August 4, 2008
Carnival of the Mobilists #135: Olympics of the Mobilists !
Great title!
Carnival of the Mobilists #135: Olympics of the Mobilists !
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May 9, 2008
Classic Ray Charles - Hit the road Jack ..
Watched this song more times than I can remember. Enjoy!
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May 1, 2008
blogged.com rates OpenGardens blog 8/10.
I had an email from Amy at blogged saying that they rated OpenGardens blog 8/10.
Often this is a good way to get attention - so I was a bit sceptical at first. Still I had a look at blogged.com
And I liked it ..
Not because they rate me 8/10 :) .. and techcrunch has a mixed review(but some comments are positive) ..
But there is a more subtle reason ..
And at first I struggled to find it .. and the best way I can express it is by saying that it does one thing very well.
A good list of blogs is indeed valuable .. and although it exists in other places on the web(technorati and mybloglog for example) .. I like the simplicity and scope of this site along with a singular focus.
Certainly a valuable resource ..
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March 24, 2008
A landmark: The opengardens blog completes more than 800 posts in less than 3 years ..
Hello all
We have reached a bit of a landmark .. The OpenGardens blog now has more than 800 posts - and considering some of my posts are extensive(more articles than blogs), there is a lot of content here!
Thanks for all your support over the years - both online and offline where I have met various readers of OpenGardens blogs at conferences but also at airport lounges and hotel lobbies etc when people have stopped me to thank me / discuss this blog !
I know large companies who read it regularly and distribute some blogs internally and many small startups - both Web and Mobile - who also follow it
It all started with this post - Beatles to BT? would it work? way back on 26th May 2005 when I asked ..
Would 'Beatles to BT' work? i.e. If the Beatles had been starting out - would they have approached BT to sell their music? What would happen if they did? Would there be a Beatles - in the first place?
This set the tone for the whole blog - a balanced, human, personal and often extremely detailed view of the Mobile data industry with an emphasis on Open Gardens(opposite of walled gardens). It is an 'outsider's view' i.e. with a bias towards the Web and as the Web and the Mobile Web converge - with companies like Nokia, Opera, Google and Apple leading the way - there are many more interesting things to cover!
Along the way, various personal preferences like Tom and Jerry, ZZ Top, Tintin, Asterix, Snoopy and Pink Floyd have kept it interesting as have my personal ethos about Individualism, human rights, the free market economy and the belief that technology will enrich the lives of people and overcome poverty
Thanks for your support again!
Please subscribe to the OpenGardens blog at OpenGardens
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January 1, 2008
Happy New Year !
Happy New Year!
Thanks for all your support over the years!
kind rgds
Ajit
Image source: http://www.skinbase.org/files/archive/shots/271/Happy_New_Year_by_clwoods.jpg
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November 28, 2007
Leopard, spots change – Verizon ..
Verizon has opened up! What do we say? At this rate, my blog ‘OpenGardens’ will become redundant
:)
But seriously .. Like Om Malik, I am sceptical a bit .. But .. I am also an optimist ..
This is clearly a significant move ..
However, it should be looked at in context of the broader market .. iPhone, Google, Android, 700 Mhz auction etc etc ..
The walled gardens model is truly dead and a mixture of regulatory, competitive and customer led changes are the winners here ..
In many ways, such moves should be encouraged – like I blogged about Three’s about turn ..(Three was one of the closest operators in Europe at one time and now goes to the other end of the spectrum)
The bottom line is: Operators have little choice .. The customers are driving this change and history has always dictated this change(for instance in the case of AOL)
The real question we have to ask is: Is the phone a creation device(Web 2.0/Mobile Web 2.0) or is it a consumption device? That’s the difference between OpenGardens and Walled Gardens ..
As we go into an era of creation, openness is inevitable
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November 25, 2007
Tony Fish rated Top 10 for science and innovation by the Observer ..
The observer rates Tony Fish Top 10 for science and innovation / heading for the top
The entry reads as below
Congarts Tony for this!
Tony Fish, author and founder, AMF Ventures, London Fish is involved in technology, media and telecoms industries, building hi-tech companies since 1994. He is the founder of AMF Ventures, a strategic consultancy focused on the move to 2.0. He sits as a non-executive director at Chronos Technology, Hartwood, dotnet and C2G, chairman at Dot Mobile, and partner at MashUp Events LLP, a formal gathering of professionals who meet to discuss the digital world. Mobile Web 2.0, Fish's second book, focuses on the changing relationships between mobile, TV, web and print, and the uniqueness of mobile metadata.
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October 15, 2007
Today's internet communities are a fad, social networks will dominate
Jouko Ahvenainen of xtract has this fantastic post at forumoxford
The basic premise is: Communities / Social networks as we know them today are a fad - However social networks (as a philosophy) will dominate
Jouko's post below ..
>>>>
There has been an active discussion whether social communities are a fad. I also asked here a couple of weeks ago, what is the relationship of real social networks and communities people create around them in the Internet. Finally I have come to some conclusions in my thinking.
Here is my prediction: Internet communities as we know them today are a fad, but social networks and communities will be a fundamental part of all Internet and mobile services and marketing.
I just flew from London to San Francisco and had time to read some articles and really think this question. Communities like Facebook and MySpace are now very popular, but I see they are only the first step and still quite artificial social networking between people. Advertisers have seen the value already today. Individual community services comes and disappears but the phenomenon itself will live. And we have already seen that people are not always loyal to a community service.
But this is only a starting point. People have many other services they use daily in the Internet. They live with their mobiles 24/7. It cannot be so that your social activities and at the same time community marketing intelligence is limited only to certain web sites. Social network awareness will be a fundamental part of everything people develop for the Internet and mobile in near future. And community marketing intelligence will live inside all services and platforms in the future to offer better usability and more relevant and effective advertising.
This is also why mobile data is so powerful if we want to know the real social networks for advertising and better usability. Today it is operators' data to analyze social networks as Xtract already does but in the future it will be much more data from handset and also from Internet and Mobile Internet usage. And those who own the data and powerful tools to find relevant out from the data will be the big winners.
<<<
I agree .. and I said once at a presentation ..
Content may be king - but metadata is King Kong! i.e. he who owns the metadata about the customer will be the real winner. Operators have potentially a strong case here - definately. Assuming they use the right tools and have the right mindset
Jonathan Marks added ..
I asked the CEO of Flickr if she could guarantee me access to my own photos in 2012. In fact she couldn't. Since I keep a copy of what I upload to Flickr, if I lost access to my photos it wouldn't matter so much. But all the effort put into labelling material, building sensible collections, tagging etc which builds value to a collection, I see no guarantee that I would be able to download that at any time in the future. My time, my effort, but apparently not my data.
and as I said in the last blog .. Google's answer to facebook .. I totally agree with Dave ..
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September 23, 2007
Standardization across handsets, OMTP, 2D barcodes, Micro USB
Here is a practical way for operators to jump start the mobile web ..
I believe that there could be a role for bodies like OMTP
It came from a suggestion from Daniel Rosen (Head of AKQA Mobile)’s presentation’s at the Mobile Web 2.0 events(Daniel is a good friend whose views I like and respect)
Daniels’ suggestion was in a nutshell; Operators should standardise across 2d barcodes (also called QR codes)
I fully agree with this!
2d barcodes are ubiquitous and they are a key driver to the mobile web uptake because they can be in magazines and other publications and can be linked directly to a mobile web site
Others like Tomi Ahnonen also rave on about QR codes
This could be a role for an organization like OMTP which could undertake standardization which helps jump start the industry.
Recently, OMTP took the same role with standardisation on micro-USB - a positive step in my view
This form of cross synergy which help developers/customers is most welcome and indicate a role which a cross industry body can play
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September 17, 2007
kudos to the police blogger!
Well done Stuart Davidson . We would much rather trust a blogger than politicians or mainstream media .. Link to Policeman's blog
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September 12, 2007
OpenGardens network - launches next week ..
We continue to make good progress to the OpenGardens network
We will launch the OpenGardens network next week
The simple principle of focussing on bloggers who are insightful - but infrequent (especially bloggers who work in corporate blogs but have personal blogs ) gets us some very smart people!.
We are happy to work with such insightful thinkers like Martin Duval (who works for Orange) , Stephen Johnston (who works for Nokia), Daniel Appelquist(Vodafone) , C Enrique Ortiz , Simeon Simeonov(Polaris ventures), Chetan Sharma , Rakesh Radhakrishnan(Sun Microsystems) , Luke Razzell , Sergey Slovetskiy (Ericsson) and many others
I am looking for more insightful bloggers especially in the Web 2.0, Social networking and the enterprise space. Any recommendations, welcome
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August 15, 2007
Happy 60th birthday India ..
Happy 60th birthday India!
Interesting to see so much coverage - including from the official Google blog ..
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May 21, 2007
social computing v.s. multi nationals
My friend Duane Nickull Senior Technology Evangelist, Adobe Systems posted this on his blog
Duane says:
It occurred to me a natural aspect of social computing is rising up against multi nationals. After getting ripped off by a company named Rheem, I felt compelled to post this on my blog:
His blog entry is HERE
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May 13, 2007
Håkon Wium Lie CTO of Opera software - Significance of Widgets - Web and Mobile
I am reposting this podcast because I am now looking at Widgets very strategically. We recently did this podcast with Opera (Håkon Wium Lie ) and we are also doing more with Nokia(see following post)
Expect a lot more talk of Widgets/books on Widgets etc etc
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April 24, 2007
Lanetro Zed symposium and Peter Cochrane ..
Last Friday, I spoke at the Zed symposium organized by Lanetro Zed
at Sotogrande in Spain
Besides me, the other speaker in the morning was Professor Peter Cochrane. Peter is a legend in the industry and it was great to meet him for the first time. Also, we discovered that our presentations had remarkably similar themes and messages although independently created – which was very flattering to know
I learnt a lot in the day. The focus of my talk was on Web 2.0, Mobile Web 2.0 and User generated content.
Peter Cochrane talked about the future – but some of what he talked of – was reflected in my talk as well (which pertained to the present). I was followed by Mr Javier Perez (La Netro Zed cofounder) – who talked about the implementation (i.e. how Zed was incorporating these ideas into their product set). And finally, in the afternoon, various Operators and key industry players talked about how they are actually changing (for instance flat rate seems to be coming in many regions).
Thus, I was left with the thought that much of the future is here and now and we have many new and interesting services to look forward to
Many thanks to Ana, Maria and Eduardo for the flawless organization and to Mr Perez and Zed for inviting me over. The lovely Ana especially seemed to defy the laws of physics by being in more than one place at once!
I was especially impressed by Peter’s talk. It was great to meet Peter and his charming wife Jane. Peter was head of Research and CTO at BT and Peter's PhD was pivotal in BT deciding to go all-digital and all-optical in the 1970's
There are many things I could pick up – even with casual conversation – for instance: at lunch – someone asked ‘What would be Peter’s advice to Telcos? – (considering he said in his talk that very few would survive in the next few years in their current form)
I think his answer was: As the mobile network mirrors the Internet (and by extension – value shifts to the edge as opposed to the core), the Operator can survive only by leveraging what is in the core (and ONLY in the core). This means (in my view) – Identity, Payment, Location, Customer profiles.
Its little things like that ..
In the presentation itself, there were many cool things for instance 405 the movie - which is the most viewed movie ever I believe.
However, the historical perspective of industries in transformation was even more interesting for me. For example: Supermarkets went through a dropping profit margins (22%, 16%, 8% and ultimately to as low as 2%). Operators may also go through the same – hence the consolidation and the need to rethink the business model.
I look forward to meeting Peter again soon ..
I will also be following Zed more closely. Much of their new strategy is very consistent with Mobile Web 2.0 - and it is great to see content players evolve in the new world of User Generated Content
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April 5, 2007
McKinsey Global Survey: Tim O Reilly must be having the last laugh ..
The McKinsey quarterly had a recent article on How businesses are using Web 2.0: A McKinsey Global Survey.
Requires a free registration – but well worth a read.
I am a paid subscriber to the McKinsey service and my yardstick is: when McKinsey write about it – it’s mainstream.
Considering how much flak Tim O Reilly received when he put forward the seven principles of Web 2.0, I guess Tim must be having the last laugh.
The adoption of Web 2.0 by corporates is even more interesting. I already follow Dion’s work on Web 2.0 and Enterprise and am helping Hinchcliffe and co in their expansion of Web 2.0 University to London
So, have a look at the McKinsey report and also these three other blogs on the same theme from Dion :
The rise of the DIY phenomenon
The challenges of moving the Web-based world into the enterprise
Emerging new ideas for SOA architects
I am very much looking forward to meeting Tim when I am speaking at the O Reilly Web 2.0 expo
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April 4, 2007
Dion Hinchcliffe launches the Web20University ..
Dion Hinchcliffe is a Web 2.0 pioneer and is also a good friend. Dion is totally committed to the ethos of Web 2.0 and in partnership with O'Reilly, the firm that introduced Web 2.0 to the industry, Hinchcliffe and co have launched the Web20University. Knowing Dion and the depth of his thinking, I have no hesitation at all in recommending the courses being held in various parts of the USA(Please see their web site for details)
Hinchcliffe and co are a platinum sponsor at the web20 expo and you can meet Dion and co there.
Some excepts from their official email about their bootcamps are as below
Designed for business executives and technical leaders alike, these
intensive one-day courses help you understand the potent set of new
business models and technologies known as Web 2.0. Whether you're with an
established Fortune 500 firm, an Internet startup, or a government
agency, you'll learn the actionable strategies, design patterns, and best
practices needed to rapidly bridge your organization's products and
services into the new online world of Web 2.0.
The meteoric rise and industry dominance of Internet sites like YouTube,
MySpace, and Google shows just how quickly traditional business models
and companies -- from broadcasting to publishing to financial services --
are being eclipsed by fundamentally new Web 2.0 approaches that harness
collective intelligence, leverage The Long Tail, and maintain control
over hard-to-recreate data, to name just three.
Web 2.0 has clearly captured the world's imagination as evidenced
by appearances on the cover of Time, Newsweek, and on major TV news
shows. Hundreds of new Web 2.0 companies have been formed in the last
year alone. More importantly, business leaders are increasingly hearing
this call to action. Major corporations including American Express, AOL,
GM and XM Radio are now actively embracing Web 2.0 concepts.
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An unexpected walled garden - Patientline : Hospital phone charges up 160%
From the BBC article below.
This is sad because we, who understand technology, know that voice charges are leaning to zero! Thus, increase voice rates by 160% for patients in hospitals - is not good. In fact, I think voice calls should be free(no problem charging for movies etc). Maybe it is time to look at mobile phones in hospitals(as we are reconsidering mobile phones on aircrafts).
From the BBC below >>>>
Hospital phone charges up 160%
Patientline also provides bedside TV, radio and internet
A firm that provides phone services at thousands of NHS hospital bedsides is to increase the cost of calls by 160%.
Previously, calls made by NHS patients through Patientline phones cost 10p per minute, but that will now rise to 26p.
Patientline, which is a private company, told the BBC it had invested £160m in the system and needed to recoup its costs and make a profit.
In 2005, the firm was investigated by regulators over its charges, but was cleared of any wrongdoing.
Patientline also provides television screens and radio and internet services at hospital bedsides.
It said that while call charges would increase, the cost of the complete bedside "package" would fall from £3.50 a day to £2.90.
Calls to patients from outside the hospital cost 39p per minute off-peak and 49p a minute at peak times.
'Luxury service'
Patientline systems are installed at more than 75,000 hospital bedsides.
BBC Breakfast's Graham Satchell said the government had always maintained that these services were a luxury and should not come at a cost to the taxpayer or the NHS.
And he said Patientline had admitted it was £80m in debt and currently had enough money left to only operate for the next 12 months.
The Patients Association says patients often have no choice but to use Patientline because many hospitals no longer have public pay phones.
It added that contact with relatives can have a significant impact on a patient's wellbeing.
Mobiles ban
Andrew Stronach, from Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, said he had written to Patientline to formally object to the price rise and demand a meeting.
"They have agreed a stay of execution for two weeks and as a result they will not be putting up the charges here from today."
Telecoms regulator Ofcom investigated Patientline two years ago after complaints that charges were too high.
In the past, many hospitals have operated bans on or restricted the use mobile phones within their buildings, meaning patients often had to use other phone services.
But last month, Health Minister Andy Burnham said he saw "no reason" why they could not be used within hospitals.
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February 18, 2007
Happy Chinese New Year to our readers ..
Happy Chinese New Year to our readers !!
Image source: BBC
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January 2, 2007
Seeking guest bloggers for the OpenGardens blog ..
Hello all
In 2007, I have some big plans for my blog.
Much to my surprise last year, it has become a runaway success
Alexa ratings of 67,000 odd and growing, syndicated on the W3C, Top 20 fierce wireless blogs, Top 20 mobile blogs by technorati links etc etc ..
It also has some industry experts like Simeon(general partner of Polaris ventures), Dr Paddy Byers and Chetan sharma blogging on it.
This year, I am looking for more bloggers who want to contribute occasional articles. This means, your article / post would have your photo against it and would be edited by me(and of course authored by you)
You can get a general ethos of the blog by looking at the blog (essentially web 2.0, mobile web 2.0, Open Gardens etc).
You can talk about your own expertise/company.
For instance, see this blog -
Yes, we are talking about a specific company - but also its of general interest to peopleand its unique and it fits with the broad ethos of the blog.
Ideally, I would like you to contribute a series (for instance a set of five posts on a theme) etc.
I can work with you to edit etc.
If you are interested, please email me at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com giving me an outline what you want to write etc etc
kind rgds
Ajit
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September 23, 2006
Apple bans the use of 'podcasting' ?
How interesting!
I don't cover Apple a lot because its a walled garden.
Now, it seems that Apple is trying to trademark the term podcasting
Maybe Mr Ahonen and Mr Moore were right after all .. Tomi / Alan / Apple story
At least Tim O Reilly made an honest mistake in my view and the circumstances were much more complex .. lets see how the Apple story pans out ..
The timing could'nt been worse for Apple .. both mobile ***casting and zune?casting are here ..
Once again, it seems like they did with the PC world, Apple is pioneering a whole industry segment but failing to execute when that segment crosses the chasm
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September 4, 2006
Opengardens blog is amongst the top 10 mobile blogs according to Technorati ...
What a pleasant surprise! After the last post which made me sad, it's a bit of good news to know about the list of top mobile blogs worldwide as per Technorati compiled by Rudy De Waale. OpenGardens blog is amongst the top 10 mobile blogs worldwide .. and that comes as a bit of a surprise to me as well!
Many thanks for all your support. Thanks to Rudy for tracking this on Technorati and for Mr Ahonen for pointing this out to me! ..
I also want to thank our two new contributors Dr Paddy Byers and Chetan Sharma for their brilliant contribution ..
Its great to see so many friends make the top 10. Congrats to all and especially to Howard and Co(Smart Mobs), Emily(textually), Oliver Starr(Mobile crunch), Russell and Carlo(Mobhappy) and Rafe(All about symbian) who I personally know.
Once again .. thanks for making this a great place!
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August 7, 2006
Introducing our second contributor: Dr Paddy Byers
Following the introduction of Chetan Sharma yesterday, I am pleased to introduce Dr Paddy Byers.
Dr Paddy Byers is the CTO for Tao Group, creator of intent, a virtualisation technology used for delivering multimedia content portably to mobile phones and other consumer devices. Paddy has 13 years mobile and embedded software development experience and prior to joining Tao was an independent consultant working in computer security and safety-critical systems. Paddy holds a degree in Mathematics from Cambridge and a PhD in Theoretical Computer Science.
Paddy’s interests cover all technical means used to deliver services to mobile devices, and the role that technology might have in supporting the value chain. Specific interests include the possibilities offered by web2 technologies such as ajax; decentralisation of service creation; how to support communities of subscribers with widely diverse requirements; and technology “post-modernism” generally.
The views expressed here are personal and not necessarily those of either his employer or any customer or partner.
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August 6, 2006
Introducing our first contributing blogger: Chetan Sharma
As per my previous blog, Would you like to blog at OpenGardens, I am pleased to introduce Chetan Sharma as our first contributing blogger to the OpenGardens blog
Chetan is a recognized industry expert in strategy and implementation of wireless data and pervasive computing solutions. He has a strong background in developing and launching technologies, products, and solutions for the wireless Industry, including extensive experience in managing and delivering all phases of the product development cycle. His areas of focus are product strategy, patent and IP strategy, and business and technology strategy.
