• Nokia S40 6th edition – the impact on mass market phones
• Flashlite
• Mobile Web demographics – the numbers, uptake figures, impact of
flat rate etc
• Browser plugins
• Enterprise and Mobile Web
• Cloud computing
• Emerging markets
• QR codes and
• Offline browsing

The discussion will focus on the strategy, implementation, competitive
advantages and the pitfalls of these trends.

This is a unique opportunity to get an unbiased viewpoint with the
opportunity to discuss these developments. You can clarify your
thinking from the experience of others and keep the conversation going
through an ongoing attendees only discussion forum
Watch this space for more updates .. The date will be Sep 8, the
venue will be Pacific Film Archive Theater - University of California - Berkley
and the tickets will be at only
$195

Mobile Web Megatrends is brought to you by Ajit Jaokar of futuretext
and Larry Lockhart of NextVision Media

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Nokia needs to do a lot more if needs to get developer mindshare like Apple ..

While I have always been a big fan of Nokia .. I think this excellent post by Steve Litchfield - Download! - absolutely no excuse is spot on ..

Nokia have all the elements but still the dots are not complete .. and Apple shows us how to do it right ..

Like Apple, Nokia need to create a whole ecosystem and a go to market strategy that benefits third party developers. Nokia is taking steps in the right direction - but there are many gaps still

However, looking at it from a bright side ., finally .. everyone has realised that there is money in Mobile data apps .. so we should see a lot more initiatives from everyone ..

Also see Pipes, software and platforms: To be (a platform) or not to be – that is the question ..

Posted by ajit at 9:43 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 20, 2008

Pipes, software and platforms: To be (a platform) or not to be – that is the question ..

Picture depicts Hamlet in context of the quote: To be or not to be - that is the question

HAMLET's CHOICE
The big news last week was the launch of Opera Mobile 9.5. I will do a more detailed post about it later this week - but the Opera Mobile 9.5 launch made me think of this post ..

As Bob Dylan would say – times they are a changing - and indeed in the recent past the rate of change in the mobile data industry has been accelerated through the launch of the iPhone and the impending arrival of the Android. In early 2006, when I started talking of the significance of the full web to mobile devices including technologies like Mobile Ajax , it was an exception rather the rule. Since then, there are many companies who have been caught up by surprise in the last few years at the speed of advancement of the Mobile Web – for instance that Openwave mistimed and missed the full mobile browser wave and realized too late that the market had fundamentally shifted away from the WAP oriented world it once dominated. It shows that a company can be completely caught off guard by the rate of change .. and then would be unable to recover in time.

This rate of change can only accelerate.

If the book Future Shock Alvin Toffler talks of an accelerated rate of technological and social change which will overwhelm people and entities . We have been living in the toffleresque world especially since the Web took off .. and now we are experiencing the same in the Mobile World as the Mobile Internet starts to mirror the Internet and as the Web starts to become ubiquitous.

What does all this mean in practice?

As we start to see the Internet and the Web dominate the Mobile data industry – every player in the value chain will have to make the choice between being a Pipe, a Software or a platform - and that's why Opera Mobile 9.5 is so significant because it leverages the Web as a platform ACROSS devices (which could also include the non mobile phone devices). This is significant since (non phone) devices offer one of the strongest growth potential for the industry as a whole.

If players in the value chain(not just Operators) don’t act – then they will have a choice made for them by the tidal wave of change by default.

Much like Hamlet’s choice – To be or not to be (a platform) is the question.

LIVING ON THE EDGE - THEDRIVERS AND THE WINNING STRATEGIES
Let us see the mobile value chain as it stands today ..
Unlike the consumer oriented value chain, we are seeing increasingly a customer driven, creation oriented value chain where the players include

a) The Social Web spanning the Web and the Mobile Web

b) The network operator

c) The device manufacturer

d) The browser

e) The operating system and

f) The SIM

If we also include the content consumption value chain, then we get two additional players
a) The content creator

b) The content aggregator

Now, let us consider what happens when the Internet and the Web become dominant players
Firstly, following Net neutrality principles , the network becomes dumb. Intelligence shifts to the edge of the network. The three entities at the edge of the network – stand to benefit the most – namely - The device, the browser and the SIM card.

Again, following net neutrality principles, customers and the developers becomes the main beneficiaries and also the main drivers

Why?

Customers – for obvious reasons. See the impact of the iPhone driven by customers if you doubt this.

Developers – for a less obvious reason – namely that as intelligence shifts to the edge of the network, we cannot anticipate in advance as to what the potential requirements are – hence the need for a vibrant developer ecosystem extending the core ecosystem in ways which are not predetermined. Thus, developer action benefits consumers – especially keeping the Long tail in view.

Thus, developers and customers determine the competitive positioning of an entity in the value chain and it’s peers

Now, in an Internet and Web dominated world, we have three choices: To be a Pipe, a Software or a platform.

THE PIPE, THE SOFTWARE AND THE PLATFORM ..
Operators are not the only ones to fear being a Pipe. In an Internet/Web dominated world - there are three choices : A Pipe, A software and a platform.

Let us define what we mean by these terms

A pipe is a pure carrier of digital information with no value addition.

A software – is a digital entity without the services layer /platform layer. It may have a developer program but does not a mindshare in the minds of the community and finally

A platform is characterized by a services layer and also a community following. This strategy stretches far beyond the developer program.

Let us look at a few examples:

a) Social networks: What was started by facebook is now a norm. Most large scale web based social networks are now platforms.

b) Networks: There are many initiatives to make the network as a platform. That’s why I have historically supported initiatives like the GSMA third party access initiative and Vodafone betavine . In addition, the network can also extend it’s influence substantially by working with the SIM – and that explains the strategies behind SCWS – which could be a powerful strategy considering the SIM, browser and the device are at the edge of the network.

c) Devices: Nokia has done a brilliant job in aligning itself with the ethos of the Internet and positioning itself as a platform. The same is not true of the others. Motorola still stuggles. Sony Ericsson Q2 profit sinks and lays off 2000 workers . Both Samsung and LG do not have the same mindshare in the minds of the community and hence are vulnerable in the new world. (The iPhone and the Android are covered below)

d) Operating systems: The valuation of Symbian shows that it had become commoditised - even when Symbian has shipped 150 million devices with annual revenue of £195 million, at £210 million – the Nokia deal values Symbian at only two times the revenue Yes, Symbian had a developer program – but not much of a mindshare in the wider community beyond that. Hence, I view Symbian more as software and less as platform

e) Browsers – Webkit is pursuing a software staretgy. This is successful but it is limited in contrast to a platform strategy (although Webkit is open sourced, most of the contributions are from big companies – most notably Apple - and not from grassroots developers)

f) The iPhone – is very significant player because of iTunes (and not only for the iPhone itself) – since iTunes is the foundation of Apple’s platform strategy and is a very significant part of it’s go to market platform.

g) Android v.s Limo - Android is a platform. Limo is mainly software. Contrary to popular comparisons in the industry – the two are not the same. See iphone vs. Symbian vs. Android vs. Limo vs. Ovi : We cannot compare an ecosystem with an operating system

h) Content aggregators: With a few exceptions like buongiorno who are extending their scope of influence by acquisitions - , most of the mobile content aggregators are stuck in the middle – and will not be able to gain mindshare in light of competition from others in the value chain.

OPERA MOBILE 9.5 - LEVERAGING THE WEB AS A PLATFORM
All this brings us to the Opera announcement last week. I will have a detailed post about it soon – but I will cover a specific aspect here: i.e. Dragon fly - Dragonfly is more than a Web based debugger for the mobile browser .. it heralds the maturity of the Web as a development platform for the Mobile browser. The browser becomes the tool to leverage the Web as a platform. This has already happened on the desktop so it makes sense that the mobile should follow - alongwith the principles of Mobile Web 2.0 . Opera believes in the vision of One Web . In order to make that a reality, you need equivalent experiences across devices. In order to ensure that the experience is equivalent, you will need first class debugging tools. So, in that context, Dragonfly is leveraging the Web as a platform through the browser across devices(not just the mobile phone) since the Opera browser powers one of the most successful non mobile phone devices in recent times – the Nintendo Wii ). Thus, this leverage plus the historic synergies between Opera and the developer community – make Opera Mobile 9.5 a significant platform play.

I will write a longer blog about Opera Mobile 9.5 covering - Cloud computing, Gears, Widgets, Community interaction, the iPhone, impact on the wider ecosystem, mobile web 2.0, developer community, go to market strategy and so on ..

TO BE OR NOT TO BE ..
Hence, to recap - Opera Mobile 9.5 – much more than just the browser. It is a manifestation of the Web as a platform – spanning devices.

But the wider impact is more significant here -

The choice between pipe, software and platform - will be one which many will have to make – either by intent or by default.

Indecisiveness and uncertainty of knowledge are the major themes throughout Hamlet. A life of action v.s. a life of silent acceptance is a drama which is being played out today in our industry; leading to a choice akin to Hamlet which many in the Mobile data industry will have to make – sooner rather than later.

As usual comments welcome ..

Image source: http://files.list.co.uk/images/2007/08/16/Hamlet---Solo.jpg

Posted by ajit at 3:53 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

July 19, 2008

I am in Seattle mid Aug .. happy to meet/speak at any events ..

I am in Seattle mid Aug .. happy to meet/speak at any events .. attending Sigcomm 2008 (related to my PhD work) but i am happy to meet or speak at any events if we can manage it. Email me at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com if possible

Posted by ajit at 8:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 17, 2008

Congrats Opera - Opera mobile 9.5 released ..

Congrats Opera - Opera mobile 9.5 released ..

Great news from a great company .. and many interesting features like Gears and Mobile Ajax - I will do a longer blog later - but for now - kudos to the great guys at Opera

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July 16, 2008

10 ways for Operators to save money ..

This is good. well worth reading! 10 ways for Operators to save money ..

Posted by ajit at 10:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Corporate blogging, Conversations, Enterprise 2.0 and the speaker’s corner

Last week, I conducted a course at Oxford university about Web 2.0 and social networking. I have done this now for about two years and the audience is corporate(and not students).

One of the questions raised by an attendee was: Why should people in companies blog? Is there REALLY a value for corporate bloggers (and we use the term 'blogging' loosely to include twitter, video blogging , facebook and so on)

This is a common question - and extends often to saying that I don’t have anything interesting to say, my company will block it, etc etc ..

I take a much more people centric view to blogging .. after all - my blog discussions range from complex wireless topics like - iphone vs. Symbian vs. Android vs. Limo vs. Ovi : We cannot compare an ecosystem with an operating system to Johnny Cash doing Elvis impersonations / Bo Diddley' and 'Tom and Jerry' – Of Tom and Jerry and craving the friction of a human being

My response was:

A good blogger is someone who - if they go and spoke at Speaker's corner in Hyde park - would still be able to attract a crowd!(speaker's corner is an open air, impromptu debating platform)

While this may sound extreme, the principle is valid - because the content matters.

However, unlike Hyde park, this not a one way but rather a two way conversation

So, I say .. the content does not matter THAT much - but rather the ability to start a conversation matters MORE .. and to experiment, learn and evolve from that conversation matters MOST OF ALL.

So, that’s my advice to all the closet corporate bloggers .. Experiment .. engage in the conversation .. and start small and evolve from there ..

There is also the secondary reason for blogging and that is - it helps you to build your own brand - within but also outside your company(In uncertain economic climates - your personal brand had even more value)

Interestingly enough, ALL communications related to enterprise may end up as conversations. This is not some kind of utopian, woolly dream - but it is really happening. Today, we have a PR agency in the Conversation group dedicated solely to creating and facilitating market conversations - which is very interesting and I see a HUGE potential market for this – and will watch it with interest!

On Thursday evening, I am speaking at the mashup event on Enterprise 2.0 on a panel along with speakers like JP Rangaswami - Managing Director, Service Design for BT Design and Carl Bate - Vice President, Chief Technology Officer, Capgemini UK

I hope I can continue this conversation there! If you are attending this event, let’s speak

Image source: wikipedia

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July 14, 2008

Wikipedia as a reputation system

After speaking to Tantek Celik (thanks Tantek for the nice pocket cheat sheet on microformats at supernova!) and Dr John Breslin , I am increasingly becoming a fan of Micorformats .

Microformats offer significant potential for a number of reasons

a) We are seeiing increasing support from vendors for microformats – Open Social with FOAF, sixapart with technologies like OpenID, the Microformats hCard and XFN, and FOAF , the RDF autdiscovery firefox plugin among others ..

b) Microformats are key drivers behind data portability and social network portability

c) Microformats lend themselves to the mobile web because any format that fosters bite sized content and social networks is beneficial for the mobile web

In this blog, I am going to explore something beyond Microformats .. Let’s call it a ‘Wikipedia reputation system’ for the lack of a better word .. And I am seeking to address two different problems –

a) With Wikipedia – we have a reputation problem – i.e. an 'expert' who may know more may not be actually represented on the Wikipedia article. But - Is this a really a problem? I.e. how do you say who is the expert? Will the views of a few keep knowledge closed to the many?

b) With the semantic web – we have a different problem. Specifically – who will do the semantics for the semantic web and why?(in other words, add semantic information to the Web so that it can be program readable)

But let’s first start with a site called Naymz – which aims to be a reputation site on the web However, such initiatives have a problem. If my ‘reputation’ depends on updating someone else's site - then basically it means - If I win the Nobel prize BUT forget to update that site, then my reputation is low – irrespective of my achievements

There are many variants of this theme but they have the same ‘Nobel prize’ problem - and that’s why most people who already have a good reputation will not join a site like this since the good reputation there depends on how many people you invite etc etc i.e. contributing to the site.
Essentially, it is Google bait .. (*Your free premium placement will typically appear on the first page of Google results in the 'Sponsored Links' section for searches on your name. Placements are limited to $10 in spend. We reserve the right to remove or discontinue placements at any time.) And you can even pay to repair your reputation

All this CAN be useful to people (for example visibility on Google)– so Naymz may indeed be a good business but in my view, that’s not a true reputation system

However, that does not mean we don’t need a global reputation system ..

One possibility for a global reputation system is Wikipedia with microformats

Wikipedia could be improved by a reputation system .. However, that reputation system has to be emergent ..

One solution( which could utilize Microformats) is to consider an iterative refinement of an article i.e. start with an article but keep refining it. Wikipedia does this anyway - but it does not lend itself to that mechanism. So, I am saying more of a threaded discussion from which expertise would emerge

This is almost like making the 'discuss' page of Wikipedia more visible and then putting people who made the best changes on to the main page i.e. experts will emege by their actions in the discussions when their changes have been accepted(a reputation system) from their activity on a globally neutral system(unlike ebay which is a closed, non portable reputation).
At the moment Wikipedia does not act as a reputation system i.e. the people who make the changes are not visible on Wikipedia and are not treated as experts as such

So, if Wikipedia becomes a defacto reputation system - then it becomes more interesting.

Now, add microformats to the mix – and we solve two problems at one stroke .. Wikipedia gets a richer framework since people can be motivated to add contextual information to make their content searchable (and that act directly benefits them anyway) and microformats get their semantics .. and the world gets an open reputation system

Why Wikipedia? Because we need something global, independent and neutral to which we all contribute content and contributing that content with semantics will help Wikipedia with its reputation problem and the semantic web with its semantic motivation problem. And we, as consumers could get a global reputation system

As usual thoughts welcome

Posted by ajit at 12:31 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

July 13, 2008

Which telegraphs do we still hang on to?

This may be one of my shortest blogs and carnival of the mobilists entry .. But it may be interesting. In my Web 2.0, social networking course at Oxford university which I conduct – one of the participants L Joop Quist President of Graydon holdings mentioned that – when the landline phone was new – people used to call just to check if the telegraph had arrived! So, that makes me think - as we go to the mobile web, what ‘telegraphs’ are we clinging on to?

Thanks Joop for your participation and feedback

Posted by ajit at 10:10 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

July 11, 2008

Cost per related audience

OVERVIEW
Peter Drucker, widely regarded as the father of modern management said that - What gets measured gets managed . Between the eras of Web 1.0 to Web 2.0 – the advertising model on the Web has now reached maturity. However, the advertising model on the social web(social networks) – is far from accepted. One of the reasons for this is the lack of relevant metrics since existing metrics like CPM do not apply to social networks.

The mathematical theories underlying social networks have existed for some time now. Also, online social networks have become mainstream. However, the applicability of the advertising model to social networks remains the missing link – the solution of which is commercially very significant especially if it is computable as a metric.

In a nutshell, we need a set of quantifiable advertising metrics (like CPM) - applicable to social networks. In previous blogs, I discussed the calculation of Personal CPM. In this blog, we discuss the idea behind Cost per related audience(CPRA). CPRA involves the concept of identifying a set of related profiles within a social network by navigating the social graph. Consequently, the advertiser would ‘buy’ advertising against a set of profiles through a metric called Cost per related audience. Further, reputation within the social network can be used to further refine the results. All the above factors are quantifiable within a social network - (including reputation) – and thus we can create a truly useful metric that can benefit advertisers

BACKGROUND
In previous blogs, I had been exploring the idea of how to measure personal CPM. (Calculating personal CPM and extending the idea of personal CPM beyond the Web to Telecoms) and the belief that we need new metrics if we are to get the support of advertisers for Web 2.0 applications and user generated content.

In this blog, we extend that discussion to other metrics beyond Personal CPM.

For the purposes of this discussion:

a) The unit of advertisement (i.e. against which the advertiser places an advertisement) is a social networking profile. Note that we can place advertisements against other objects in a social network (and hence lead to different metrics – maybe a topic for a follow-on blog ) but for now – let us consider the profile as a target unit of advertisement.

b) We take the principles of personalised advertising as a given. Traditional channels like TV are a mass market, interruptive medium for advertising. Advertising in such media is not personalised to the audience. Today, with the rise of the Web, most of us accept the idea that advertising should be personalised and targeted to the user.

c) The profile on social networks is one dimensional – it can be enhanced in many ways for instance by including social(relationship/network/social graph), behavioural(incorporating roles) and demographic profiling(traditional segmentation)

Extending the above ideas ..

a) If we extrapolate the idea of personal CPM, the next logical unit for advertisements is to consider is a ‘group of profiles’ – i.e. advertisements against a ‘related audience’ defined by a collection of related profiles.

b) If we are to target a relevant audience within a social network, then a ‘shotgun’ approach would be to place advertisements against a ‘group’ (such as a facebook group). However, that does not solve the problems mentioned in my previous blogs (for instance a group about ‘Nike’ may not be flattering to Nike – and hence not a place where Nike might want to advertise against)

A more interesting and sophisticated approach is to identify the relevant audience by navigating the social graph. Consequently, the advertiser would ‘buy’ advertising against a set of profiles through a metric called ‘Cost per related audience’

THE MISSING LINK
The term ‘social graph’ is currently in vogue – even more so after it was popularised by Brad Fitzpatrick(now at Google) . The social graph and its applications are now becoming significant because of the emergence of Web based social networks. However, the principles underlying social networks
and Graph theory have been with us since as early as 1736 following a paper written Leonhard Euler on the Seven Bridges of Königsberg in that year

However, while Graph theory exists in it’s mathematical form and the usage of social graphs have become popular due to the rise of social networking, the application of the advertising model to social networks via the social graph remains a missing link – the solution of which is commercially very significant especially if it is quantifiable through metrics

THE SOCIAL NETWORK
The application of advertising models to social networks can be an extensive and a complex subject since there are many possibilities.

Adapted from Wikipedia, we can describe social network analysis as follows

A social network is a social structure made of nodes (which are generally individuals or organizations) that are tied by one or more specific types of interdependency, such as values, visions, ideas, financial exchange, friendship, kinship, dislike, conflict or trade. The resulting structures are often very complex.
Social network analysis views social relationships in terms of nodes and ties. Nodes are the individual actors within the networks, and ties are the relationships between the actors.
In its simplest form, a social network is a map of all of the relevant ties between the nodes being studied. The network can also be used to determine the social capital of individual actors. These concepts are often displayed in a social network diagram, where nodes are the points and ties are the lines.

An overview of social networks at orgnet and a simple diagram below offers some initial ideas based on social network analysis

Remember that our goal is to find a set of related profiles which are suitable for advertising based on a topic.

We are concerned here with the location of actors in the network – measurement of which gives the centrality of a node. The computation of centrality in turn gives us the roles and groupings within the network. A connection exists between two nodes if they regularly talk/interact with each other. The above diagram illustrates three types of centrality : Degree Centrality, Betweenness Centrality, and Closeness Centrality.

Degree centrality represents the number of direct connections a node has – for instance Dianne has the highest degree in the above diagram (hub). In contrast, Heather has few direct connections - but exhibits a high level of betweenness since she lies between two important constituencies and hence has a higher power. Finally, while Fernando has fewer connections than Dianne, he has the shortest path to all others in the network – and hence Fernando has the highest visibility into the information flow within the network.

Thus, even the most rudimentary analysis exhibits relations between profiles which can be used to find related profiles to advertise against.

REPUTATION AS A CURRENCY
How else could we extend this?

The underlying ‘currency’ of a social network is the reputation of it’s members – and by navigating the social graph and complementing it with reputation metrics – we can create truly useful metrics that can benefit advertisers. Note that all the above factors are quantifiable within a social network - (including reputation) are quantifiable.

CONCLUSIONS
• The mathematical theories underlying social networks have existed for some time now.

• Online social networks have become mainstream.

• However, the applicability of the advertising model to social networks remains the missing link – the solution of which is commercially very significant especially if it is computable as a metric.

• We need a set of quantifiable advertising metrics (like CPM) - applicable to social networks.

• ‘Cost per related audience’(CPRA). CPRA involves the concept of identifying the relevant audience within a social network by navigating the social graph.

• The advertiser would ‘buy’ advertising against a set of profiles through a metric called ‘Cost per related audience’.

• Further, reputation within the social network can be used to further refine the results.

• All the above factors are quantifiable within a social network - (including reputation) – and thus we can create a truly useful metric that can benefit advertisers

Posted by ajit at 10:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 9, 2008

Web 2.0 , user generated content and social networking course - Hong Kong

Hello
I am in Hong Kong again at the end of this month repeating a course I did on Mobile Web 2.0 last month. In addition, this month the organizors have also introduced a new workshop called Web 2.0 , user generated content and social networking course. Details below.

Since this was introduced at a short notice to leverage my time in Hong Kong - I would be very interested if you can help introduce it to someone you know. It is similar to the course I run at Oxford University - but more comprehensive since spanning over two days

Registration: HERE ( http://webtech.comp.polyu.edu.hk/registration.htm )

Many thanks for your help with this course

Posted by ajit at 9:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Dr Mike Short - Congratulations!!