Executives from leading wireless companies around the world seek his accurate predictions, independent insights, and actionable recommendations. He has served as an advisor to senior executive management of several Fortune 100 companies in the wireless space. Some of his clients include NTT DoCoMo, Disney, KTF, Reuters, Sprint Nextel, AT&T Wireless, Cincinnati Bell, Qualcomm, Reliance Infocomm, SAP, Merrill Lynch, American Express, Infospace, BEA, and HP. Chetan is author or co-author of 3 books and dozens of articles and reports on the wireless industry. More information at his site Chetan Sharma
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would you like to blog at OpenGardens?
As many of you know, this blog has become widely read in the last few months, especially within the wider web community, because of my membership of the web 20 workgroup (which in effect resyndicates my blog globally) in addition to the links from the Mobile/Telecoms industry.
In addition, I am now running the mobile web 2.0 spotlight at sys-con
(Sys-con are a US based publisher of technical magazines and web content and one of the largest technical event organisers in the US). Thus, the opengardens blog would get even more publicity through my synergies with the sys-con blog.
As many bloggers are now doing, I am looking to open up the OpenGardens blog to a few good contributors.
Thus, I am now looking for either guest(one off) or contributing (ongoing) bloggers on the OpenGardens blog.
This would suit someone who does not want to blog regularly but still wants to get the benefits of blogging - especially by association with a well known blog which is widely syndicated. If you want to be a contributing editor, then I can have your name on the front page of the blog. If you want to be a guest contributor(one off) then that means you simply let me know a post you want to add.
Obviously, all this is good for your brand etc. Plus, you would save the trouble of starting and popularising a blog from scratch.(with one blog created every second, blogosphere doubles every five months , making it all the more difficult to set up a new blog from scratch and make it popular )
Also, there are two other advantages
a) The blog will get additional exposure due to my work with sys-con and
b) The OpenGardens blog is one of the few blogs that spans both the Web and the Mobile domians. Long term, I believe that the Web is the where the real action is!
The overall theme of the blog is web 2.0, wireless/mobile, open networks and mobile web 2.0. The quality must be consistent with the existing blogs/articles.
I will help with the editing.
Ethos and principles
My vision behind the OpenGardens blog has been :
a) The blog is about the Mobile data industry and Digital convergence - what I call 'Mobile web 2.0'
b) Analysis is more important than 'story'/controversy. I don't believe that bloggers are true journalists. The blog does not have to be about the latest 'story' but it's more about independent 'analysis'/viewpoint
c) It is broadly about opening up the networks, growing digital usage and digital businesses i.e. we don't advocate closed networks, broadcast media etc
d) It is about disruptive digital technologies
I shall introduce two contributors this week : Chetan Sharma and Dr Patrick Byers
So, watch this space!
Pls let me know at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com if this is of interest
kind rgds
Ajit
see my new book mobileweb2.0
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August 4, 2006
futuretext is accepted as a full member of the Independent publisher's guild ..
I am happy to announce that futuretext is now accepted as a full member of the Independent Publisher's Guild. Membership of the IPG gives us recognition in the publishing industry (for instance, you need to have published a few titles before the industry accepts you as a publisher). This means, it’s easier for book stores to accept Futuretext books from authors. I thank all our authors and partners for making this happen!
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June 10, 2006
A sad day for the Internet ..
As per savetheinternet
Last night’s House vote against an amendment that would make Net Neutrality enforceable is the result of swarming lobbyists and a multi-million-dollar media campaign by telephone companies that want Congress to hand them control of the Internet.
The fight now moves to the Senate, where there is stronger bi-partisan support for a bill — put forth by Senators Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) and Byron Dorgan (D-North Dakota) — that would protect our Internet freedom from AT&T, Verizon and BellSouth.
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March 19, 2006
How mobile phones are transforming societies
Another interesting article from the BBC about Africa (Nigeria) about how mobile phones are transforming society
I find this bit interesting
Telephone entrepreneurs
In any big town you just have to look around and there will be a boy within hailing distance ready to sell you a top-up card.
Girls are less likely to be scampering about in traffic jams with strings of cards. But give them a picnic table, a red, yellow or green umbrella, and a "make your calls here" sign, and they are set up in the telecommunications business.
The mobile phone companies have done more to tackle youth unemployment than any government project.
Being able to make phone calls has transformed working life in Nigeria.
I blogged about this phenomenon a while ago with - The mobile Internet will do more for Africa than live 8!
An extension of this level of communication is - news can no longer be controlled by governments and the Philippines government knows this only too well!
The interesting bit is - I observed the same phenomenon with Cable TV more than twelve years ago when I last lived in India. Once people get connected, their aspirations rise, they become more informed, corrupt politicians can't cheat them, governments can’t censor information easily
This is just the beginning ..
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March 9, 2006
The resurgence of browsing applications
Not sure if I blogged about this before.
I have been speaking of a resurgance of browsing applications led by Ajax. Its nice to see this link from Russell Beattie which talks of the resurgance of browsing in general(independent of Ajax). And it seems Open Gardens as well!
he says:
> The key takeaway for me was that browsing is
> the number one (by far) mobile application
> that uses data, and interestingly, carrier
> decks only account for 50% of the traffic. >
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March 6, 2006
Mobile Strategies - Understanding Wireless Business Models, MVNOs and the growth of Mobile Content
I am happy to announce that Tom Weiss will be publishing his book on Mobile Strategies with futuretext. The book will be called 'Mobile Strategies - Understanding Wireless Business Models, MVNOs and the growth of Mobile Content'
Tom's knowledge of the mobile content business is par excellence and his talk at the OpenGardens event last year was a huge hit.
The book will be available on March 30 2006 and we have a formal launch event for the book at Waterstones Piccadilly (Europe's largest bookstore) on April 11. If you are interested in the book or the event, please email us at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com
More about the book
Mobile Strategies explains the different business models and strategies available for businesses looking to enter the mobile sector. Starting off with a historical overview of the telecommunications business, the book explains how mobile has developed into the business it is today, what models have made money, and which ones haven’t.
With a straightforward, practical style, the book gives an advice on
• Starting an MVNO
• Using SMS to build revenues
• Selling handset ring-tones, wallpapers, and games
• The future of mobile media, including Mobile Music and TV
• Services for 3G and next generation networks
• Mobile marketing, advertising, and customer interactivity
• Convergence and Triple Play
In each area, clear guidance is provided on what customers are looking for, the possibilities and limitations of the technology, effective go-to-market strategies, business models, costs, risks, and an overview of the operational requirements.
All models are illustrated with case studies from companies including Virgin, NTT DoCoMo, Disney, Vodafone, Apple, ITV, Blackberry, Nextel, and Skype.
The book would appeal to anyone deciding whether their business should enter the Mobile sector, those currently operating in the sector, MBA students, and aspiring managers within the industry
About Tom
Tom Weiss was Vice President Key Service Introductions at T-Mobile until August 2005, and was responsible for the launch of T-Mobile premium services across Europe, including T-Mobile EURO2004 campaign.
Prior to T-Mobile, Tom was a key figure in the development of the Content Management industry and developed online strategies for a number of UK organisations. He is lives in London with his wife Jane. Mobile Strategies is his first book.
Posted by ajit at 1:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
February 22, 2006
Open systems, Information technology and blossoming (or not) of Civilizations.
On holiday, I met VC Bothra who started off this discussion in context of India and the Gutenberg press. Having an interest in history and archaeology - I have enhanced it with examples of other civilizations and the impact of the global spread of the Internet and Open systems
There are two points I am making here
a) Information technology gives cultures and civilizations a 'once in a lifetime' chance to leapfrog / totally transform themselves
However, it's not enough merely to create a new 'information innovation(a language, a printing press etc)' - it's necessary to remove barriers so that it can spread fast, create new nodes and enrich itself. Leading to the second point
and secondly.
b) 'Closed' civilizations and knowledge centres do not grow. In fact, they shrink and die
Information technology and the transformation of cultures
The best example of this is the Gutenberg press - which created a whole new competitive advantage for the Europe.
India, today, is another example where the IT revolution has led it to effectively 'skip' the industrial / infrastructure changes. In other words, as countries like Singapore, South Korea and Japan developed after world war two, there was first a corresponding increase in industrial output and infrastructure development. In contrast, India still has a long way to go in infrastructure - BUT has effectively levelled the gap using information technology
Another example is China. The invention of paper in ancient China - led to the development of a rich civilization. In contrast - note that the current Chinese development is based on industrial production and not information technology
I have long believed that Africa will be a key beneficiary of the mobile revolution (see The mobile internet will do more for Africa than Live 8 !) i.e. the lives of ordinary citizens in Africa will be transformed by the rise of the mobile internet
Now, let’s come to the second part
'Closed' civilizations and knowledge centres do not grow. In fact, they shrink and die
The Sumerians invented one of the first languages as we know it. As per the link above Sumerian, the oldest known written language in human history, was spoken in Mesopotamia (modern Iraq and peripheral regions) throughout the third millennium BC and survived as an esoteric written language until the death of the cuneiform tradition around the time of Christ.
It was the first but it was 'elite' i.e. for aristocracy, esoteric (like Greek and Latin today) and different to almost all the then contemporary languages (like Hebrew).
The result is - inspite of being the first - it's an extinct language today
So, what does that tell us today?
Information technology is enabling pockets of cultures to leapfrog decades of underdevelopment. This development is taking place primarily due to 'links between nodes' i.e. easier communication between people which enables creation and development of the whole body of people.
This phenomenon is being played out at local levels (like India) but also at the global level (the Internet)
In contrast, societies which will not interact or which will choose to erect barriers will shrink (like the Sumerian language)
Finally, I will end this article with another insight for us to ponder about.
Japan and South Korea excel in industrial production and they have been largely successful in dominating western companies in terms of physical goods
BUT .. I believe that the same will not happen with respect to Information technology. Essentially, there are too many barriers to entry for western countries to 'sell' to Japan and Korea(and also China). These are useful to keep competition out BUT are also succeeding in stifling the exports of Japanese and Korean information technology products (i.e. those not based on physical hardware). The only way out is to 'export' a hardware/a standard FIRST (think betamax, VHS etc). This, in my view, is a no win situation i.e. the nations being 'exported to' are not likely to adopt a proprietary standard and give up competitive advantage in the current climate
In the information technology game, the winner is not the one with the best (or earliest) breakthrough(like the Sumerians) - but rather the one with the greatest number of 'links' i.e. an open system
In conclusion ..
History is a wonderful teacher.
There is much we can learn from the Sumerians(in English!)
Image source: wikipedia
Posted by ajit at 8:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
February 21, 2006
Good blog about the mobile data industry in India ,,
I met Veer Chand Bothra when I was on holiday in India. Veer runs a good blog about the mobile data industry in India. The link is mobilepundit
Posted by ajit at 7:21 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
January 21, 2006
the carnival is back after a break ..
See it at Judy Breck's blog HERE
I would also recommend Judy's book which I am currently reading
Posted by ajit at 9:15 PM | Comments (0)
January 10, 2006
supervillanos - the first mobile only soap opera ..
In the previous blog entry, I mentioned the FT article on mobile video. There is an interesting side article by Leslie Crawford .. about a spanish soap opera called 'Supervillanos' which may well be the first soap to come to the small screen.
Drawing from this article and my own insights, this blog gives an outline of the lessons we can learn from the first soap opera
Here is what I could discern
a) Supervillanos is created exclusively for mobile. Its not an adaptation of an existing screen serial
b) In its first two weeks, the series had 350,000 downloads surpassing all expectations!
c) The series is about a family of aliens who take on a human form and it includes such characters like a sex hungry grand mother .. and I thought that the sopranos were dysfunctional!
d) Episodes are only 3 mins long. There are 40 episodes. They cost euro 60 each.
e) They also sell video games, logos, ringtones, music.
f) The article also says that at present, data accounts for 12-20 percent of most mobile operator's revenue but is expected to be 20-30 percent of their revenue
from the site globomedia
Transmission date: 2005
The first series produced for cell phone transmission in Spain. This 120 minute feature film is divided into 40 episodes, each 3 minutes long for cell phone transmission.
An intergalactic family from planet Oluk Xramtá get lost during a family vacation and are forced to make an emergency landing on Earth. As they repair their ship, they must repress their superpowers in an effort to look like normal humans and survive. Ultimately, the inconveniences they are forced to endure on Earth make their evil nature come to light.
Mankind is in danger!
Numerous interactive possibilities: downloads, on-line chats, videogames, web pages, etc. This next generation format is ideal for an organization who is looking to expand their original content reach, especially with the use of the 3G cell phone.
Posted by ajit at 10:14 PM
January 8, 2006
Interesting mobile video stats from the financial times .
Hello
Since my trip to South Korea, I have been following mobile video. Here are some interesting facts .. as per the financial times print edition(Dec 30) in an article by Andrew edgecliffe johnson and mark odell(Small screen dreams: mobile operators set their sights on the moving image)
I liked the starting comment in the article – ‘Mobile TV is like sex in the open air – jolly exciting idea – but not always practical’ says Dick Emery – chief executive of UKTV
Everyone is into mobile TV nowadays. One minute ‘mobisodes’ for ‘snacking content’ is the motivation behind deals between broadcasters like HBO and mobile operators like Vodafone
Having spent £40 billion 3G licenses – the operators are keen to recover their investment. But the market landscape has changed – with video broadcasting – now seen as the big driver for video.
But do people want to watch video/TV on their mobile devices?
In a survey of 1500 people aged 13-55 for olswang only 17% wanted to watch television content on the mobile phone but 44% said they would watch programs on their PC. 70% did not want to watch TV on their mobile phones at all!
Similar results were reported by strategy analytics where fewer than 20% of the people polled(in UK, Germany., Italy and France) expressed an interest in watching mobile video.
Inspite of this, the Global market for mobile video(including streaming and broadcast video) is estimated to be £1.56 bn pounds by next year and $12.2 billion by 2010
The revenue models also differ. UK operators like Orange charge a flat fee for video (£5). The operator ‘3’ charges a fee of £35 including all data services – not just video
Several continental operators like TIM in Italy and SFR in France charge a metered rates of euro 0.25 to euro 0.50 per minute
Rates of revenue share vary depending on the parties involved. In a SKY – Vodafone partnership, the broadcaster(SKY) would get 50% the operator would share the balance with the aggregator. Adult video services typically get a quarter of the revenue with the operator keeping half and the rest being shared with other parties like the aggregator
What I find most interesting is the possibility of ‘user generated’ video content. 3UK is launching a mobile community called SeeMeTV . People are charged 10p to see the clip of which the authors receive 1p if enough people(in this case 1000) download it
I believe that user generated content is the one to watch.
Image source: http://www.geekzone.co.nz/images/articles/video/FEscr(4).jpg
Posted by ajit at 7:14 PM
December 30, 2005
syscon media republishes my mobile web 2.0 article ..
Hello all,
I am pleased about this!
My blog on mobile web 2.0 has been republished by
syscon - one of the most respected internet group of magazines.
You can see it HERE
By the way, syscon also publish Dion Hinchcliffe's blog which gets as many as 40,000 hits and is one of the most respected web 2.0 blogs.
NOT being an expert on web 2.0(as I state in my blog early on) .. this is indeed an honour.
However, it's very nice for my views to be accepted at such high levels(i.e. the philosophy of OpenGardens - the impact of the Internet on mobility - which is very similar to the basic web 2.0 concepts as I have written)
I am happy!
Kind rgds
Ajit
Posted by ajit at 8:22 PM
December 25, 2005
Mobile web 2.0: Web 2.0 and its impact on the mobility and digital convergence (Part one of three)
Mobile web 2.0: Web 2.0 and its impact on the mobility and digital convergence (Part one of three)
By Ajit Jaokar (Ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com)
Introduction and Objectives
This is a series of three articles – the first(this one) outlining the significance of web 2.0 technologies , the second article discussing the impact of web 2.0 technologies on mobility and the final article on the impact of web 2.0 technologies on digital convergence.
If you are already familiar with web 2.0, my goal, in a nutshell (no pun intended!) is to extend Tim O Reilly’s seven principles
to mobility and digital convergence.
Thus, I will not attempt to add to the body of knowledge in terms of basic web 2.0 concepts themselves. I would rather prefer to build on some of the excellent work done on the subject from folk such as Tim O Reilly , Richard Mc Manus and others. I will use their work as a background and extrapolate the basic web 2.0 principles to mobility and digital convergence (areas which I am more familiar with).
My approach will be to ask a series of questions based on my understanding of web 2.0 and mobility. I also welcome your questions. In the two following parts of this paper, I will seek to answer them. Also, if you are a company doing some interesting work in this space, please email me on the address above.
A bit about me
I live in London (England) and am the CEO of a publishing company futuretext.
I wrote a book called OpenGardens advocating openness in the mobile data industry. I also chair Oxford university’s next generation mobile applications panel. In 2006, I am commencing a PhD on IMS (IP Multimedia Systems). If you have an interest in IMS, please contact me to keep in touch. My blog is at OpenGardensBlog
Some definitions
A few quick definitions before we start – just to be sure we have the same frame of reference.
Mobile vs. wireless: In Europe, the commonly used phrase for Telecoms data applications is ‘Mobile’. In USA, it is ‘wireless’ or ‘cellular’. In this article, ‘Wireless’ simply implies connection without wires. Mobility or ‘Mobile’ on the other hand describes a whole new class of applications which permit us to interact and transact seamlessly when the user is on the move ‘anywhere, anytime’. Hence, I use the term ‘Mobile’ independent of access technology i.e. 3G, wireless LANs, wimax, wibro, Bluetooth etc.
Mobile Internet: ‘Mobile IP data service’. It is not ‘Internet on the Mobile device’ since mobility also includes other elements such as ‘messaging’ i.e. non-browsing modes of access.
The mobile data industry: The ‘data’ i.e. non-voice side of telecoms. The telecoms operators are an important part of the mobile data industry.
Web 2.0
Within the mobile data industry, ‘openness’ is still an alien concept. I wrote a book called OpenGardens alongwith Tony Fish which advocated openness in the mobile data industry (OpenGardens is the philosophical opposite of ‘walled gardens’).
When I talk to senior telecoms people about ‘OpenGardens’ – they are still hung about ‘on portal’ or ‘off portal’. Further, most cannot see beyond the traditional ‘song and dance’ applications (ringtones/wall papers etc).
In contrast, I find web 2.0 concepts refreshingly intuitive and they formalise many things which we know and use. For example – in OpenGardens, we talked about an application called ‘Splash messaging’ also called air graffiti or spatial messaging.
Contrast this with a very different type of application called ‘splash messaging/air graffiti/spatial messaging’. In its simplest case, it’s the ability to ‘pin’ digital ‘post it notes’ at any physical point. Suppose you were at a holiday destination and you took a picture or a video of that location. You then ‘posted’ that note digitally with your comments and made it accessible to your ‘friends’. Many years later, one of your friends happened to come to that same place and as she walked to the venue, a message would pop up on her device with your notes, picture and comments.
The Splash messaging application is a ‘mashup’ of many different feeds (for example a location feed and a mapping feed) and it has other features like user created content. Its characteristics are very similar to a web 2.0 service.
So, coming back to my question, what’s web 2.0 and how does it apply to the mobile data industry?
Background
There appear to be two early origin points for web 2.0
Firstly, a business week article:
It's A Whole New Web And this time around it will be built by you
and secondly .. a conference ( web 2.0 conference created by a discussion between O'Reilly publications and MediaLive International (a technology conference company – if you want to put a label around it)
Currently, there is a lot of hype around web 2.0. But also a lot of cynicism. Predictably, the VCs are excited
Like the web 1.0 – It even has a ‘bible book’ as we had the cluetrain manifesto for web 1.0
For web 2.0 it is Design Patterns: Elements of Reusable Object-Oriented Software (Addison-Wesley Professional Computing Series) (Hardcover)
And finally .. it has an odd ‘new agey’ feeling to it .. with words like ‘collective intelligence’, feng shui and morality being bandied about in the context of web 2.0 -
Starting with Nicholas Carr’s The amorality of web 2.0
And Kevin Kelly’s we are the web
and finally .. Tim o Reilly’s response to Nicholas Carr’s article at
Some questions to think about
The mobile device has the potential to act as a significant reporter of data rather than a mere consumer of data. The Web 2.0 / mobility interplay needs more thought. Consider principle two from the list of seven principles (harnessing collective intelligence).
Functionally, we must be able to –
a) collect intelligence unique to being ‘mobile’
b) share that knowledge
c) enable others to comment on that knowledge
d) Ensure that the enhanced body of knowledge so created can be shared with the community.
This leads to more questions - What type of information can we collect when we are mobile(location, pictures(MMS)), How can it be shared?, How can it be enhanced?
Some initial questions which come to my mind:
1) If a web 2.0 service is treated as an amalgamation of data and enabling software, which data elements are unique to mobility (for example location feeds)?
2) How are these data elements captured?
3) What are the pitfalls associated with accessing(sharing) these data sources
4) Will the mobile web 2.0 be seamless as we all hope? If not, what are the options and choke points in extending web 2.0 ‘anywhere anytime’?
5) The impact of IMS. As per wikipedia
The aim of IMS is not only to provide new services but all the services, current and future, that the Internet provides. In addition, users have to be able to execute all their services when roaming as well as from their home networks. To achieve these goals, IMS uses open standard IP protocols, defined by the IETF. So, a multimedia session between 2 IMS users, between an IMS user and a user on the Internet, and between 2 users on the Internet is established using exactly the same protocol. Moreover, the interfaces for service developers are also based on IP protocols. This is why IMS truly merges the Internet with the cellular world; it uses cellular technologies to provide ubiquitous access and Internet technologies to provide appealing services.(By the way, IMS is the topic I am looking to commence my PhD in this year.)
6) How does the network effect work within the mobile data industry ?
7) How does network effect work in terms of user contributions(i.e. can small contributions created by users be shared easily across to the larger body of users) ?
8) What are the examples of harnessing collective intelligence / peer production on the mobile data industry ?
9) Contrasting the iPod/itunes models with other models of sharing data in the mobile data industry
10) Which companies are leading the way in this space ?
11) How will search be affected by ‘anywhere/anytime’ ?
12) Airwaves are not free i.e. there is a cost of transmission over the air through a telecoms network. Will that impact the wider deployment of web 2.0?
13) Impact of dual mode phones(WiFi and 3G phones)
14) IP /IMS does not mean ‘open’. Does openness matter ? If information can be accessed via a browser(and initiatives like the t-mobile web-n-walk initiative are already under way http://digital-lifestyles.info/display_page.asp?section=cm&id=2658 ) – what’s the impact of the ‘walled gardens’ ?
15) What type of data can be captured on a mobile device(music, video, images) and how can it be enhanced(tagged, shared etc) ?
16) What services can be mixed and what new services can be created ? Any examples of these?(citizen’s reporting, real time traffic monitoring are obvious examples)
and so on ...
To understand web 2.0, I am going to mainly use Tim O Reilly’s original article alongwith other references from the web as linked.
The seven core principles of web 2.0 revised
As I understand them, according to the article, a web 2.0 service should have as many of the following seven core characteristics as possible. I have outlined these principles partly as a foundation for subsequent discussions but also for my own clarification. Please refer the original link as above for more details.
1. The Web As Platform
Software as a service is data plus software:
A web 2.0 service is a combination of software and data. The term ‘web as a platform’ is not new. Netscape used this term first but the Netscape application (i.e. browser) was created in context of the existing ecosystem (‘WebTop’ instead of ‘desktop’ mirroring the famous ‘horseless carriage’ analogy). While Netscape was still ‘software’ – in contrast, Google is software plus a database. Individually, the software and the database are of limited value – but together they create a new type of service. In this context, the value of the software lies in being able to manage the (vast amounts of) data. The better it can do it, the more valuable the software becomes.
Harnessing the ‘long tail’: The term ‘long tail’ refers to the vast number of small sites that make up the web as opposed to the few ‘important’ sites. This is illustrated by the ‘double-click vs. adsense/overture’ example. The DoubleClick business model was not based on harnessing the vast number of small sites. In contrast, it relied on serving the needs of a few large sites (generally dictated by the media/advertising industry). In fact, their business model actively discouraged small sites(through mechanisms like formal sales contracts). In contrast, anyone can set up an adsense/overture account easily. This makes it easier for the vast number of sites(long tail) to use the service(ad sense/overture).
In general, Web 2.0 systems are geared to harness the power of a large number of casual users who often contribute data implicitly as opposed to a small number of users who contribute explicitly. Tags are an example of implicit contribution. Thus, the web 2.0 service must be geared to capturing ‘many implicit/metadata contributions from a large number of users’ and not a small number of contributions from a few ‘expert’ users.
2. Harnessing Collective Intelligence
In this context, collective intelligence can mean many things
- Yahoo as an aggregation of links
- Google page mark
- Blogging
- Tagging and collective categorisation for example flickr and del.icio.us
- Ebay buyers and sellers
- Amazon reviews
- Wikipedia
And so on ..
All of the above are metadata/content created by users that collectively adds value to the service(which as we have seen before is a combination of the software and the data).
Harnessing the collective intelligence involves understanding some other aspects like peer production, the wisdom of crowds and the network effect.
Peer production as defined by the professor Yochai Benkler’s seminal paper peer production . A concise definition from wikipedia is a new model of economic production, different from both markets and firms, in which the creative energy of large numbers of people is coordinated (usually with the aid of the internet) into large, meaningful projects, largely without traditional hierarchical organization or financial compensation. •
The wisdom of crowds – as discussed in the book wisdom of crowds by James Surowiecki whose central idea is that large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant—better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future.
And finally, network effects from user contributions. In other words, the ability for users to add value (knowledge) easily and then the ability for their contributions to flow seamlessly across the whole community – thereby enriching the whole body of knowledge. A collective brain/intelligence of the blogosphehe if you will – made possible by RSS. A living, dynamic entity not controlled by a single entity.
3. Data is the Next Intel Inside
We have seen previously that a web 2.0 service combines function(software) and data(which is managed by the software). Web 2.0 services inevitably have a body of data (Amazon reviews, eBay products and sellers, Google links) Thus, it’s very different to a word processor for example – where we are selling only software (and no data).
Data is the key differentiator. In most cases, the company serving the data (for example Google) also ‘owns’ the data (for example information about links). However, that may not always be the case. In case of Google maps , Google does not own the data. Mapping data is often owned by companies such as NavTech and satellite imagery data is owned by companies like Digital Globe. Google maps combine data from these two sources(at least).
Taking the ‘chain of data’ further, sites like housing maps are a mashup between Google maps and craigslist. The more difficult it is to create the data, the more valuable it is(for example satellite images are valuable). In cases where data which is relatively easy to create, the company providing the most useful service and hitting critical mass will be valuable.
4. End of the Software Release Cycle
Web 2.0 services do not have a software release cycle. While Google reindexes its link indices every day, Microsoft releases a major software release every few years. That’s because there is no ‘data’ in windows 95, windows XP etc. It’s pure software. Not so with Google. Google is data plus software. It has to reindex its ‘data’ every day else it loses its value. Thus, operations are critical to a web 2.0 company. There is no ‘release’ as such. The flip side of this coin is – there are widespread beta releases and users are treated as co-developers.
5. Lightweight Programming Models
Distributed applications have always been complex to design. However, distributed applications are central to the web. Web services were deemed to be the mechanism to create distributed applications easily. But web services, in their full incarnation using the SOAP stack, are relatively complex. RSS is a simpler(and quicker) way to achieve much of the functionality of web services.
Simpler technologies like RSS and AJAX are the driving force behind web 2.0 services as opposed to the full fledged webservices stack using mechanisms like SOAP. These technologies are designed to syndicate rather than orchestrate(one of the goals of web services). They are thus opposite to the traditional corporate mindset of controlling access to data. They are also designed for reuse. Reuse in the sense of reusing the service and not the data(i.e. they make it easier to remix the service).
Finally, innovation becomes a case of mixing (cobbling together) services existing services – something which we talked about in OpenGardens in the mobile context.
6. Software Above the Level of a Single Device
The sixth principle i.e. ‘Software above the level of a single device’ – is an obvious staring point when we think of the impact of web 2.0 on mobility and telecoms. At one level, the whole of the ‘new’ web should be transparent and accessible across any device. Indeed a browser is the least common denominator in all mobile data devices - and that’s a sobering thought. But there is more to the sixth principle than merely access via the browser.
iTunes leverages data(music) through the service and provides some data management/metadata functions. The mobile device has the potential to act as a significant reporter of data rather than a mere consumer of data. This data, like all web 2.0 services, may be implicit or explicit. This point will be a significant area for discussion in the next two articles.
7. Rich User Experiences
While mechanisms like RSS are being used to syndicate the content of web sites out to a much wider audience, the user experience at the client itself is undergoing a dramatic improvement. The collection of technologies driving this enhanced user experience is Ajax popularised by Jesse James Garrett in the AJAX essay
AJAX is being used in services like gmail, Google maps and Flickr and it already provides the technology to create a seamless user experience combing many discrete services. The impact of RSS and AJAX is to create a service spanning content from many sites. To the user, this is a single, transparent experience. Effectively, content is being freed from its original container. Instead of the user going to the content(as in a user navigating to a web site), the content is going to the user(through RSS). Technologies like AJAX are making it easier for users to create the glue which binds the various content sources(RSS) together.
Conclusion to part One
This article laid the groundwork for the next two articles. It was an introduction to web 2.0 and a series of initial questions which came to my mind when discussing the interplay between web 2.0 and mobility. My objectives, as I have stated, are to extend Tim’s seven principles to mobility and digital convergence. I welcome your comments and questions and I shall answer them in the next two sections of this article.
Many thanks.
Ajit Jaokar
www.opengardensblog.futuretext.com
Ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com
References
http://www.roughtype.com/archives/2005/10/the_amorality_o.php
http://webservices.sys-con.com/read/161874_p.htm
http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,1282,69114,00.html
http://web2.wsj2.com/web2ishere.htm
http://web2.wsj2.com/the_best_web_20_software_of_2005.htm
http://radar.oreilly.com/archives/2005/10/the_amorality_of_web_20.html
http://digital-web.com/articles/web_2_for_designers/
http://www.adambosworth.net/archives/000031.html
Image source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Web20_en.png
Permanent link: http://opengardensblog.futuretext.com/archives/2005/12/mobile_web_20_w.html
Posted by ajit at 11:23 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
December 24, 2005
Crazy frog: Should mblox be fined?
Hello all
The crazy frog episode seems to have culminated with mblox being fined by the ICSTIS
Qs is - should mblox be fined and not Jamba(the creator of the crazy frog)
The mblox argument (as you can see from the press release below) is - the current regulation implies that only the provider(and not the creator of the content) can be fined.
That may be so(and I believe that the regulation needs reviewing) BUT ..
Is that not the role of the provider to advise the client about exactly such potential issues? Afterall, mblox are members of every organization under the sun from the MDA, MEF , MMA, 160 characters , Australian direct marketing association !
Surely, they can't claim innocence?
Either it's collusion(with Jamba) or incompetence ..
Not a pretty choice .. But a brutally frank one ..
What do you think?
In addition, what do you think this does for the reputation of the mobile marketing industry? Such behaviour merely tars mobile marketers with the same brush unfortunately.
However, I do think that the rules under which they are fined are unfair
Seek comments?
mblox press release
160 characters article
Posted by ajit at 11:18 AM
December 23, 2005
Carnival of the mobilists - Christmas special ..
A great bunch of people. Their christmas special is HERE
Happy holidays everyone - although I shall still be posting
Posted by ajit at 8:14 PM
December 18, 2005
NFC - the answer to mcommerce woes?
Is NFC (Near field communication) the answer to mcommerce woes?
The FT on Friday seems to think so (Near field communication – the mobile phone that puts cash out of business by Ben King Dec 16 2005 – financial times – London ).
This blog draws on some insights from this article and adds some of my own thoughts to the uptake of NFC
Every time I use my ‘Oyster’ card – I think about how easy it would be to extend the same concept ‘beyond the London underground’. i.e. use the Oyster card to carry cash and pay for items.
The Oyster card (and other similar cards such as Octopus in Hongkong and suica in Japan use a technology under the umbrella called NFC (Near field communication) governed by the NFC forum
What possibilities does an amalgamation of NFC and the mobile phone hold? How will it boost mcommerce? Mcommerce has had a chequered history. Is NFC the answer to mcommerce woes?
So far, mcommerce does not seem to have taken off in most parts except oddly in places like Africa (and also of course Japan and Korea).
In Europe, the last attempt to create a ‘top down’ mcommerce body ended in disaster (Simpay).
But Simpay was only the latest disaster. There were many more previous attempts at mcommerce such as the mondex trials with BT , Dual chip phones as early as May 1999 in Helsinki.
Other scenarios were tried out - for example, collaboration between one Mobile operator and one bank (e.g. Postbank and Telfort in the Netherlands) or one Mobile operator and several banks (e.g. the Mobile operator TIM and Italian banks in Italy). Pure play vendors – such as Paybox who were solely in the business of providing a payment platform also were an option.
Ofcourse there are the more successful options such as premium SMS and SMS payment systems such as in Korea where you accept the transaction by SMS (but still use your credit card).
Still .. mcommerce is not mainstream though .. and that’s sad.
Will NFC change that?
Like many ideas, mcommerce has clear practical benefits to consumers and businesses but the incumbents(like banks and credit cards companies) are too deeply entrenched especially in western countries. The operators also cannot seem to agree on a standard.
At first glance, NFC seems to be yet another forum. If you remember the old days prior to OMA, there have been many previous attempts prior to simpay and many fora (many of which merged under the umbrella of the openmobile alliance .
Then, there was Bluetooth – full of promise but low on execution.
However, NFC may well gain from the Bluetooth experience. Its not enough to create a technology like Bluetooth and have some start-ups create applications. In most cases, these applications remain in the prototype stage. Its far more important to have a major non operator consumer body behind the execution (such as the London underground).
In the past, many thought that the operator was the logical choice. Clearly, that’s not happening except for some isolated cases. Even payment services like vodafone m-pay are useful for the operator’s customers only. It’s debatable how many people are using operator led payment systems such as m-pay
So, what is NFC?
Devices containing NFC technology are triggered by proximity(few centimetres). Think swiping your oyster card. Its possible to equip a phone with NFC technology for as little as three pounds. NFC operates in the 13.56 Mhz range.
As per the NFC forum web site
The vision of the NFC Forum is to enable users to access content and services in an intuitive way by simply touching smart objects and connecting devices just by holding them next to each other. To bring this vision to life, the NFC Forum invites all interested parties — companies from mobile communications, consumer electronics, chip manufacturing, computing, media and entertainment, telecom and payment services sectors — to join the NFC Forum and help further our goals.
Collectively, the NFC Forum's members will develop and agree upon common protocols for basic links between devices, standards for interoperability based on common data structures and formats, specifications for device-independent service delivery, and more. The Forum will then work to promote these deliverables and the use of NFC technology worldwide. All of these efforts will support Forum member companies in providing successful products and services to their customers.
Currently, there are two technologies covering this sector felica from Sony and mifare from Philips.
The value proposition of NFC is to unite these two technologies
‘Unite’ means ensure that readers of felica can read mifare cards and vice versa. This could be VERY interesting
Obviously, the next step is to put in a mobile phone and all sorts of applications are possible.
Interestingly enough, NFC founding members include players from across the spectrum
Again, from the NFC forum website ..
As a group, the NFC Forum’s Sponsor Members represent the leading players in key industries in all the major regions of the world. The Sponsor Members are: MasterCard International, Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., Ltd., Microsoft Corp., Motorola, Nokia Corporation, NEC, Renesas Technology, Royal Philips Electronics, Samsung, Sony Corporation, Texas Instruments and Visa International.
i.e. this includes credit card makers, device manufacturers and others like Microsoft.
Missing in action are the operators. Some have pledged support – but overall it’s lukewarm.
Time will tell .. if NFC will be a success or yet another initiative which will not take off.
What do you think?
Posted by ajit at 9:33 PM
December 11, 2005
my presentation at imobicon(mobile multiplayer games)
Posted by ajit at 1:55 PM
November 26, 2005
I am speaking at imobicon in seoul(south korea)
Hello all
I am speaking at imobicon in Seoul(South Korea). Speaking on the first day on mobile communities. This is a fascinating conference and many things to learn(not just mobility but the full digital convergence spectrum)
If you are there, please email me and lets get in touch
ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com
Mobile Industry Trends & Future Outlook - The Operator's Forum
Evaluating the global trends for 3G deployment and adoption
What do operators need to do to ensure future success?
Ensuring future services and benefits reach the consumer: the top priority
A vision for the future mobile industry and services: what will be the challenges and successes?
Assumptions of early 3G users Launch target dilemma: business, youth, early adopter
Prototypical young 3G user: Generation-C
Communities as a category of Customer
Road to reachability: deeper customer involvement with 3G
OMA in the Asia-Pacific Region
OMA Evolution Through Innovation
OMA and Global Standards Collaboration
Highlights of OMA's Recent Enabler Developments and Releases
OMA Value to Membership
Creating successful service development through global partnerships
Why is Korea so important for the Western mobile market?
What can different regional markets learn from each other if anything?
How will convergence affect the future mobile industry?
Mobile Content: Strategies for Increasing ARPU
Delivering Multimedia Services: 3G vs WiBro (& WiMax)
Does the operator need to keep control of branding?
What are the pre-requisites for mobile content and applications to be commercially viable?
Which new trends look set to influence offerings globally?
How much progress has there been in generating content designed specially for mobile?
Value Added Services; content is king
From broadband to ubiquity
WiBro and Mobile WiMAX
WiBro towards 4G services
What Services Do Consumers Use On High-Speed Networks In South Korea?
Which content has seen successful adoption in South Korea?
What is the market telling us regarding which services are really making money?
What is the business case for evolving 3G and do consumers need it?
How will HSDPA or WiBro/WiMax change data services and service quality?
Examining the developments of CDMA 2000-1X-EV-DO
HSDPA & WiBro/WiMax: complementary solutions or competitive? Single or dual delployment strategies?
Mobile Music
What is the best strategy for partnerships between record companies and operators?
Is mobile the right channel to generate new revenues for music companies?
What are the challenges for reconciling rights and royalties for record companies and artists?
Which particular territories are attracting the attention of the major record companies?
Developing Mobile Games The Future of 3G: Evolving Mobile Technology
Mobile Communities
Creating mobile communities with multi-player games
Messenger & community service in mobile, SMS & MMS
Overcoming the challenges of multiplayer community via mobile
Speaker: Ajit Joakar, CEO, FutureText
What is the Future for 3G?
The transformation of 3G networks to super fast broadband
HSUPA, OFDM, Mimo
Converged Buisness Model in Mobile Games
PSP and the other emerging wireless game platforms
Who is the last winner among PSP, Mobile 3D Game Phone and other platforms?
How well are 3D games performing?
Has there been market demand for 3D handsets?
Mobile 3D Gaming Service strategy
What is the Future for Fixed-Mobile Convergence?
Evaluating the business case and implications for the future communications industry
Can IP & Wireless Technology Converge to Deliver Advanced Multimedia Services? Can a seamless experience be created for the end user between voice, data and multimedia?
Enhancing the Multimedia Experience
Mobile Network Security
European Mobile Content and Games
European mobile content market development
Operator strategies for addressing the European games market
Opportunities for Korean mobile content/ game companies to establish a presence in Europe
Mobile Industry Trends & Future Outlook - The Mobile Content Provider's Forum
Enabling Rich Mobile Content to Increase Revenue
What's the next-generation killer application in mobile world?
What are the latest services in development?
Wired and wireless inter-working gaming
Adult mobile content & Mobile music
Mobile TV: Strategies & Outlook Mobile Middleware Solution
Enabling Mobile TV Services with Satellite DMB
Will DMB be the killer application?
What is the business model for DMB?
IMS vs DMB
DRM: Does it kill Content Generation?
The appropriate level of DRM: Protecting revenues while ensuring ease of use
How real is the perceived threat to creativity posed by DRM?
Does adding DRM to content really impact on handset design & architecture?
Will a single DRM standard across mobiles, PCs, and other devices drive up costs & stifle innovation?
Mobile TV Seen Through Recent DMB Standardization Activities Basic A/V DMB
DMB CAS
BIFS/TPEG
The future of the mobile platforms in Korea
The world leading standardisation platform will be WIPI?
Usability extension of WIPI: Is it applicable to other convergence devices?
Mobile Broadcast Services: Pros and Cons based on South Korean Case
What is good about broadcast services on mobile phone?
What is the downside of it? Especially, technical and economical burdens
What is the status in South Korea?
Contents service in the circumstance of convergence through middleware platform
How to execute contents without conversion on any platform by middleware solution
Mobile video on demand and broadcasting services
The mobile video business model
Controlling the end user experience
Where is the revenue in mobile video?