Mike Short, Vice President of Research and Development at Telefonica O2 Europe has been a great friend and inspiration to many in the industry - including me. He wrote the foreword for my first book when I was a virtual unknown in the industry and has always supported my work. So, it was great to see that Mike Short is Dr Mike Short as reported by Martyn Warwick of Telecomtv. As the article says - it could not have happened to a nicer chap. Compliments Dr Mike Short!

article below
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Mike Short: The Doctor is in
09/07/2008 08:46:00 - by Martyn Warwick

I am delighted to be able to report that Mike Short, the vice president of Research and Development at Telefonica O2 Europe and a longtime and firm friend of us here at TelecomTV has been awarded an honorary doctoral degree by the UK's Staffordshire University. It is well-deserved recognition for Mike's inestimable contributions to the mobile industry and really couldn't have happened to a nicer chap.

In his present role Mike Short is deeply involved in the development of some of the most innovative and compelling 3G mobile services in the world and is a man with boundless enthusiasms for the global mobile industry.

MIke has been an evangelist for mobile technologies and services from the very earliest days and became a director of Cellnet (now O2 UK) way back in 1989, when he was responsible for the company's big infrastructure investments.

Four years later he established Cellnet's groundbreaking GSM service and was also responsible for negotiating roaming agreements that allowed UK mobile subscribers to use their mobile handsets whilst overseas – a revolutionary idea that has had the most profound effects on the development and popularity of mobile telephony all over the world. In more recent years Mike Short has ben focusing on 3G technologies and services and is an infectious enthusiast for applications and services as diverse as mobile TV and wireless health.

That's his day job, but Mike is one of those people who seems to be able to squeeze 48 hours of work into 24. Thus he either has also been, or still is, chairman of both the GSM Association (GSMA) and the Mobile Data Association (MDA), an advisor to Ofcom, the UK's uber-regulator of telecoms and the media, the chair the UK Trade and Investment ICT Sector Advisory Board, advisor to the UK Radio Communications Agency and a director of Phonepayplus, the regulator of Britain's premium calling sector.

On top of that, Mike Short also came up with the idea of the prestigious Global Mobile Awards; has given evidence and tendered advice to British Parliamentary committees on the mobile industry and is also a Visiting Lecturer at Lancaster University, De Montfort University in Leicester, Surrey University and, of course, Staffordshire.

Mike is renowned for his affability, accessibility and deep industry knowledge.

Continues after advertisement.

He also knows just about everyone in it. If Bill Clinton is Rolodex Man, famous for maintaining contact with everybody he's ever met, Mike Short is his equivalent in the global telecoms sector, except that he uses rather more up-to-date technology than a Rolodex to maintain his seemingly inexhaustible list of contacts.

Ask Mike any question about almost any aspect of telecoms and if he can't immediately answer it himself he will be able, instantly, to provide you with several contacts who will be able to help.

Well done Doctor Short. An academic honour for an honourable man,

Posted by ajit at 5:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 6, 2008

Mobile Web Megatrends ..

Following my previous blog about Mobile Web Megatrends - many thanks for your feedback and also about requests for this event i.e. what exactly is the Mobile Web Megatrends all about ..

So, here is some more information ..

Last year, I chaired a conference called Mobile Web Americas in Orlando – Florida. With participation from Nokia, Google, Opera and others – this event was a huge success. After that event, I mentioned to Larry Lockhart(the organizer of Mobile Web Americas) about the forumoxford event I co-chair in partnership with Oxford University – and that the forumoxford conference has a unique, homely feel to it but also a cutting edge technical excellence .. and how it would be nice to create something similar ‘across the pond’ in San Francisco/Silicon Valley.

Larry had not forgotten my comment apparently ..

A few months ago .. he came back with an update about Mobile Web Americas ..

It had become bigger and better .. and was going to be called Mobile Web Strategies 2008 and was going to be a partner event with CTIA .. to be held at the Moscone centre ..

Would I like to chair it again ..

And ofcourse I said yes ..

He then reminded me of my comment last year .. Mobile Web Strategies is to be held on Sep 9 in the Moscone centre .. That leaves Sep 8(a Monday ..).

Would I be interested in creating a smaller, focussed – maybe more detailed event covering specific topics ..

And thus was born the idea of Mobile Web Megatrends ..

This will be the first event I create in America from the ground up .. and it’s great to have an experienced partner like Larry. It is also a part of a broader futuretext strategy to have a greater presence in America.. so I hope we do this right!

The simple idea behind Mobile Web Megatrends is to create a small, niche event focused on developments that are key to the Mobile Web currently(2008/2009)

This means that the event will be much more focussed and granular .. for instance - we don’t want to talk about 'Nokia' but rather about Nokia S40 6th edition which has implications for the mass market. Similarly, this year due to a changed licensing model, Adobe is also very interesting - so we want to cover Adobe ..

It will also have a much more interactive focus

Based on feedback, we have now updated my original list to a set of potential topics below (note that this is an indicative list only at this stage ..)

• The evolution of the browser(Opera, Nokia)
• Location based services 2.0 - (Cell id databases)
• APIs - network(GSMA, OpenAjax, Bondi)
• Widgets
• Advertising models including analytics
• Mobile social networks
• iPhone (including iStore)
• Android
• Nokia S40 6th edition – the impact on mass market phones
• Flashlite
• Mobile Web demographics – the numbers, uptake figures, impact of flat rate etc
• Browser plugins
• Enterprise and Mobile Web
• Cloud computing
• Emerging markets
• QR codes and
• Offline browsing

We decided to keep it only $195 – and with a limited audience, I think the tickets will sell fast …

The date will be Sep 8 – the venue will be somewhere in San Francisco or the bay area.

If you are interested in attending, speaking or sponsoring .. please contact me at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com

Many thanks to Kevin Leong, Russell Buckley, Jeff Sonstein, Dean Bubley, Alex Kerr, Al Briggs, C Enrique Ortiz, Paul Golding and Michael Mace and others for their feedback

Posted by ajit at 10:54 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Calculating the personal CPM and extending the idea of personal CPM beyond the Web to IMS

In a previous blog, I discussed how Long tail social network analysis could be a business model for Web 2.0

The key insights are

a) The Web has a higher CPM since the search is tied to the intent

b) For various reasons as indicated in the above blog, we cannot get the same synergies between advertising and social networks

c) New metrics are needed in the social network space if we are to get advertisers to support social networking sites

The question is – which metrics do we need?

I ended that article saying that: but mapping a rich, dynamic profile to a segmented long tail may lead to advertisements that may reflect the user's social intent (just like Google captures the transactional intent) .. and hence provide higher revenues – and consequently a business model for Web 2.0 by making the advertisement model profitable

One of the most interesting metrics I can see is the idea of personal CPM.

First put forward by Marian Salzman , and later picked up in a blog by Charlene Li, the idea of personal CPM can be explained as per below from Rodger Roeser’s blog

Personal" takes a real person. Marketers have always known that personal recommendations are the most powerful form of brand advocacy. And thanks to interactive technologies, personal recommendations are no longer limited by physical constraints; consumers can forge wide networks of kindred spirits and virtual friends. As more and more people participate in these networks, they will come to rival traditional media-born advertising in terms of influence.

Watch for millions of influential individuals to develop their equivalent of a personal CPM rate card. A personal CPM assumes that people are their own media properties and, as such, should be applied some worth by the brands they advocate. The larger and more influential their social networks, the more valuable these individuals are and the higher the CPM they will be able to command. But as their influence grows, they will need to remain truly objective—consumers are too savvy to trust those who recommend the brands that pay them the most.

This is interesting .. but how to calculate the Personal CPM?

The personal CPM can be tied to a richer personal profile. Many of the elements the rich profile already exist. The three dimensions of a rich profile include Social(relationship/network/social graph), Behavioural(incorporating roles) and Demographic profiling(traditional segmentation)

A lot can be derived from a profile as this paper from MIT called Social Network Profiles as Taste Performances by Hugo Liu shows

Abstract
This study examines how a social network profile's lists of interests—music, books, movies, television shows, etc.—can function as an expressive arena for taste performance. By composing interest tokens around a theme, profile users craft their "taste statements." First, socioeconomic and aesthetic influences on taste are considered, and the expressivity of interest tokens is analyzed using a semiotic framework. Then, a grounded theory approach is taken to identify four types of taste statements—those that convey prestige, differentiation, authenticity, and theatrical persona. The semantics of taste and taste statements are further investigated through a statistical analysis of 127,477 profiles collected from the MySpace social network site between November 2006 and January 2007. The major findings of the analysis include statistical evidence for prestige and differentiation taste statements and an interpretation of the taste semantics underlying the MySpace community—its motifs, paradigms, and demographic structures.
Thus, the ‘rich’ profile (by that I mean a multidimensional profile which reflects reputation, the long tail segmentation and other factors – not just the personal attributes ) now becomes a measure of the personal CPM. Perhaps the CPM to be similar to a page rank i.e. a ranking from one to ten.

However, this gets more interesting if we extend the idea of the personal CPM to a converged environment. Specifically, with the telecoms/mobile(and increasingly fixed and cable) industries as well .. we are seeing the deployment of IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem) IMS has a feature called HSS – which maintains a rich profile including user attributes, location and many other elements

Thus, I think Personal CPM may also be a unique business model for IMS and telecoms and within a social network, advertisers will compete to ‘advertise on’ the profiles of the people with the highest personal CPMs/reputations.

I am still exploring these ideas – so all comments welcome both from the advertising /social media side and from the HSS side

Posted by ajit at 7:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 5, 2008

seeking feedback: what are the mobile web megatrends

Hello
I am creating an event/workshop called Mobile Web Megatrends

I am looking for key developments this year and next year(2008/2009)

So, in my view the Mobile Web Megatrends in 2008/2009 are

a) The evolution of the browser(Opera, Nokia)
b) Location based services 2.0 - (Cell id databases)
c) APIs - network(GSMA, OpenAjax, Bondi)
d) Widgets
e) Advertising models including analytics
f) Mobile social networks
g) iPhone
h) Android

What else?

What more can you add?

Many thanks
kind rgds
Ajitt

Posted by ajit at 7:22 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

July 4, 2008

Happy fouth of July to our friends in America ..

Happy Fouth of July to our friends in America ..

Image source: http://bluerulzz.blogspot.com/2007/07/happy-fourth-of-july-2007.html

Posted by ajit at 10:54 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 3, 2008

Bettymills company - supernova: Innovative marketing approach ..

This promotion was the first for me .. And a token of appreciation - I thought I should encourage Betty Mills. At the Supernova 2008 event, the Betty Mills company had free breakfast and snacks .. In return for any bloggers in the conference blogging about them .. For all my conference attending, this is a first - so I thought I should thank them for their excellent food with good variety(always important for someone like me with some allergies ..)

Posted by ajit at 5:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Long tail social network analysis – A business model for Web 2.0

I am working on some ideas for my course at Oxford University next week about Web 2.0 and user generated content .. And here is one ..

It is motivated by two articles:
Firstly, a business model for Web 2.0 is elusive .. Yes, we can talk about the advertising business model .. But that has not yet worked as the financial times argues in the article Web 2.0 fails to produce cash and secondly - this great article from the MIT technology review articulates the problem brilliantly ..

The problem
Synergies between advertisements and social networking / web 2.0 are yet to be found ..

As facebook found out much to it’s dismay with it’s Beacon program – that advertising on social networks is not easy .. and I summarise the problem from the MIT technology review article ..

Yes, sites have impressive user numbers ..

Ning has 267,787 sites, Bebo sees 22 million visitors a month, Club Penguin sees five million, LinkedIn gets nearly five million unique visits. Facebook saw 33.9 million unique U.S. visitors in January 2008, and MySpace saw nearly 72 million unique visitors in the same month.

However .. getting revenue is a problem .. although facebook is valued at $15 billion dollars, it is still likely to lose money and Google has been unable to monetise it’s $900 million investment in MySpace . CPMs on social networks are also a problem .. Facebook sets a minimum CPM of $0.15 for its "social ads," and the MySpace banner ad rate stands at a CPM of less than $2.

The problem has four facets:

a) Unsuitable metrics – CPM may not be the best indicator of social network analysis

b) Attention(rather lack thereof)

c) Privacy and

d) Content

These problems are well known and well discussed in the above article .. for instance – unlike with Google – users do not go to social networks with a specific intent. Hence they are not very receptive to advertisements and are in any case distracted by a wide variety of communication tools(such as microblogging). Privacy is also an issue as facebook found out recently and so is the content(i.e. user generated content may not be always suitable for advertising and it is necessary to have at least a moderation function – if not more for it)

The solution?
Traditional approaches have been based on targeting but targeting alone is not enough since it hits only a small target but ignores the wider audience(long tail).

One idea I am exploring is as follows . It is based on the following concepts

a) Social networks by their nature can be segmented over the long tail – this idea is explored in the concept of the Long tail is chunky

b) The profile on social networks is one dimensional – it can be enhanced in many ways for instance by including social(relationship/network/social graph), behavioural(incorporating roles) and demographic profiling(traditional segmentation)

Such a rich/multidimensional/dynamic profile(I call it dynamic since it depends on social relationships and changes over time) – actually maps well over the segmented long tail. So, the end result would be still to advertise against the profile but such an advertisement will incorporate a lot more than the static profile .. it will include an element of the user’s digital footprint(hence their intent) which is dynamic

This still leaves the problem of metrics .. but mapping a rich, dynamic profile to a segmented long tail may lead to advertisements that may reflect the user’s social intent (just like Google captures the transactional intent) .. and hence provide higher revenues – and consequently a business model for Web 2.0 by making the advertisement model profitable

Thoughts?

Posted by ajit at 1:22 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

July 2, 2008

The thin mobile client: The story of HSDPA and how the device may fade away into the SIM ..

Like many of my blogs, this one comes out of extrapolating a conversation – in this case, two separate conversations – and I have extended ideas from these conversations. It is a bit of a gedankenexperiment

So .. Here we go .. Thoughts welcome ..

Inspite of many optimistic (non SMS) data projections year on year from around 2000 – Operators missed them all. They tried WAP, they tried MVNOs, they tried all sorts of bundles .. And notably although flatrate was a key driver to increased data .. Flat rate alone was not enough ..

Something else was needed ..

And suddenly .. in 2007 or thereabouts .. they started hitting data projections ., and what was the cause? Ironically, there were two (seemingly mutually contradictory developments) that have led to the uptake of Mobile data …

The first(which everyone is focussing on) is the Smartphone/ iPhone .. i.e. rich device(and by that I mean Nokia N95, iPhone, Android and others collectively) .. these developments have created a device which is valued by the customer –considering the buzz around the iPhone, and Nokia being rated as the best ‘Operator’ in a survey .. :)

However, there is a second(almost directly contradictory) story here ..

The biggest cause of uptake of Mobile data is HSDPA (mobile broadband) .. and like SMS – no expert/consultant/guru predicted this – with the possible exception of Dean Bubley in my view

The success of HSDPA has some unique characteristics
a) The ‘device’ is absent – and in fact – it fades away into the SIM to a ‘bare bones’ data service(no more than a SIM)

b) Because the device is absent .. the Operator brand is strongest – which suits the operators

c) We don’t have to worry about interoperabity, interconnectivity etc. It is a simple service that works .. and people are prepared to pay a premium for it

Admittedly, it is an access layer technology and not a service layer technology .. How do we extend this access layer technology to the services layer? Potentially .. by extending the only common element i.e. the SIM

This is not unexpected since both the device(and also the SIM) are at the edge of the network .. and ironically, one would say that if intelligence shifts to the edge of the network, then the intelligent SIM is a way to go if we want to extend one of the few mobile data successes beyond the access layer.

And ironically, the SIM is becoming intelligent through a technology called SCWS which I have been following for some time now

The SIM started off as a means to identify the subscriber to the network, but it could take on a much bigger role as an enabler of mobile services .. especially if the precedence of HSDPA is something to go by – and SIM being the only network element in that configuration(which also functions as the client element)

This is the opposite of the ‘smart client’ model .. and in computer science terms may be viewed as a thin client service .. analogous to the ideas from Citrix

So, what I am saying is .. the success of HSDPA could ironically lead to a set of thin client devices – powered by the SIM ..

Thoughts?

Posted by ajit at 9:41 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

GSMA 3rd Party Access initiative - URL

In relation to the previous blog on GSMA 3rd Party Access initiative - API enabing the network operator, as per comments by
Graham Trickey (Technical Director GSMA), the URL to register is HERE https://gsma.securespsite.com/access/entry

Posted by ajit at 12:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 1, 2008

virtualisation on a mobile handset

virtualisation on a mobile handset sounds an interesting development .. thoughts?

Posted by ajit at 8:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

GSMA 3rd Party Access initiative - API enabing the network operator

I have long talked about Operators allowing third party access to network APIs. This ‘holy grail’ for developers has come closer one step with the GSMA 3rd Party Access (Access) initiative which aims to identify and provide means for 3rd parties to more effectively and efficiently utilise operator network and service capabilities

I think this is truly a positive step and Kevin Smith (Vodafone)/GSMA & Graham Trickey (Technical Director GSMA) have been kind enough to keep me updated about this initiative.

I think this is a positive step and I fully endorse it(just as I have historically supported other pragmatic Operator led initiatives like Vodafone Betavine. So, if you are interested please comment here but also join the initiative via the link(coming soon)

In this context, 3rd parties are Web content and service providers, namely Websites and client applications that access services over HTTP. The goal is to stimulate innovation; facilitate development and deployment; and increase portability between operators. This will improve the mobile Web user experience, and hence benefit users, operators and providers.

GSMA 3rd Party Access (Access) initiative is a project run by the GSMA, supported by 10 operators with a global footprint, aims to deliver ‘sandbox’ APIs in 2008 and live implementations in 2009. The project is being run as an open Web beta, with collaboration encouraged from Web developers, network vendors, operators and aggregators. This will ensure relevance and quality of the APIs. The project will reuse parts of existing standards, documented in a way so as to be more easily used by Web developers. An SDK featuring tests, tutorials and a Wiki will be available. As well as facilitating technical portability of applications/web content, the project aims to simplify the sign-up process for smaller developers working with operators.

This initiative benefits all parties and benefits include:

a) Reducing fragmentation : Multiple proprietary APIs means only 3rd parties with sufficient resources can develop and maintain integrated applications. This creates a barrier to entry for smaller, innovative players and wastes resources at the larger 3rd parties.

b) Avoids operator dis-intermediation: A closed set of fragmented APIs has led to 3rd party frustration. As such any ‘workaround’ API that offers near-equivalent functionality is attractive to 3rd parties. Users and developers will find a way to apply services via mobile even if it means disintermediating the operator.

c) Open API in line with Mobile Web 2.0 : A common API implemented by all operators reduces the barrier to entry for mobile Web content and services. Less 3rd party time and resources are spent integrating, so more can be spent on innovating. 3rd parties benefit if time to market is reduced and new services can be launched across multiple operators through a single codebase.

d) Can complement operator developer portals : These portals aim to produce compelling applications, which is also the goal of the common API. The operator dev portals may choose to offer proprietary APIs on top of the GSMA core set, in order to differentiate their network

e) Third party access: The API allows a 3rd party to invoke a method and get a standard response from participating operators. The API must be exposed over HTTP(s), but beyond that the implementation is not prescribed: it is up to the operator to integrate into their existing gateway for network and SDP enablers. The Access API can co-exist with Proprietary APIs for incumbent partners

f) Possibility of long tail applications: Operators cannot easily predict Web innovations
…but by providing a common API, we can encourage them on the mobile Web. By reducing the barrier to 3rd party entry we reach out to The Long Tail of customers desiring niche services

And finally .. I like this analogy with the crown jewels from the GSMA ..

The APIs provide a unique customer relationship (identity, activity, billing)… …but like the real Crown Jewels, they can create revenue by being securely and publicly exposed. Hide them away, and people will go elsewhere…. Only joint commitment will ensure success and avoid fragmentation

To conclude ..
The benefit to Web Developers increases as more operators per territory adopt the API…The value to operators increases as more Web developers let us know what they want from a common API…. meaning the value of the mobile Web grows.

Please register at the project portal to contribute requirements to the APIs:
Update: As per comment from Graham Trickey below
Please note that the URL for the 3rd Party Access Portal is HERE

Posted by ajit at 7:49 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack

The advertising business model, the Web and the Mobile Web

Here is something I am thinking of – triggered by the latest issue of Fortune magazine

The question I am asking here is:
If the online advertising business model is expected to double in two years from $40 billion to $80 billion .. How can some of the revenue from the Web advertising extend to the Mobile domain?

On one hand,
as per fortune magazine

Ballmer et al. believe that online advertising is the business where its greatest potential revenue and profit growth lie. So far only about $40 billion of the world's $500 billion in ad spending has moved online. But Ballmer expects the Internet portion to be $80 billion in just two years. While total worldwide spending on business technology is much bigger, around $1.6 trillion, it isn't growing nearly so fast.

And more from the Guardian ..
Besieged US newspaper journalists face final deadline
In the first three months of this year, print advertising sales by American newspapers charted their biggest drop since records began in 1971. And it was the eighth quarterly drop in a row. Advertisers spent $8.43bn on newspaper ads in the first three months of 2008, a 14 per cent decline on the same period last year, according to the Newspaper Association of America. The appalling state of the US economy is largely to blame this time around, as property and recruitment ads - the newspaper industry's bread and butter - are surplus to requirements in a downturn.

On the other hand,
the mobile data industry laments that the ad agencies don’t seem to be getting it when it comes to mobile advertising (What matters for mobile advertising)

However, there is a third perspective ..
I mentioned in a recent blog
iphone vs. Symbian vs. Android vs. Limo vs. Ovi : We cannot compare an ecosystem with an operating system

The opportunity in making Web services(this includes content accessed from RSS feeds, email, IM etc) usable on mobile is huge – technologically this is similar to mobile SAAS - but in business model terms – it needs the advertising business model to make it work - simply because there is no other revenue model that can work.

Why?

Because the information is available mostly for free on the Web(or we have services like email which are also free on the Web). It is not possible to charge a premium for this service just because it is ‘mobile’(A lesson which many in the mobile industry doggedly refuse to accept!). You see the same problems with companies that try to monetise mobile widgets. Instead, the service becomes free and ad funded.

And the question we have to ask ourselves is
If the online advertising business model is expected to double in two years from $40 billion to $80 billion .. How can some of the revenue from the Web advertising extend to the Mobile domain?

The answer, as I see it, is to take a unified view – of the Web and the Mobile Web together. And in this case, the Web is the driver(not mobile). (I once said that you should not think of Mobile Web 2.0 – rather you should think of Web Mobile 2.0 i.e. the Web is the stronger part. – that did NOT go well in an audience of telecoms execs :) )

However, if we look at the Web and the Mobile Web holistically, then it all makes a lot of sense
a) A unified view of the Web and the Mobile Web lends critical mass which the mobile lacks due to fragmentation
b) The services originating from the Web can be subsidised by advertising on mobile devices
c) The advertising is targeted / personalised within the context of the critical mass(this is important since I don’t believe that personalization on it’s own will work and critical mass is a pre-requisite to personalization )

So, to conclude
a) Advertising on the Web is expected to take off substantially over the next two years

b) By viewing the Web and the Mobile Web holistically – we could capture some of that new advertising revenue on to mobile devices

c) Specifically, services that are present on the Web can be accessed on mobile devices through subsidization by the ad model – this includes content accessed from RSS feeds, email, IM etc(and I think only the ad model will work for these because people will not pay on the mobile for content which is free on the web)

d) We can thus balance both critical mass and personalization

Thoughts?

Posted by ajit at 11:54 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

I am speaking at the next mashup event on Enterprise 2.0

I am speaking at the next mashup event on Enterprise 2.0. You can learn about Mashup events through the mashup events website. If you are interested in Enterprise 2.0, I look forward to meeting you at this event

Posted by ajit at 10:57 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 30, 2008

Carnival of the mobilists No 130 at Andrew Grill's blog ..

Carnival of the mobilists No 130 is at Andrew Grill's blog . Well worth reading as usual

Posted by ajit at 5:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Good white paper from Xtract about advertising and social intelligence ..

Good white paper from Xtract about advertising and social intelligence. Link is HERE

The latest MIT Technology Review also talks about challenges of advertising in social media and about new solutions to really monetize communities.

Posted by ajit at 12:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 28, 2008

Book review: Next generation wireless applications by Paul Golding

I have recommended Paul Golding’s books in the past – and his new book Next generation wireless applications is also highly recommended.

Very few people can write a book of 600 pages on this topic .. and Paul is certainly one of those. It covers considerable technical depth and with an emphasis on new technologies like Mobile TV, coverage of both Mobile Web and Java applications development(including MIDP 3.0), emphasis on IMS, network elements including wimax, HSDPA etc

I have used the first version of this book as a reference book – and the same goes with this version.

The book is oriented to the relatively novice reader to orientate themselves in the mobile applications landscape in terms of technologies. It is also primarily oriented from the Operator perspective with chapters like 'Becoming an Operator 2.0'. In doing so, it is one of the few books that span the Internet and the telecoms technologies

The book is overwhelmingly about IP-related technologies used across the mobile-data network end-to-end.

There are generally two-levels of books

1. About mobile applications themselves from the industry trends, concepts and paradigms perspective
2. Technical books about software (e.g. developer books) or networks

Paul’s book is a systems level book somewhere between these two levels. It is based on the diagram of the ecosystem in the form of concentric rings (below) and the book then proceeds to cover the technologies in each layer extensively in 600 pages ...

I would have no hesitation in recommending this book and I hope you like it as well.

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Trusted flash?

Any views on Trusted flash? Is anyone using in?

My first impressions - it is content centric - so if it is only content then its media, movies etc etc .. this will face customer resistance .. Secure apps are more interesting(NFC for example) than secure content(which is more of interest to media companies)

From the link above ..

TrustedFlash™ Security Technology Platform

Create. Protect. Enjoy.
A N Y W H E R E™

The TrustedFlash platform, powered by TrustedFlash security technology, signals a new world of premium, digital content mobility using flash memory where protection and seamless portability go hand in hand. The TrustedFlash Forum gathers together leading companies within the mobile community who recognize the value to themselves and to users of a thriving ecosystem to support this platform.

The TrustedFlash platform is based on data-centric, rather than device-centric, security. This unique approach lets users access all of their data whether premium content, applications or service-related on any of their TrustedFlash-enabled devices. Now users can enjoy their music, videos, global positioning system (GPS) applications, games, mobile TV and e-Commerce applications on any of their TrustedFlash-enabled MP3/MP4 players, handsets, GPS stations and portable media players (PMP). A secure, multi-vendor environment gives them the freedom to download their data of choice from multiple providers, instead of only from a single provider. Now users can access all of their premium content/services on any of their mobile handsets within the operator’s network.

TrustedFlash security technology is at the heart of the TrustedFlash security platform. It securely stores sensitive digital data and applications on flash media, extending the trusted environment to include Secure Digital (SD™) cards, microSD™ cards, high-capacity SIM cards, USB flash drives and embedded flash drives. Built on international standards for cryptography and authentication, TrustedFlash security technology supports a variety of digital rights management (DRM) formats. It is comprised of these basic building blocks:

* Secure key session: random key encryption during data routing to/from the TrustedFlash-enabled device, multiple secure sessions, multiple simultaneous applications.

* Content encryption: TrustedFlash internal hidden keys, state-of-the-art cryptographic processor (RNG, AES, DES, 3DES, SHA1 Hash, PKI, key pair generation), on-the-fly encryption/decryption, advanced PKI and Trusted Time System.

* Multiple partitions: secure and public with on-the-fly dynamic allocation, hidden partition visible only to authenticated application, full integrity between discrete partitions.

* Secure storage modes
o TrustedFlash Playback: only authorized application can read the TrustedFlash encrypted content.
o DRM agnostic card: rights objects (ROs) are encrypted with TrustedFlash security keys and stored with the associated content in TrustedFlash-enabled device.
o TrustedFlash Playback + DRM: encrypted content and RO are encrypted internally with TrustedFlash security keys.

* Secure execution environment: customized card applications, install/uninstall/browse card applications, standard card applications such as one time password (OTP), multiple DRM scheme support, conditional access system (CAS), secure interoperable personal video recorder (PVR), preloaded secure content.

* Scalable platform, storage and security: Secure memory platform that can be extended with more storage and applications, choice of multiple protection levels that can be implemented per content/application.

Contact us for further information: info@trustedflashforum.com

View Frequently Asked Questions about the TrustedFlash security technology and platform.

Posted by ajit at 9:12 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 27, 2008

iphone vs. Symbian vs. Android vs. Limo vs. Ovi : We cannot compare an ecosystem with an operating system

The big news of this week was the open sourcing of the Symbian operating system. Having now had some time to think of this .. here are some more thoughts about this rather unexpected but seminal opengardens development

APPLES AND ORANGES
The title of this blog shows how often people compare the proverbial apples and oranges. It is not possible to compare Symbian vs. Android; or Symbian vs. iPhone .. because it is not possible to mix operating systems with ecosystems

iPhone, Ovi and Android are ecosystems. In contrast, Symbian and Limo are operating systems or Operating system consortia.

Thus, iPhone vs. Android vs. Ovi is a valid comparison(three ecosystems) as is Limo vs. Symbian(two operating systems) .. but NOT Android vs. Limo(an ecosystem vs. and operating system) .. and (not yet) Android vs. Symbian

By including the iPhone in this mix, you can see that I value the ecosystem vs. the operating system – and that is correct. If anything, the Symbian announcement shows conclusively that the mobile operating system is a commodity .. even when Symbian has shipped 150 million devices with annual revenue of £195 million, at £210 million – the Nokia deal values Symbian at only two times the revenue.

Now, let us consider the question of Open source ..

OPEN SOURCE
Open source conjures up images of geeks working late into the night for altruistic reasons and for peer recognition .. Indeed that’s one component of the story – and it is also the motivation behind the original success of Linux on the PC. However, there is another angle here .. companies are getting into the Open source play in a big way – i.e. creating code and then open sourcing it under specific open source licences(the license itself matters a lot and for a greater discussion of this issue see the blog Open source vs. Open Standards – complementing or competing?

There are many prominent examples of this approach .. Apple(and then Nokia) with Webkit, IBM with Apache, IBM(subsequently) with Linux

And why will companies give away code for free ..

Because everyone benefits if we have interoperable systems(i.e. no one driver for the code base) BUT at the same time – we will find that competitive advantage can be maintained depending on which open source license you adopt(see the link Open source vs. Open Standards – complementing or competing? above to see how Android exploits this idea brilliantly)

However, when it comes to Open source on mobile devices, we have yet another factor which comes into play i.e. the BOM(Bill of material) of the device. Software can play a part in reducing the Bill of materials (i.e. the combined hardware and software cost) – especially if it is modularised. This was the original reason why Linux was ported to mobile devices and also explains the rise of specialist Linux integration vendors like windriver

Thus, there are two audiences – developers and device manufacturers. It is debatable how many developers will benefit from an open source Symbian(or will toil through the night contributing code to it). The real question is – how many NEW device manufacturers will take up Symbian as an Operating system.

IMPACT ON THE MARKETPLACE
I believe that the biggest impact of this announcement will be on LIMO since it directly correlates to Symbain(in contrast to Android which is an ecosystem). Indeed LIPS(another Linux consortium) has folded up after this announcement into LIMO and interestingly Gartner analyst Carolina Milanesi dismisses LiMo as a major factor and calls it a PR machine.
Symbian is tested. It is now open source. It is familiar to developers. It is a safer bet if you want a pure OS.

The Jury is out – but the real question is – how many more device manufacturers will take up Symbian as an Operating system? How modularised is it for an OEM vendor(say from Taiwan) to take up and deploy? Etc etc.

In the blog Crossing the chasm with Android , I said that the key benefit of Android will be the emergence of new entrants into the devices market. In that sense, the Symbian announcement is good because it will allow more players to enter the devices space. Even then, we need to see more from Nokia. Symbian is not yet an ecosystem (like Android or even Ovi). It is merely an operating system.

MOBILE DEVICES AS A COMMODITY
Ultimately, not just the operating systems but the device itself may become commoditised. This is ironic since devices will become even more important - both for customers and for brands. However, they will also become cheaper, commoditised and modularised. Of all the companies, Nokia knows this best and for a year now Nokia has been busy reinventing itself as an Internet company – a truly far sighted vision that is paying off big time now. For the same reason Ovi is more relevant than Symbian / LiMo foundation and one to watch over time.

Indeed I see many more devices(from many more vendors) who will enter this space.

Interestingly, the LIMO foundation press release about the Symbian announcement says

We welcome the formation of Symbian Foundation as it follows behind the pioneering direction of LiMo Foundation which recognizes that the industry must coalesce on far fewer handset OS’s in order that innovation can be unblocked and far better propositions brought to consumers.

I disagree with this. I actually don’t think we are coalescing around fewer devices. Instead I see MANY more devices which will be launched and that’s a good thing.

The most common question developers ask is: How do I get this service on to phones? With many new entrants, the possibility of getting a service on a phone increases. At the moment, there are really only four device manufacturers(Samsung LG Nokia and Sony Ericsson) + Motorola (with its status in balance). If we see many more device vendors, that is a good thing. Indeed 3D holograms from Infosys and the award winning Gemalto’s smart card web server(pdf)
could be their own ‘devices’ i.e. if the device becomes cheap then we could model the device around a specific development(like SCWS)

AND WHAT ABOUT ANDROID/GOOGLE?
Contrary to media comparisons, I believe that Google is addressing a fundamentally different problem to most other people(including Nokia). It is addressing the problem of making Web services usable on mobile devices(mostly existing Google services like mail and maps).

This needs advertising support simply because there is no other revenue model that can work. Why? Because the information is available mostly for free on the Web(or we have services like email which are also free on the Web). It is not possible to charge a premium for this service just because it is ‘mobile’(A lesson which many in the mobile industry doggedly refuse to accept!). (You see the same problems with companies that try to monetise mobile widgets). Instead, the service becomes free and ad funded.

And Android has been designed from the ground up to achieve this goal(i.e. within every element of the stack) and has features like XMPP integrated into it XMPP (features which have no parallels in an integrated manner currently). And is modularised. This strategy will pay dividends depending on how many people are addicted to Google web apps(and I am!) and will want them on mobile devices – a trend I explored in a blog called Am I the only one who uses Gmail with Blackberry .. and what does it say for mobile apps ..

SHOW ME THE MONEY?
So, if the OS is free, the devices are free .. etc etc .. where is the money going to come from? The answer lies in understanding the behaviour of the PC/Web software industry. I come from a background of PeopleSoft(now Oracle corporation) prior to mobile – and Oracle continues to make lots of money – not from software but from services(more than half it’s revenue) and UBS analyst Heather Bellini calls Oracle a ‘profit machine’

I see the same trend on mobile devices. As devices and systems software becomes cheap(like on the PC) but ironically more complex, applications and services will drive most of the revenue. These could be advertising but also subscription services(including some form of tech support/ insurance etc)

DR IRVING WLADAWSKY-BERGER THE UNSUNG HERO OF THE OPEN SOURCE MOVEMENT
Let me conclude this article by mentioning the impact of Dr Irving Wladawsky-Berger - a great unsung hero in my view for Open source movement

Dr. Irving Wladawsky-Berger of IBM has done more than anyone else to adopt the ideas of open source to companies – analogous to what Linus Torvalds did for Linux in the Operating system domain. Although I have never had the pleasure of meeting Dr Berger .. he has an infrequent but insightful blog HERE which I recommend you follow . Today, as a result of that vision from some corporate pioneers like Irving Wladawsky-Berger – we see a unique and a vibrant ecosystem – not dominated by a company, or by governments.

Indeed, that’s the reason I have always said that the market will develop differently in Europe, North America and many other places in comparison to Japan and Korea and inspite of early advantages .. Europe and North America will be the leaders for Mobile applications that also span the Web.

Here is a section from an interview with Irving which shows a pragmatic vision to open source – and over the years it has given rise to a whole ecosystem as we see today in the mobility space.
>>>
TG: Sun has committed to releasing all of its code as open source. Do you think IBM will do the same?
IW-B: I don't think so, because I honestly don't think everybody wants to see all your code. Remember, the key to open source is not the ability to see the open software, it's the forming of a community around it that will participate in its development and its maintenance.
You cannot go in your closet and look for old code and throw it out there and tell people to form a community around it. They may say, Irving, that's legacy code that we have zero interest in working on. We continue to open source quite a bit of code, but we are fairly selective, and we work very closely with communities to decide whether to open source or not.
<<<

Open source and open standards will lead the way – and may it so remain! We are seeing the fulfillment of a trend which began about a decade ago .. and it is proving very disruptive in the mobile domain - as Android and the Symbian announcement continue to demonstrate

Also see
Crossing the Chasm with Android

Open source vs. Open Standards – complementing or competing?

Posted by ajit at 9:55 PM | Comments (11) | TrackBack

June 26, 2008

iPod fairy tales 2.0

Why are kids’ stories so outdated?

I have a five year old son who is VERY technology savvy (His second word was ‘Gagga’ – which turns out to be ‘Google’!!).

I was reading Jack and the beanstalk to him - and in it he encountered a harp .

What is a harp? He wanted to know?
I told him it is a musical instrument.
I tried to elaborate. I said – ‘Music plays from it’ .

He thought for a minute - and his face brightened as he asked Like the ipod?

Well .. Yes .. I said. Of course he is very familiar with the ipod, but has no clue what a Harp is.

After hunting for a harp for a long time .. he suggested that maybe we can find it on Google images? And there we found one!

The point illustrates a key trend .. If anything needs a 2.0 version, it is fairy tales!

The wording of Jack and the Beanstalk reads as follows!

Fee! Fie! Foe! Fum!??
I smell the blood of an Englishman.
Be he 'live, or be he dead,
I'll grind his bones to make my bread.

Just how do we explain this wording to a five year old? Who by the way happens to be an ‘Englishman’ at birth(unlike me who is a naturalised British citizen).

Give me fairy tales about the iPod any day!

Image source: http://blog.collectables-now.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/harp.jpg

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.mobi in the world of new changes from ICANN

My first impression as I read the ICANN announcement .. - what is the future of .mobi in this world?

With so many domain types - wont it be confusing? Will people bother to 'bid' for more?
Will we see new arrivals (for instance .mobileafrica to denote African mobile sites)?
Do we take it that ICANN sees a new business model here? This announcement is not as rosy as it sounds

From the BBC link above
>>>
It is not a view shared by everyone. Many businesses have pointed out that the new system could be very costly.

"The major issue with the potentially large number of new TLDs is going to be for brand owners who will want to protect their trademarks," said Mr Eggensperger.

"For a major pharmaceutical business, the cost of registering all of their trademarks when a new trademark is released runs into hundreds of thousands of pounds."

Others point out that some generic domain names - such as .news or .sport - could become subject to contention and a bidding war.

Icann has said that it was "aware of all of the concerns" and that it had "considered them very carefully".
<<<

Posted by ajit at 9:27 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

June 25, 2008

Infosys - Holographic mobile handsets

With the renewed interest in user interfaces after the launch of the iPhone, this is an interesting announcement from Infosys about the development of Holographic mobile handsets specifically the use of Fourier transforms to compute the third dimension.

As Indian companies become multinationals and grow beyond their traditional domains of expertise, we can expect to see more such developments from innovative Indian companies

Infosys press release here

As per cnet
Holographic mobile handsets capable of projecting, capturing, and sending 3D images have been developed by Indian tech giant Infosys.

By 2010, the devices will routinely beam 3D films, games, and virtual goods into our laps, according Infosys, which has patented the handset.

The portable machines will capture and send 3D snapshots of the surrounding world, helping accident investigators, teachers, and doctors work remotely by instantly relaying realistic depictions of car damage, injuries, medical scans, or educational aids.

The powerful onboard processor on the Infosys machine would build a series of 2D shots taken, for example, from a digital camera, into 3D holograms using algorithms called 'Fourier' transformations to calculate the extra third dimension.

The patent, granted by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, says this allows complex 3D holographic images to be squeezed through the narrow pipes of existing communications networks by sending only the unprocessed data to be translated into the 3D hologram at the other end.

Infosys' device will be able to both send and receive these 3D images, displaying them using a projector with a laser source and micro holographic optical elements lenses.

The global 3D screen market is forecast by the industry to grow to 8.1 million units by 2010.

"Holographic handsets have the capability of enriching the user experience with an actual 3D experience and higher-quality images," an Infosys representative said. "This gives users a more realistic experience in areas like gaming, medicine, movies etc."

She said the technology would enable 3D images to be displayed without losing resolution, something that is not possible using current 3D technology such as stereoscopic displays.

source: cnet

Posted by ajit at 6:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 24, 2008

Symbian on the way to being Open sourced ..

This is very interesting ..

Mores so because like Android (which was under an Apache license) this initiative is under the eclipse license . Both these licenses are good for commercial development in my view(i.e. changes you make need not be released back - thus providing commercial incenctive for developers to build their own applications). See Open source vs. Open Standards – complementing or competing? to put this in context and especially the reference to the Apache license

However, open source itself is not significant. what is needed(from Nokia) is to create the equivalant of an iPhone commercial ecosystem - which is the missing link at the moment. However, this is a good development for the ecosystem in general

Mobile leaders to unify the Symbian software platform and set the future of mobile free
June 24, 2008(source Nokia

Foundation to be established to provide royalty-free open platform and accelerate innovation

London, UK - Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Motorola and NTT DOCOMO announced today their intent to unite Symbian OS(TM), S60, UIQ and MOAP(S) to create one open mobile software platform. Together with AT&T, LG Electronics, Samsung Electronics, STMicroelectronics, Texas Instruments and Vodafone they plan to establish the Symbian Foundation to extend the appeal of this unified software platform. Membership of this non-profit Foundation will be open to all organizations. This initiative is supported by current shareholders and management of Symbian Limited, who have been actively involved in its development. Plans for the Foundation have already received wide support from other industry leaders.

To enable the Foundation, Nokia today announced plans to acquire the remaining shares of Symbian Limited that Nokia does not already own and then contribute the Symbian and S60 software to the Foundation. Sony Ericsson and Motorola today announced their intention to contribute technology from UIQ and DOCOMO has also indicated its willingness to contribute its MOAP(S) assets. From these contributions, the Foundation will provide a unified platform with common UI framework. A full platform will be available for all Foundation members under a royalty-free license, from the Foundation's first day of operations.

Contributions from Foundation members through open collaboration will be integrated to further enhance the platform. The Foundation will make selected components available as open source at launch. It will then work to establish the most complete mobile software offering available in open source. This will be made available over the next two years and is intended to be released under Eclipse Public License (EPL) 1.0.

The Foundation's platform will build on the leading open mobile software platform, with more than 200 million phones, across 235 models, already shipped by multiple vendors and tens of thousands of third-party applications already available for Symbian OS-based devices.

"Ten years ago, Symbian was established by far sighted players to offer an advanced open operating system and software skills to the whole mobile industry", said Nigel Clifford, CEO of Symbian. "Our vision is to become the most widely used software platform on the planet and indeed today Symbian OS leads its market by any measure. Today's announcement is a bold new step to achieve that vision by embracing a complete and proven platform, offered in an open way, designed to stimulate innovation which is at the heart of everything we do."

"Establishing the Foundation is one of the biggest contributions to an open community ever made," said Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, CEO of Nokia. "Nokia is a strong supporter of open platforms and technologies as they give the freedom to build, maintain and evolve applications and services across device segments and offer by far the largest ecosystem, enabling rapid innovation. Today's announcement is a major milestone in our devices software strategy."

"The complete, consistent platform that the Foundation plans to provide will allow manufacturers to focus on their unique differentiation at a device level" said Dick Komiyama, President of Sony Ericsson. "Sony Ericsson believes that the unified Symbian Foundation platform will greatly simplify the world for handset manufacturers, operators and developers, enabling greater innovation in services and applications to the benefit of consumers everywhere."

"Motorola has long been a leader and advocate of open software for mobile platforms. We're excited to be joining Nokia, Sony Ericsson, NTT DOCOMO and others in leading this open source effort to form the new Symbian Foundation and unite the Symbian ecosystem," said Alain Mutricy, Senior Vice President, Platforms & Technology Office, Motorola Mobile Devices. "Also, Motorola, together with Sony Ericsson, will be contributing UIQ technology to the Foundation and will work with UIQ as they are refocusing as an important supplier in the new Symbian ecosystem. This will be a great addition, as the Foundation will be able to leverage UIQ's unique experience, which includes expertise in touch technology."

"DOCOMO welcomes this development and we look forward to moving our Symbian based devices and service onto the Foundation platform. We are also willing to contribute our MOAP(S) assets to the Foundation. This is a very positive step in further increasing the adoption of the Symbian software and creating an even more open, consistent and complete platform. The Foundation software will enable us to enjoy the benefits of a global platform in bringing new, leading-edge services to the Japanese market. It will increase efficiency and help us provide our wide customer base with the most advanced mobile experiences." said Toshio Miki, Associate Senior Vice President, Managing Director of Communication Device Development Department of NTT DOCOMO.

"Mobile phones have turned into sophisticated multimedia computers and smart phones continue to grow in popularity," said Kris Rinne, Senior Vice President of Architecture and Planning at AT&T. "The Symbian Foundation will reduce fragmentation in the industry and holds the promise of incorporating leading technology and the most mature software into a unified platform for the entire industry. This will create an environment that will encourage and enable developers to build compelling applications that will positively affect our customers' lives and support AT&T in offering its differentiated services to consumers."

"Joining the Symbian Foundation is an ideal opportunity for LG to broaden our commitment to providing our customers with the best possible mobile experience" said Dr. Skott Ahn, President and CEO of LG Electronics Mobile Communications Company. "We believe that open mobile platforms will contribute to advance the mobile industry. At LG we will play a leading role in creating a better mobile environment, working with the Symbian Foundation to provide our customers with smart new features based on this open platform."

"Samsung Electronics is committed to Symbian as one of the future platforms for our mobile devices and believes that establishing the Foundation is a visionary move in positioning the platform as a proven open platform for future development. We are delighted to be playing a significant role in that future by joining the Foundation board. We have already used Symbian and S60 software successfully to deliver appealing devices and see these steps making the platform even more attractive for bringing the latest technologies and services to the market" said Dr. Do Hun Kwon, VP & Managing Director, Samsung Electronics Research Institute.