Developing innovative video content - how can the industry best work together?
Enabling Mobile TV The Evolution of the Mobile Handset
Is Mobile Triple Play - Voice, Broadcast TV/video and Data - The Killer Combination? - Choosing the right technology and business model for on-demand video and broadcast TV for mobile Triple Play
How the convergence of mobile and broadband services and multi-channel delivery will change the broadcasting market? Analysing the evolution from broadcast TV to network PVR and Video-on-Demand services and its impact for mobile content business
What is the revenue potential and sharing model in mobile broadcasting and how to bundle the services? Results from the Finnish mobile TV pilot in Helsinki over DVB-H
The mobile handset value chain
Handset evolution : changing the consumer behaviour to multimedia services
3G multimedia handset : new design challenges on the way to rich content The challenges of merging telecommunications and broadcasting for the mobile handset; key drivers for handset innovation
What about low cost handsets
Storage, flash cards, connectivity, secure applications
Mobile TV: Global Update And Outlook For ChinaGlobal overview of developments in mobile & handset television
Handset-based vs. other terminal
3G vs. non mobile network-centric
Posted by ajit at 2:46 PM
November 12, 2005
Last week's carnival ..
Hello all
The carnival of the mobilists is gaining speed – and that’s great. So good to see this simple idea take off. This week, it was Troy Norcross(the anti spam man). You can see the carnival HERE.
The contributors include(blogroll)
Walter Adamson from imodestrategy.com
Dennis at WapReview
Howard at SmartMobs
Mike B at iRadioWaves
Vangorilla at the Pondering Primate
Darla Mack - the Mobile Diva at her personal blog
Alan Moore from Communities Dominate
Russell Buckley from MobHappy
Rudy De Waele over at M-Trends
C. Enrique Orit'z at his personal blog
Ajit from Open Gardens
David Taylor at Mobile Marketing Magazine
Oliver from Mobile Weblog
And Troy at Consumer Preference formerly SpamToGo
Posted by ajit at 2:59 PM
November 6, 2005
Inside the mind of the mobile operator
We wrote OpenGardens based on primary research i.e. actual interviews with mobile network operators, mobile startups etc.
In OpenGardens, we speak of Inside the mind of the mobile operator or walking in the operator’s shoes
Many companies creating emerging mobile applications do not see it from the ‘other side’ so to speak. This blog is an outline of some of my thoughts in this space. Another way to look at this is to consider – what would be the priorities/mindset/issues of a typical manager in the mobile data industry?
Almost by definition, a mobile network operator is a ‘big’ organisation. People complain about how hard it is to work with an operator… but still expect operators to fund developments in this area… while lowering prices.
All big organisations are difficult to deal with but in case of the mobile network operator, some unique factors come into play
a) These are ‘big’ organisations – but in most cases - have only really been around for about 10 years. That’s not very long for such a large business!(I am talking of the ‘mobile’ side of the business as opposed to voice)
b) Most managers have come from a typical telecoms background. The data side of mobile applications is actually more akin to the typical Internet based applications than to telecoms applications. Thus, it is not familiar to many – and is often perceived as a threat
c) Operators have experienced rapid growth with voice – but that revenue is under threat through technologies like VOIP
d) Most people now have mobile phones and are becoming much more price sensitive. Overall, Many operators we spoke to, believe the growth period is over (believe it or not)! - and they are behaving as such i.e. operating in a mature market as opposed to an emerging market.
e) See the market consolidation taking place in Europe as an indicator of the above and also the growth of low cost MVNOs and the need to reduce churn(all are indicators of grabbing marketshare, growth from other players when the companies feel that bottom line growth has peaked)
The operator has to spend billions up front and then sell as much as possible to recoup the investment in a technologically disruptive business environment.
Coverage costs dominates i.e. rolling out the network, etc. Operators need 40% EBITDA to cover capital and loan costs because of high level of up-front investment. (for most businesses – 25% EBITDA would be great!). Meanwhile, UMTS (3G) is still running on very low capacity – estimated at 10% estimated
Thus, we see a price war – the basis of the price war is “more usage for the same price” rather than “same usage for less price” in order to maintain ARPU and capital repayments. Expect to see enormous minute/text bundles. This is very different from the heady days of 2000, when we all thought content could grow ARPU!
Finally, after the cost of the network itself, Quality of service and support costs are the next highest. With time to market at 13 months for new product introductions and the high cost of support – introduction of new services is very slow. As developers of emerging mobile applications, this is painfully familiar to many of us!!
I seek your thoughts and experiences on the above. You can email me at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com
Posted by ajit at 5:36 PM
November 4, 2005
the carnival commeth ..
Hello all ..
The carnival commeth again this week and it's pitched at my blog. It’s a great concept, created by Russell Buckley, and I am happy to support it. The carnival is an excellent motivation to ensure quality in blogs - because you know that your blogs will get a wide audience within our industry.
So, what have we this week .. A global set of blogs
From London, Tomi Ahonen - wonders if the mobile phone is emerging as the seventh mass media in his blog Understanding the 6th and 7th media
This is a fascinating article .. The first five media are Print, recording, cinema, radio and TV. All are mature with a history of over 50 years. The sixth is the Internet - still only in it's teens. Followed by the youngest - i.e. the mobile phone. Tomi's post compares and contrasts the seven mass media - especially the newest - mobility.
As this new mass media emerges, will we see 'Uncle Zeno' there? This is the theme of our next blog ..
Following his anti-spam theme, Troy Norcross – again from London – worries (and rightly so ..) about the proverbial 'Uncle Zeno' - who forwards every silly joke, coupon, rant etc etc .. While not strictly 'spam' (because its non commercial) .. 'Uncle Zeno' is a pest nonetheless. And what happens when the good uncle emerges in the mobile world? read more at
When does Viral Marketing become SPAM ?
Meanwhile .. Shannon J Hager from the Charlotte USA provides an interesting analysis to the future of the Motorola ROKR in his post Motorola's ROKR Was Born To Fail . As the title suggests, Shannon is not very optimistic about the success for ROKR. According to Shannon, for Apple, ROKR appears to be a toe in the water experiment .. in anticipation of bigger things to come .. An insightful analysis
Rudy from Barcelona tackles the familiar topic of mobile DRM – specifically mobile DRM for the ‘family’ so to speak.
Rudy says ..
Let's look at this now from the end-user perspective. Let's take my personal family situation: 2 adults, 3 kids each with a mobile. We all still buy a ringtone once in a while (to express ourselves!) but let's focus on the full track downloads for a while. When buying music we download from iTunes and we still buy cd's. The songs of the artists we all like we copy to eachothers' devices for private and family use, I have written on that before. Let's say we pay an average 15 $ per cd with 10-15 songs on it in 320 kbps quality!
Now, according mobile music players current strategies, if we all like the same tune, we all need to download a full track at 3$ a piece. That's 15 $ for 1 song on 5 different devices for less good quality (average 128 kbps). Well anybody can see that this just ain't gonna work IRL. Mobile music is going to be shared from device to device the same way it is shared through p2p networks and pc's.
You can see more HERE
Walter - down under – reports on the situation in Japan and contrasts with Europe.
While we still see debates about odd things such as whether or not mobile advertising will work, the Japanese are far beyond that debate and are even at the stage where cellular phone users are fast becoming important customers for online merchants. A recent study shows that sales by internet stores via cell phone exhibited a 46.6% year on year surge - as postedat Walter Adamson's mobile search blog Goobile. This post
also picks up on the power that digital broadcasting to mobile will have in advertising and influencing cellphone users to buy online via their handset.
Jim downing, at smartmobs speaks of your phone as a virtual health network
One of the keys is the mobile phone - because people no longer leave home without their phone."Mobiles could automatically send signals from sensor devices monitoring a person's health status to care providers - an instant network that triggered alerts and interventions when needed
Carlo, as usual, comes up with interesting insights about MVNOs and how they are proliferating in markets like Denmark. See his post at
When Your Phone Says Something About You
Debi Jones from USA is now running Fridays as Mobile job days on her blog. Read more about mobile job days at Debi's blog
The pondering primate(Scott Schaffer) ponders this week about the SMS Land Rush
Finally, my own post laments the sense of deja-vu with the launch of i-mode by o2 in the UK.
And finally - finally .. , my post of the week goes to Tomi Ahonen’s post at Understanding the 6th and 7th media. This is classic Tomi – well worth a read!
Next week's Carnival is hosted by Troy Norcross (The man who really hates spam) at Mobile Marketing & Spam at http://spamtogo.blogspot.com/
Thanks for all your posts guys!
Adios till next time
Posted by ajit at 7:30 PM
siigh .. when will our industry learn?
I blinked .. and I stared .. at a billboard in central London which proclaimed ‘i-mode is coming – and that it’s faster than WAP’
Faster than WAP????
Firstly, anyone who has done any performance tuning/analysis knows that ‘faster’ is a relative term. It depends .. depends upon many factors and if you stack the cards right .. WAP could well be ‘faster’ than i-mode .. not that anyone cares ..
Speaking of which .. let’s hope consumers have short memories when it comes to WAP (like most analysts – I agree that WAP is a success as a transport mechanism – but we are talking consumer apps here ..)
Secondly .. No one cares about WAP/i-mode .. Its more about what can people do with it. Better to sell it in terms of services and features than technology .. This is a very familiar feeling .. first WAP, then MMS, and now i-mode(claiming to be faster than WAP?) ..
Being an ‘old timer’ in this industry(and that’s 1999/2000) ..
I recollect seeing an ad at our local carphone warehouse in Harrow ..
It was a 7110 with a soccer ball on it as shown ..
It was worldcup fever and the impression was .. you could see vivid colours etc on the phone(or even watch the goal itself) .. The point is .. that’s a 7110 .. 9.6K GSM ..
The i-mode billboard reminded me of that .. once again .. the ad men(and women .. let’s be politically correct here J ) have got it hopelessly wrong ..
Soccer ball image from www.soccerballworld.com/ site_map.htm
7110 from Nokia
Posted by ajit at 7:17 PM
October 27, 2005
mobile mutliplayer games - challenges and opportunities ..
This blog entry(acticle) is derieved from a forthcoming version of OpenGardens . I welcome comments and feedback.
Introduction
This blog entry (article) is derived from a forthcoming version of OpenGardens (www.opengardens.futuretext.com). I welcome comments and feedback.
Multiplayer games are a natural fit with mobile devices due to their inherent potential for communication such as buddy lists, messaging, chat etc. Because they bring so many elements together (gaming, Bluetooth, location based services etc), they are, by definition, more complex than mobile single player games.
While single player games have been popular on mobile devices, I believe that the real potential of gaming on mobile devices lies in multiplayer games – simply because a mobile device is all about communication and successful multiplayer games are based on user interaction(hence communication)
However, firstly, what is a mobile multiplayer game? Obviously, from the name itself – the game must be ‘mobile’ and ‘more than one player can play it’. But, that definition hides many more aspects as we see below – for example – is a game which spans the Internet and mobile – a ‘mobile’ multiplayer game or ‘an internet based game with a mobile component’? Mobile multiplayer games also have some unique issues such as latency, the involvement of community, the impact of IP charges and so on.
Gaming, in general, originates from the video gaming industry. The video gaming industry is already mature and rivals the movie and the music industry in terms of revenue. Traditionally, there have been three ways video games have been played – Console gaming (PS2, Xbox etc), PC gaming and handheld games (Nintendo gameboy device). Mobile games were seen as a fourth platform for video games.
Most mobile games today are single player games developed using Java or BREW. The game is downloaded on the mobile device as an application and costs under £5/$5. Many popular games are based on brands such as ‘Harry Potter’/’Lord of the ring’ etc. Popular genres include arcade games, sports games and fast action games. Similar to gaming on console and the PC, the players are predominantly male. Many mobile games seen today have been straightforward conversion of more popular games such as the older arcade games. The industry model is also similar to that of console gaming – aim for a few big hits but also include a large number of titles selling modestly.
Within the mobile applications industry, mobile gaming is a relatively mature segment. There are well defined channels to market, distribution models and aggregators. As the industry matures, it is undergoing consolidation with a spate of recent takeovers (for example infospace taking over www.iomo.com and sorrent merging with www.macrospace.com).
In contrast, the market for mobile multiplayer games are still nascent – even in mature markets like Japan and Korea. In comparison to single player games, multiplayer games also require a much higher rate of initial investment. Inspite of these two factors – I believe that mobile multiplayer games offer potential for new entrants because of the following reasons:
a) Although there are still many limitations in place, mobile multiplayer games could benefit from the network effect
b) The potential of creating communities around multiplayer games offers competitive advantages to the early entrant
c) Localised gaming via Bluetooth is possible which overcomes many of the problems associated with deploying a game at an operator(although Bluetooth introduces it’s own set of problems like the lack of an integrated billing system, dependence on location etc)
d) Many mobile multiplayer games also have a ‘web’ component. Thus, the game itself could be distributed from the Internet with the mobile component as an addendum
e) Unlike the PC and console gaming models, mobile gaming has a much larger player audience. In fact, simple, casual games targeting a large section of the population offer the best chance for success as we discuss below
In the following sections, let us consider some key factors that influence the industry at the moment and the opportunities for new entrants. We discuss mobile multiplayer games in greater detail because they combine many different facets of mobility for example community, location etc.
A separate category?
Is the mobile multiplayer game a separate category or is it an addendum to the existing gaming platforms on the web?
Certainly, many mobile multiplayer games also have a web component. Adding a strong web component enables the game to be far more interesting and potentially targets a large user base. In addition, the combination of mobility, location based services, multiplayer games and social networking has the capacity to produce a new type of game which utilises a virtual environment mapped to a physical environment (often a city). Typically, the virtual environment comprises players using a combination of a mobile device and the web.
One of the best known examples is the mogi game (Japan) www.mogimogi.com .
The basic idea is simple - It’s a game 'on the move'. You pick up 'virtual' items. You trade them with other players. It also uses a combination of the web and mobile experience. The web is used for functions such as chatting.
Mogi is also unique in the use of the web to differentiate between casual gamers and hardcore gamers. Essentially, the casual player is the one on the move while the hardcore player is the one who ‘directs’ the casual players from the web console. Effectively, this brings a greater number of players into the game.
I believe that the mobile multiplayer game is not a distinct category. It will be an offshoot of gaming on the web. This categorisation is important because it determines the channels to market and also the relative importance of the mobile operators in the equation. The combination of the web and mobility will be beneficial to all players in the industry.
Next generation portable gaming devices
While we have discussed mobile multiplayer games as an evolution of existing mobile single player games, a whole new class of games are entering the market. These originate from the console industry and include portable gaming devices like the Sony PSP and the Nintendo Gameboy DS (we will call them ‘portable gaming devices to distinguish from mobile phones used to play games).
Benefiting from the experience of the console gaming industry, portable gaming devices already have a rich interface and a catalogue of games that they can draw on. Crucially, they use WiFi for the multi-user communication (as opposed to the telecoms network). This allows them to bypass the vagaries of the telecoms network but at the same time they are hampered by the limitations of WiFi because they can only operate within short distances of the WiFi access point.
It’s difficult to say how the market will evolve. My view is – these two classes of games(i.e. mobile multiplayer games and portable gaming devices) will end up serving different classes of customers. Mobile multiplayer games will lean towards casual games whereas the portable gaming devices will attract the more hardcore, immersive gamer.
Operators and mobile multiplayer games
Operators have a love / apathy relationship with mobile multiplayer games.
On one hand, mobile multiplayer games could generate a lot of traffic. But the operators want to keep all traffic charges. But developers would like to share a portion of that traffic. Currently, since developers do not get a share of any IP traffic, they try to get an upfront fee from the customer. As a result, the uptake is lower.
Secondly, the increased use of the web means that the role of the mobile operator is reduced when it comes to the multiplayer game. Bluetooth gaming also has the same impact on the mobile operators.
Hence, overall, you don’t see many in the mobile operator community too enthusiastic about mobile multiplayer gaming.
The impact of technology
In this section, we discuss three ways in which technology impacts the mobile multiplayer games industry
Critical mass: Single player mobile games differ from multiplayer mobile games in their emphasis on technology. For single player games, the rich user experience is important. For multiplayer games, the community/interaction is important. Thus, the winner of the game in multiplayer mobile applications - is the one who achieves critical mass. In general, simpler technologies lend themselves more to a critical mass application. In Europe and USA, at the moment, that is SMS/WAP.
Latency: Latency is the time difference between the time a machine makes a request to the time it receives a response. Latency is critical in fast action games. Many successful PC and console games are fast action games. When the request/response occurs over the air network, latency is high i.e. the amount of time is longer. This means, fast action games are not suitable for mobile multiplayer gaming – with the exception of Bluetooth based games. In case of Bluetooth games, latency is acceptable enough for mobile multiplayer games. Other genres are not affected by latency such as turn based games.
Devices: Briefly, the key issue is – will players buy ‘gaming only’ devices? A gaming only device (which may or may not function as a phone) would appeal to the hardcore gamers. Hardcore gamers have traditionally driven the console gaming industry setting off a virtuous cycle of richer features and more expensive hardware. It’s too early to say if this would play out on mobile devices
Hardcore gamers vs. casual gamers
Hardcore gamers have always driven the uptake of console gaming. Cinematic, immersive, richer games have led to better hardware.
However, the mobile device does not lend itself well to immersive, extended gameplay. In the section on the impact of brands, we also pointed out that casual gamers are becoming more important and popular.
The casual games model is much more suited to mobile gaming due to its simpler learning curve, familiar concepts etc. By extension, we believe that casual gaming will also be popular with multiplayer games. Multiplayer versions of casual games are already popular on the web and can be easily extended to the mobile device.
Specialised mobile gaming devices
The console gaming industry is driven by the hardcore gamers who are increasingly more demanding in their desire for richer, more impressive games. This sets off a virtuous cycle with more powerful hardware, richer graphics etc.
Most handsets are not mobile gaming devices i.e. they are not built ground up for the purpose of playing mobile games. The first serious attempt to create a mobile device whose goal was primarily to play games (rather than as a phone) was the N-Gage from Nokia.
Gizmondo is another such device. Other devices such as Sony PSP and Nintendo GameBoy are handheld gaming devices but provide connectivity through WiFi and not the cellular network.
The console gaming industry is well defined and predictable with hardware upgrades every four years and well defined channels to market (mainly retail). With richer interfaces and powerful hardware, the play times for console games are increasing. They are also becoming more immersive and cinematic. In contrast, the mobile multiplayer games are more suited towards the casual gamers. Currently, the companies displaying an interest in mobile multiplayer games have their roots in PC or console gaming. The initial single player user base for mobile games is also familiar with PC/console gaming.
The N-gage from Nokia was the first attempt to create a ‘gaming only’ device. N-gage received a lot of negative press at its launch – mainly due to its awkward ‘taco like’ shape and its requirement to change game cards. However, the N-gage was an experiment at many levels – and a worthy one! The N-gage introduced many features for the first time – Bluetooth gaming, multiplayer gaming, a different channel to market(retail), richer device capabilities needed for a good gaming experience etc.
We believe that there are two separate market segments here – the hardcore gamer who could be attracted to the specialised devices and the casual gamer who will use their phone to play simpler games.
The lack of ‘unlimited use’ priceplan
The lack of ‘unlimited use’ pricing is hindering many applications especially mobile multiplayer games. Indeed in many markets we do have unlimited use pricing today but the price point (monthly fee) is very high for general consumer adoption. Operators are playing a delicate balancing game here. Clearly as 3G becomes more prevalent, the available bandwidth exists. But, allowing people to use all the bandwidth they want at a cheap rate may lead to totally disruptive applications such as mobile VOIP, which can cannibalise existing revenue.
Thus, unlimited use data pricing is a critical issue and should be watched carefully. The market in which we see unlimited data use at low cost, is going to see a hockey stick effect in mobile data usage and applications such as mobile multiplayer gaming.
Multiplayer gaming platforms and standards
There are some companies who offer mobile multiplayer gaming platforms (just like location management platforms, SMScs etc). Mostly, these are targeted towards the mobile operator but some also have developer programs.
The companies offering platforms targeting mobile multiplayer games include:
Provision X technology from glu(formerly macrospace) , Kayak interactive , Terraplay: and Nokia’s SNAP platform - used for N-gage.
The mobile games interoperability forum is creating standards for mobile multiplayer games.