"ST sees strong consumer demand, across all segments, for a richer multimedia experience," said Monica de Virgiliis, General Manager of the Wireless Multimedia Division, STMicroelectronics. "This new foundation synchronizes and harmonizes the mainstream software approach to address this need and makes the software widely available. We anticipate this will fuel the growth of multimedia-capable devices and we are excited about being able to leverage our long-standing leadership in consumer digital multimedia to satisfy more and more consumers."

"TI has long supported open platforms, and we are excited about the formation of the Symbian Foundation. We believe the new structure will remove barriers to innovation in the mobile industry by providing a common platform on which exciting next-generation applications and services can be built," said Greg Delagi, senior vice president of TI's Wireless Business Unit. "Manufacturers can get a head-start on development with TI's proven OMAP-based Symbian S60 software development platform. Combined with the Foundation's open collaboration model, this will allow more developers to harness the performance and multimedia capabilities of the OMAP family to accelerate improvements in the mobile user experience."

"Vodafone believes this is a significant step in driving mobile innovation for the Internet as well as creating a richer mobile experience for our customers" said Jens Schulte-Bockum, Vodafone's Global Director of Terminals. "We have been challenging the industry to reduce complexity and focus on fewer operating systems. This step will help to drive even faster innovation, as well as enable operators to accelerate time-to-market for compelling and varied new services."

Foundation members share the vision that the Foundation will unify the software platform, supercharge innovation and accelerate the availability of new services and compelling experiences for consumers and business users around the world. The combined platform is already one of the most advanced and widely used mobile platforms, making it highly attractive for all ecosystem partners, including developers, mobile operators, content and service providers and device manufacturers.

The Foundation is expected to start operating during the first half of 2009, subject to the closing of the acquisition of Symbian Ltd by Nokia.

Posted by ajit at 8:08 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 22, 2008

Venue in San Francisco in Sep for one day

Hello
I am looking for a venue in San Francisco in Sep for one day for a mobile related event for about 100 people. Any suggestions - please contact me at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com kind rgds Ajit

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Dont buy print edition of Forbes Top 100 celebreties - online is much better ..

I have been a fan of Forbes magazine and especially of Forbes issues which include lists (for instance Richest people, Best corporations to work for etc). Hence, I was disappointed with the latest issue from Forbes – The Forbes celebrity 100. The problem is – there is so little content. Just a list and three or four people covered in that list. A large portion of that issue is extensive advertorials (one about Greece, one about Environmental protection agencies and one about IPTV). I certainly did not pay money hoping to read these advertisements and so little content. This is very poor coming from Forbes and I don’t recommend that you buy this issue
In contrast the online coverage is a LOT better and I think that’s all you need i.e. don’t bother with the print edition.

I have never seen such contrast in content between online and print – with print being so content poor. Maybe this is a broader trend of the demise in print media.

Posted by ajit at 10:19 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

June 21, 2008

Android apps winners - a good list ..

Lots to learn here ... i.e. who are the winners and why .. Android apps winners

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Google Gears APIs and videos ..

some great developments here .. Google Gears APIS and videos

Posted by ajit at 11:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Open systems – giving the client for free – pros and cons ..

One of the key reasons I advocate open systems is the emphasis on interoperability and interconnectivity. One option to achieve this is to give the client for free similar to Adobe Acrobat and more recently to Flash Lite on mobile devices. Qs is - what are the pros and cons of this approach?

Posted by ajit at 11:53 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

t-mobile slashes data roaming rates - others to follow? - Three cheers for Ms Reding ..

t-mobile slashes data roaming rates - others to follow? - Three cheers for Ms Reding ..

Specifcally .. anyone from Vodafone reading this? I am seriously looking to switch. I called Voda and they had no clue .. which is sad ..

Posted by ajit at 10:29 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 18, 2008

The Commoditization of GPS & the Golden Age of Location-based Services

Great post from Om Malik. The Commoditization of GPS & the Golden Age of Location-based Services I blogged about this before as well LBS is definately back

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June 17, 2008

Having a great time at Supernova ..

I am having a great time at Supernova. It’s great to meet so many leading edge thinkers in one place. The conference has a nice feel to it and it is oriented to conversations - Yesterday, it was nice to meet Tantek Celik, Esther Dyson, Mike Arrington and of course Kevin Werbach himself in person. And I really liked Jason Devitt’s presentation. Although I had known Skydeck before - it was nice to get an idea of the company in person from Jason (Skydeck is building an online service that helps you to manage your cell phone and your cell phone bill.)

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June 15, 2008

Looking for a speaker who works with Open Social

I am looking for someone who understands OpenSocial as a speaker at a conference in San Francisco. If you are interested or can recommend someone – please contact me at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com

Posted by ajit at 7:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Lovely song from Brazil

I find it amazing how YouTube has the potential to share media/songs across cultures and enrich our lives. My friend and Brazilian journalist Priscila Grison sent me this lovely song from Brazil. It has a beautiful therapeutic tone to it. It’s like a chant/meditation – and although I don’t understand a word of it – it’s wonderful.

The song is called Waters of March" (Portuguese: "Águas de Março") and its Brazil's most popular song. The singer is Elis Regina

Hope you enjoy it as well

Posted by ajit at 7:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Interview with Justin Oberman - Opportunities and redundancies in the converged world of telecoms and mobility ..

Justin Oberman is a well known blogger in the mobile/wireless space through his blog mopocket and also a good friend.

Justin is now directing the Mobile/Telecom desk for Precision Research Group, a boutique executive search firm that has been finding the "unfindable" for talent hungry companies since 1996. Justin's expertise lies at the intersection where mobile and telecom connect with entertainment/media, finance, marketing and advertising. With this background,Justin offers a refreshingly therapeutic approach to the sector's workforce needs.

I had the chance to speak with him during my travels and here are some clips from our conversation:

My overall comments: I have tried my best to capture our conversation in an interview format – but the overall issue I was discussing is as follows: When I see so many traditional telecoms people in the infrastructure side – I wonder how(and if!) they will make the transition from the world of Telecoms as it stands today to the emerging world of mobility – driven more by converged companies like Apple and Google. I believe many Telecoms personnel will not be able to make that transition sadly. We saw many redundancies on the infrastructure side in Telcoms in the eighties and early nineties. I see the same happening again. There are two caveats to this – firstly some people from Telecoms will be able to make the transition – and we are already seeing some of this happening – but they are few and far between. Secondly, Telecoms will need new blood to enhance the existing genepool and will need to attract people who currently are not in 'telecoms' but are needed there. These people will have cross functional experience especially in light of the new world which we are increasingly finding ourselves in Telecoms and mobility.

Me: What are the best ways you think companies in the New Media and Wireless space can optimize their investment in human capital.
Justin: Well, Hiring talent in the mobile/telecom space is a tricky endeavour. Sure, there are various sources you can use to identify potential candidates - ranging from employee referrals and in-house candidates, to recruiting ads and search firms. Throw in online job postings, social networks and information aggregators, and the result is usually an avalanche of names.

Me: Plus add to that the fragmented nature of the industry.
Justin: Exactly! You see, the wireless industry is still developing and feeds off a mishmash of other disciplines (i.e. entertainment, marketing, finance) that give it functionality and potential. And what typically breaks down in the hiring process is that companies look for skills that are so hard to define that they almost don't exist.

Me: So what should companies in the new media and wireless industries be looking for?
Justin: What is needed in our industry are professionals who have experiences in diverse disciplines and the potential to leverage what they know and transition that into something new.

Me: So, what are companies doing wrong now?
Justin: Well, you see, taking the conventional, linear approach to recruiting, by attempting
to match job requirements and skills, will yield underwhelming results. Rather, hiring managers must re-orient their thinking and approach the evaluation talent from a different angle. Instead of focusing on skills, hiring managers should focus on personal
attributes.

Me: Why?
Justin: Because attributes more accurately reflect how people do their work and what drives them to achieve results.

Me: Can you give me an example?
Justin: Sure, for example, an attribute that is important for many roles in the wireless industry is courage. What is courage? It is an eagerness to participate. In other words, someone who is brave enough to step into the outer boundaries of the fragmented, new media industry.
Me: How can a company or the person doing the hiring determine if a person was the courage to work in the new media or wireless space?
Justin: That a very good question and it's something that we work with hiring managers to help them figure out. So a few questions to ask candidates to determine their level of courage are

1. How have you reached beyond your comfort zone?
2. What are some situations in which you had to explore the unknown?
3. When have you demonstrated a fearless commitment to achieve
an objective?
4. Have you risked failure in the quest for novel solutions?

By penetrating into a candidate's inner professional psyche, you can paint a picture in your mind about his/her ability to not only deliver value to your enterprise, but also fit into your organizational culture.

If you want to discuss more, Justin can be contacted at 212-230-1991 or email joberman@prgconnect.com

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The future of the book/publishing: A social network based on a book ?

INTRODUCTION

This post covers two topics:

a) For the budding author who wants to write a book in the business or technology areas – this post provides an understanding of the publishing industry – both where it is currently at and (more importantly) where it is going to

and

b) A vision of my own business (futuretext) which is a niche publishing company. Specifically our vision is based on the idea of creating a creating a social network based on a book as I explain below

So, you want to write a business/technology book – Where do you start? Should you start at all?

In writing about the publishing industry, I have a unique perspective - being a published author (through Mobile Streams ) and then going on to set up a publishing company futuretext . We have published books from authors like Tomi Ahonen, Alan Moore, Rakesh Radhakrishanan (Sun Microsystems), Mark Curtis and many more to come.

Some of our authors have appeared in leading publications – for instance Tomi Ahonen on CNN , Mark Curtis(in the Financial Times) etc.

Unlike the more traditional publishers who don’t understand new media like blogs (Some actually prohibit their authors from blogging ‘too much’ since it may hit sales!) – we were born in the era of the blog and we actively encourage our authors to blog. When we started futuretext, I toyed with the idea of starting a magazine to promote our books. However, after reading the seminal article in Business week about how blogging will change your business in May 2005, I realised blogging was the way to go. I went on to create one of the most successful blogs in the mobile space(OpenGardens blog ) (The OpenGardens blog was also started on 31 May 2005 inspired by this article ). For a note on why blogging works for our business (publishing) see SEO: How to use blogs for Search engine optimization and to improve your Google ranking/Alexa rating

So, I hope – my views and insights cover both new and old media and add value to you. In turn, your feedback will help me to formulate the future direction of my company

The questions which I get asked most often are - 'I want to write a business/Technical book. Should I do it? How long does a typical book take to write? How much money will I make? Do you think my book will be covered by the mainstream press? Etc

There are lots of articles, books etc about 'How to write a book' - but mostly they are from the perspective of the existing publishing industry, they ignore new media like blogs and they often cover fiction writing. So, this article focuses only on business and technology books especially taking into account the emergence of new media like blogging.

THE STRUCTURE OF THE PUBLISHING INDUSTRY
Here is a simplified structure of the book publishing industry as applicable to our discussion i.e. writing technical/business books.

We can classify books into the following categories

a) Mass market fiction – think Harry Potter!

b) Business books – Many entrants - Very few winners. Historically the industry promotes the same books over and over again – even though there are many newer books on similar topics. If you doubt this, next time you are at an airport lounge – see how many ‘old’ books dominate the business sector. Two classics I see are Barbarians at the Gate and Built to Last. Both are excellent. But ‘Barbarians’ I read when I was in school(not typical reading for your average school kids – but my dad always had many books at home and this was one of them!). It is the story of the hostile takeover of RJR Nabisco by K Kohlberg Kravis in the 1980s. Point is - its chief protagonist Henry Kravis has since gone on to do many more things – yet this story of greed in the 1980s dominates the bookstores in 2000s – for reasons to do more with risk aversion from the publishing industry. Traditional publishers like Harper Collins who published Jack Welch
and also academic/business publishers like Harvard business school press who publish Hamel and Prahalad are best known in this space

c) Traditional technology books - Large business and technology publishers are in this space – Wiley, Blackwells etc.

d) Academic books – Written by academia (often for academia). Expensive and with a relatively small print base

e) Programming books – ‘How to’ books for programmers. Companies like O Reilly, Apress and others dominate this space

f) Niche publishers – a relatively new phenomenon – publishers focussed narrowly on a specific vertical – for example futuretext in mobility and convergence

g) Publish on demand – Self publishing – strictly not a publisher for reasons outlined below

THE IMPACT OF DIGITIZATION ON THE PUBLISHING INDUSTRY
Before we begin ..

Let me tell you a little secret – I believe that the book publishing industry as it stands today, will be unviable in the near future – if it is not so already. It will be a victim of the relentless digitization we are witnessing around us and which has already affected movies, music, newspapers, magazines and other non digital forms of media.

Books are no different – and there is no reason why books will be an exception.

The most important effects of digitization on the publishing industry are

1) A reduced barrier to entry for publishing through digital printing (print on demand ). Print on demand is a process. It conjures up an image of literally printing one book at a time. However, there is another way to look at print on demand. It enables us to print a smaller batch size. The option to digital printing is litho/offset printing – with a minimum batch size of 1000 copies and often a lot more. Thus, digital printing enables many smaller publishers to get started(and this was the route we took to get started as well).

2) The emergence of niche publishers specialising in specific topics for the reasons listed above (Digital printing)

3) The ability to bypass the print media altogether through blogs

4) The rise of Amazon – which is a ‘level playing field’ when it came to publishers (i.e. it treated all books equally irrespective of whether they came from a small publisher or a big publisher). Note that recently Amazon has started to distinguish between its own printing company booksurge vs. the rest. But that’s a different story i.e. Amazon still treats all publishers as the same)

5) Print on demand – the ability to print one book at a time leading to self publishing

6) A voice for the Long tail – the emergence of long tail books i.e. books which would normally not be printed but are now possible since barriers to entry have been reduced

7) Many more avenues to gain exposure – for instance the blogosphere. Contrast with the few large newspapers, magazines prior to the rise of blogosphere.

PROBLEMS WITH THE STATUS QUO FOR AUTHORS, PUBLISHERS AND THE CUSTOMERS
There are many problems with the existing market structure for authors, publishers, distributors and customers. Here is how I see them

a) Publishers have become risk averse – focussing on the same few authors and titles which they think are ‘safe’. I mentioned Barbarians before. In an ironic twist , the book The Long Tail has also become a permanent fixture of many an airport lounge(I took this picture at Heathrow a couple of months ago)

b) The rate of change of information is far greater than the print media can manage i.e. books take too long to produce and by that time the topic has moved on

c) The most knowledgeable people have no time to actually write a book

d) It is difficult to get exposure in media – and I say this inspite of having authors on CNN and the FT. If I am honest, there was an element of luck and timing with it. In addition, big media is itself declining – for example the decline in newspaper readership.

e) Books are too expensive in emerging markets like India, China and Brazil. The biggest growth however will come from these markets.

f) Book distributors continue to take as high as 55 percentage of the price of the book. This means many of the more interesting and latest books will never make it to bookstores. I don’t see bookstores changing their business models. Instead I see many large bookstores and distributors dying out in the near future and the industry will face considerable consolidation.

g) There is little revenue for the author in terms of royalties. This fact coupled with long timeframes to write the book and little exposure – make the whole process unviable for authors

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
So, what are the solutions
a) What about self publishing? This seems most obvious – but has a critical flaw – since no one has invested in / validated your book – it immediately has less value in the minds of the reader. In contrast for instance, even with a niche publisher like futuretext, the fact that you are in the company of other authors like Tomi, Rakesh and Mark – is an intellectual validation of your work. By the way, while we are on this topic, don’t ever sign up to someone who expects the author to pay the publisher! That’s vanity publishing!. The publisher must always take the commercial risk for the book.

b) Why not create your own blog? This is a possibility – and if you can do it – I encourage you to do so. It is however not easy to get exposure for blogs and most bloggers will admit that it’s really hard work.

c) The industry is evolving and the best developments are from the digital / new media – than from traditional publishing. Google with Google book search , O Reilly with Safari books and various developments from Amazon are the most promising

VISION
So, what do I think will work?

Obviously, the book publishing industry still works (except in my view the self publishing option for the reasons listed above). Hence, if you get a publishing contract with a reputable publisher and you can write that book within a timeframe – it is well worth considering

However, I believe increasingly the following trends are driving book publishing to change the nature of the book itself:

a) It will be increasingly not be possible to make money on books for authors

b) There is a trend towards the ‘reference’ book i.e. if the book is simple enough – most of the content can be obtained online. People will pay to buy a book which is complex and one they need to refer back repeatedly

c) Ironically, at the same time, there is an opposite trend –towards smaller, cheaper books. The wired article on Snack content provides a rationale towards consumption of content (including books) in bite sized chunks

d) Emerging markets are the key drivers but they will warrant a much lower cost of the book(they already do)

e) Increasingly, fewer books will be covered by mainstream media for the reasons listed above
f) I find that authors will increasingly struggle to write books especially in the light of the fact that they get little exposure in the first place and little royalties.

So, I believe the creation of an online social network based on a book may be an option

Here are some more thoughts on this
a) There is an increasing tendency to pay online. Consider Wall street journal, Financial times and the Guardian all have paid models

b) We need differential online prices for emerging economies

c) We need the interactivity i.e. people pay for the community.

d) The book becomes a living document –there by making it easier to write since writing becomes an ongoing process

e) I believe that translations will play an important part in this process

f) I see a price point of $9.99 / year for emerging markets like Brazil, India, China etc and $19.99/year for UK/USA etc.

I seek your feedback on this especially the price points and the benefits.

You should also read the work from The future of the book project
Many thanks to Justin Oberman for pointing out the link to me.

Posted by ajit at 3:15 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

June 13, 2008

Digital youth

I like this presentation from MTV and it reflects a view I put forward at the Mobile World Congress that Mobile Youth is a myth because it does not reflect the youth’s social graph(as does facebook, myspace etc).

This MTV presentation talks of the concept of Digital youth with greater emphasis on social networking, web 2.0, Myspace, Facebook etc – with only a brief mention of ‘mobile’.

I agree with this idea of Digital Youth.

It is reflective of a more holistic interaction than pigeonholing an entire demographic(youth) to a technology type(mobile)

Watch this space - we may be doing some interesting work in this space

Posted by ajit at 8:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

LBS is definately back ..

LBS is derfinately back and will be big

KEY difference is this time it is not driven by operators

See this post from Tom Hume for the resons why.

As an industry, we have had many a false dawn with respect to LBS - this time we have a good chance of success

Posted by ajit at 8:18 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Why should mobile social networks not be built in Java(or other downloadable platforms)?

Yesterday at the Mobile Web summit, it was great to hear Mark Curtis and his views on how they built up Flirtomatic. Mark is a good friend and also one of my authors. Mark mentioned something subtle .. Which I think many people(including me) had missed for some time ..

He said .. They started with Java for their Mobile social network, then just before their big launch they abandoned Java .. A costly decision but one he has never regretted it.

Instead they exclusively adopted the Mobile Web(XHTML and above) and have stuck with it ever since with great commercial success

Why should mobile social networks not be built in Java(or other downloadable platforms)?

They key to flirtomatic’s success is its extremely fast feature turnaround, adaptation to customer needs, introduction of new features, responses to customer needs etc.

For example –he mentioned ‘roses with glitter’ which they introduced immediately since people seemed to like them, A ‘ring’ for February 29(the only day on which women can propose to men it seems) etc. Many of these features arose from customer feedback and were implemented immediately

And why not implement in Java?

Because – changes to the service are not propagated immediately. It is a mess – and the user pays for the downloads(airtime) – apart from the time needed to test the service in the first place on a wide variety of handsets

With the Mobile Web, this is not a problem. They can change the service every hour and the changes are reflected immediately with no cost(and pain) to the users.

This is not a fluke ..

ALL the big social networks are based on the Mobile Web .. And none on Java .. which is counterintuitive since developers may want to design cool, sexy features and a great user interface - but they dont make business sense in light of the above

The big players are peperonity , mig33 , itsmy , flirtomatic, mocospace are all above (or in the ballpark) of million plus profiles.

Java has never been to get to such numbers and with good reason as we see from Flirtomatic's experience as above

Posted by ajit at 7:28 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack

June 12, 2008

Survey results: Most popular operator - Nokia!

I heard this today at the Mobile Web Summit(name withheld on request). A company had a survey asking people to rate their most popular Operator - and 'Nokia' was the winner i.e. the most popular response was 'Nokia' :)

What does this tell us? See my blog as below. Devices will always have the stronger brand - whether the Operators like it or not!

The Chicken and the Egg: The device and the network – which came first

Posted by ajit at 4:03 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

June 10, 2008

Implementing Mobile Web 2.0 – The Eleven architectures of Mobile Web 2.0

This article explores the implementation of Mobile Web 2.0. It is based on my keynote talk at the Mobile Web 2.0 summit this week. Starting from first principles, I discuss the practicalities of Mobile Web 2.0 and how it can be implemented at various points within the Mobile stack

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF MOBILE WEB 2.0
Why should you be concerned about Mobile Web 2.0?

Let us consider three key developments ..

1) When asked about the Web’s biggest growth areas - Eric Schmidt said the answer was Mobile Mobile Mobile.

2) Apple iPhone shares 70% of its revenue with developers – a development that flies in the face of the many excuses that so many Operators have been putting forward for so many years.

3) Nokia chairman Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo says that Nokia is going to be an Internet company

All these factors point to a critical trend

The Internet companies are finally driving the mobile agenda (and the savvy Mobile Companies like Nokia are now embracing the Internet and dominating it). These companies are looking at the Web and the Mobile Web together and see a seamless vision of the Internet spanning both the fixed and the wireless domains

It is no longer possible to ignore the impact of Web/Internet on mobile applications. This means applications that span the Web and the Mobile Web are becoming increasingly important. Traditional mobile applications like Ringtones are becoming saturated. The younger demographic is increasingly also looking at Web based social networking like MySpace and not just the mobile devices.

(Note: Strictly the Internet denotes any device connected to an IP network. The Mobile Internet denotes connecting to the Internet via a mobile device. The Web denotes an application level framework based on HTTP and HTML. And the mobile web denotes the usage of the Web on mobile devices. We use these terms here interchangeably depending on the context)

MOBILE WEB 2.0 – CANNOT IGNORE WEB 2.0
So, what is Mobile Web 2.0?

We cannot discuss Mobile Web 2.0 in vacuum. In discussing Mobile Web 2.0, let us not forget the intellectual debt owed to Tim O Reilly in defining Web 2.0.

Whichever way you look at it, Web 2.0 (as postulated by Tim O Reilly) has the following characteristics

a) The use of the Web as a backbone

b) Harnessing collective intelligence and

c) Creating a database/body of data that becomes richer as more users contribute to the system .

MOBILE WEB 2.0
While the Mobile Web has made increasing strides over the last few years, especially in the launch of Web Widgets , offline browsing and the availability of the full web browser on the Mobile Web(i.e. JavaScript, CSS etc), – we still have a way to go in the universal and ubiquitous availability of the mobile web on to mobile devices.

Hence, if we extend the above paradigm of Web 2.0 to Mobile devices (i.e. Mobile Web 20) – there are two implications :

a) The Web does not necessarily extend to mobile devices

b) Even though the Web does not extend to mobile devices, intelligence can still be captured from mobile devices since the Mobile device is always available at the point of inspiration and many elements can be captured uniquely through mobile devices(for instance Location)

This can be depicted as follows.

The iPod/iTunes service is a preliminary example of Mobile Web 2.0. The ipod uses the web as a back end and the PC as a local cache. In this sense, the service is ‘driven by the web and configured at the PC’ but it is not strictly a ‘Web’ application because it is not driven by web protocols end to end (iPod protocols are proprietary to Apple). However, it uses the Web as a backbone and this makes it a Mobile Web 2.0 service if we extend the definition of Web 2.0 to mobile devices.

THE DEEP BLUE SEA PROBLEM
The problem with the above diagram is: Once the content goes on the ‘deep blue sea’ of the Web (for instance on Flickr, YouTube etc) - the mobile industry lost its leverage i.e. unique advantage.

So, the fundamental question regarding the implementation of Mobile Web 2.0 is: How does the mobile industry adopt the ethos of the Web (openness, no walled gardens etc) and yet maintain some unique advantages? I.e. bridge the world of the Mobile and the Internet?

IMPLEMENTING MOBILE WEB 2.0
There are at least eleven ways if we extend the idea of Mobile Web 2.0 across the stack

1) The Operator implementation – This will be likely based on IMS/SDP.

2) The handset implantation – This approach is best indicated by Nokia’s Ovi strategy and the iPhone.

3) The Enterprise network strategy – Best epitomised by Cisco’s foray into Web 2.0 based on recent acquisitions such as Tribes and Five Across

4) The Web players coming to mobile .. Best example of this approach is Android.

5) Mobile Web 2.0 and Devices –Amazon Kindle

6) SCWS(Smart card web server) – A relatively new approach with the SIM cards being increasingly powerful and with the deployment of a web server on SIM cards with companies like Gemalto deploying SCWS services.

7) Identity and Security – Identity and Security can complement almost any service and a telecoms network has an advantage there.

8) Browser APIs/DOM extensions – OMTP, OpenAjax alliance and others are doing some great work here

9) Voice Call detail records to create social graphs

10) Make it quicker / easier – users will always pay extra for the small improvements which make their life easier even when other(more cumbersome) ways exist which may be cheaper. 11) And finally, there is the concept of Umbrella social networks Beyond Web 2.0

11) Umbrella social networks – i.e. a social network that spans the Web and the Mobile Web. Twitter being one such example http://opengardensblog.futuretext.com/archives/2007/10/umbrella_social.html

CONCLUSIONS
As developments like the Android start becoming mainstream and the iPhone continues to make a big impact on the Mobile ecosystem – the full impact of Mobile Web 2.0 is only now starting to be felt. As more services span the Web and the Mobile Web, we will see greater uptake of Mobile Web 2.0

These ideas are explored in the forthcoming book Implementing Mobile Web 2.0 by Ajit Jaokar. Please contact me at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com if you wish to know more.

Posted by ajit at 11:25 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack

No MMS on the 3G iPhone - good or bad?

There have been some questions about the lack of support for MMS on the new 3G iPhone ..

I think there is a simple explanation .. Apple is right to leave MMS out of the iPhone(and it reveals a much broader strategy as we see below)

I think the question is- What exactly do we need MMS for(from the user standpoint)

Three things are possible ..

a) person to web communication(photo album type of application)
b) person to person communication
c) A2P (Application to person i.e. web site to person) - this is like a daily news paper

In reality is P2P communication via MMS is dead (and MMS has only itself to blame)
More importantly no matter what Apple does - it cannot control the P2P experience since the operators, other device etc will not be interoperable

The other two(A2P) and Person to web - can be done by the iPhone much better without getting bogged down with MMS

The question reveals a key insight ..
Both Google and Apple are wisely not mucking around with the network layer .. I.e. leaving the network layer to telecoms and focussing on the Apps layer(playing to their strengths and to the revenue sources)

When Android was launched .. I had a post saying - No IMS stack for Android? Which is the same thing(conceptually)

So, it makes a lot more sense when you look at it from both tech and functional angles

The chickens have come home to roost for the telecoms industry ..

If they launch ventures like MMS and dont get the interoperability right and make them viable for the whole ecosystem (think OpenGardens) .. these initiatives(and the cost) become dead in about three years when players like Apple and Google will simply bypass them. We saw that with LBS. Now we see that with MMS.

The future belongs to the Web players dominating the Mobile space - which is nice :)

Posted by ajit at 7:57 AM | Comments (46) | TrackBack

June 9, 2008

iPhone version of Flirtomatic launched ..

With uncanny timing coinciding with the launch of the 3G iPhone , Flirtomatic launches the iPhone version of their service for the iPhone and the iTouch.

The Alpha version is available worldwide and has a new enriched mobile interface which has been completely built for the iPhone and iTouch user. With access to over 800k users currently, the feature set includes registration, login, chat, search, rating and the ability to send and receive gifts. Flirtomatic claims to be the only service to have optimised all of these features for the iPhone in the UK currently. Further functionality including location search will be available shortly.

Launched in 2006, Flirtomatic is a real time, high capacity, multimedia, messaging platform that currently has over 800,000 registered users and nearly 400,000 mobile users, making it UK's leading flirting service on the mobile and web.

Targeted at young adults (75% of users are 18 – 30 years old), Flirtomatic operates a free and uninterrupted service across the web and mobile, that enables users to flirt, meet new people and have fun online. Users have the ability to discover members on the basis of their preferences, interests, location and other information stored in their multimedia user profile. In May, Flirtomatic users were sending 1m messages a day, generating 21m web page views and 115m WAP page views.

With this announcement, flirtomatic extends their reach to the iPhone, iTouch and the 3G iPhone.

Mark Curtis, CEO of Flirtomatic believes that the i-phone layout actually works on an N95 and some other high end handsets. So, the feedback on the iPhone design will go towards making designs on other high end phones easier.

Posted by ajit at 8:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 2, 2008

Going medieval - Time warner and metered bandwidth - great techcrunch post ...

I am with Mike Arrington here : Going Medieval: Time-Warner Begins Metered Bandwidth Testing

Cable companies have regional monopolies and are able to extract excess profits from these monopolies. Innovation and the health of the ecosystem is dependent on a competitive marketplace. If one part of the market falls behind (and we’re already behind in broadband penetration and average data speeds), it becomes very difficult for the ecosystem to remain competitive.

I’m almost never in favor of government intervention of markets, but monopolies are an exception. We need to encourage data usage by consumers, not the opposite. The cable companies are standing in the way of economic growth and innovation. We can’t afford a decade or more of screwing around before trying to fix this. Let’s start now.

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June 1, 2008

Etisalat welcome roaming message arrives in Hong Kong ..

I am I Hong Kong giving the keynote of the Asia Pacific Web technology conference and conducting a two day workshop on the implementation of Mobile Web 2.0. I transited via Dubai. I was in Dubai for around 3 hrs. As a Vodafone UK customer, I was roaming in Dubai. However, imagine my surprise when I got the following message from Etisalat (Dubai Operator) in Hong Kong(long after I left Dubai)!

Dear Guest, Welcome to the UAE. Enjoy the best network coverage and other unmatched services only with Etisalat. Please use <+> or <00> before the country code for int'l call. For directory service call 181, for availability of GPRS, MMS, 3G roaming services call Etisalat Travelers' Help Line 8002300 & for inquiries on tourism, entertainment, shopping, etc call 7000-1-7000 (Roaming rates apply). Have a pleasant stay in the UAE.

The point being – I am almost 100% sure that I am paying for this message – which has no use whatsoever since I got it in Hong Kong(i.e. after I left Dubai)

How many more such instances when we may be perhaps be spending money due to the provider’s fault and never recovering it since it’s a small amount? But that small amount is a source of profit for the provider?

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May 25, 2008

Crossing the chasm with Android: Can we view disruptive initiatives like Android in the context of the existing value chain?

Note: This is a long post – but it needs to be since I am trying to set the context for the discussion. Hopefully you will like it.

The headings are

a) Synopsis
b) Background
c) What is inside a mobile phone?
d) Comparisons to the early PC value chain
e) Existing strategies of handset vendors
f) Android
g) Crossing the chasm
h) Conclusions

SYNOPSIS
Recently, two developments have focused the spotlight on Android. Firstly, Verizon’s adoption of LIMO foundation Linux in preference to Android and secondly a report says that Linux will capture 20 percent of the high end mobile market by 2013 (mainly due to Android).

Both these developments view Android in context of the current ecosystem.

Techcrunch does a good comparison within the existing framework and that’s good

However, disruptive services like Android (and the iPhone) cannot be viewed only in context of the existing framework. They are game changers and can best be analysed in context of the crossing the chasm viewpoint from Geoffrey Moore.

Here is a synopsis:

Just like in the PC industry, both hardware and software components of mobile devices are being standardized. The device (both hardware and software) becomes malleable i.e. conceptually a kind of ‘putty’/ clay. Once that happens (and as we see below – it is already happening), the value chain changes completely. Android is likely to contribute significantly to this trend – and consequently the primary beneficiaries of Android will not the existing players but a new set of as yet undefined customers OR players in the existing value chain – for example SIM card vendors - who may avail opportunities to develop new capabilities and acquire new customers aka crossing the chasm

BACKGROUND
When the iPhone was launched, I posted a long article which was called The iPhone is extraordinary not because of its UI but because it’s the tail wagging the dog .

In a nutshell, the success (or otherwise) of the iPhone has to be viewed in terms of whether it can change the existing industry value chain.

To the surprise of most people, including me, the iPhone HAS indeed succeeded in changing the existing industry value chain by providing a product/service that people want. While the long term prospects for the iPhone are unclear, the fact remains that the iPhone has succeeded in changing sacrosanct industry practices (for instance in changing the billing relationship )

So .. what about Android?

Is Android just a Linux consortium?
Linux consortia have been around a plenty and prominent ones include LIMO, LIPS and others. In fact, many companies, will hedge their bets by joining as many such consortia as possible mainly for defensive and strategic reasons. So, if Android is viewed as ‘yet another Linux consortium’ – it is not a big deal in itself.

Is Android about free/cost savings?
Again .. thats only part of the story ..
Historically, the deployment of Linux on the Mobile device has been motivated by the need to save cost but Android is more than cost savings.

However, speaking of cost savings ..

Linux on mobile devices is an expensive proposition when viewed on a ‘like for like’ basis with operating systems like Symbian. The value proposition of Linux on Mobile devices is not based on reducing the cost of the Operating system per se – but rather in reducing the cost of the whole BOM (Bill of materials) for a mobile device including its IPR costs. This means the ability for OEMs/ device manufacturers to ‘mix and match’ software elements of the Operating system with the goal of reducing the combined cost of software and hardware is a greater driving factor for Linux on Mobile devices than the cost of Linux itself. (Note: We will use the term OEM – Original equipment manufacturers - to refer to device manufacturers like Nokia, Sony Ericsson etc) .

And Android of course, is more than Linux on mobile devices.

Android has some elements of cost reduction (in that the stack is provided for OEMs to take up and productise into new mobile devices). But it is more about new services (wherein lies the differentiation as we will see below).

Currently, applications and services are not differentiators for mobile devices (which is a far cry from what industry consultants will want us to believe! ). Inspite of all the industry efforts, the only two common elements across most handsets worldwide are: voice and SMS. Most people still buy devices on looks - as Nokia found out much to their surprise when they got caught in the clamshell vs. candybar wars

Consequently, despite all the talk – prior to the iPhone – the Mobile Web and other services were not differentiating factors for the public.

We show below how this status quo is changing and is creating opportunities for new players (not just Android). We explore the following areas with this background

a) Changes in the device value chain leading to opportunities for new players

b) The importance of services and applications in future

c) Long tail applications and developer support

d) Personalization and customization of handsets beyond ringtones and other cosmetics

e) Crossing the chasm – new entrants may try to go for a segment not currently served by the industry players.

WHAT IS INSIDE A MOBILE PHONE?
Daft as this question sounds, we need to first understand what is a phone/mobile device.

The Mobile Handset Industry in Transition by Jamie L. Anderson & Martin E. Jonsson has a very good explanation and I have used it in this section.

Essentially, a phone comprises of three components (Integrated circuits).

The Radio Frequency Circuit (RF): sends and receives voice or data signals to the mobile phone.

The Mixed Signal Circuit: converts the signals from digital to analog and vice versa

The Baseband Circuit (BB): The BB is the phone processor where both the application software and the communication software is managed.

Unlike the application software, the communication software needs to operate in real time. In entry level phones, the Real Time Critical Operating System (RTOS), manages both the functions. In smartphones, there are two operating systems – one for the communications and the other for the applications. Microsoft and Symbian are examples of application operating. Android addresses the smartphone market.

COMPARISONS TO THE EARLY PC VALUE CHAIN
In hardware terms, the handset industry today can be compared to PC industry in the 1980. At that time, the PC manufacturers were vertically integrated. As the industry evolved, the vertical integration model was broken.

For instance, if we compare the handset industry to the early PC industry

a) Hardware innovations in themselves do not provide differentiation. Hardware quickly becomes commoditised.

b) Barriers to entry are reduced. The software and the hardware each become increasingly modularized. This leads to new entrants who can enter the marketplace – just like in the PC industry with lower barriers to entry.

c) Systems integration becomes a core competency and supply chain efficiency will decide the winners and the losers

d) As variable costs rather than fixed costs become more relevant, economies of scale may not be the dominant factor i.e. it may be possible for new players to enter the market who can be profitable even if they sell a smaller number of handsets.

e) ‘Softer’ components like brand, customer service, customization, applications and services are likely to be a more important source of differentiation as hardware differentiators are harmonized.

f) First mover advantage is likely to be short lived in this world. If one vendor introduces an X Megapixel camera, others will follow suit. This is again reminiscent of the PC industry with almost every manufacturer talking about faster processing speed, greater memory etc. customers will quickly learn this.

To some extent, we are already seeing the first manifestations of this trend. For instance:

a) OEMs are tending to outsource components of the phone to specialized companies called ODMs (Original design manufacturers).

b) For phones, the user interface component and the operating system components are decoupling (for example UIQ and S60 with Symbian). The implication here being – the core OS is bog standard. Differentiation comes from within the user interface which needs to be separate from the OS

c) Both software and hardware is becoming modularized. This explains the rise of Linux in the first place as we discussed above since its modularized architecture lends itself to the ‘mix and match’ in comparison to the more monolithic operating systems. It also explains why device manufacturers like Nokia are working with Linux but are not a member of any Linux consortia i.e. they see the value of Linux in itself

d) Since IPR is a variable cost, the significance of IPR is also relevant in the Linux context and especially the Android context Open source vs. Open Standards – complementing or competing?

EXISTING STRATEGIES OF HANDSET VENDORS
The strategies of existing handset manufacturers are dictated by the existing industry structure. In Breaking up the handset value chain Jamie Anderson and Martin Zander describe the industry structure in terms of three paradigms which we will also use here.

1. The semiconductor paradigm :
Is the domain of the semiconductor companies such as Texas instruments, Infineon etc. Here, cost reduction is the key driving factor. Hence, economies of scale, Moore’s law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law (Gordon not Geoffrey!) and economies of scale are important. Other than cost reduction, there is little scope for differentiation in this paradigm.

2. The telecom paradigm
The telecom paradigm is the domain of the OEMs like Nokia, Sony Ericsson etc. The buyers in sector are the Telecoms operators and there is a constant tradeoff between new requirements vs. the cost of production. Here, the volumes matter but the features matter as well!

3. The computing paradigm
The features in the computing paradigm are driven by the PC industry and by convergence with the PC/Web. Here, the application, operating system and other services are the main drivers.

Knowing the above, here is the existing scenario in the handset value chain

Firstly, the OEMs ..

a) Nokia is the undisputed market leader – with excellent supply chain capabilities and great execution which lead it to dominate both the low end and the high end segments(smartphones)

b) Handset growth continues in Asia and Asia will be a key market anyway. Nokia dominates this market through a combination of factors

c) Nokia continues to excel on the computing paradigm – for instance its emphasis on Mobile Ajax, Mobile Widgets, acquisition of Navteq and its belief that it is an Internet company

d) While Nokia focuses on scale and convergence, Sony Ericsson focuses on handsets that do ‘one thing well’. They also have considerable success with this strategy.

e) Samsung and LG have a broad strategy. Considering Nokia’s historical weakness in the USA and the willingness of Samsung and LG to customize handsets according to the Operator’s wishes – they do well in America.

f) Motorola .. Did many things wrong post RAZR. But from our standpoint, Motorola was focused on technology and not enough on the features, services and aesthetics of a device. As Dean Bubley says in his usual skeptical viewpoint :) - and I paraphrase .. If it were possible for Motorola to port Fortran on phones .. they would try! Which kind of sums up Motorola’s strategy.

Next, the other players and related developments

a) The semiconductor vendors continue to suffer from the same trends that affect them with cost being their primary differentiation. The chipset vendors need at least 2.5B$ of sales to cover their R and D expenses. (Arete consulting). It is already in consolidation mode with existing players like TI, freescale, Infinion etc being affected.

b) ODMs may move up the value chain. In a first of its kind , Taiwanese ODM BenQ mobile moved up the value chain by acquiring the assets of Siemens but ultimately itself went into administration.

c) Qualcomm focused on the chipset for CDMA giving up their handset ambitions

d) Reflecting the significance attached to the modular nature of Linux as discussed above, we see the emergence of a whole raft of Linux integration vendors such as Windriver.

e) ODMs like HTC continue to focus on technical excellence and are focused on devices like the HTC touch, Android and Windows

f) MSM – Mobile software management is a key development and one to watch. MSM relates to deep customization of handset software at all stages of the lifecycle (not just post production). Technologies like FOTA (firmware over the air update) are a part of MSM. Andreas has a good post about this What if handset features could shape and evolve with the user? the user side of mobile software management

And then the iPhone came along and shook up the ecosystem. The billing relationship was changed and the handsets were no longer subsidised. The customers still continued to buy the iPhone. For the first time, the Mobile Web became a differentiating factor. Develops were important. Developers had a chance to make money. Advanced features of devices like search were used for the first time.

ANDROID
It is in this backdrop that Android makes an entrance .. and I hope you have been following this article so far .. It was necessary to set all this context before we discuss Android.

So, knowing the above, what can we say about Android
a) Firstly, Android is a computer and not a phone . It has no IMS stack and hence leaves the network layer applications for the Operator. (No SIP/IMS stack for Android )

b) As hardware and software become commoditised, the Android offers a cheaper ‘software toolkit’ for to build devices.

c) Increasingly differentiation will be based on brand and softer elements like customer service. Android works well with this trend

d) The software layer has been well thought out in a holistic manner – especially its integration with the Web. For instance, photos can be accessed from online services (and not just from the phone’s memory). XMPP protocol can be used to send data to other Android applications(handset capability exchange)

e) As services become important, so do developers!

CROSSING THE CHASM
When we think of all the above factors, the only certain thing is: there is considerable flux in the handset value chain and that the past will be substantially different from the future. Hence, a new entrant will probably choose a battlefield where it can serve a segment of the market which may be underserved today. This is the philosophy behind Geoffrey Moore’s seminal book Crossing the chasm which says ..
A company should focus on a single market, a beachhead, win domination over a small specific market and use it as a springboard to adjacent extended markets to win. .

The ‘springboard’ is a market segment that is ignored or underserved by the existing players

Consequently, the question should be:
Who benefits from the introduction of an entire open source software stack?

There are many possibilities of new entrants to the device value chain given the existing flux in the value chain. For instance:

• Chipset vendors who may aspire to become OEMs

• ODMs who may venture into OEM territory;

• Operators who may want to assemble their own devices

• SIM card vendors who may want to build their own device,

• Brands who have been burnt by the MVNO trend – but will see the possibility to create new devices

• Wimax vendors looking for wimax devices and so on ..

These new categories will become the ‘beachhead’ from which Android may start. Thus, Android attempts to solve a problem which can be best understood when viewed across the value chain within a historical context especially keeping the trend of commoditization in view. A whole bunch of new manufacturers start up in the mobile phone business – mainly because they can!! A ‘long tail’ of handset manufacturers if you will!

CONCLUSIONS
To recap again ..

Just like the PC industry, both hardware and software components of mobile devices are being standardized. The device (both hardware and software) becomes malleable i.e. conceptually a kind of ‘putty’/ clay. Once that happens (and as we see below – it is already happening), the value chain changes completely. Android is likely to contribute significantly to this trend – and consequently the primary beneficiaries of Android will not the existing players but a new set of as yet undefined customers OR players in the existing value chain – for example SIM card vendors - who may avail opportunities to develop new capabilities and acquire new customers aka crossing the chasm

The timing for both iPhone and Android is good - there is considerable disillusionment in the industry at the moment and the customers’s appetite has been whetted by the success of the iPhone – opening opportunities for new players.

As usual, comments welcome and thanks for reading this to the end!

CHANGES
Changed to : Who benefits from the introduction of an entire open source software stack? - Thanks Andreas / Visionmobile

Posted by ajit at 10:22 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack

great video from Mark Pesce about twitter ..

well worth watching! great video from Mark Pesce about twitter ..

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May 24, 2008

Inspiring: Barack Obama's use of the Internet for campaigning ..

I have been tracking this space since my work at the European Union(Web 2.0, Mobile Web 2.0, Social Web and beyond - My talk at the European parliament ..) - so this is indeed inspiring to see Barack Obama use the Internet to gain grassroots support

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OMTP handset security documents released ..

OMTP has released its new handset security documents. This should be interesting and is well covered in the media including ZD net, Washington post etc

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May 23, 2008

Enterprise 2.0 and product design ..

I have been blogging about the Enterprise 2.0 conference before .. and one missing element in my view is an emphasis on product design.

I have been reading Wharton professor Karl T. Ulrich 's excellent book Product Design and Development and applying these ideas to Enterprise 2.0.

I am curious to see if anyone else has read this book?
In a nutshell, my thinking is: I am trying to understand the basic concepts of product design and then applying the ideas of Enterprise 2.0(Collaboration etc) to these stages

Any comments welcome
Shall blog more on this over time

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May 22, 2008

Power tweeting: 101 everyday uses for twitter ..

Jeff Sonstein sent me this nice link Power tweeting: 101 everyday uses for twitter .. great stuff!

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May 20, 2008

Rearden commerce goes mobile ..

At our forumoxford event - I mentioned that this was a no brainer - i.e. Rearden commerce should be mobile at least for blackberry. and now they are .. I am tracking this space with interest ..

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Carnival of the mobilists No 124 at symbiano-tek blog ..

Carnival of the mobilists No 124 at symbiano-tek blog .. All the way from Egypt .. from Tarek Ghazali's blog .. on his birthday .. All of 19 years old! Wish him many happy returns!