Mobile multiplayer games examples
Some well known mobile multiplayer games include
Samurai Romanesque: NTT DoCoMo’s first mobile massively multiplayer online role playing game
mogi mogi : – A mobile multiplayer game from Japan combining location, web interaction etc
Ultima Online Mobile :The mobile version of the popular online role playing game
Botfighters : popular SMS based mobile multiplayer game
Pocket kingdom for N-gage: - The first mobile multiplayer online role playing game
Conclusions
We have covered many aspects of mobile multiplayer games above. As an application, I find it very interesting especially because mobile multiplayer games can span both the web and mobile. They also offer scope for new entrants and any company who can get mobile multiplayer games right stands to make a lot of money especially if they can create a successful community (which offers a strong barrier to entry).
Image source: http://www.midlet-review.com
Posted by ajit at 9:21 PM
October 16, 2005
t-mobile web-n-walk ..
web-n-walk is becoming more clear now and certainly sounds intersting.
Essentially .. it means ..
Google on the front page.
Access to the full Internet (under 18 lock)
Websites like bbc etc linked on the main page
For consumers T-Mobile offers three tariffs, starting at GBP30
($53.14), GBP38 ($67.31) and GBP55 ($97.43) a month for 100, 200
and 400 call minutes respectively. All these tariffs allows for
40MB of data downloads, with additional data costing GBP1 ($1.77)
per megabyte
Tom Jowitt writes in T-mobile challenges the walled garden
The launch of Web'n'Walk is seen as crucial for the operator's UK business, which has been losing market share to rivals such as O2 plc, which launched its own mobile internet proposition, i-mode, just last month. Also in September another UK operator, 3 UK, unveiled plans to give its customers access to a limited amount of web content beyond its own "walled garden".
As we predicted in OpenGardens, the walled gardens model was never expected to last - but its interesting to see the divergence in the marketplace(vodafone live, mmo2-imode, 3 and now t-mobile ) are all following different strategies
also ..
T-Mobile imagines business users will be heavier data users, and has increased charges correspondingly. Instead of the monthly tarrifs, business users will pay approximately 90 pounds ($159) for a 1GB data bundle, which can be renewed when the limit has been exceeded.
I dont understand the emphasis on the business user .. but time will tell .. I still think its a consumer application and a useful one at that ..
Posted by ajit at 8:22 PM
October 9, 2005
the relaunch of OpenWaspa ..
After a false start last year, this week we are relaunching OpenWaspa
Hello all,
I seek your thoughts on this concept.
We tried to lauch it last year and had to stop due to some technical issues.
I am about to do so again this week
OpenWaspa was first outlined by Ajit Jaokar and Tony Fish in their book OpenGardens which pertains to emerging mobile/wireless applications and the mobile data industry.
This site is about A showcase for innovative applications in mobility and Digital convergence. (still work in progress)
We are addressing four problems
a) Lack of channels to market
b) Exposure to the 'powers that be' - mainly mobile operators
c) The 'broken value chain' and
d) Interconnectedness - cross industry exposure
Lack of channels to market and Exposure to the 'powers that be' - mainly mobile operators
From the problems listed above, (a) and (b) are related in the sense that the operator is the best channel to market but also the most difficult to approach for the small developers. In OpenGardens - there is a whole section on 'Inside the mind of the operator' i.e. how to position your service to the operator in the best possible way but that still leaves you with the problem of getting access to the operator in the first place. The events address this problem
Similarly, (c) and (d) are related.
The broken value chain
The mobile data value chain is broken because of the 'whales and plankton' concept. In a nutshell - get rid of the middlemen! The industry depends on 'intermediaries in the value chain getting a % of the revenue'/ For example - in mobile games, we have the mobile aggregators, wireless service providers and so on. This model is fine in already established value chains but is no good when you have an emerging industry.
There is hardly any money for the innovator i.e. creator of the new service in a new service. What little revenue the new application gets - is promptly gobbled by the middlemen. Thus, taking a marine biology example - if the plankton die (the garage developers) - the whales die as well (i.e. the whole industry suffers). There is a related problem looking at it from the mobile operator. They simply have too many people knocking at their doors. While it seems that no one is interested in new/innovative applications - our research shows that's not the case.
This is where the OpenWaspa (Open Wireless service provider association) program comes in. The idea is very simple - provide a 'showcase' for new applications. Don't bother about trying to 'restrict' the access to the final developer. Anyone can look at the application and then contact the developer direct and do a direct deal. Thus, there is no incremental revenue share.
The operators like it since it provides a structured way to access new innovation. We will also 'evangelise' the application where we can.
Interconnectedness
Finally, there is the issue of interconnectedness. As mobility advances, there is the question of a lack of a 'one stop shop'/ People developing video applications, TV applications, games etc need access to cross industry contacts and knowledge. we intend to provide that. We see this site as 'work in progress'/ In it's ultimate vision, we may evolve to a web services interface/common contracts for mulltiple channels to market and so on. But for now, its a 'showcase for innovative applications'
I seek your thoughts on how we could improve the prototype
Posted by ajit at 10:40 AM
October 3, 2005
world's fastest growing brands ..
forbes lists the fastest growing brands. This is a FAR more interesting list than the usual Coke and Mc Donalds. It's also indicative of the power of new media .. 7 out of 10 are new media brands!
1 Apple Over 400 million songs have been purchased at the iTunes store.
2 BlackBerry Users average a 53-minute-a-day productivity gain, says Research in Motion.
3 Google World's largest search engine sorts through 8 billion Web pages.
4 Amazon.com New service lets users pay $79 annually for unlimited shipping.
5 Yahoo New online music subscription service gives access to 1 million songs.
6 Ebay 150 million users are registered at the online auction site.
7 Red Bull Sponsors extreme-sports athletes and parties on college campuses.
8 Starbucks Opened four stores a day on average in 2004.
9 Pixar The Incredibles is the bestselling DVD of 2005 to date.
10 Coach Business in Japan now accounts for 22% of company sales.
Posted by ajit at 9:13 PM
Digital grannies and other trends:
I had the pleasure of reading the Sep 26 issue of Newsweek (International edition)
It has some excellent coverage on the future of entertainment – and I very much recommend you should read it
Here are the things from the feature which I found fascinating – alongwith my own thoughts on these where possible
The gaming granny
And we are not talking ‘Bingo’ here! Apparently, the BBC found a granny deeply engrossed in playing a multiplayer game (they don’t say which game unfortunately – love to know!). This example provided the BBC with fascinating insights into the minds of extreme users. Essentially, users are using the whole gamut of technology and new media in ways that cannot be predicted. Media companies are trying to understand how customers are interacting with their products.
Two important truths of 21st century media
Firstly, all news and entertainment are ‘personal’. This bit is well known and was not new to me. But, the second is – The internet changes the timeline of production, broadcast and consumption. This means, content can appear in all formats at once (unlike movie first, followed by DVD and so on). This model apparently maximises advertisement revenue and reduces piracy
The threat to the entertainment industry from yahoo et al ..
A well known theme as well. I can sum this up by - Yahoo knows exactly who downloaded the movie - the entertainment industry has no idea about who is in the movie theatre.
The importance of the editor
Google is a defacto editor – in the sense that Google controls which content is seen first. Thus, search engines are making judgements on art – are they qualified to do so? Is this not an objective(rule based) judgement as opposed to subjective judgement? Is such objective judgement suited for art?
More soon ..
Posted by ajit at 9:01 PM
October 1, 2005
uk content usage statistics
UK spent £750m in 2005 which is 18 times more than money spent three years ago.
According to a recent report from mintel(and reported in the metro newspaper - London) , demand for all downloads , apart from wallpapers and screen savers that make up a tenth of the sale, will double by January. Gambling which makes up 9% of the sales is expected to grow a staggering 367 percent.
Ringtones costing about £3 make a third of the sales
Games costing about £5 make a quarter of the sales
Thoughts
a) Not sure about the stats on gambling
b) Not sure why the numbers will double by Jan - agree that 3G is very much here now in europe but that still does not explain the 'doubling'
c) However, the current market stats are very useful
d) I expect that truetones will make the market for ringtones non existant except for the rights owners. Currently, many content companies are surviving on the back of ringtones(or adult content)
I wonder what channels are used for these downloads(especially the portal/off portal isssue) and which are the optimal channels?
Posted by ajit at 8:30 PM
September 20, 2005
Magnatune – the opensource approach to music - Is there a revenue model?
The background for this article is based on the article ‘Hear no evil’ from the special technology quarterly of the economist (www.economist.com) – Sep 17 2005.
The music industry, like many others, are feeling the full impact of new revenue models brought about by the Internet. The ipod and others have created a new distribution model. The next logical step is to reduce the power of the record labels by giving artists more power over their own work.
This is the goal of a company called magnatune(www.magnatune.com)
In a nutshell
a) Music is streamed free but to download it or to burn it on a CD, you have to pay
b) How much you pay – depends on what you decide – anything from $5 to $18
c) You can copy the music ie. There are no DRM restrictions. The overall idea being, people will not rip off artists they like
d) Artists are not contractually obligated to magnatune on an exclusive basis. They can sell their work elsewhere
e) Artists get half the revenue. In contrast other labels give 10%
All this sounds good ..
But ..
Because it’s a small company, it can’t afford to spend money on radio and TV advertising(which pushes sales). Thus, although the artist gets 50% - it’s not a lot of money because the total sales could be low
Worse .. if any of the artists get a contract from a ‘major’ they could jump ship!
So, the question is – will this model ever work? On first glance it sounds to be very interesting and disruptive but does it have within it the seeds of it’s own demise?
Finally, I think in an ironic twist, if the majors come along and pick the best artists, it would work in magnatune’s favour
Thus, the whole model may well work on holding a large number of titles each making a small number of sales
what are your thoughts?
Image source: http://www.mcpasd.k12.wi.us/~kms/Web_Clip_Art/images/MUSIC.jpg
Posted by ajit at 8:16 PM
September 18, 2005
another brick off the walled garden ..
from Ovum my comments below.
11:45 3 UK: another brick off the walled garden
Dario Betti
Mobile operator 3 UK is to give its subscribers mobile access to the Internet outside of its own 'walled garden' of products for the first time this month. From the end of September, 3 users will be able to pay £2.50 per month to download up to 5Mb of data from the Internet. However, access will still be restricted to sites that 3 has deemed "optimised for viewing on compatible video mobiles".
Comment: In 2003, at the time of launch, 3 had a very different strategy. It saw itself as a media company and wanted to be in complete control of what was on offer to its users. After its false start, 3 has re-focused its business more on voice tariffs and less on media services. Opening up the so-called walled garden is a necessary step: no single operator, even a large one, can offer the range of services that users might want. Also, it is good to offload some of the risk for new applications onto publishers. As long as the operator can charge for traffic and for billing, its business model is sound.
The service does not yet offer a complete web browsing experience. 3 only allows certain sites to be accessed on its handsets. The threat of bad user experience is very high: navigating the Internet on a mobile phone can be frustrating. We think that 3 is restricting access more to protect its users than to shield its own service line up. The operator says it will make 'hundreds' of such sites available in the coming months, and is offering users a chance to nominate those that they want to be made available.
However, 3 is not knocking down its walled garden, although it is taking one further step towards it. This is an add-on, paid-for service; only keen users will be attracted to it. The problem is how to charge for access to the worldwide web/WAP. In a prepaid dominated market, it should look at offering this in other packages and not just as a subscription. After all, other operators are already opening their portals or offering web browsing options. T-Mobile is counting on its 'web and walk' offer, O2 will launch the open garden i-Mode service, and Vodafone Live! intends to open up its off-portal access even more. This is an area to watch. Expect plenty of talk about walled gardens, open gardens and parks in 2006.
In many ways, 3 epitomises the walled gardens concept. While it seems to be getting some benefits commercially, like AOL, long term it will not work out. AOL, at least had access to exclusive content through the time Warner deal. 3 may need some such suitor. Even then, AOL was forced to open up and I predict so will 3. As the comments from Dario(ovum) below show – 3 is still way off from all the other operators and it’s just a matter of time before the walls break down completely
emailed to me by my good friend Lore Ridings of Prasada
Image courtesy : Pink floyd - the wall - a complete analysisA fascinating site - well worth a visit
Posted by ajit at 11:37 PM
September 12, 2005
nokiaone ..
This is cool ..
Originally saw it at the mobile-weblog
A must see presentation ..
Bit of science fiction and difficult to get right due to competing standards(especially Microsoft gunning in the same space) but I like the idea of the interfaces being simple and humanistic ..
Posted by ajit at 9:21 PM
September 11, 2005
the itunes phone , OpenGardens and a tale of two headlines ..
Hello all ..
As the apple / motorola itunes phone becomes a reality, it’s interesting to compare two headlines
Sep 7 2005 : Apple motorola and cingular unveil the itunes phone
BUT
April 21 2005 US mobile carriers shun itunes
So, what happened between these two headlines?
Why the change in heart?
I have long believed that the biggest threat to the existing vested interests in the mobile data industry is from outside the industry. Apple is one example of a new, disruptive entrant.
The 'service' of listening to music on the go can be fulfilled through more than one means(and consequently through more than one vendor). And herein lies the threat, predictable responses, break in the ranks(in this case Cingular) and consequent u-turn.
Lets start with the April story first(US carriers shun itunes)
A synopsis of the story (as applicable to us) is as follows:
All vendors are fighting over the same set of customers. Thus, the battle shifts to marketing(branding). Who is the stronger brand?
The carriers believe that they are stronger. The numbers speak for themselves at fiscal reporting per quarter: (Cingular - $8.2bn, Verizon $15bn in Q4 2004 but apple a measly $3.2bn).
So, is apple punching above its weight in terms of its brand?
That’s the real question and the real threat!
But let’s ask the people who really matter - the customers!
Apple is FAR bigger in customer mindshare than either verizon or cingular.
So, the balance of power shifts!
It shifts in Apple’s favour ..
Thus, the carriers are forced to come to the party(and its in everyone’s interest to do so)
So, predictable arguments have to be put aside.
These include .. as per the article .. "Operators want customers to download songs over the air, directly to handsets. But with the iPod phone, customers would download songs to a PC and then copy them to the phone,"
In other words .. a walled garden!!
But how feasible is it really? Even today you can resync to PCs, use memory cards etc. In other words, over the air download is not the only path! ..
Which brings us to the second headline i.e. Apple motorola and cingular unveil the itunes phone. Clearly, its in Motorola’s interest to partner with Apple .. but note that one operator(Cingular) has broken the ranks. Note also that it was the smaller operator in terms of quarterly revenues
With better technology and richer devices(like Nokia N91 on the horizon) – the stage is set for interesting times
What’s your take on this story?
My take is – this could be a huge opportunity for the entire industry. I have always believed that the mobile device could well be a focal point for digital convergence.
Seek thoughts
Image source: carphone warehouse
Posted by ajit at 8:59 AM
September 1, 2005
Oxford University next gen mobile applications panel ..
Hello all ..
I will be chairing the Oxford University Next Generation Mobile Applications Panel and I would like to invite you to it ..
Here is an outline..
The Next Generation Mobile Applications Panel will act as a showcase for the best thinkers in this space. It is a joint Oxford University initiative with industry under the Department of Continuing Education. Some of the companies already working with the Department of Continuing Education include Nokia,BT Group, NTT DoCoMo Inc, Vodafone, Hutchison 3G Ltd, T-Mobile, Orange, Intel, Motorola, Nortel Networks, Philips, Qinetiq and many more.
We will also seek to invite more companies.
It will be mainly online with potentially some offline meetings organised in future both at Oxford University and elsewhere in Europe/the UK . The backing of Oxford University ensures that it will be visible in the industry and has guaranteed funding for several years. Being funded by the University it is free for participants.
The concept is simple - you post a short article (similar to a blog), the members of the community will get an email about posted articles. The community comments on it. The best articles along with comments are posted on the main site(and will be published in a journal). This is a great way to build your personal brand globally under the auspices of the Oxford University and supporting companies.
At this stage, if you are interested, could you please let me know and I will send details later.
Kind regards
Ajit
Posted by ajit at 12:12 AM
August 21, 2005
mobcasting ..
I saw this on Russell Beatie's blog ..
Now you won’t have to remember to load up your iPod and grab your phone before leaving the house. You’ll be able to have your files on one device instead. The phone may not hold the thousands of hours of audio that a normal iPod holds, but it’ll be perfect for the day’s podcasts, no? And soon thereafter, streaming media over 3G networks and some “MobCasting” service that pops-up will be the Bloglines of podcast feeds, and you won’t have to even remember to sync. Then after you’ve got all that grokked, just wait until you’re watching Personal Videos from around the world on your phone instead. This is not far out stuff. This is all like 9 to 12 months away
Interesting post and confirms my view on mobile video podcasting as per my previous post HERE
Posted by ajit at 12:22 AM
August 7, 2005
mobile wifi, dual mode handsets and voip - my analysis
With the success of companies such as skype, VOIP is seen to be a 'hot' technology. Following the hype surrounding VOIP, 'mobile VOIP' is also caught up in the hype cycle.
The idea is simple - cellular calls could be made over an IP network -thus saving cost.
Currently, mobile VOIP is synonymous with 'voice over WiFi' i.e. voice calls made over a WiFi network. Although the WiFi network is growing fast, the world is far from being a 100% WiFi enabled space. This means, mobile VOIP suffers from the physical limitations of being near a WiFi hotspot.
The requirement of being near a WiFi hotspot plus the high cost of Mobile WiFi handsets, means that mobile WiFi is currently a niche technology. It's initial deployment is expected to be in the enterprise or within hotspots.
The real potential of mobile VOIP lies in the use of dual mode handsets. Dual mode handsets support the seamless handover between a cellular(in practise 3G and beyond) network and a WiFi network. The technologies used in this space are currently being defined for example - Unlicensed Mobile Access (UMA) and the Mobile Integrated Go-to-Market Network IP Telephony Experience (MobileIGNITE) alliance.
Predictably, the incumbents such as mobile operators, are reluctant to support mobile VOIP because it's a threat to their existing business(mobile voice calls). However, companies from outside the
existing value chain are keen to promote mobile VOIP. Most notably fixed line operators and handset manufacturers
However, the biggest barriers to the uptake of mobile VOIP is the pricing for IP traffic. I believe that the technology will really take off only when cheap, 'unlimited use' IP traffic becomes possible.
Thus, as with so many services in the mobile data industry, the barriers are not technological but commercial. There is no doubt that mobile VOIP will have a part to play in the evolution of mobility in general. Its eventual success and role will depend on a range of technical and commercial factors some of which are outlined above. However, its real significance lies in the fact that it will put a downward pressure on voice call prices (which is still the mainstay of income for mobile operators).
If cheap unlimited use bandwidth becomes a possibility then the market may well take off in other directions. For example - it could be possible to make voice calls from a 3G network through an IP client on the phone without going through a dual mode handset etc. The success of such schemes depends on low costs for IP traffic. However, note that the technology exists even today to make this possible.
Ironically, the mobile network itself is shifting to an IP core with technologies like IMS. When that happens, it should be possible to make end to end VOIP calls!
What's your view? Is this balanced enough or have I missed something?
Posted by ajit at 12:23 PM
August 3, 2005
ringtones - out of tune?
According to Richard windsor mobile analyst for Nomura research(and as reported in the FT on Aug 1), - rigntones are no longer ringing the tills ..
I am not surprised. Indeed with the rise of truetones, this was predictable because the income from content such as truetones is mainly going to the record labels leaving independent companies like infospace and monstermob out of the value chain.
As we have been saying in OpenGardens, there is a business alright here .. but its for the record owvers/brand owners/media players. Independent companies(even well funded ones such as infospace) do not have a viable business model unless they innovate.
Like mobile marketing before it, its possible that ringtones were a fad. Once the novelty wears off, usage drops.
I welcome this news because it displays a maturing industry. If companies like infospace are feeling the heat, so will the operators –forcing the industry as a whole to welcome new thinking
image source: www.crazy-frog.us/ crazy-frog.jpg
Posted by ajit at 11:21 PM
July 24, 2005
Is the network effect being hampered by broadcast content in the mobile data industry?
source: OpenGardensblog
The question I am considering here is :
In the mobile data industry, is the network effect being hampered by broadcast content?
A synopsis -
We first discuss the meaning of the two terms 'network effect' and 'broadcast content' and question if the requirements of these two are mutually contradictory. Finally, we outline the proposition that more openness will foster the network effect in the industry leading to viral applications.
a) what is Metcalfe's law or network effect?
The network effect, also known as Metcalfe's law(for the purposes of this discussion, we can use these two terms interchangeably) was the main driver behind the dot-com model. While Metcalfe's law has inevitably been tarred by the failure of the dot-com boom, the benefit of hindsight shows us that the network effect is indeed a valid phenomenon(albeit misapplied in the dot-com context)
According to wikipedia
The network effect causes a good or service to have a value to a potential customer dependent on the number of customers already owning that good or using that service. Metcalfe's law states that the total value of a good or service that possesses a network effect is roughly proportional to the square of the number of customers already owning that good or using that service.
S. J. Liebowitz and Stephen E. Margolis elaborate more in their paper Network Externalities (Effects) by giving an example of a fax machine. In effect, the value availed from a fax machine has two components - firstly the 'intrinsic value component' of a single fax machine but also 'the network effect component' i.e. value gained by other users using fax machines(i.e. the ability to communicate/network effect)
The concept of network effect is thus tied to the concept of 'critical mass' i.e. at a certain point called as the critical mass, the benefits gained from the 'network effect component' kick in and lead to huge competitive advantage and increased revenue. In short, a successful application. Until that happens, the full potential of the technology/service cannot be availed and the user base is confined only to early adopters. The dot com boom(and bust) adopted the above principle(which is valid) and added to it the concept of 'unprofitable enterprises' (which is invalid).
However, the benefits of network effect are not in doubt. In fact, with hindsight, we can see that network effect works(think success of ebay).
b) How does this phenomenon play out in the mobile data industry?
Clearly, if we find a set of applications/technologies that have a tendency to benefit from the network effect, we could all benefit. But sadly, at the moment - we see a number of 'failures' rather than successes. The key 'success' in terms of the benefits of network effect is the humble old SMS. In fact, the success of SMS(and also more broadly the success of GSM - which is a collaborative venture) shows that the industry indeed can 'get it right'.
c) How do we then explain the many failures(i.e. why do we see so few network effect applications?
Taking a step back, lets see what factors contribute to the proliferation of the 'network effect component'? The usual factors prevail - the service must be cheap, easy to use, the customers must want it .. and so on. But over and above all this .. the service must be 'interoperable' or 'capable of being viral'. In other words, it must be capable of spreading. If we introduce barriers to the spread of content - we kill it even before we even start. Forget about network effects!.
Take MMS - clearly this technology/service could benefit from the 'network effect' component. In simplest terms, it should be easy to 'share' content with other users. This means more people will take up MMS if they can firstly create their own content and secondly share that content(cheaply and easily). Creation of own content is possible via camera phones - sharing it cheaply and easily is far from possible!. So, who uses it(if at all)? Inevitably,it's early adopters who have found a better way(sharing images by bluetooth or email) but it's not the mainstream user.
If the benefits of the network effect are apparent from the Internet, why does the mobile data industry create so many barriers? Could it be because they are driven by the media/content industry with it's protectionist/broadcast/DRM mindset? Indeed, I believe that the requirements of the media/content industry are in contradiction to the 'network effect' application. In the former, you must restrict the free flow of content. In the latter, you must actively encourage the free flow of 'user created content'. Note this is not an argument for the 'napster mindset'. We are not advocating swapping of 'Hollywood's created content but rather seek to encourage the free flow of 'user created content'. At the moment, the restrictions put in place serve the media industry at the expense of the 'real customers' i.e. those who want to communicate. And this cripples the mobile data industry.
The mobile data industry must realise that it's far bigger than the 'song and dance' crew. We are a major communications platform and we must not let outdated business practises hamper the true potential of our industry.
At the moment, the industry is facing the media barons with it's back to the customer! It is driven by the 'broadcast content' model. The 'Lord of the rings' ringtone, 'Harry Potter' images and so on. All driven by the music industry/Hollywood. The chase for media dollars serves a short term goal. Operators must realise that they are the masters and not the slaves to the media industry.
When we speak to operators, they often naively talk of 'on portal/off portal' and insist that there are no walled gardens in the industry today. But that's very limited thinking. OpenGardens is in effect, a mindset which makes the rise of an application with a high 'network component' possible.
d) Extending this thinking further, my advice at the moment is to 'seek the network effect application' but focus on the 'multiple channels to market' to help build up sales for your new service.
Ultimately, when the mobile data industry will move beyond serving the media industry to serving their real customers, the industry will lend itself to applications that thrive on the network effect - and that will create an ecosystem to the next 'killer app'.
seek thoughts?
Image source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Network_effect.png
Posted by ajit at 9:44 PM
mobile statistics ..
Got this from the mobile weblog
Just shows that this is the industry to be in inspite of all the doom and gloom!
Reblogged from . Check out the statistics than start doing the math because mobile is without a doubt where the action is.
3 Billion Mobile Users by 2009?
There will be one billion handsets a year sold by 2009, with nearly 3 billion mobile users, says Gartner research.
They predict 779 million handset sales for 2005, versus
previous estimate of 750 million. Gartner predicts that the handset
sales will break the 1 billion per year barrier in 2009, when it says
there will be 2.6 billion mobiles in use.
In 2005, mobile phone sales will reach 779 million units, a 16 percent increase on 2004.
More than 100 million 3G phones will be sold in 2006.
More than 200 million smartphones will be sold in 2008.
Worldwide Mobile Terminal Sales, 1997 to 2009
(Millions of Units)
Source: Gartner Dataquest (July 2005)
"The sales volume cannot be attributed to one region in particular.
It's a truly global phenomenon," said Carolina Milanesi, principal
analyst at Gartner for mobile terminals. "In mature markets like Europe
and North America, subscribers are still buying replacement phones. In
emerging markets like Brazil and India, new customers are signing up
for mobile services at an even faster rate."
Original source: mobile weblog
Posted by ajit at 1:58 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 21, 2005
the feature archives are here ..
This is great. For all who miss the feature .. HERE are the archives.
Posted by ajit at 9:39 PM
July 19, 2005
OpenGardens and Metcalfe's law
This section reflects our thinking for the next version of OpenGardens. It is an excerpt from the first chapter
Introduction
A few months ago, we were approached by a company that had created 'an interesting mobile application'. They were eager to demonstrate it to us.
They hoped that we would be able to advise them on the best way to deploy the application to mobile operator portals. It was pitched as 'unique' and 'viral'. We were intrigued enough to meet them.
Functionally and technically, the application worked perfectly. However, it was based on sending MMS (Multimedia messaging service) messages to any other phone in the country. They believed that since MMS had been around for some time now, it was a mature technology. In addition, a majority of new phones today are camera enabled. So, they believed that the future of MMS was secure. They even had a report from a top tier consulting company indicating that by year 20??, 90% of phones would have the required MMS capability. All this made them believe that they had a 'mass market' application.
They had 'tested' it on a set of phones. We noticed that the same phone model was used to test the application in sending and receiving the message. We also noticed that all the phones being tested were on connections from the same mobile operator(carrier).
A lot of money had been spent already in development, testing and a set of 'advisors'.
Much to their dismay, we felt that this application could not be deployed in the near future. Sadly, this scenario is common with so many applications that we see today. So much so - that helping new companies to avoid similar errors is one of the chief motivations behind OpenGardens.
OpenGardens
Leaving aside technical issues(sending MMS messages to any phone) there are two fundamental problems
a) For a 'viral' application (think 'hotmail') you need favourable conditions for the network effect/metcalfe's law to thrive and
b) The Mobile operator portal is often not the best channel to market. It would potentially be a lot more profitable to explore other channels to market.
These two problems crystallise the rationale behind OpenGardens.
Written for the applications developer, OpenGardens draws on our extensive experience of working with emerging mobile data applications(our online/offline communities span more than 3500 developers from more than 26 countries at last count).
We are believers in it's true potential. And it does have tremendous potential - as yet untapped. But, there are many pitfalls. It's easy to get seduced by the mobile data industry. After all, the Internet was a goldmine - so why not the Mobile Internet? - goes the train of thought. This superficial comparison ignores many things - the first being that the Internet has been around for more than twenty-five years and it's really only in the last ten years that we have seen the entire 'Internet economy'. Secondly - the success of many applications on the Internet(hotmail, paypal, ebay etc) have been powered by the 'network effect'.
Sadly, at the moment, the mobile data industry is not conducive to the emergence of the network effect(in a majority of cases).
Take the case of MMS - it's not very easy to send an MMS message across operators. The costs of doing so are unclear. The minimum data sizes supported are not very well publicised. In addition, it's physically not easy to send the MMS message. So, whatever the pundits say .. it's far from viral.
In light of the above(no network effect), there are two things you could do.
Either - you give up on the industry for now (in which case you are reading the wrong book :) ) or you reconsider that the industry has potential to be a trillion-dollar industry.
This brings us to the second facet of OpenGardens - It's important to understand 'channels to market' to complement the current industry fragmentation.
In other words, our goals should be to firstly understand the various channels to market which could be used to deploy our application(so that some revenue starts to come in) and at the same time keep a lookout for sectors of the industry displaying the network effect.
In effect, the philosophy of OpenGardens encourages the emergence of the network effect in the mobile data industry. The word 'OpenGardens' is the philosophical opposite of the often prevalent 'walled gardens' mentality in the industry.
So, we have to understand two things – firstly the ‘network effect’ and secondly ‘channels to market’.
Let’s start with understanding the network effect.
Metcalfe’s law and the network effect
According to www.wikipedia.com
The network effect causes a good or service to have a value to a potential customer dependent on the number of customers already owning that good or using that service. Metcalfe's law states that the total value of a good or service that possesses a network effect is roughly proportional to the square of the number of customers already owning that good or using that service. One consequence of a network effect is that the purchase of a good by one individual indirectly benefits others who own the good - for example by purchasing a telephone a person makes other telephones more useful. This type of side-effect in a transaction is known as an externality in economics, and externalities arising from network effects are known as network externalities. This is also an example of a positive feedback loop.
What does Metcalfe’s law mean for us in the mobile data industry?
While we talk of ‘customer created content being king’ – we make sharing of that content very difficult on the mobile device. Yes, you may be using a camera phone – but it’s increasingly difficult to share your pictures via MMS for the reasons outlined before. Let’s go one step further, you are in a ‘walled garden’. Thus you can create your own content but you can’t share it with anyone outside that wall. Ho – hum!
The one instance where the network effect works in the mobile data industry is – SMS(Short messaging service). It’s cheap, it’s simple, ALL content is user created, it’s price is known in advance, almost all phones support it and in most cases(at least in Europe) – you can send and receive an SMS message from anyone on any network.
There are very few ‘barriers’ to SMS. SMS is an example of creation of a successful ecosystem using the OpenGardens mindset. The OpenGardens mindset calls for a breakdown of barriers to foster uptake i.e. creation of an ecosystem where it’s possible to deploy an application that has the potential to benefit from the network effects. This means removal of physical barriers(inability to send MMS messages to subscribers of other operators) and psychological barriers(not knowing the cost of a service in advance).
New mobile applications based on Metcalfe’s law
Ahh .. But isn’t the network effect/metcalfe’s law tarred with the dotcom fiasco?
While it’s true that the network effect was presumably behind many a ‘dot com’ business model – we now have the benefit of hindsight with the passage of a few years.
Network effects were often misunderstood with economies of scale(or worse still brand protection). Economies of scale arise from lowering costs of production as volumes increase. Brands, on the other hand, rely on trust. Network effects are neither of these. Network effects rely on interoperability and increasing usage base with each new user benefiting from the collective heritage of the older users who used the service.
How can this thinking be applied to the mobile ecosystem? Consider an application like a ‘mobile recommendation search engine’. A mobile recommendation search engine’ is a community based system that rates products and services which you could access from any mobile device.
This application could benefit from network effects i.e. as more people use the system, the more frequent and better the recommendations.
It would still be necessary for other factors to be favourable(for example costs being pre determined) but if conditions are favourable, such an application could gain a significant competitive advantage.
The impact of ignoring OpenGardens/network effects ..
Sadly, the industry is yet to appretiate the full potential of the OpenGardens / network effect. The old ‘walled gardens’ mentality proliferates. Content – is viewed as ‘broadcast content’ not ‘user created content’. This brings DRM and other restrictions to the user experience. The fundamental assumptions in this case are often wrong. As richer content types emerge – there is an attempt to ‘bolt on’ the old to the new. We see that with ‘mobile TV’. It’s debatable if customers want to see TV and movies on small handheld screens. Yet, the movie industry is already worried about the emergence of a new napster in this space!
This is old thinking – with very little added value. However, as the industry matures, we are optimistic that more OpenGardens thinking will become mainstream.
Posted by ajit at 9:29 PM
July 13, 2005
Mobile video podcasting: The killer app for mobile video?
Mobile video podcasting: The killer app for mobile video?
Extract
Written from first principles, the article explores the potential impact of mobile video technology. I propose that mobile video podcasting(for the lack of a better word) will emerge as the killer app for mobile video.
Background
In the financial times in Tuesday June 21 (London), there was a statement from McKinsey (Global management consultancy) :
"The basis for content on the Internet is shifting from text to video".
I believe that the mobile Internet is also mirroring this seminal shift. As with many significant developments, this one has been creeping quietly upon us and suddenly it’s a bandwagon! However, unlike traditional hype(vapourware), for once, there is a definite date to watch - June 9, 2006, - the soccer world cup in Germany. This event is billed as the grand showcase for mobile video. For the first time, it will be possible to view video clips of the world cup on your advanced mobile phones.
Video content(movies, TV programs etc) is fast becoming digitised and thus deployable over different technologies. There is a lot of buzz(and some might say hype) around mobile video/TV. According to consultancy Strategy Analytics , mobile broadcast networks will have acquired around 51 million users worldwide by 2009, producing around $6.6bn (£3.5bn) in revenue.
As the above statistic shows, many in the industry discuss ‘Mobile TV’ and ‘Mobile Video’ in conjunction with each other focussing perhaps on mobile TV – more than mobile video. However, ‘mobile video’, is the technology and ‘Mobile TV’ is just one application of this technology. In fact, discussing Mobile TV and Video together trivialises the potential of Mobile Video. It gives the impression that the two are synonymous. In other words, it gives the impression that the only application of mobile video is mobile TV. As we discuss below, that’s not quite true and I believe that the biggest application of Mobile video will be ‘mobile video podcasting’ (for the lack of a better word).
Significantly, the entire value chain is being affected ranging from mobile operators, handset manufacturers, broadcasters to content creators. Also, new value chains are being created in the industry. Consider these examples of recent industry activity
· Fixed line operators like BT are launching trials of IPTV.
· Search engines like google and yahoo are extending search to video.
· Mobile networks are working with streaming video.
· VCs are funding start-ups like blinkx to enable audio and video search
· Triple play is the new buzz word which providers aspire to(i.e. providing online access, telephony and television)
· Takeout TV in Korea is getting some industry attention
· Media players like Fox entertainment are launching Mobisodes
Amongst all this, it’s debatable if customers are actually willing to pay for mobile TV. Naïve commentators have already written it off on the grounds that ‘we don’t know if customers will pay for it. Hence it may end up like MMS etc etc’
Once again, they are confusing technology with application.
Mobile TV is getting some media interest because it is getting interest from content owners like the movie and television companies. Customers may or may not be interested in watching TV/movie clips on mobile phones. Mobile TV follows the traditional broadcast model – which means transmitting information to consumers who are passively expected to consume whatever they are being fed. Some providers are trying to make it ‘free’ by ad sponsorship. It’s debatable if people will want to watch ads in a small video clip. It’s further debatable as to what is ‘free’ – in the sense that the customer still pays for data charges which could be significant(we will come back to this later).
Understanding Mobile video technology
To understand the true potential of mobile video – we have to separate it from mobile TV and look at the underlying technology. There are two main competing technologies in this space - Digital Multimedia Broadcasting ( DMB) ) and Digital Video Broadcasting - Handheld ( DVB-H ).
It’s no coincidence that they both have the word ‘broadcasting’ in their acronym. The first thing to understand about mobile video is – it is indeed broadcasting.Mobile video can be viewed similar to an FM radio receiver on the mobile device. It can receive any compatible transmission.
The receiver can ‘pick up’ any transmission – i.e. it does not have to come through the mobile operator. This feature makes mobile video a disruptive technology. Similar to technologies like Bluetooth and WIFI - mobile video may not necessarily generate revenue for the mobile operator. Thus, it has found more enthusiastic initial support amongst the handset manufacturer community than the mobile operator community.
However, the broadcast(one to many) model could be complemented by the personalization (one to one) model made possible by 3G. For example – a video of a race could be seen via broadcast but interactive betting would be possible via 3G.
As we mentioned above, the main two technologies being developed in this space are DMB and DVB-H. DMB (digital media broadcast) is deployed in Korea with some support outside of Korea. DVB-H (digital video broadcast - handheld) is popular in Europe. Besides these, there are others such as ISDB-T (integrated services digital broadcast - terrestrial) in Japan and standards being developed in China.
DMB and DVB-H come from different backgrounds – each having advantages and disadvantages. DMB is based on the DAB(Digital audio broadcast) standard which itself is already deployed in many countries. DVB-H, on the other hand is based on DVB-T (Digital Video Broadcasting - Terrestrial) standard that is used for digital television. Each technology has it’s supporters and detractors. Whichever technology proliferates in a particular geography, mobile video itself seems to be a promising application(to re-emphasise once again – mobile video is not the same as mobile TV).
Ofcourse, video could reach handsets over other technologies – 3G, WIFI and so on. However, the industry seems to be favouring a broadcast solution. Besides the choice of technology itself, there are other issues such as DRM and copy protection. The actual experience(and cost) of downloaded video clips is yet to be determined. Thus, the technology exists. But content, pricing, DRM issues remain.
So, what could mobile video technology be used for? Consider that it has a viral element to it(since content does not necessarily need to go through an Operator). Hence, my bet is – Mobile video podcasting.
What is podcasting?
According to Wikipedia(www. Wikipedia.com), ‘Podcasting is a method of publishing files via the Internet, allowing users to subscribe to a feed and receive new files automatically. It became popular in late 2004, intended largely for downloading audio files onto a portable MP3 player. However, listening to podcasts does not require a portable player and it is not traditional "broadcasting" to a mass audience at a fixed time.’
Podcasting is a portmanteau word, combing "broadcasting" with the name of Apple Computer's iPod audio player (although podcasting was not invented by Apple, nor do podcasts require a portable player or Apple software).
It is distinct from other types of online audio delivery because of its subscription model, which uses the RSS 2.0 file format. Podcasting enables independent producers to create self-published, syndicated "radio shows," and gives broadcast radio programs a new distribution channel. Listeners may subscribe to feeds using "podcatching" software (a type of "aggregator"), which periodically checks for and downloads new content. Some podcatching software is also able to synchronise (copy) podcasts to portable music players. Any digital audio player or computer with audio-playing software can play podcasts. The same technique can deliver video files, and by 2005 some aggregators could play video as well as audio.’
The very last sentence alludes to the concept we are discussing – i.e. the ability to manage video content.
It is an intuitive step to consider a personalised ‘video channel’ – broadcast(podcast) by an individual and downloaded by interested subscribers.
Creation and publication of content have become easier. Hence, more people are creating and distributing their own content. If mobile video can be positioned as the optimal(cheapest, easiest) method to acquire video content – then many more providers may adopt the medium.
While RSS has potential to deploy content(an RSS feed could be automatically updated – keeping the content fresh) – the biggest problem with RSS at the moment is – it will use the 3G radio network. This means, IP charges will have to be paid. That’s not the case for mobile video(which is not transmitted over the 3G network).
In the last OpenGardens event , I naively asked Mike Selby(Nokia Global VP) – ‘Can anyone set up a TV broadcasting station?’ Obviously not! There are a ton of regulations to stop you. But … Here is my train of thought ..
a) Can anyone set up a ‘podcasting’ station? – Yes – already being done
b) Can video be a part of podcasting? Yes – most definitely
c) Can RSS be the conventional method of broadcasting video on mobile devices? – probably not because of IP charges
So, I leave you with the question – can mobile video be used to achieve ‘mobile video podcasting’? My view is YES – because - conceptually, it’s not a big leap from podcasting and further, it does not involve IP charges over the telecoms netwok. I seek your views.
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Copyright © Ajit Jaokar – www.opengardensblog.futuretext.com
Posted by ajit at 8:19 PM
July 3, 2005
The mobile Internet will do more for Africa than live 8!
On a day when Africa is in the news .. here is a different perspective based on my own experience. It reflects my views - especially the ability of individuals to make a difference when they have access to knowledge.