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May 18, 2008

Now twittering in earnest ..

I used to have a twitter account but never used it. I am now trying to twitter in earnest. My twitter account is AjitJaokar and you can follow me

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May 17, 2008

Elephants mate with elephants: The perils of Telecoms/mobile playing second fiddle to the entertainment industry

Elephants mate with elephants ..
I have a friend who often uses the phrase ‘Elephants mate with Elephants’. By that, he means – there is a nexus between the Entertainment industry and the Telecoms Operators (both being ‘big’ i.e. ‘elephants’). The entertainment industry needs channels (aka passive consumers) to sell their content. The Telecoms industry thinks it has these consumers through its portals.

Thus, presumably this was to be a marriage made in heaven ..

However, reality does not reflect this thinking. Today, both the entertainment industry and the Operator portals are both being affected by forces beyond their control.
Ironically, the Telecoms industry is stronger and does not need to play second fiddle to the Entertainment industry. Telecoms and mobility have always been about ‘connecting people’ and there is far greater revenue in connecting people/communications for the telecoms industry - than in becoming conduits for the entertainment industry. (And I am extending the definition of connecting people to also include connecting people to artists)

The telecoms industry has two choices. Either it becomes a conduit for the entertainment industry - which is itself in the throes of a massive transformation and is clutching at straws in attempting to squeeze revenue from 12 year olds (as in the RIAA suing 12 year olds ) OR it embraces its rightful place in ‘connecting people’ - including artists; a task which it has done globally through voice and SMS.

This mindset has a deep impact on the structure of the industry and one which the ‘Old guard’ in both media and telecoms refuse to accept in an ostrich like view of the world.

The problems and opportunities of disintermediation
Before we address the Mobile entertainment industry, let us understand the issues of content disintermediation. Disintermediation is affecting content distributors. However, disintermediation benefits both the customer and the content creator (artist). The Mobile operator portal is a type of distributor – and Operator portals are feeling the impact of disintermediation in a big way. A new category of player has entered the content value chain. We will call them ‘Web aggregators’ and they include Google, Yahoo and others. In the Web 2.0 world, Web aggregators now include the social networks like MySpace, YouTube, Facebook and others. A secondary impact of Web aggregators is the rise of social networks and the emergence of user generated content as a driving force (which reduces the importance of traditional content in real terms) .

Web aggregators(whether traditional Web players like Google or social networks), are directly facing the customer. The entertainment industry thus faces the problem of disintermediation because it no longer faces the customer.

The value chain of the entertainment industry can now be depicted as above (we have put the advertiser at the far left of the diagram to depict the flow of money).
However, disintermediation is an opportunity to the content creator (artist). In doing so, the motivations of the content creators are not the same as the content distributors. In fact, the content creators are on the same side as the customers – with the distributors left disintermediated.

New media is talking about old media
If we further explore the idea of disintermediation of the content distributors (and the alignment of interests between customers and content creators), then we realise that ‘New media is talking about old media’.

Consider this excellent Joss Stone video

As at May 17 2008, it had 884,325 views and 1743 ratings

This is in the interest of Joss Stone (but not necessarily in the interest of the distributors since YouTube is free).

However, no matter how you look at it .. You cannot ignore the Web aggregators. With 50 million MySpace unique visitors, MySpace is comparable to the number of American households that tune to Super bowl. With 100 million YouTube videos every day, YouTube is comparable to Top 15 primetime shows in England (100 million viewers) or Top 4 American shows(source: Navigating the media divide: IBM institute for business value )

Artists have always pursued audiences .. That has never changed. So, we should not be surprised when what started with a few isolated artists like Prince giving their latest album for free in a Sunday newspaper, and with Radiohead allowing their album to be downloaded for free - other artists like Nine inch nails are now doing the same thing - potentially creating a wave of established artists taking this route.

Still not convinced?

Consider another of my favourite artists - Johnny Cash. Enter ‘Johnny Cash’ in youTube and you get a screen as below with Cash ringtones for sale.

Hence, YouTube competes directly with ringtones and other mobile portals. As far as I know, no Operator or mobile portal has YouTube’s figures. Hence, this impacts traditional business models

Winning the battle and losing the war
The impact has been truly dramatic.

In suing 12 year olds and shutting down Napster, the music industry has won the battle but lost the war.

In the Jan 12, 2008 issue of the Economist, I read this interesting story.
The music company invited some kids for a ‘focus group’ (a term going the way of the dinosaur in my view!) . After the meeting, as a token of their appreciation, they offered the kids a free CD. And none of them took the CD! (i.e. they were all used to digital downloads).
This is a case of completely missing the customer’s requirements in an example of the music industry’s Kodak moment(In the sense of Analogue companies struggling to transition to Digital)

Business models in the new world for content?
So, which business models will work in this world of content disintermediation? One of the answers is ‘mobile’ – but not in the way we traditionally think.

The same issue of the Economist (Jan 8, 2008) says that the music industry is facing a triple whammy. Firstly, CDs are selling less – so retailers like Wal-Mart are giving them less shelf space. Secondly, in an effort to cut costs, music labels are spending less on promoting artists and finally, music labels are not investing in the sectors of the music industry growing fastest for instance concerts and tours.

Contrast this with an interesting blog from David Cushman where he says that Robbie Williams had made five times as much money from his deal with T-mobile Sony Ericsson in one year than he had from his record label. He made most of all from touring

>>>
Robbie Williams manager Tim Clark says

"We have to find ways of valuing music because if artists aren't paid something there will be no music, I don't just mean the huge megastars, but also people like King Crimson, who I worked with years ago, and who are still touring and making a living. We all have artists like this who have played a part in our lives and they are the bedrock of music."
"The record companies world is changing. I don't care if they can get the digital revolution or not, I work for artists. I have to find the best way possible to get the music from the artist to the fan."

Interesting also that Sony Ericsson spent six times as much promoting Robbie's latest album in Australia than EMI did.
<<<

So, this points to an interesting trend – the managers for the artists(and consequently the artists themselves) are becoming more significant and are likely to do deals with the newer players(both Web and Mobile)

The music industry should have invested in new channels when it had the money. Now, it is too late. Increasingly, we are going to see established artists follow divergent paths from the music distributors - and 'connecting people' will extend to 'connecting people to artists' We are going to see new models like Advertisement supported music, subsidised services(people do not pay directly for the music), new initiatives like Nokia’s Comes with music which allows customers to download all the music they want and to keep it even when their yearly subs end or they change handsets

And nor is it confined only to established artists as Madonna found out to her surprise when an obscure techno band toppled her in the UK charts.

To conclude
a) Contrary to the Elephants analogy, there are more synergies between Telecoms/mobile as a connection mechanism (both people to people and people directly to artists) than in blindly adopting the arcane business practises of the entertainment industry

b) The entertainment industry is hobbled by outdated business models. These business models will not survive disintermediation

c) The interests of the artists and customers on one side are diverging from those of the music distributors on the other side.

d) Artists and customers benefit from the rise of Web aggregators

e) Extending the analogy of Johnny Cash ringtones, we cannot address Web and mobile in isolation. That’s why I believe initiatives like Mobile Youth are doomed to fail since they ignore the fundamental realities that the youth have a choice (often driven by the Web)

f) Far from mating .. Elephants are facing extinction. The dinosaurs are already dead :)

Many of these ideas are explored in my forthcoming book Open Mobile Ecosystems co-authored with Mauro Del Rio and Anna Gatti

As usual all comments welcome

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May 16, 2008

Enterprise mashups: Mashups that may cross the firewall ..

Following on from my previous post about Enterprise 2.0 conference ( What can you learn from about Enterprise 2.0 from the CIA?) - I have two motivations for this. Firstly, Enterprise 2.0 as a topic is of interest to me and secondly, I am modeling my own business (futuretext) along the lines of Enterprise 2.0.

More on that soon ...

Dion Hinchcliffe (also a speaker at the Enterprise 2.0 conference) has an excellent blog about mashups as the next software development model.

Where he says ..
Since the mashup story is primarily being driven by spontaneous activity at the edge of the Internet, an accurate and updated picture of what's actually happening with them is harder to make out than if it was being driven by a centralized industry effort. And as it turns out, this makes what's happening richer and more exciting than it would be otherwise while at the same providing significant challenges for those that want to take these compelling ideas and apply them deliberately to solve business problems.

I was thinking about ‘which spontaneous activity at the edge of the Internet’ can transcend to the Enterprise? Here is one .. And it remains my favourite mashup of all time .

Aircraft Tracking in Second Life - A mashup of a ‘real life’ feed from Los Angeles airport with second life created by a UK based company called Daden(who do some cool work in the virtual worlds space.

The visualisation takes fboweb.com's near-live data of aircraft locations around Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) and displays the aircraft as small models in Second Life over a map of southern California. Each aircraft shows its flight number and its location, altitude and direction mirrors that of its real world counterpart. The display updates every minute and the aircraft are moved to their new locations. An avatar can walk across the map, examining each aircraft and can touch an aircraft in order to reveal its flight path data.

You can see the YouTube video here ..

So, this is a really cool innovation/mashup that could probably not be conceived within an enterprise but may well be accepted across the firewall!

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May 15, 2008

What can you learn from the CIA about Enterprise 2.0?

I am going to be doing a series of posts about Enterprise 2.0 especially as the Enterprise 2.0 conference is next month in Boston. I would have loved to attend this event – however between the web technology conference in Hong Kong where I am giving the keynote and Supernova 2008(where I am also speaking) – attending Enterprise 2.0 in Boston will not be possible.

However, since I have been interested in Enterprise 2.0, and it looks like a great conference and many friends like Dion Hinchcliffe and others are speaking there .. I will do a series of blogs on this topic leading up to this conference. These may include interviews of speakers and other insights

There is a very interesting session by Don Burke and Sean Dennehy from the CIA about Intellipedia.

What can the CIA teach you about Enterprise 2.0?

Apparently, quite a lot as it transpires. (For the record – I have always been supportive of security and defence personnel since I believe that they are doing a great job under very difficult circumstances)

Here is an example from the same two speakers when they spoke at Harvard

>>>
Burke explains that the Intellipedia encompasses three core principles to help organizations overcome hurdles to adopting the new technology and its culture. The first is to work topically rather than organizationally. Information does not have to bear the seal of the organization. Instead, the community is better served with the Intellipedia aggregating information on a topic. This permits all appropriate members of the community to work topically, which also helps eliminate territoriality with regard to authorship. Debate can focus on the topic instead of on its source organization.

The second core principle involves the audience. Dennehy allows that Intellipedia users are encouraged to work to the broadest audience possible, which again runs counter to the prevailing culture of specialization amid need-to-know. He notes that many students who have participated in a sabbatical program want to interact with military and diplomatic colleagues who often have Secret, rather than Top Secret, network access. With Intellipedia residing on those two networks along with the sensitive-but-unclassified network, this interaction is enabled through the secret Internet protocol router network (SIPRNET).

Burke adds that one hurdle to this principle is that the audience is changing. Formerly, the audience would be defined by the network level to which the broadest audience has single-click access. The solution is to encourage users to work as broadly as they can where they can access easily without needing to switch between systems.

The third key principle is to replace existing processes. Burke relates that many prospective users believe that they are too busy to learn a new tool or to deposit information in more than one place. What they perceive as additional tasks dissuades them from adopting the Intellipedia. The third principle aims to convince these users to replace their current processes with the new ones that represent a more efficient and effective way of doing business instead of adding more duties.
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This session will be very interesting. And it is nice to see organizations like the CIA engage with people and conferences.

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May 14, 2008

Mobile Web 2.0 Worth Over $22 Billion by 2013?

Juniper research claims that by 2013 Mobile Web 2.0 will be worth $22 billion dollars. Having co-authored the book Mobile Web 2.0 alongwith Tony Fish .. I should be happy .. But I am not.

There appear to be two obvious flaws in this line of thinking ..

Firstly, the report seems to be throwing in the kitchen sink when it says that 'Leveraging ‘Location, IM, Social Web & Search’ 2008-2013'. Consequently, it does not have much meaning if we start to combine all these aspects along with the creation and the social aspects of Mobile phones(which I think are the key factors). The report also seems to add the advertising and the Mobile Web market to it as well - which are two distinct aspects in themselves.

Secondly, the report does not seem to cover open devices vs. closed devices. In my view, that factor will play a key part in the deployment of Mobile Web 2.0 whichever way you look at it

In many ways, considering the hype labels attached to Web 2.0 and also Mobile Web 2.0 – a black hat thinking is necessary

Almost every forecast for the mobile data industry has been proven wrong - and I suspect this is too optimistic as well as all encompassing

And finally, many of the interpretations of Mobile Web 2.0, Mobile 2.0 etc are already in the public domain(if you cover this blog, Dan Appelquist's talks, blog and Rudy De Waele's blog - you should get most viewpoints.

And its all in the public domain!

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A sad day for Jaipur - India

From the BBC

From the BBC
>>>>

Pattern to India bombs say papers

Newspaper headlines on the blasts in Jaipur on May 14 2008
The blasts made front page headlines

Tuesday's series of blasts in the western Indian city of Jaipur have dominated the front pages of India's newspapers. The papers say the explosions appear to be the result of a planned operation and followed a pattern of recent similar attacks.

"And Now, It's Jaipur" says The Times Of India.

The newspaper says the explosions were the "21st terror attack" outside Indian-administered Kashmir in the past three years.

It says Tuesday evening's blast bore "close resemblance" to similar explosions in a temple in the holy city of Varanasi, the train bombings in the western city of Mumbai and the suburbs of Malegaon in western India over the past two years.

The paper quotes unnamed sources saying the blasts "pointed to a sophisticated operation that only foreign-trained groups are capable of executing".

The newspaper also says that the blasts, which happened in "affluent and predominantly Hindu areas" were aimed at "fuelling" tension between communities.

"Death and fear in Jaipur" says The Indian Express

The paper says the blasts came on the 10th anniversary of India's nuclear tests that were held in the Rajasthan state.

'Main target'

"[Hindu] temples seemed to be the main target," the paper says.

The newspaper says there was no alert by security agencies on a possible terrorist attack in Rajasthan and the strikes took the state and federal governments "by surprise".

The paper says that "internal security agencies have picked up no cross-border communication or intercept in Kashmir and the linkage to terrorists operating in the [Kashmir] valley is being ruled out at present".

"Terror Strikes Pink City", is the headline in the Hindustan Times

A man injured in the blasts in Jaipur on May 14 2008
Doctors traced relatives of dead patients from their mobile phones

The paper quotes eyewitnesses saying that the old city of Jaipur was targeted because they were inhabited by Hindus and Muslims.

"Since both communities were targeted, it is clearly an attack on India," they told the newspaper.

It also quotes a senior police officer in Indian-administered Kashmir as saying: "The roots of all these acts of terror are in Pakistan."

"Pink City Turns Red" says The Pioneer.

The paper says that although the police "suspected the hand" of a Bangladesh-based group behind the attack, "it is yet to find any link between the blasts and this outfit".

The Hindu reports that the doctors at one of the hospitals in Jaipur where the dead and the injured were taken after the blast used the mobile phones of the dead to convey the news to their relatives.

"Of the 20 bodies brought to the hospital, the mobiles on the three started ringing... The doctors, who had declared them dead, had to pass on the news to their relatives on the mobiles of the victims."

"Bloodbath In Pink City" is the headline in the Mail Today.

The paper reports that many Jaipur-bound foreign tourists had cancelled their travel plans after the explosions.

Tuesday's blasts, the paper says, "may not be the best advertisement" for a state which attracted 1.4 million foreigners last year.

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Keynote at Asia Pacific web technology conference ..

I am speaking as a keynote speaker for the Asia pacific web technology conference organised by the government of Hong Kong. If you are in Hong Kong during that week, we can meet

>>>
What is Asia Pacific Web Technology Conference?

Asia Pacific Web Technology Conference is a conference for latest web technologies, funded by the Government of HKSAR and supported by IT professional bodies in Hong Kong. It aims to connect international industrial leaders and technology experts for fostering the web technology development in the region. Asia Pacific Web Technology Conference features international successful and innovative leaders and companies to present emerging Internet technologies, development strategies and frameworks as well as business models with the focus on the development of Web 2.0 applications.

Asia Pacific Web Technology Conference will attract the participation of international technology leaders and experts, government representatives and professional bodies of Hong Kong, China and the globe.
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May 13, 2008

Verizon wireless being sued: The legal minefield of mobile social networks

From RCR wireless ..

A very significant post. from RCR wireless Emphasis mine.
Thanks to Kim Dushinski for pointing this to me

By Colin Gibbs

You may not have noticed last week’s news that Verizon Wireless is being sued by the parents of a 14-year-old girl who claims she was sexually assaulted by a man she met through a mobile social-networking service. But the case is likely a little taste of what’s to come for operators over the next few years.

In case you missed it, RCR Wireless News beltway reporter Jeff Silva broke the story that the girl — who is described as “developmentally delayed” — claims to have met the 31-year-old man through Upoc Networks, a startup that operates a mobile social-networking service available through Verizon’s “Get It Now” storefront (and elsewhere). The man allegedly sexually assaulted her on two separate occasions two years ago, according to the lawsuit, which also claims the carrier is liable because it failed to warn the family that the phone was capable of accessing the Internet and downloading social applications. (Verizon has declined to comment on the case.)

The news isn’t surprising, of course, given the flurry of litigious activity surrounding online communities. MySpace has become embroiled in several similar legal tussles, and has hired a company run by a former New York cop to weed out sexual predators who create online profiles in the hopes of luring under-age members. Facebook has come under scrutiny, too: The Connecticut attorney general last year began investigating the social-networking flavor of the month to determine whether convicted sex offenders had built profiles on what has become the next big thing in community sites. And chest-thumping politicians have joined the fray, introducing legislation to ban convicted predators from the white-hot Internet destinations.

But the latest legal action appears to mark the first time wireless players have been dragged into the courtroom over a social-networking service. And it may be the first in a long line of courtroom battles for carriers as they scramble to tap into the exploding social-networking scene. While Internet service providers have avoided the legal flak, network operators have two obvious weaknesses in these early days of the mobile Internet: As the Upoc case underscores, they’re still largely seen as phone companies, leaving them vulnerable consumers’ claims that they were shocked — shocked! — to learn that cellphones can access the Internet. More importantly, consumers see network operators as endorsers of the offerings that appear on the deck — or, more likely, view on-deck services as the carrier’s own.

Most, if not all, of the recent sex-predator suits brought against the MySpaces and Facebooks of the world have failed to hold any sway with the courts — and for good reason. An assistant professor at Santa Clara University School of Law called the sex-crime lawsuits “obvious losers,” opining that blaming MySpace for actions that take place away from the site presents “a major causation problem.”

Indeed, mobile service providers may have plenty of legal cover in these early days of mobile social communities. But as social-networking services begin to gain mass-market traction in wireless — and as GPS functionality allows members to pinpoint the location of others — we can expect more lawsuits that target carriers as well as those who operate the virtual communities.

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My favourite ad: The best example of engagement marketing?

Alan Moore talks about Engagement marketing - a term he created and refers to it as

Engagement marketing, sometimes called "participation marketing," is a marketing strategy that invites and encourages consumers to participate in the evolution of a brand. Rather than looking at consumers as passive receivers of messages, engagement marketers believe that consumers should be actively involved in the production and co-creation of marketing programs.

While this ad does not invite consumers to actively participate(and has been around for a while) .. It remains one of my most engaging advertisements and one I have watched probably maximum number of times - besides being one of the best songs from a recent artist

What is your example of an ad that has engaged you most and why? Hopefully it may even ask you to participate in some way(perhaps even as a comment on YouTube)

In fact, this blog itself may well be an example of engagement marketing in action i.e. I have engaged with the brand by actively blogging about it

The singer is Jose Gonzalez and you need to go to the very last frame to see who this ad is about. You can also read more about Jose Gonzalez HERE

Every time I visit this stretch of San Francisco, I have the image of the bouncing balls i.e. the ad transcends to a physical place by superimposing in your mind. And I suspect it does the same to many people ..

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Chance to get a free white paper on Blackberry/mobile data ..

Hello all

Louella Miles is a well known UK based business journalist best known for her book Conversations with Marketing Masters

Louella is working on a white paper about blackberry on mobile data devices and productivity/work life balance

In return for a survey, she can give you a copy of the white paper when its launched.

She is looking

(a) to interview SMEs who have noticed an increase in their productivity through the use of such devices as BlackBerry, iPhones, etc.

(b) ask them how is this productivity increase achieved?

(c) ask them how they juggle their work life balance (do their partners get shirty when they take their phones on holiday?)

(d) discover SMEs who don't use such devices, and ask them why

(e) uncover survey data, if any exists, on whether mobile data devices do make a difference to productivity

(f) uncover survey data which reveals whether there are differences from one continental country to another

If this is of interest, please email Louella at louella.miles at writers4management.com

Regards,
Ajit Jaokar

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Mobile Advertising - By Chetan Sharma and friends. Top 10 reasons to buy this book ..

Chetan Sharma, Joe Herzog and Victor Melfi have written a fantastic book on Mobile Advertising – which I highly recommend. If you have known Chetan Sharma (and I have had the privilege of knowing him now for a few years), his hallmark is the extraordinary level of detail he covers both in his blogs and his books. This book keeps up with that tradition.

Here are the top 10 reasons why you should read and buy this book

a) Global coverage covering Europe, North America, Asia etc
b) Lots of data and statistics
c) Realistic viewpoint (no hype – which exists a lot in this space)
d) An emphasis on both technology and business
e) Detailed case studies
f) Tackling the ‘free’ issue i.e. ad funded models
g) Covers both operator and non operator perspective
h) Almost 400 pages!
i) Excellent index
j) The five point framework with a model for ROA (return on advertisement)

For those interested, first chapter is available for download - http://www.chetansharma.com/Mobile_Advertising_Chapter_01.pdf
along with full TOC - http://www.chetansharma.com/Mobile%20Advertising%20Full%20TOC.pdf and Foreword - http://www.chetansharma.com/Mobile_Advertising_Foreword.pdf

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May 12, 2008

A sad day for China ..

Our thoughts and prayers go out to the people of China and especially sad to see that potentially 900 students may have died from one school

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Triumph of the long tail .. How techno band toppled Madonna

This is truly amazing and a reflection of the Long Tail in action. How techno band toppled Madonna

>>>
Commercial dance is a very overlooked genre," Mr Cadman says. "It's quite sad really. The Clubland TV channel is doing fantastically well, it's one of the biggest music channels on Sky.

"It's all upbeat commercial dance, and I think a lot of people want that, and not necessarily when they're in a club."

Their customers are the tens of thousands of people who can be found at nightclubs in towns and suburbs every weekend, he says.

"The clubs that hit the headlines tend to be the named clubs - everyone knows of Cream and Gatecrasher, but what people don't tend to talk about is the club on every street corner.

"It might be a Ritzy or Ikon or Oceana. There are so many of these clubs and they're in every suburban centre. If you take Manchester, it might be the outlying areas - Oldham, Bolton, Stockport.