I saw this phenomenon first in India in the early 90s when I was living in India. At that time, India was in the throes of a 'cable' revolution. Mind you, there was no ‘ministry’, which had sanctioned this. It was a grassroots phenomenon. I remember the local video shop owner suddenly started adding 'cable' to his offerings. And he was not the only one. Every colony(a group of buildings) had it's own network. The legality of it all was suspect (although today it's all pretty much corporate and legal).
The point is though, people were getting access to information(and this was not the government sanctioned media). Even in the smallest village - you could see 'MTV' - which was a bizarre phenomenon in some ways. More importantly, the villages had yellow PCO booths. So, you could call anywhere in the world.
Again more connections - more information.
This was early 90s. Today India is a force to reckon in technology
Is there a connection between people, technology and wealth?
I believe that there is ... Which brings us to Africa ..
Lets contrast two bits of news.
A couple of weeks ago, Simpay (www.simpay.com) collapsed.
Simpay was a European mcommerce initiative. Typically on a grand scale - top down - with the big operators all 'solidly' behind it. It collapsed like a pack of cards when one operator pulled out. The end was so quick that many did not believe it.
But mcommerce itself if far from dead.
And where does it survive?
You would not guess - but it's Africa.
According to the feature(www.thefeature.com) (no link exists - so I don’t know the author)
Although many Western research companies still stick to the idea that mobile usage remains the preserve of the relatively well off, many countries in Africa are showing through prepaid, handset sharing and the sheer desire to own a mobile despite having very little income, that mobile service can reach all parts of the populace. The great advantage for m-banking in African countries is that the conflicts between the stakeholders simply don't exist in the same way as in Europe and the West. Most of those players have little or no current business in the area, and see m-banking as an opportunity, rather than a threat, to their business models.
The lack of existing vested interests(and for that matter an existing ecosystem itself) is creating a whole new value chain.
A company called celpay offers mobile phone-based virtual bank accounts with features like account transfers, bill payments, cash deposits etc. It has created a large retail base (shops, petrol stations etc) who will accept these transactions.(cellpay uses a solution from a South African company called fundamo
Also according to the feature
Celpay has also developed successful m-banking business services. This includes mobile phone-based order entry with cash on delivery payment functionality. Current users include Coca-Cola, breweries and a cement manufacturer. In DRC (Democratic republic of Congo) alone, there were over 80,000 transactions per day on the Celpay system in November 2004.
Read that last statistic again .. 80,000 transactions per day! - in the democratic republic of Congo!!
There is another big boom in voucherless topups
The agent simply enters the subscriber's mobile number, amount of credit needed and the agent's pin and the subscriber's account is topped up.
The irony is .. the only other place where m-commerce is booming well is in the worlds most advanced markets for mobility - Japan and Korea. For example - in Japan, NTT docomo and Sony are running the felica trials
There are not many subjects where you can mention Japan and Democratic republic of Congo in the same context.
Ahh .. but you say .. Africa is not China(or Japan, or India or Singapore)
There is no culture of entrepreneurship.
That’s not quite true
According to GEM(Global entrepreneurship monitor) ..
Uganda has the highest Total Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) of all countries participating in GEM 2003. The TEA of 29.2 indicates that almost every third adult Ugandan is an entrepreneur. In comparison, the World average is only 8.8.
So .. it's possible
This leads me to make the statement .. the mobile internet(and m-commere) will do more for Africa than anything else(commendable as these efforts always are). In fact, m-commerce is just the medium. The real people doing the work are the people of Africa.
Soon, they will learn from the Philippines and get rid of governments that do not serve them. Information will be impossible to contain
If Bill Gates' dream was to have a PC on each desk running Microsoft software .. then EVERY person in the world could well have a mobile device(although they may not have a PC)That could do wonders for many countries in Africa - both commercially and politically.
Posted by ajit at 10:59 PM
July 2, 2005
video shortcodes: how do they work
I have been researching this topic now for the next version of OpenGardens and Nick Ris presents a fascinating insight on this subject
I have reproduced a section from his site(full link below)
In the context of openness .. video short codes are fascinating - and in a sector of the industry which IMHO is on the verge of take off
"3G Video Short Codes" vs. "3G Video Streaming using the Data Channel"
In the 3G environment, it is possible to view Video Content using two alternative channels:
Using the data channel - "3G Video Streaming"
This is in effect offering a WAP-like portal (e.g. the 3UK portal, Vodafone Live!, Orange Kiosk etc., or a Java application that acts as a portal), through which an end user can navigate in order to eventually find the content they are looking for. Network operator portals use the data channel.
Using the circuit switched video call channel - "3G Video Short Codes"
This is the MX Telecom Video Gateway offering as described above, which uses the circuit switched video call channel and allows the end user to view video content simply by dialling a number and pressing the video call button on their handset.
The benefits of the video call channel over using the data channel are clear:
Simplicity - Dialling a short code and pressing one button is much simpler than having to type in or go to a URL and navigate through a portal, to eventually find the relevant content, and then download it on to the phone.
Per Minute Billing - This is not available when using the data channel (which is based purely around "per event billing"), but obviously is available for Video Short Codes, which offer both per minute billing and drop charges, as well as free-phone and standard rate tariffs.
Return Video Path - The camera in the end user's phone is always passing a live camera feed back, which can be used for many applications - for example, dating services and video conferencing.
Quality of Service - Guaranteed bandwidth is available for a video call, unlike video streaming, ensuring quality of service. This means that, as opposed to video streaming, the video call picture quality will not degrade when a cell gets busy.
Digital Rights Management - There are no DRM issues associated with video content accessible through the MX Telecom Video Gateway as content cannot be saved or recorded on to the 3G handset. If content providers wish to allow users to access content after viewing it on their handset, they can send the end user a URL (via an SMS or WAP Push message) through which to access the content.
No need to download a viewer - Some companies have written Java Applications to stream content to an end user's 3G phone. The main problem with this lies with the fact that the end user needs to order the Java application (usually via SMS), download it onto the phone, save it, install it and finally load it. This cumbersome procedure is not user friendly and can be very confusing to the average consumer - most of whom fail to successfully install and use such Java applications.
With video calls, there is no such problem - again, the user simply dials a number on their 3G phone and all the functionality that a Java player would offer is available through the menu of options (IVR) available during a video call.
full link HERE
Posted by ajit at 10:40 PM
June 30, 2005
A sad day with a silver lining ..
Hello all ..
A sad day for the industry today ..
The feature (www.thefeature.com) closed today
This site has long been the home page on my browser and its one of the best I have seen
There are two reasons why thefeature will be a loss to the industry ..
Firstly, it's excellent - unbiased content. (I have to look for a new home page now!)
But the second reason is more important ..
Few knew that thefeature was owned by Nokia and to Nokia's credit - it was always impartial
In that sense it was a pioneer along the lines of the cluetrain manifesto It was one of the best examples of a company(in this case Nokia) - engaging with the community without the usual PR spiel. It is a manifestation of the 'trusted network' concept and I am glad to see it succeed for so long. Sadly, can't think of any other corporate examples along these lines.
Many people I know were a part of the feature - and compliments to them all. Justin Pearse, Tomi Ahonen, Tom Hume, Russell Buckley and Carlo Longino(editor)
And the silver lining ..
Russell Buckley and Carlo Longino (ex editor of the feature) are starting a new blog. Early stages but I think its an interesting development for the industry. see the blog HERE
Watch this space!
Kind Regards
Ajit
Posted by ajit at 9:06 PM
June 29, 2005
mobile adwords from alatto ..
furthur to my post on mobile adwords, John whelan of alatto informs us that ..
We have "mobile adwords" up and running already with 4 operators with our Tribes product in Europe.
See screen dumps below for illustration:
John Whelan
Direct: +353 1 209 0787
Mobile: +353 87 683 8850
www.alatto.com
I have known John and Alatto for a while and tribes is an interesting
product that I am watching keenly.
The NMA says about tribes ..
WAP preference service trials show session times up fourfold
By Nic Howell
Mobile multimedia specialist Alatto is claiming to have quadrupled WAP session times in trials for its Tribes content discovery service with four European network operators.
Alatto has been trialling Tribes with O2 Ireland, Tele.ring in Austria, Telfort in the Netherlands and Orange-owned Mobistar in Belgium. The average length of WAP sessions during these trials has been over ten minutes. "Tribes makes WAP sticky," said Alatto co-founder John Whelan.
As first mentioned in NMA (24.03.05), Tribes is designed as a platform for viral content sharing. It installs a three-button toolbar on the first scroll of WAP screens so users can store sites they like and forward links to friends.
When users receive a link they inherit the browsing preferences of the sender, which are updated as they click on links. When they find sites they like, Alatto's algorithms forward sites that are similar.
The service is hosted by Alatto, which provides an administration interface to operators. "There's no integration required," Whelan explained. "Operators can start increasing their WAP traffic right away."
alatto.com
Posted by ajit at 5:55 AM
June 26, 2005
I have got a new 6680 - my first 3g phone!
I have got a new Nokia 6680 today and its on '3'!
My first time with '3' and a bit of an irony considering my work on OpenGardens!
I think its a fantastic phone and '3's video features are of interest.
So, now I am truly 'IP enabled' Nokia 6680 and a blackberry 7200
Thanks to recommendations from Tomi Ahonen(as if you would expect that crazy finn to recommend anything other than Nokia!) and Tom Weiss
A good review from Russell Beatie HERE
A full set of features as per below. Quite impressive!
A full fledged 3G phone
Nokia link: HERE
Posted by ajit at 8:24 PM
June 23, 2005
OpenGardens event - July 4 - mobile TV/video - Nokia global VP - Mark Selby
We hold regular OpenGardens events in London. If you can make it, please let me know. There is no cost for the event.
At the last OpenGardens event, Tony Fish mentioned that we have a special speaker on a mobile TV/video for the next event. So, here we are .. I am sure you will agree with us - it has been worth the wait!!
Mark your diary:
Date July 4 2005. 6pm onwards
Venue - central London - to be announced.
Speaker : Mark Selby - Global Vice President - Multimedia Business Programs - Nokia.
Mark's responsibilities include DVB-H (Mobile TV), music, radio and video services and devices. As many of us know, Nokia is making a huge push for mobile video with DVB-H and Mark is heading this vision.
In the financial times in Tuesday(London), there was a statement from McKinsey (Global management consultancy)
"The basis for content on the Internet is shifting from text to video". The mobile internet is also mirroring this seminal shift. So, this is an event on a major topic in the industry by a world leading expert
I believe that this will be another great event following in the footsteps of the previous events(Tomi Ahonen, Mike Short, Tom Weiss).
Please email me if you are interested in attending
Mark's profile as below
kind regards
Ajit
Mark Selby
Mark Selby is Global Vice President of Multimedia Business Programs at Nokia. His responsibilities include DVB-H (Mobile TV), music, radio and video services and devices.
Mark Selby has worked in the communications industry for over 20 years. Prior to joining Nokia in May 2004, he was Senior Vice President at Mark McCormack’s IMG, responsible for the group’s mobile activities in sports, entertainment, TV, radio and online, including rights and production. IMG is the world’s leading sports marketing company and the largest independent sports TV producer through it’s TWI subsidiary.
Mark was formerly Founder and CEO of Mobile Channel Network, which produced a range of mobile data content services including Essential Sports, MTV mobile, Big Brother and Mobile Ibiza. He has worked closely with many rights holders, including Manchester United and Liverpool Football Clubs, the International Rugby Board, International Olympic Committee, musicians, athletes and models.
Mark’s previous roles include President of Solid Information Technology, Executive Director Health On the Net Foundation, President Internet Society, Geneva, radio producer and presenter at WRG-FM, board member of Linux International and senior executive roles at Digital Equipment Corp. and Xerox. He was appointed Expert to the European Commission on EDI in 1987.
Posted by ajit at 8:53 PM
mobile google adwords?
With the forthcoming google IPO and launch of competing offerings from Microsoft and others, search is a hot topic. By extension, mobile search is also in the spotlight
Search on a mobile device is a function of mobility. On the Internet, search often leans to research i.e. finding information relevant to completing a task on the computer. In contrast, Mobile search is oriented towards a specific task (problem) that the user faces when they are typically NOT working on a computer. For example - a potential scenario could be – they are shopping or travelling.
Traditional search engines do not deliver answers. Instead they deliver results that point to an answer. In other words, the user must in turn click on one (or more) links to identify an answer to the specific problem/question that they face. This approach does not work very well with a mobile device.
In contrast, a service like ‘Google answers http://answers.google.com/answers/’ is a lot more useful on a mobile device.
But, the real question is – what happens beyond the ‘answer’?
On the web, the search engine(and not the portal) is the first port of call. If a search engine becomes the first point of contact on a mobile device, what can the user do after they have got the answer?
It’s not inconceivable to visualise ‘mobile adwords’.
You can bet google is likely to be working on ‘adwords’ for mobile. In my view, this would democratise the industry and open up the market significantly. It would also mirror the net and also for the creation and access of many more services over the mobile device.
Note that this is FAR bigger than optimising pages for WAP/XHTML sites or transcoding WAP sites(http://mobile.google.com/mobile_search.html). The possibility of mobile adwords is truly intriguing and could make a huge difference to the market
Posted by ajit at 6:53 AM
June 21, 2005
MMS message sizing for video ..
Following on from my previous blog, the mystery of the MMS size continues ..
Alfie from the mobile apps club (working for streamuk) believes that 'they charge 25p for a message below 49.99 kb, and 50p for anything over.'
and
The networks will generally fail anything above 100/140kb, and that's where Orange are really failing their customers with this marketing push.
exactly my thoughts ..
Sure, ok, you can send video by mms, nothing new there, but you will still be hampered by this size limit. Nowhere on that page does orange tell it's customers that 90% of all video files they try and send are going to fail.
I really must check out the standards. I also suspect this will work between Orange to Orange and Orange to a web site(mobile blogging). Its still interesting to see a price point for MMS - although there are some clarifications needed in my view
Posted by ajit at 11:45 PM
June 19, 2005
packet fees: boon or bane for mobile multiplayer games
I found this fascinating article on mobenta. Being a fan of multiplayer games(mobile) and a big believer in their potential - like everyone else I thought Japan was the place to be for mobile multiplayer games. Not so it seems. (and I am happy to know that my yearly pilgrimage to Korea is well founded!)
Matthew Bellows says on Mobenta/WGR
Then he (the SEGA rep in Japan) conceded that only a couple thousand people had registered for the
service. The primary reason? Packet fees. Mobile data transmission in Japan
is ludicrously expensive. Sending one megabyte over the Vodafone
Japan network costs approximately $22.18, (although discounts will
be offered for higher-volume customers). As Mr. Ikeda from Hudson
Soft put it, "We would like to have a networked version of
Bomberman, but data transmission fees are a big problem. Players
discover their $400 phone bill at the end of the month and call us
for a refund. So many people were angry that we stopped making
network games." Satomi Imai at Dwango expressed the hope that flat-
rate data plans would come to Japan with widespread 3G, and those
plans would enable customers to spend more time connected. But
Square Enix, while announcing Final Fantasy for DoCoMo FOMA phones,
made it clear that these were single player games. Square isn't
building price drops into their development plan.
Contrast Japan with South Korea. Per megabyte fees for data
transmission are approximately $2.69 on LG Telecom and $4.49 with
KTF. Even more interestingly, Com2Us reported this week that
operators share as much as 60% of the data revenue associated with
multiplayer mobile games with the game developer. As you would
expect, mobile multiplayer games, from traditional card games to
massively multiplayer RPGs, are booming in Korea.
We in Europe have yet to cross this bridge - but it provides insightful lessons. Everyone loses if rates are not oriented to making people pay. People will recieve a $400 only once!
Once again, it shows why Korea is the one to watch
Image source: wgamer
Posted by ajit at 10:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
June 17, 2005
OpenGardens manifesto: Part two
Following on from OpenGardens Manifesto : Part One Here is part two
Before we start discussing the impact of OpenGardens, lets first see what do we mean by the terms ‘walled gardens’ and ‘OpenGardens’.
Walled Gardens
What is a walled garden? What are the 'bricks in the wall' i.e. the elements that make up a walled garden?
A walled garden is any mechanism for a provider (not just a Mobile operator) to restrict the user experience by confining the user to a specific region / space as defined by the provider. The rationale is - the user is served better and the service is more profitable for the provider. In an Internet/Mobile environment, this can often take the guise of restricted browsing but has other facets as we see below.
From a developer perspective, a walled garden could mean 'restricted access', i.e. - your application in some way cannot access all customers OR the provider's application has access to some features that you cannot access. These restrictions can be commercial or technical.
Thus, walled gardens can be a set of restrictions created by a provider and placed on users or applications. These are aimed at confining the user to a set of features controlled by the provider.
Walled gardens are not new. One of the best-known instances was the early AOL (www.aol.com). On an extreme case, in the early days, users could not email others outside AOL! (remember this was only about eight years ago). However, the early users liked these restrictions since there was the perception of 'the big bad world out there' and AOL was deemed to be a trusted provider. As users matured, they realised that the restrictions were often a hindrance and ultimately, there are lot less restrictions now on AOL. However, even today, AOL users have a different experience of the World Wide Web. It's debatable if it's better of not - but it's certainly different.
In the mobile data industry, walled gardens have been associated with the Mobile Network Operator. The Mobile Network Operator has some elements that lend it considerable power. These include
a) A large customer base
b) Knowledge of the subscriber's location
c) Billing relationship to the customer and
d) Customer services and marketing reach
There are others especially on the voice side but these elements are critical for data applications. In addition, on the Operator’s portal, the Operator has the ability to control the positioning of the application on the menu, which is yet another 'Brick in the wall'.
Extending the concept even further - Operators are not the only ones in the walled gardens game. Brands are often in collusion. A friend uses the colourful and insightful expression 'Elephants mate with elephants'. This means the large content providers of the world may well have done deals with the large Mobile operators leaving little scope for the smaller player. There is already evidence of this with some content deals in Europe. Many in the industry blame the Mobile Operators for creating a walled garden. Walled gardens restrict the potential slew of applications that could be possible if everyone were allowed to create any application and users of a system had total freedom to choose any service inside or outside that system.
The issue of walled gardens first arose with WAP (Wireless access protocol) phones, which are used to "browse" content. It arose due to a specific legal situation with a European Mobile operator who prevented users from changing the default settings on their phone. This means, users always started with a specific WAP site (i.e. home page) as directed by the Mobile Operator and further they could not change the home page itself. While this model was commercially appealing to the Mobile Operator and also the advertisers, it was not conducive to the small developer. A developer successfully appealed against the Mobile operator and won. In retrospect, the whole issue seems irrelevant in the case of WAP - because for various reasons, consumers never used WAP sites in large numbers.
So, do walled gardens exist? While the 'hardcoded WAP home page' does not, there are indeed other ways to create restrictions. A true OpenGardens(the philosophical opposite of the walled garden – as we shall see below) ecosystem would exist if 'all applications had a level playing field'. Where 'menu positioning' seems to be the most obvious 'choke point', there are other ways to cripple applications belonging to external developers specifically if they are denied equal access to certain resources for example location information.
Finally, as we leave the topic of walled gardens it’s important to remember that even when they do exist – they do not stand the test of time. Coming back to AOL, it appears that walled gardens become irrelevant as the medium matures. We believe this will happen in the Mobile data industry, i.e. it is not possible to predict in advance as to what content/applications a user may want. Not forgetting, of course, that user preferences change over time.
OpenGardens
OpenGardens is the philosophical opposite of a walled garden. The phrase covers more than the ‘on portal/off portal’ issue. Rather, we define OpenGardens as a ‘level playing field’ or a ‘viable ecosystem’ for all providers in the industry.
In the context of the mobile data industry, ‘Openness’ can mean many things
a) Openness of access for the customer (i.e. the ability to access any content from their Mobile device).
b) Openness of platforms (for example a level playing field for third party applications as compared to the provider’s applications) or
c) ‘Open source’ as defined by http://www.opensource.org/
These three aspects are inter-related. In its ultimate form, this approach can be viewed as 'API enabling’ a Telecoms network. API (Applications Programming Interface) is the software that enables service provision by the Mobile operator. The external application can make a software call via the published API, thereby creating a 'plug and play' ecosystem. The API model is also called by other names such as ‘networked model’, ‘Bazaar model’ or ‘web services model’.
OpenGardens – Not a subsidy model
While OpenGardens leads to a ‘viable ecosystem’ – it is not an altruistic venture. There is a view that Mobile Network Operators should fund emerging content companies/creative media companies developing content for mobile phones. Indeed any investment in this industry is good and the idea thus has some merit.
But .. we don’t believe ‘Beatles to BT’ would work i.e. if the Beatles had been starting out - would they have approached BT(British Telecom i.e. an Operator) to sell their music? What would happen if they did? Would there be a Beatles - in the first place?
‘Beatles to BT’ would produce a flat,corporate 'anthem' rather than a vibrant, rich symphony. Thus, we don’t believe that any business entity should be forced to fund(subsidise) another entity.
Running a Mobile network is a business - not a charity. The Operator is in the business of making money - not in altruistic pursuits. Any form of 'grant' to emerging companies leads to a dependent companies. Such companies are rarely creative and rarely break free from the mother ship.
So, what's the right thing to do? Our suggestion is to simply 'create a viable ecosystem' i.e. create an ecosystem where a thousand flowers bloom. No one knows which one will succeed but at the outset they need a fertile plot of land. This means doing less. Making technology cheaper. Making partnerships easier to set up. Picking up the 'Amazon'(www.amazon.com) model of being a 'marketplace' (which is not the same as a 'pipe').
So, OpenGardens is really nothing more than a ‘level playing field’. Crucially, the revenue and partnership models are such that they benefit all players in the ecosystem.
One would argue – why should the providers create a ‘fair’ ecosystem? Is it in their interest to do so? We say emphatically - ‘yes’!. Look no further than the most important element in the value chain – she who pays the bill - the customer. The customers want more choice. Greater the familiarity with technology, more the aversion to be patronised (AOL being the case in point).
Posted by ajit at 8:07 PM
June 16, 2005
aggregators v.s. operators - pros and cons
Aggregators are an important channel to market. In some ways, because they reach more than one operator, they can have a wider reach than working with a single operator.
In simplest terms, an aggregator takes applications from more than one developers and distributes it to one or more operators.
I have been looking at aggregators for the next version of OpenGardens and I am discussing the pros and cons of working with an aggregator vs. working with multiple operators.
Conventional wisdom suggests that - an aggregator clearly serves some purpose. In some cases, the operator does not want to speak to developers directly. This means the developer is forced to go through an aggregator
Potentially, anyone could be an aggregator - for example in the games industry, some publishers are both developers and aggregators.
From what I have seen so far, an aggregator performs some or all of these functions
a) Distributing content to one or more operators
b) Distributing content from their own portal
c) Billing and invoicing
d) Packaging and bundling of applications
e) Sometimes testing etc
Even within the content space, most appear to cater for games only. Infospace, Digitalgridges and mforma seem to be content aggregators(perhaps more focussed on games) as opposed to application aggregators
Some companies like bango and end2end are aggregating applications and content
Questions I seek answers to are:
a) What do aggregators do other than the above?
b) Any recommended aggregators?
c) Pros and cons – aggregators vs. operators
d) Why are so many aggregators focussed on gaming?
e) Are there any good application aggregators?
f) Any experiences(good or bad) with aggregators?
Final word .. the whole aggregator model may be a red herring. With mobile search on the rise, I think that’s the way to go(but that’s another blog)!
Image source:
http://www.blytheco.com/images/misc_distribution.jpg
Posted by ajit at 9:32 PM
June 15, 2005
Tomi Ahonen's crystal ball - 20 years into the future
My good friend Tomi Ahonen has created this forecast. Makes fascinating reading!. Fascinating stuff. Not much to add really .. enjoy!
Consider 20 year into the past. I should be forecasting mobile telecoms. 20 years ago obviously the mobile phone was not particularly mobile as in personal - the phones were carphones. The batteries were literally the size of briefcases and weighed as much. But consider the IT industry overall. Modems ran at 1,024 or 2,048 bit/s (current 3G modems run 384 kbit/s, WiFi and broadband modems at several Mbit/s). There were no PC digital cameras, no DVD players. Music was shifting from vinyl and c-cassette to music CD. There was no Kazaa, there was no Napster, there were no MP3 players, there was hardly any digital music whatsoever!
And what of the computer? The top line PC in 1985 was what was generally called the "Turbo PC" by IBM, the AT, or the first of the 286 systems with the CPU running at 6 MHz. With 512K RAM, an EGA (640 x 350) standard colour screen, a 20 MB hard drive, and one 5.25" floppy drive which was really those original FLOPPY diskettes. No mouse, no windows, no internet, no multimedia, no CD drive.
Then there was the "rebel" computer, the Apple Macintosh. The very first Mac was unveiled in 1984 and this introduced the graphical user interface (GUI) ie what then was copied by Microsoft and called Windows. The Mac brought us the mouse and hypertext (allowing us eventually to have HTML based web pages on the internet).
Finally, for all of us "road warriers" 1985 gave us the world's first laptop computer, by Toshiba. You couldn't get it here in Europe or in Canada or the USA in 1985 the only country you could buy this weird expensive gadget was in Japan. Check out these specs of the original T1000: 8088 processor at 4.77 MHz and 512K of RAM memory, CGA monochrome display at 640 x 200 (yes a letter-box style display more wide than high), with a total of one 720 kb diskette drive - and NO hard drive. (But it did run 5 hours on one battery charge - the great benefit from not having a hard drive..)
With that in mind, now I was asked to look 20 years into the future. But I was honoured to do so, and did my very best. I decided to break down the forecast into parts, 5 years, 10 years, 15 years and 20 years into the future.
In 2010 the typical mainstream mobile phone will be 3.5G phone with a 5 Megapixel optical zoom cameraphone with WiFi type speeds and built-in TV tuners, and a gigabyte size hard drive (like today's i-Pods). The smallest phones are the size of a thick credit card. Credit cards merge with the mobile phone. Music and videgaming industries earn more from direct downloads to mobile phones that from sales of CD/DVD/gaming CDs in record stores/video stores. Mobile payments are commonplace for parking, vending machines, public transportation, lotteries, movies.
For 2015, I projected that the typical mobile phone will be the 4G phone. The optical and digital zoom has brought us "spy scopes" and telescope functionality to some cameraphones with 50x zooms and beyond. Speech recognition and synthesis introduces the sentence translator as a regular feature - from any language to any language. At this stage it is still cumbersome as we have to speak the sentences and wait for the translation, so this is not quite the Star Trek "universal translator" concept, but slowly getting there. Our phone will have so much storage ability that we can store every moving image and sound we experience around us for the past 15 minutes, and "rewind" live LIFE, much like today's PVRs like TiVo and Sky+ can rewind live TV. The small phones are of the size of a large matchbox. Obviously there are no keys on this phone and we don't hold it to our ear. Those interface matters are resolved.
As to services ten years from now in 2015 all major stores will accept payment by mobile phone, from petrol stations to supermarkets to hotels to convenience stores to restaurants etc. The total money transactions will shift where more money goes through mobile phones than stand-alone credit cards. m-Key applications become popular from our home and office keys being imbedded to our mobile phone, to hotels, car rentals etc issuing our keys directly to the mobile phone. A "virtual secretary" function appears to the phone, which handles accepting incoming calls and messages and we train the digital assistant to handle the calls and messages just like a real person - and the virtual secretatry is so realistic the other person does not know it is only software in our phone. By this time some major newspapers have stopped printing on paper.
By 2020 I forecasted that we get the 4.5G phone with 100 Mbit/s transmission speeds. By now the high end smartphones have built-in video projectors, like used at offices and conferences today to project large screen images. In that way we just place the phone on the table and can view any movie or videocall etc projected at any reasonably white wall. Storage ability is at the terabyte range, meaning that essentially "all recorded music" can be pre-loaded to the phone even before it is sold. The form factor of the smallest phones is a thick postage stamp.
By 2020 the personal secretary function evolves into a personality synthesizer - ie there will be software on my phone, that when you call it, you don't even know that you did not talk to me, you talked to my phone, which then makes necessary adjustments to my calendar, informs me briefly what was talked about etc. And the translator? by 2020 the bugs are fixed, and we have real-time translation, any language to any language.
By 2020 all payments go directly to the mobile phone account (ie it is the same as our bank account and our credit card account). We pay all relevant payments by mobile phone, from taxes to rents to monthly car payments etc. Most daily newspapers have stopped printing paper versions. Music CDs and movie DVDs are no longer made. And the "free" non-Mobile phone based "old-fashioned" internet has all but vanished.
Finally in 2025 we have the 5G phone. It is totally unfair to call this a phone and it certainly won't be called that. The form factor is more like a sugar cube or less, can easily be built into a ring for example. People will have these communication devices built into the body, into perhaps a tooth etc., With multi-multi terabyte hard drives these "phones" can ship with all the worlds' movies, or all the world's TV shows, or all the worlds' existing videogames, etc already preloaded, depending on what is your preference of entertainment. And of course mainstream phones come with the top 1000 fave movies, TV shows, videogames AND all existing music preloaded.
Perhaps the best forecast was that 20 years from now I will be 65 years old, and will be able to retire. I forecasted that I'd return to Ottawa in 2025 to celebrate 40 years of cellular telecoms in Canada, and laugh at all the silly predictions I made in 2005.
There is more at my full posting, so please visit the blogsite at www.communities-dominate.blogs.com
And for all you other pundits here at Ecademy, lets hear YOUR thoughts of what will mobile telecoms be like 20 years from now ha-ha
You can see more on his weblog HERE.
Posted by ajit at 8:25 PM
June 14, 2005
skype making inroads into mobile?
Two news articles today that link skype(and VOIP) to mobile.
Thats good news since it broadens the market!
imode strategy(a good sounce of all things imode and Japanses mobility) says ..
The newest team-up pairs Japan's Fusion Communications with Skype Technologies. Fusion takes incoming number-based calls and works with Skype's database to route them to Skype IP telephony subscribers using the 050- prefix, similar to NTT Communications' Click-2-Connect IP phone service, also using the 050 designation.
and a thread from the mobile apps club by Julian Bond
is about a similar product from ipdrum
I am watching this space with interest
ipdrum does not say a lot but I expect it will be a similar product like Fusion.
Its nice to see this space hotting up!
Posted by ajit at 10:40 PM
June 10, 2005
the significance of casual gamers ..
Earlier this week, I blogged about the lessons we could learn from the mogi mogi game.
One of the unique aspects in the mogi game was the use of casual gamers who complement the hardcore gamers. There is a nice article linked from Tom Hume's blog which in turn links to scottkim's article
Casual game developers tend to be small agile companies that can operate on small budgets. Many are single-person operations, and few have more than ten employees. Development times are rarely more than a few months, and can be as short as a week. Most casual game developers are pursuing a business strategy that includes a mixture of venues. For instance, veteran web game developer Clevermedia, founded in 1995, started by developing its own destination site and making money off ad revenues. As ad revenues started drying up, it shifted toward customizing its games for paying clients. Now Clevermedia offers enhanced versions of its games for paid download. All of these strategies support one another. The web site attracts first-time players and generates ad revenues. Some visitors to the web site go on to purchase downloaded games. The web site acts as a portfolio that attracts companies that want custom games. Other strategies include syndicating games to web sites (yellowbrix.com), charging players a subscription fee (upuzzles.com), and selling games through traditional retail channels. Of course the web is not the only platform for casual games. Gameboy, Palm and PocketPC are big markets, and mobile phone games loom on the horizon as an enormous opportunity. Many casual game developers offer their games on several of these platforms
Some of the principles outlined in this article apply to mobile game development - especially if you are innovative
The channels to market already exist(especially for single player games). Thus, one could start small and evolve from there.
Image source: http://www.searchamateur.com/corkboard/crossword-puzzle-track.jpg
Posted by ajit at 10:11 PM
June 9, 2005
OpenGardens change this manifesto - draft - part 1
As some of you know, Tony Fish and I have been accepted to create a manifesto at changethis. Considering other acceptees include Tom Peters, Seth Godin, Mark Cuban, Amnesty International and Al Gore - we are quite happy
I am syndicating the manifesto here in draft form for any comments feedback
Overview
We first advocated the philosophy of OpenGardens in our book ‘OpenGardens.
In this article, we discuss the philosophy of OpenGardens from the perspective of the mobile data industry. The mobile data industry is primarily concerned with the deployment of applications and content to a consumer audience over a wireless network. In a majority of the cases, that wireless network is managed by the telecoms operator (also known synonymously as the ‘carrier’ or ‘Mobile Network Operator’). Examples of a Mobile Network Operator are Vodafone, Verizon, NTT DoCoMo, T-mobile etc.
For consistency, we will use the phrase ‘Mobile Network Operator’ or ‘Operator’ in this document.
The central idea we are advocating here is – the industry as a whole – should work together to remove walls(both commercial and technical). This will unleash innovation and reduce fragmentation leading to more choice for the customer and increased revenue for all players in the industry.
On first glance, it seems an ‘idealistic’ proposition which could be realised only in the distant future. But it’s not as futuristic as it first sounds. We believe that it’s an idea whose time has come.
Market forces are conspiring with savvy customers to breach arcane revenue models. Inbuilt within the walled gardens argument is the belief that the customer is ‘dumb’(docile/resistant to change/ill informed about choices). In reality, the customer has a choice and she will take it – whether the industry likes it or not!
There are three reasons why OpenGardens is the ideal model for the industry:
a) With the rapidly changing competitive landscape, customers have a choice and customers will take the best option. In other words, OpenGardens will happen anyway.
b) The mobile device is ideally placed to become the focal point of digital convergence. The more open the industry is – the more it can benefit from the emergence of digital convergence.
c) OpenGardens overcomes the problem of fragmentation in the industry leading to more services, greater innovation, happier customers and increased revenue for all players in the industry.
It’s later than we think ..
On the surface, the industry seems structured, regimented and sometimes arcane. But, the tectonic plates are shifting. It’s later than we think.
Ironically, change is perhaps more visible and urgent in a relatively isolated country – than it is for us in mainland Europe.
Take the case of Greenland. With a landmass more than three times the size of Texas, two thirds of the country is permanently frozen. One look at the map below shows that settlements are based only around the coasts – with hostile terrain separating the cities. The entire population is only around 50,000 people!
source: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/gl.html
The sheer size and a relatively low population spread over a geographically hostile terrain - means that operator has a tough job on their hand in building and maintaining the infrastructure.
Everything in Greenland is costly(and house prices are comparable to London because its so expensive to build - i.e. all components have to shipped in). But try telling the telecom customers to accept higher prices! As everywhere else, the increasing use of VOIP(Voice over IP) is chipping into voice revenue. There is a strong push for flat rate data charges – which are being resisted (in a losing battle). Customers want more for less .. in a place where clearly the infrastructure is very expensive.
Note that, one can perfectly sympathise with the mobile operator’s predicament. But sympathy does not equate to commercial reality. The only choice is to evolve, embrace the new and profit from it.
Here is another sign of change – from a warmer climate(Barcelona – Spain). On May 23,2005 the mobile content direct to consumer conference was held in hotel Hilton in Barcelona. Presenters included among others – Disney and Vodafone. It’s indicative of interest among content providers for reaching the customer directly. Thus, OpenGardens is already happening.
Posted by ajit at 10:17 PM
lessons from the mogi game(japanese mobile multiplayer game)
I have been a big fan of the mogi game(Japan) and mobile multiplayer gaming in general. There is much we can learn from it and much more we can read between the lines
The basic idea is simple - Its a game 'on the move'. You pick up 'virtual' items. You trade them with other players.
But here is what's more interesting about it
a) Its location based but uses GPS(for finer tracking when you are close to the item) and cell id like tracking(overall). Obviously GPS is more expensive. cellid works at a range of 300m in urban areas and 1000m in rural areas according to the site. This is one of the only examples of location based services I have seen inspite of the hype around LBS!
b) It is deployed with only one operator as far as I can see(KDDI)
c) It uses top end phones and J2ME
d) It also uses a web + mobile experience. This is becoming increasingly common
e) It uses an innovative mix of casual and hardcore gamers
"Casual players don't seem so useful for a guild in a regular MMOG. In [Mogi] the casual player is somewhere, the casual gamer has his location going for him. For a team, the location of the player is something useful. The desktop player can send a tool to the mobile players, and teach them how to use it." Think of this way: the web interface becomes a means for the hardcore players to orchestrate the experience for the mobile (casual) players.
f) as expected, it has a community element
It has a community dimension to it, I chat with other players, I also know how far I am from them and finding out some are less than a few hundred meters to me is really exciting. Over the past month, I bumped into a player who turned out to be the creator of the game, I had to race to pick up a flag that had been put on the map at equal distance between me and another player to encourage us to meet.
g) It costs 315yen/month which is approximately $2.94/month + IP charges
h) I was not sure about the GPS charges and the location request charges
In Europe, I would follow a slightly different strategy. The key is critical mass. Hence, instead of J2ME - I would go for WAP/SMS for mobile and complement by a much stronger web interface
Any comments welcome!
Posted by ajit at 6:18 AM
June 8, 2005
TV genius
I had the pleasure of having dinner with Tom Weiss yesterday
(Vice President Key Service Introduction T-Mobile International).
One of the interesting applications he pointed out to me was tv genius .
In the mobile apps club, we are using this application as a gedankenexperiment – a thought experiment – on how we could market such an application off portal
Initial thoughts(collated from discussions in the club HERE are
a) currently it has SMS alerts. Could expand to video feeds
b) The concept is simple and useful. Perhaps we could get
sponsorship for it from the content people
c) A small ad from the advertisers with each message perhaps?
d) From Nick Ris
For me the obvious cash generator would be up sell of home tv package. i.e. you type in 'Football' and the results display shows that you can't watch because you don't have SKY etc such that you push users to your affiliate partners to get the better TV package..
e) Build up a community first and then expand on it
Mobile TV is a buzzword at the moment and so this app may have timed it right(but still needs to start as a simple SMS alert and grow a community in my view). Give me your ideas and I shall pass them on and refer you on the blog
Posted by ajit at 1:53 AM
June 4, 2005
channels to market ..
Companies often forget that the mobile operator is not the only channel to market. In a discussion we had at the Mobile applications club, we identified 23 more.
Here they are
1) Embedded applications within the handset – for example embedded games like ‘Snake’ on Nokia handsets. This requires a partnership with the device manufacturer
2) Partnership programs created by operating system vendors such as Symbian. In general, many large vendors have partnership programs. Often, these programs also have a ‘marketplace’ i.e. a place where third party applications can be sold.
3) Third party content sites on the Internet for example Monstermob
4) Distributors/aggregators who could sell games or content from their site for example www.mforma.com or in turn resell the content to operators with whom they have built commercial relationships.
5) High street stores: Selling applications in high street stores – either Mobile operator owned or independent stores ex Carphone warehouse
6) SIM applications – i.e. applications deployed on the SIM card
7) Developer programs from handset manufactures such as forum Nokia
8) Bundling and packaging with other products - for example CD inlays for selling ringtones
9) Media / promotion / advertising companies who may manage brands. Promotion campaigns for these brands could include a Mobile element. Examples of such agencies are flytext
10) Web portals such as yahoo
11) Other media like Newspapers, television, radio stations etc who could be potential partners due to their access to a large customer base.
12) Specific channels depending on application types – for example offline dating agencies for Mobile dating applications
13) Systems integrators who could have existing relationships with large corporate customers.
14) Third party Mobile portals either based on WAP or more recently Java.
15) Fixed line operators(wireline, cable, DSL, Wifi)
16) MVNOs (mobile virtual network operators)
17) Communities
18) Partnerships with device manufacturers(add on memory applications)
19) Distribution via Bluetooth
20) Off portal revenues(Premium SMS/Bango etc)
21) Prepaid cards
22) Kiosk/Point of use
23) Viral marketing and ofcourse
24) The mobile operator!!
Original discussion HERE
Image: duke.edu via google images
Posted by ajit at 3:10 PM
June 3, 2005
Mortal portals and the information superhighway ..
The Mobile Internet appears to be mirroring the Internet. In the early days, the word 'Information superhighway' was often used for the 'Internet'. Notice that it is not used a lot now!. Certain players loved the word 'Information superhighway' - because a highway - connotes a tax. But the Internet is not a highway - it's a network - with no single path - and hence no tax.
But the idea of a 'toll' on a highway still remains. On the Mobile Internet, the Information superhighway becomes a 'portal' - i.e. an attempt to create a single channel for the customer(read 'toll booth').
I believe that - like the information superhighway - portals are mortal
This week, both thefeature and Justin Pearse(features editor of New Media age pick this story up
In Bubble era portal obsessions move into the mobile space The feature points out, rightly IMHO, that
from the perspective of content producers, a screen is a screen, and so they're all starting to "jockey" for position on various mobile