We've heard it called chav music, council house music
Matt Cadman

"All the town centres tend to be quite cool and built for young executives, who are probably a little bit older, and then in the outside areas you get more kids from 17 to 24 going to clubs, and they tend to be the ones where we do particularly well.

"Where we tend not to do particularly well is within the M25. As soon as you get inside the M25, it's like commercial dance music doesn't exist.

"And 95% of the national media is controlled from within the M25 so I think that's why they don't see it. They just literally don't get it.

"When they hear something like a Scooter or Cascada, they'll think it's rubbish. We've heard it called chav music, council house music, kiddie music - every disparaging term.

"And that's just not how we see it. We love it, we think it's fantastic. And so it's proved - it's not like we're listening on our own. Somebody's wrong somewhere down the line."
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Mobile phones that use Bluetooth to bring Facebook alerts to the street

Mobile phones that use Bluetooth to bring Facebook alerts to the street .. very interesting.

Aka-Aki site

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May 9, 2008

Should your blog be on the OpenGardens blogroll ..

I am revamping the opengardens blogroll. Happy to add any good blogs or recommendations. The OpenGardens blog is ranked at 7 out of 10 at google page rank - so will do good for your google ratings.

I am also looking to link to blogs from all over the world based on criteria below especially from India, Chinese language/Japanese/Korean/German language/Spanish language and europe even if they are not in English

Criteria
The blog must be mobile /wireless/web 2.0/Enterprise 2.0 related
It must have good content
It must be consistent ie not an ocassional post in a month
I especailly welcome global blogs (even if they are not in English)

kind rgds
Ajit

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Nokia re-emphasises its Internet credentials ..

From arstechnica

"Our goal is to act less like a traditional manufacturer, and more like an internet company," Kallasvuo told his shareholders. "Companies such as Apple, Google, and Microsoft are not our traditional competitors, but they are major forces that must be reckoned with. Make no mistake: We are taking on these challenges seriously and aggressively."

"When we look at it with the eyes we have now, when regarding pedestrian navigation, map services, digital maps, we are even more excited about the opportunities than when making the decision" to buy Navteq, said Kallasvuo.

Absolutely agree! Very few companies in the existing Telco space are going to dominate the world where the Mobile Internet is the dominant player and Nokia is one of them in my view..

For that matter .. very few existing Telecoms companies are going to survive in my view and there is a lot to be learned form Nokia

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Robbie Williams had made five times as much money from his deal with T-mobile Sony Ericsson in one year than he had from his record label

Fascinating stuff from David Cushman's blog ..

The mobile part in this mix? Well it interested me that Tim revealed Robbie Williams had made five times as much money from his deal with T-mobile Sony Ericsson in one year than he had from his record label. He made most of all from touring (the because effect in full effect!)

Interesting also that Sony Ericsson spent six times as much promoting Robbie's latest album in Australia than EMI did.

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May 8, 2008

Carnival of the Mobilists #122 at Xellular Identity

Carnival of the Mobilists #122 at Xellular Identity. have a read if you have not done so already ..

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Being Digital event - London 10 June

Tony Fish is putting on Being-Digital and it could be the digital event of the summer, covering the mashup of applications and services on the web, mobile and TV.

10th June BAFTA, Piccadilly, London. http://www.being-digital.com/

From their conference media/promotional details

>>>
They have already confirmed many of the best digital executives, entrepreneurs and investors in the UK. The reason that senior people are willing to give their time is that there is a need to discuss & debate the 7 core themes; social, search, advertising, identity, content, location & retail, and understand the implications on investment and cash.

It looks like there will be 30 or so cutting-edge demo companies providing both 1 minute pitches when relevant to a theme and working demos of their products & services. There may be room for one or two more.

TechCrunch UK is running a competition starting on the 11th June for the best Being-Digital Demo Pitch (1 min on stage). The winner will receive free hardware and consultancy from SUN Microsystems and ideas.org (the digital strategy, design and development agency).

130 professional have already registered, they have a capacity limit of 200 on a first paid basis. The event will sell out and you can pay £250 this week or £325 next week.

To register and pay please click here. http://www.mashupevent.com/node/436/register?destination=node/436/register

<<<

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Admob introduces mobile analytics ..

Admob, the industry's favourite poster child for mobile advertising introduces another cool product as they launched their Mobile analytics product last week. conceptually, this is similar to Google analytics on the Web .. and Admob's vast experience on the Mobile Web makes this an interesting product .. You can read more about it on the Admob blog

AdMob Analytics is accepting limited private beta sign ups at the following link: Admob mobile analytics .

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Suddenly Adobe/Flash Lite gets very interesting for mobile devices ...

Adobe has made some very interesting announcements recently. My friend Simeon has a good blog on these developments Adobe’s Open Screen Project Indicates Strategy Alignment

I last met Simeon at Barcelona in 2007 at Mobile World Congress when I was speaking there, and we had a lengthy discussion about Adobe. I remember Sim was optimistic about Adobe/Flash Lite then - but I was not.

My point has always been - on the Mobile web Adobe is not doing what it did on the web(and which made Adobe successful on the web in the first place) i.e. on the Web - it gives the client for free and charges money for the tools. On mobile, it charges a lot of money for the client(at least it did so prior to this announcement). In private discussions I had with Operators and device manufacturers, this had always been a problem for them - thereby slowing uptake of FlashLite.

I know you could argue that the client was not free in the case of FOMA in Japan - but Japan already had a vibrant mobile data industry in the form of imode prior to FOMA(so the FOMA - flashlite was a lesser risk)

However that has changed

The client is now free. That fact along with other changes makes adobe / Flash Lite a much more interesting proposition to watch now on

Its also nice to see Gary Kovacs take on a key new role .. And from my brief interactions with Gary – this is a good move for Adobe with Gary heading mobile developments

Certainly one to watch

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May 5, 2008

PhD research/student looking for a position

I have worked with Khamish on a few projects before and now that he is completing his PhD he is looking for a position. If you are interested in speaking to him, please contact him on the email below

Khamish Malhotra
M.Sc, B.Eng, Dip.Eng, CCNA, MIET, MIAENG

Khamish Malhotra is a research scholar at Faculty of Advanced Technology, University of Glamorgan. He has a Dip. Eng in Medical Electronics from Pusa Polytechnic (1996), a B.Eng in Electronics Engineering from Nagpur Univ. (1999), an M.Sc in Computing and Performance Engineering from University of Bradford (2003). He is currently writing-up for his PhD (Embedded Mobile Internet Technologies for Remote Patient Monitoring Applications) at the Faculty of Advanced Technology, University of Glamorgan. He has got publications on his name in various telecommunication conferences and magazines. He has worked as a part-time lecturer at Faculty of Advanced Technology, University of Glamorgan. . He is currently a member of Institution of Engineering and Technology and International Association of Engineers. He has over 5 years of Information and Communications technology experience gained with leading companies in India and UK.

His areas of research are Mobile related Healthcare, Wireless Remote Monitoring, Performance Modelling and Evaluation, Use of Multimedia over Mobile Networks, Mobile Computing and Network Security.

Please contact Khamish at khamishm at gmail.com

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May 4, 2008

Read write web is five years old..

I missed this one .. Read write web is five years old . A great achievement on behalf of Richard Mc Manus and team! If you dont follow this blog - you should!

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Blogging and the state of PR: Interview on Flacksrevenge blog ..

Bob Geller SVP of fusionpr is one of the savviest PR people I know and who understands new media, blogging and social software.

So, it was a pleasure to be interviewed by Bob for his blog Flacksrevenge. You can see the interview HERE

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Near time connection : An example of Mobile SAAS, Mobile Web, Mobile Widgets and Mobile Ajax in action ..

Near-Time is one of the leading on-demand, Enterprise 2.0 platform for cross organization collaboration. Near-Time combines blogs, forums and wikis and it enables business professionals to create rich interaction with their prospects, customers, partners and suppliers.

Near-Time has recently launched Near-Time connection which extends the Collaborative Capabilities of Near-Time to other Mobile Devices and to iGoogle via Widgets.

It is an example of a single interface / service (driven by the Web) and extending it to mobile devices and to iGoogle and thereby increasing the reach to existing (and potentially new) users.

By that I mean, while Symbian /Nokia support is absent at the moment on Near-Time; Nokia also supports Mobile Widgets in a big way. Hence Near-Time could easily extend the reach of their application to all Nokia/Symbian devices using the same Widget code base.

Through this strategy, application discovery will also be driven by the Web and via multiple channels (for instance – the Widget may be first discovered in iGoogle but the user may also have a Pocket PC device and may use the near-time application on the Web and also on the pocket PC.)

Finally .. By providing the ability to embed widgets into a home page, the user gets a customized product and at the same time overcomes the limitations of widgets themselves(i.e. the single, monolithic focus of a widget). The choice of launch platforms is also interesting (Web + iGoogle, iPhone, Pocket PC and the Blackberry)

I think leveraging the power of the Web, Mobile Web and Widgets by incorporating the ideas of Mobile SAAS, Mobile Web, Mobile Widgets and Mobile Ajax will be increasingly the way to go – fuelled by the greater uptake of the full Web on Mobile devices, Mobile Ajax and Mobile Widgets.

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May 3, 2008

Last.fm scrobbling for Nokia S60 and S40 devices thanks via new MyStrands Social Player

Mystrands have released version 3.1 of MyStrands Social Player, which allows you to scrobble tracks to Last.fm as you play music on S60 and S40 devices. Recently listened tracks on your mobile device will now be available on your Last.fm profile.

See the full announcement and downloads at the Mystrands blog

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May 2, 2008

Mobile connections opportunity at Supernova and Techcrunch ..

Hello all ..

This may be a very big opportunity for someone in the mobile space if you get it right.

Supernova is probably one of the best conferences in the tech visionary space and has played a key role in anticipating critical developments on the path to the Network Age for the last seven years.

Past speakers include Sergey Brin and speakers this year include Jonathan Schwartz, Mike Arrington, Joi Ito and others including me :)

Kevin Werbach, the creator of supernova emailed me about a new initiative they have just announced .. and the upside can be coverage on techcrunch!

For Mobile Connections at Supernova 2008, they are looking for game-changing innovations that provide a glimpse of the wireless future .. and the leading ideas will enjoy coverage on techcrunch.

See details below.

See also the links at the bottom of this email from Kevin to get an ethos of this conference(which is unique)

If you are attending, please email me as well so we can catch up(I am speaking on Wednesday but I will be there for most of the week)

Any qs, please email me at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com or the supernova folk below and I can try and help if possible

The Supernova conference and TechCrunch are looking for the next great mobile ideas.

It's a safe bet that the most significant innovations in the Network Age will be tied to mobile communications. For Mobile Connections at Supernova 2008, we're looking for game-changing innovations that provide a glimpse of the wireless future. This is not another start-up contest -- it's limited to pre-commercial or non-commercial submissions.

We want to hear about concepts, prototypes, research lab projects, hacks, and business ideas, in any area related to mobile communications: devices, applications, interfaces, business models, location-based services, development tools, use cases, transmission technologies, etc. If your submission blows us away, we'll invite you to showcase it at Supernova 2008, June 16th in San Francisco, CA. You'll also enjoy coverage on TechCrunch, the leading media site covering emerging technologies and companies today, and the Supernova Conversation Hub.

There will be no charge for those selected. Email your submission to mobile@supernova2008.com by May 23, 2008. More details at Mobile connections - Supernova and Techcrunch

and also these links from the creator of supernova Kevin Werbach give you an idea about the thinking behind supernova

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jan2005/tc20050126_7264.htm
http://www.news.com/Perspective-Techs-big-challenge-Decentralization/2010-1071_3-963113.html
http://www.news.com/Anticipating-a-post-Web,-post-PC-world/2010-1071_3-1008628.html

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Which mobile/Wireless legislation is needed?; Patientline; Open systems and Rating the nurse in ward two ..

In spite of the flippant sounding headline .. This blog covers an important topic ..

I am an invited expert advisor to the European union Joint research commission - which is a part of the European union pre legislative/policy support initiative.

In many ways, my unorthodox - but also I believe practical - views complement the more traditional view point and it is always great to be a part of this initiative.

I will cover two aspects in this blog ..

Firstly, which aspects should be legislated to facilitate greater uptake of mobile / wireless technology within the European union (and I seek your feedback on this) ..

Although, no big fan of legislation – there are areas where clearly legislation is needed.

My three candidates are
a) Roaming charges

b) Transparency of pricing and

c) Transcoding(this will need a separate blog) – but by transcoding I also mean any ‘retrofitted changes’ to a site from a provider that affects the accessibility of the site itself

Seek thoughts and feedback ..

Also,

I also spoke about my usual viewpoint .. OpenGardens and Open mobile networks and I gave the example of patientline – to explain the problem at a microcosm level.

Patientline , as its name suggests is a network designed to ‘provides communication services to patients’. Patientline was recently in the news for increasing the cost of calls by 160%.

Let’s delve into the background behind this decision ..

Patientline is a monopoly(aka walled garden)
When it was deployed, mobile phones were totally banned from hospitals
So, at great cost (£160m!) and after considerable time, a network was put in to serve the ‘captive’ audience.

Note that the business model (i.e. recouping the investment of the network) and creating a profit on that investment – depended in the customers NOT having a choice ..

After this network was deployed, it was discovered that phones could be used in hospitals(but obviously not near equipment) and certainly they could be used outside the building itself

At this point, after all the cost and expenses, the customer had a choice ..

So, they took it ..

And this explains the hike in prices and the ‘enhanced services’ (TV) introduced in an attempt to recoup costs.

However, this is a part of a more fundamental problem

Openness makes a lot more sense when viewed from a customer standpoint and technology will catch up sooner than we think - breaking business models which restrict the customer.

This is inevitable. Happened to AOL, is happening to Mobile Operators and will happen to Patientline.

And it underpins the LTE vs. wimax debate
"As an industry it takes us a long time to get things done; we need to move faster otherwise others will eat our lunch," said Sarin

And what is the solution?

Accept that networks will be an investment with little returns. However, look to add services on top of a network.

What could that be in case of patientline?
Maybe a social network amongst patients
Maybe a game to rate the nurse in ward two ..

Who knows?

I don’t. And that’s the point

Patientline would need to be viewed as a platform ..

Intelligence will shift away from the core of the network to the edge of the network. And that means, we don’t know what will be the killer application. It will emerge. And it could be even as odd as a social network amongst patients

A deeper discussion about opening up networks and its impact can be found in the blog on Open Mobile and business models relating to open systems

Comments welcome especially on what should be legislated!

In a curious twist ..patientline’s tagline is – The choice is all yours :)

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April 28, 2008

Design for Mobile conference - by Barbara Ballard/Little springs design - Kansas 22-24 Sep

Barbara Ballard is everyone's favourite Mobile design guru and Barbara sent me this message about a new conference they are running . This should be a great event and with speakers like Enrique and Luca .. lots to learn. One of these days, I will finally meet Barbara as well since I have quoted her extensively in the definition of Mobile Web 2.0 !

As per Barbara's message ..

>>>
We at Little Springs Design got impatient with the lack of North American conferences with more than three sessions on mobile design. It was all either "intro to mobility" for designers or "intro to design" for mobilists.

So we are building our own conference, Design For Mobile,22-24 September, in Lawrence, Kansas, USA. Speakers include C. Enrique Ortiz, Morten Hjerde, Luca Passani, Gabriel White, and many more. I've asked each to teach me something new, and I've been focusing on mobile for ten years now.

And since we're not paying UK prices, you can sign up for now the early bird price of USD $945.

Design For Mobile conference

<<<

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April 27, 2008

Why mobile social networks are a unique and a powerful medium for advertisers ..

I have blogged about itsmy before and Antonio Vince Stabyl, a co-founder or itsmy.com was a great speaker at our recent forumoxford emerging technologies conference.

The base numbers for itsmy are very impressive.

To recap, from Vince’s presentation
1 Mio+ reg. mobile users
16 Million Mobile Internet Downloads
5,761,000 Items User Generated Pictures Videos etc.
4.5 Million Wap sites
500 Million Pages/monthtraffic

However, there is an interesting insight which I will present in this blog. I got it in my talks with Vince on the way to Oxford before the conference.

In retrospect, it is obvious .. but it is an important point worth thinking about ..

Although we are facing a new medium(in mobile), the money comes from the same advertisers.

Advertiers are most familiar with TV as a medium which they understand best

Advertisers are still new to the mobile medium. In fact, they are still new to forms of advertising like on YouTube which involve user generated content

However, UGC as a medium for advertising is very powerful because the alternative is a legal minefield(the equivalant of Google posting ads against videos from movies on YouTube – the revenue so availed may need to be shared with the video rights owner)

Even on YouTube, advertisements are best placed against user generated content assuming - permission has been obtained and the content is moderated.

These two factors make Mobile (especially mobile social networks) a very powerful phenomenon because – for most part, they are free but also the reputed ones are moderated.

Consequently, if the medium(mobile social network) is designed to
a) Capture content in return for a free service and
b) That content is moderated and also
c) Presented in the form of channels(which can be a simple collection of the best cars on the site etc)
Then it is very appealing to advertisers assuming the base criteria are also met(critical mass, reach, personalization)

These factors play out even more on mobile devices since Mobile content is driven at the point of inspiration and the mobile device lends itsllf well to the capture of user generated content.

The above makes mobile social networks a unique and a powerful medium for adverisers

Thoughts welcome

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The power of SMS in India and beyond .. and the implications for MMS

I had the pleasure of meeting Rajesh Jain , one of India’s foremost Internet/Mobile entrepreneurs(Rajesh set up Indiaworld. IndiaWorld was acquired in November 1999 by Sify in one of Asia's largest Internet deals for $115 million.). Its flattering to know that Rajesh(and V C Bothra one of India's top bloggers and Netcore's strategist and communities practise head) follow my thinking through my books and blog.

His new company netcore launched a service called mytoday which won the runner up award in the GSMA true mobile startup category.

As with anything in India, the numbers are impressive .. more so with a simple service which has a large, mass market uptake.This simple service has 1% of India's SMS traffic!

Here’s what I mean .. mytoday has

• 2.5 million users

•1% of India’s SMS traffic

•400K new users each month

•8 million SMS sent daily

•2% of India’s SMS Traffic

•2 billion SMS sent so far (15 mos.)

•25+ content channels: Dailies

•10,000 user-created groups: Mobs

•100+ enterprise channels: BizBond

•Mobile Portal: mytoday.mobi

But what about the future? The future according to Rajesh(both in India and beyond) lies with richer media such as MMS. This is interesting since I have been discussing the same trend recently with Russell Buckley. The mobile web is clearly showing resurgence but a second candidate is MMS. MMS has had many a false dawn but it may finally be getting some traction as a mass market medium – both in emerging markets and mature markets.
For example – This post from Mobile point of view China's news media is in full blossom of mobile adaptability is an indicator and this is fuelled by MMS.

China's rapid economic development and per capita GDP growth has driven vigorous development of the media industry with a growth rate of 11.9% in 2005, two percentage points beyond that of China's GDP. In 2006, the growth rate exceeded 12%. Sub-channel growth percolates along, with the Internet, digital television, new media (mobile) and advertising all growing rapidly and especially those industries/companies related to digital TV which are expected to be the core center of investment in 2007. This is all drawn from an interesting Chinese government "blue paper" report released last month by China's MII.

So, my impression is – if MMS can achieve even a fraction of the reach of SMS, then publishers(including futuretext) can gain considerably from it – along with the uptake of the Mobile Web.

Seek thoughts and feedback.

Is MMS maturing in emerging markets?
Will we see the same trends in mature markets?
What holds MMS back?
Is it a medium for publishers?
What is the cost structure of MMS in mature and emerging markets?

I must admit it’s been a while since I followed MMS but the traction gained by companies such as netcore with a service like Mytoday is impressive.

Qs is: Are we seeing a trend here?

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Carnival of the mobilists No 120 at the skydeck blog ..

Posting late since travelling. Carnival of the mobilists No 120 at the skydeck blog. Great read as usual.

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April 25, 2008

Book review: Trust, Complexity and Control: Confidence in a Convergent By Piotr Cofta

Book review
I bought Trust, Complexity and Control: Confidence in a Convergent
World (Hardcover) By Piotr Cofta at Barcelona (Mobile World Congress) and have been reading it extensively since.

Here are my thoughts about this book which I highly recommend if you are interested in Identity, Reputation, Trust and other related topics.

As Chief researcher, Identity and trust BT UK, the author is an expert in his field. So, in addition to the author's expertise which comes across in this book, here are some more thoughts

The book takes a stand/proposition in postulating a confidence model which the author explains in detail and uses throughout the book. This is a good thing in my view i.e. the comprehensive / expert viewpoint is better than too many divergent viewpoints which can be confusing
from a learning perspective. However, the confidence model is contrasted against other models such as McNight, Lee and Egger (Comparative analysis of the model of confidence Ch 4) – so we get a balanced view after gaining a detailed understanding of one model.

Wearing my PhD / research hat on – if you are involved in reputation or Identity etc you will have to build your own reputation model (or extend an existing reputation model). In that context, it's very useful to read about a reputation model in a book (as opposed to a
paper) and then build on it/contrast it etc.

Section one explains the Confidence model including trust and control; Measurement of confidence; a relative comparison of trust and control and also the 'dark side'

Section two takes a technology approach and covers security, taxonomy of threats, trust enhancing technologies and other areas

Section three takes a convergence approach and covers Ebusiness, Authentication, Privacy, Sim, Trust management (a set of instruments that are used to replicate in the technical domain the relationship that exists between agents in the humans domain)

Pros and Cons of this book

Pros
a) Very readable – inspite of the nature and the complexity of the topic
b) Great depth
c) Research led(draws on research papers)
d) Independent viewpoint(the Confidence model)
e) Considers both technology and the social aspects which is essential
considering the topic
f) In depth coverage of technology
g) Holistic coverage of reputation (ebusiness etc etc)

Cons ..
The only improvement I may suggest is – the Index could be enhanced considering the detail the book covers i.e. it's a relatively small index for a book with so much content

Overall recommendation – Highly recommended.

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April 23, 2008

Report - Identity and reputation systems in telecoms networks covering IMS, SIM and security ..

We are working on a new report / book based on Identity and reputation systems in telecoms networks. This will be a comprehensive and a strategic insight based on interviews (with Operators, SIM manufacturers, handset vendors etc) and covering various elements of the stack (IMS, SIM etc). I will also add insights from my PhD which is based on Identity and Reputation (so research papers will be a source of insights). We will also look to cover elements of the ‘dark side’ of Identity and Reputation.

If you would like to know more, please email me at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com

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April 22, 2008

Web 2.0 set for enterprise spending boom?

Web 2.0 set for enterprise spending boom .. Too bullish even for me .. but the BBC seems to think so! I agree with the Enterprise focus to some extent but tempered by the econmonic downturn .. i.e. with a slowing down of the economy, will companies see Enterprise 2.0 as mainstream?

I think there are clearly some value propositions .. but merely wikis and blogs wont do it. Prior to entering the mobile data industry, I used to work for PeopleSoft/Oracle Corporation - and selling anything to corporate is always a different value proposition from the Web 2.0 model i.e. essentially we are selling a license model/SAAS model. So, while tools (blogs and wikis) may be sold in this way, its another thing to sell the value proposition .. I think thats missing and to do that we need to tie back the service to cost reduction, product design etc. I have blogged about this idea a while ago in Enterprise 2.0, Web 2.0 and mobility. And obviously I believe that mobility will have an important role to lay in Enterprise 2.0 as well(Dont think of just phones - think HSDPA and other applications) as well as developments like Cloud computing

More on this soon

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April 21, 2008

My impressions about the forumoxord future technologies conference ..

Firstly, many thanks about the kind words about me, Tomi and Peter at many places in blogosphere.

Tomi and I chaired the forumoxford future technologies conference last week. Join forumoxford free at www.forumoxford.com

As I summed up in my concluding comments, industry veterans like Jag Minhas of O2, Andrew Greenhalgh of Intel and David Wood CTO of Symbian all stayed for the whole day – and that in itself is a testament to the quality of the event.

Alex Kerr spoke of a ‘soul’ at this event and Tomi mentioned that this event has the feeling of ‘family’.

What is special about us?

I believe that the forum and the event have a unique ethos which permeates both its online and offline interaction.

As I said in my opening remarks, the ethos was the genesis for forumoxford which Tomi and I conceptualised at the Café Nero at the Dickens and Jones in Oxford Circus back in Aug 2005. To summarise that ethos was (and still is!):

Everybody wants to build social networks/communities. Few succeed.
It's not a question of putting money into it! The philosophy matters
Technical excellence/ Knowledge of subject matter is the only currency
Be truly global
Treat people as adults – keep very few rules and regulations
Be business friendly (people can talk about their company in a thread)
Content matters
Conflicting viewpoints are OK
Understand community from a practical standpoint (allow hotmail/gmail address so people can speak freely)

Also, Tomi, Peter and I can take credit for one specific element of the day .. And that is in the selection of topics and speakers.

Unlike many conference organisers, with some humility, I can say that we do know the industry deeply .. And across many facets. Hence, we took a very granular approach.

For instance – we did not want ‘IMS’ – we wanted someone who had integrated IMS to facebook(Niklas Blum of Fraunhofer FOKUS), We did not go for an ‘Operator’ – we chose David Pollington of Vodafone Betavine for their pioneering work in device APIs for browsers. We did not choose a device manufacturer – we invited Mark Selby of Nokia to talk about Nokia’s pioneering work with Ovi. We did not want to talk about iPhone … we invited an industry veteran in Mr William Volk who developed real iPhone applications.

We did not speak of Mobile social networks – we got Antonio Vince Stabyl of itsmy.com who have 2.5 million ‘mobile only’ profiles. For Mobile design we got the ‘God’ of mobile user interface and design himself in Martin Lindholm!

We did not speak of ‘mcommerce’ – we got Simon Cavill of MiPay– one of the best people who I know in this space .. Who develop real life systems for emerging economies based on their immense experience. We did not get ‘Google’ – we got one of the early implementations of Google enterprise in the talk from Krzysztof Proczka from the Polish Operator Polkomtel and Matt Landeg from Google(i.e. a cooperation between Google and an Operator for Enterprise strategy) And then we had Jonathan Mc Donald from Blyk .. Who is pioneering some new directions in Mobile advertising and personalization .. and a debate between Tomi and Dean Bubley(which I had the un-enviable task of moderating!)

I could go on ..

The choice of speakers and their topics was absolutely critical and we thank all the speakers for their great contribution.

And reflecting our international audience on the forum, we also had a very international group of speakers ..

Luciana Pavan(MTV) from Brazil
Niklas Blum and Antonio Vince Stabyl from Germany
Cameron Doherty and William Volk from USA
Krzysztof from Poland
Christian from Finland
And ofcourse .. Tomi and I have three nationalities each! (For Tomi – Finnish, Hong Kong and British) and for me British, Indian and New Zealander.

So, what were my recollections of the day?

One of the most memorable images in my mind is a conversation between Simon Cavill and William Volk when Simon was presenting about funds transfer in developing companies.

William said .. ‘This is like printing money!’ To which Simon replied .. ‘It gets even better!. Think airtime! Its like having YOUR OWN currency’.(trading in airtime)

I could almost hear Mr Volk think – ‘The dollar’s down the tube .. And these Europeans are creating their own currencies .. Maybe ..I should emigrate! :)

Here are more detailed notes ..

Mark Selby –
How many people control their own wife/partner? We don’t think of it in that way because it is a relationship. In the same way, we as an industry cannot hope to ever ‘control’ a customer

Back in the 70s, Convergence was a set of three arrows pointing to a yellow cloud (IT, Media and Telecoms) and everyone expected to ‘solve’ the problem in a matter of months

DRM is an odd concept. If you threw a device into a window, can you blame the manufacturer for the damage to the window? If not, how can we hope to legislate against devices?

OVI is an open platform customers can choose which feeds they can display on OVI(for instance CNN etc etc) – not necessarily from Nokia.

Abolish the word user generated content!!

William Volk
Apple created a new ecosystem. That’s the key difference. So should others(hear hear!)

Alan Moore
Straight lines are made by man! Nature has networks
Customers connect, corporations broadcast!

Simon Cavill
Airtime could be the euro of the developing world!

Mark Landeg(Google)
Lets not talk of eating their lunch(Operator’s lunch). Lets speak of a new menu!

Antonio Vince Stabyl
Do we ‘Caralize’ airlines? I.e. develop a new format based on an earlier format?
Doctors and other demographics who have never heard of online social networks, are directly adopting mobile social networks
4 seconds after an earthquake – they had the first images. That’s the power of mobile!
New mediums have new leaders

Christian ..
Key design principles .. How much can you do with one hand? What’s the largest device that can fit inside a pocket
A ‘PC’ is a swear word in Nokia!

So, that’s it!

In conclusion, I spoke to Peter Holland at the evening drinks .. And we said .. We have created an institution .. The ethos of community, the spirit of the members and technical excellence is the key driver .. And it may well outlive us all ..

On my side, I would like to thank forum members, event attendees, speakers, sponsors and specifically my three partners in crime :) Tomi Ahonen, Peter Holland and Dr Rebecca Lingwood .. without whom we would never be here today!

Join forumoxford free at www.forumoxford.com

Many thanks once again!

Kind rgds

Ajit

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April 17, 2008

OpenGardens and the most honest (candid) man in telecoms - Cincinnati Bell's Jack Cassidy

There is a fascinating article in the Forbes magazine this week - (the whole issue is great since it’s the Forbes richest people in the world issue – which I have always read/bought for many years now). It talks of Cincinnati Bell's Jack Cassidy as the most honest man in Telecoms (honest in the sense of being candid and accepting what the customer wants aka the OpenGardens philosophy).

This brief article captures the essence and also the future of telecoms networks (that the network itself declines in value tending to free). But at the same time, new open mobile based business models will emerge based on services where the provider can create to gain critical mass and competitive advantage.

As I was reading it, I thought that we have to ask ourselves these two questions: Firstly, Is the future of telecoms local? I.e. can a company be profitable by defying the normal trends and ‘super serving’ a specific geography? (Note this is not the same as an MVNO which serves a customer segment and not necessarily geography). And secondly, can the experience of Cincinnati Bell be extended to Mobile data (at the moment, it applies mainly to voice and other services). If indeed, that were possible i.e. a Telecoms company can serve the local population by working closely with local communities and businesses, then it has a truly competitive advantage. An alliance of such networks would then be profitable. The difference being – the approach is ‘bottom up’ rather than ‘top down’

Worth thinking about as you read this article.

The three memorable quotes from this article in my view are as below
"We forecast where the bottom was in long distance, and we just got there first," he says. To which I add .. Whoever gets mass market and serves the customer will have a unique competitive advantage ..

And

"If the customer likes it, then it doesn't matter what it does to your economics--it's going to happen,"

And the classic

Is the telecom industry facing the hard truths? "No," laughs Cassidy. "You've got the wheels and the tires and the carriage--and you can't figure out the customer doesn't want the damn horse."

Here is a full list of quotes I like .. And it’s really refreshing to see thinking .. May Jack’s tribe prevail .. Seek thoughts and comments. Full link to article below

1) In an industry dominated by nationwide giants, Cincy Bell still serves essentially the same geographic area it was granted in 1878, a circle with downtown Cincinnati at its center. But it serves that circle well. In its region Cincinnati Bell is the most popular provider of home phone, mobile and high-speed Internet services.

2) Unlike its peers, Cassidy's Bell has come to believe that communication lines must be open. That means not locking customers into two-year cellular contracts. "Such a silly concept," scoffs Cassidy. It means letting customers switch to new technologies, like Wi-Fi, that are likely to cost him money. "If the customer likes it, then it doesn't matter what it does to your economics--it's going to happen," he (Jack) says. Cassidy's philosophy: anticipate the inevitable, don't fight it. In the late 1990s, when Cincinnati Bell got into the lucrative long-distance market, Cassidy set the price of a call at 10 cents a minute, roughly half the going rate but still enough to preserve a modest margin for Cincinnati Bell. Cassidy won an 80% market share in less than six months. It still has 70%. "We forecast where the bottom was in long distance, and we just got there first," he says.

3) Sitting in his office overlooking the Cincinnati skyline, Jack Cassidy launches into a story about the biggest business cock-up in his hometown's history. A century ago Cincinnati was home to the Midwest's horse-drawn carriage industry, and its leaders were very loyal to buggy power. So loyal they let Detroit drive off with the auto industry. "I'm sure the last horse-drawn carriage made in Cincinnati was the finest ever built," says Cassidy.

4) Is the telecom industry facing the hard truths? "No," laughs Cassidy. "You've got the wheels and the tires and the carriage--and you can't figure out the customer doesn't want the damn horse."

From: The most honest (candid) man in telecoms - Cincinnati Bell's Jack Cassidy

Seek thoughts and feedback .. This article is exactly what the OpenGardens blog is all about ..

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April 15, 2008

Carnival of the Mobilists #119

CoM # 119 is up at mobilejones. Dont miss some great insights at the carnival at Debi Jones's blog

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I am in the New York times this Mon ..

I am in the New York times this monday. Thanks to Peter Holland and others who pointed this out to me.

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April 11, 2008

Carnival of the mobilists No 118 at Mobile Point of View by Paul Ruppert.

Carnival of the mobilists No 118 at Mobile Point of View by Paul Ruppert. Great read as usual.

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Am I the only one who uses Gmail with Blackberry .. and what does it say for mobile apps ..

I wonder if I am the exception here ..

Like many people I am addicted to gmail and love it

so much so that I use it on my blackberry(as a downloadable app or in browser mode)

Is this an exception?

What does it say for mobile applications? i.e. if I have an excellent web application .. people will want to use it on the phone .. rather than get a phone specific app

Having said that, gmail interface on the phone is excellent .. so thats another indication .. maybe online apps will need lots of ui people for mobile?

I was also intrigued by the fact that I am ignoring the best function of the blackberry (push email) in favour of gmail and using the device as a glorified keyboard. This does favour the SAAS theory(software as a service which is supported by Cloud computing and is device agnostic)

PS: William Volk says that he also uses GMail via the iPod Touch email app, also gets his corporate mail (POP) this way.

So, I dont feel so wierd any more!

Interesting to see any other views ..

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Human rights 'apply to UK troops'

Human rights 'apply to UK troops'. This is good news. Whats sad is .. its been debated and Ministers are appealing against the ruling.

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Forumoxford future technologies conference Fri 18 April 2008

Hello all
I co-chair this event every year alongwith Tomi Ahonen and like last year, this year should be great as well.

The ForumOxford conference is on Friday 18 April 2008. Cost to attend is £195 (approx €245 / $380), which includes lunch, refreshments and post-conference drinks.

Conference details are at Forumoxford future technologies conference

Secure online payment and registration at - Forumoxford future technologies conference payment and registration

Confirmed speakers (running order to be announced):

* Mark Selby - Nokia
* Social Marketing Intelligence, the Black Gold of the 21st Century - Alan Moore, Xtract
* Mobile Social Networking - Antonio Vince Stabyl, CEO, ItsMY
* Youth and Mobile and Music and TV - Luciana Pavan, MTV
* iPhone Applications - William Volk, CEO, MyNuMo
* User-generated Mobile Advertising - Jonathan MacDonald, Blyk
* Mobile Initiated Financial Services in the Developing World - Simon Cavill, Director, Mi-Pay Ltd
* How to Integrate Facebook with IMS - Niklas Blum, Fraunhofer FOKUS
* Browser Extensions (DOM extensions) and Accessing Device APIs - Ajit Jaokar, OpenAjax Alliance and David Pollington, Vodafone
* Delivering a Global Mobile Service - Cameron Doherty, CEO, Mobile Concierge
* Dawn of a New Mobility - Casual Computing: Thoughts on the Future of Mobiles, Service and Their Adoption - Christian Lindholm, Fjord
* An Example of Mobile Search in Poland, the Implementation of Google Search Appliance on Plus.pl - Krzysztof Proczka, Brand Manager, Polkomtel

Hope to see you in Oxford on 18 April.

Regards

Peter Holland, Technology Programme, University of Oxford

Conference sponors:

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April 9, 2008

net neutrality, iPlayer, BBC

This is a fascinating article from the BBC

Some quotes:

Mr Gunter: network guy
"The question is about whether we invest in extra capacity or go to the consumer and ask them to pay a BBC tax," he said.

"Inflammatory comments about blacklisting ISPs do not help. There seems to be a lack of understanding about how networks are built. Either we are not explaining it properly or it is falling on deaf ears," he added.

Mr Highfield: content guy
told the BBC's Today programme such "inflammatory" comments were not helpful.

"The success of the iPlayer should be of benefit to the whole UK broadband industry, increasing those who want to take up broadband," he said.

"It may be putting extra strain on the network but it would be a bit odd for the BBC to fund such an upgrade," he said.

In his BBC blog last week Mr Highfield laid out a 19-point plan of action for ISPs, and warned they should not try to charge content providers.

"Content providers, if they find their content being specifically squeezed, shaped, or capped, could start to indicate on their sites which ISPs their content works best on (and which to avoid)."

In an ironic twist, the BBC is state funded and the networks are not!!

See : article on the BBC

Now where have I heard these arguements before? :)

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April 8, 2008

Critical mass (reach) is a prerequisite to personalization

In my previous blog, Personalization is not a substitute for critical mass - from Zagme to Blyk, I talked about the importance of critical mass.

Here is why I think it’s critical to get to high volumes - and only then is personalization relevant. The model draws from memory with Zagme and also may apply in a similar context to newer players like Blyk and also Operators who are attempting similar strategies

PS: As I write this, Sonpoia shuts down and also I note that dotmobile is in administration

Too early to say why .. but we have friends in both places .. so sad news ..

Coming back to the question ..

The question is - Why do we need critical mass and why do we say that critical mass is a prerequisite to personalization

Assume a total audience of 100,000 people (Zagme was 85,000 and Blyk aims to get to 100,000 later this year)

Assume 20p/MMS which advertiser pays

With 100,000 - campaign costs = 20,000 GBP (hypothetical case of hitting all 100,000)

With 10% response 10,000 people respond

Assume that 5% buy from within 10,000 - so we get 500 sales

Assume cost of each 'shoe' (or whatever the campaign is selling) is 12 GBP

Hence, sales = 6,000 GBP

Against campaign costs of 20,000 GBP

That can never work? Unless you have volume!

Also, the retail price of the shoe is £12, but you'd have to factor in costs - manufacturing, postage, returns etc to end up with a margin.

The model will not work even for Starbucks and SMS since the same principles apply there.

From a marketing standpoint, Reach (critical mass) has always been important. This may be because of high fixed costs historically, which need to be amortised over high volumes. Obviously, that's not the case with a Google AdWords or AdMob - but still the equation needs Reach as I indicate above.

Thus the very factor which makes the medium attractive (targeting/personalization etc) - becomes its undoing since the numbers are 'back of the envelope' calculations and they don’t add up at lower volumes especially when you co-relate to sales/fulfillment.

Consequently, I say that critical mass is a pre-requisite to personalization and one could argue that even the Operators lack critical mass when it comes to advertising. The players who are gaining the biggest traction have critical mass or are addressing the problem. For instance, Admob, itsmy, flirtomatic and others have got critical mass by virtue of their strategy/cross operator vision. Nokia ad service is another significant player for the same reason (all Nokia devices). So is Android potentially (unites the stack) and the iPhone (combines the Web and the Mobile Web)

However, no matter how you look at this - I believe that critical mass must come first and only then is personalization relevant

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April 6, 2008

Personalization is not a substitute for critical mass - from Zagme to Blyk

This may well be one of my contrarian viewpoints .. Similar to Mobile Youth is a myth .. But here goes ..

Personalization is a big word in our industry .. If you want to really understand the taxonomy of personalization in detail, then an excellent description of context / personalization is provided by one of the industry’s most respected techies .. C Enrique Ortiz. If you have not read his white paper on context, well worth a read here white paper on mobile context/ personalization

It is a (mobile) marketer’s dream/holy grail to be able to provide personalized content over the phone. To do this, we need a detailed understanding of context and the ability to personalize content based on the context ..

However, although personalization is important, it is not the traditional (i.e. non mobile) marketer’s first objective. The conventional wisdom says that the first goal of marketing is to reach critical mass(eyeballs) and only then is personalization relevant

Let’s take a step back.

From the earliest days of the mobile data industry, we have been able to personalise content.

Even that dreaded application ‘sending a text message when you pass close to a coffee shop giving 10% off your next cup of coffee’ – has always been technically possible. As early as 2002, Operators in the UK(like O2 – then called BT cellnet) were able to provide location APIs.

However, it has always been at the expense of critical mass.

And therein lies the problem

It seems that we, as an industry, take the (wishful thinking )viewpoint that because we don’t have critical mass yet .. we can somehow charge a premium for a smaller subset of the audience provided we can personalise the message to them

In my view, that’s wishful thinking – because at that point – the application is no longer cost effective and it has violated the first principle of marketing (critical mass) with the forlorn hope that it may compensate for that violation by a providing a more personalised message.

The trick is not only to manage context .. but to do so with critical mass

Managing context alone is easy! It can be done given the technology and the budget

Ironically, the biggest successes of the industry have cracked that problem by addressing critical mass first(admob, itsmy and others) and then adding personalization to that mix(not the other way round)

Some others understand this as well. Google with Android, the iPhone, Nokia with its Internet strategy among others are all aiming to get critical mass by spanning the Web and the Mobile Web and / or unifying the stack

The problem is as old as the time I have been involved in the industry .. starting with Zagme back in 2000(Now closed down, so no site exists). The Zagme model was highly personalised .. (In a nutshell – sending personalised SMS messages to kids in shopping malls) but not scaleable (because acquiring more customers meant signing up shopping malls .. a process that does not scale).

Fast forward 10 years and we have Blyk .. we all watch it with great interest and indeed it is too early to say where it will all go .. but the perennial questions still remain as raised in Blyk’s math still does not add up . On a personal note ofcouse, I want Blyk to succeed but wearing an analyst hat on – I say that the jury is still out

Having said that, there are signs that we are beginning to change .. and it’s a good thing. While I don’t know enough yet re this initiative, payforit is a step in the right direction.

Why are we obsessed with getting personalization right at the cost of critical mass?

As an engineer working on a PhD, I am not the best people to ask this question .. however .. maybe marketing as a profession has been tarred (with some justification!) with SPAM and other related ills. Maybe marketers dream of being ‘good’ – doing the right thing, engaging with the audience, entertaining the audience, sending the right messages which the audience will like to receive etc etc ..

All this is well and good ..

But can we achieve personalization at the expense of critical mass? I don’t think so!

Also See Critical mass (reach) is a prerequisite to personalization

Posted by ajit at 10:47 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

April 3, 2008

Forumoxford future technologies conference Fri 18 April 2008

Hello all
I co-chair this event every year and like last year, this year should be great as well.

The ForumOxford conference is on Friday 18 April 2008. Cost to attend is £195 (approx €245 / $380), which includes lunch, refreshments and post-conference drinks.

Conference details are at Forumoxford future technologies conference

Secure online payment and registration at - Forumoxford future technologies conference payment and registration

Confirmed speakers (running order to be announced):

* Mark Selby - Nokia
* Social Marketing Intelligence, the Black Gold of the 21st Century - Alan Moore, Xtract
* Mobile Social Networking - Antonio Vince Stabyl, CEO, ItsMY
* Youth and Mobile and Music and TV - Luciana Pavan, MTV
* iPhone Applications - William Volk, CEO, MyNuMo
* User-generated Mobile Advertising - Jonathan MacDonald, Blyk
* Mobile Initiated Financial Services in the Developing World - Simon Cavill, Director, Mi-Pay Ltd
* How to Integrate Facebook with IMS - Niklas Blum, Fraunhofer FOKUS
* Browser Extensions (DOM extensions) and Accessing Device APIs - Ajit Jaokar, OpenAjax Alliance and David Pollington, Vodafone
* Delivering a Global Mobile Service - Cameron Doherty, CEO, Mobile Concierge
* Dawn of a New Mobility - Casual Computing: Thoughts on the Future of Mobiles, Service and Their Adoption - Christian Lindholm, Fjord
* An Example of Mobile Search in Poland, the Implementation of Google Search Appliance on Plus.pl - Krzysztof Proczka, Brand Manager, Polkomtel

Hope to see you in Oxford on 18 April.

Regards

Peter Holland, Technology Programme, University of Oxford

Conference sponors:

Posted by ajit at 7:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 2, 2008

Mashup Event : Mobile

Tony Fish is running the next mashup event on mobile

Location: CBI Conference Center, Centre Point, 103 New Oxford Street, London WC1A 1DU

The focus of the next mashup* Event will be "Mobile" and the questions we'll be asking is: "is there an opportunity to enter into the value chain?" As Vodafone, O2, Orange, 3 and T-Mobile fight each other for customers; whilst positioning against Nokia, Samsung, LG and Motorola for brand and mind share and defending a rear guard action against Yahoo, Google and Microsoft is there eye sufficiently diverted that would allow new entrants into a closed shop value chain, if so where are the opportunities and what could be a good approach.

This will not be a platform for the big guns to tell you what you can read in the main stream tech media the focus and speakers will be respected thought leaders who are willing to stand up and be counted, if not a little controversial!

please register at http://www.mashupevent.com

There is a charge of £35.

Speakers
Patrick Parodi - Chairman, Mobile Entertainment Forum MEF
Nick Allott - CTO, OMTP
Leif Fågelstedt COO BLYK
David Whitewood - Co-founder, trutap
Matt Lewis - MD, ArcChart
Tony Fish - Author of "mobile web 2.0"

Demos from

Refresh Mobile

GoldMobileInnovation

MoMail

15SecondTV

Concilio Networks

The Hatchery

TreasuremyText

Second Emotion

Posted by ajit at 9:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack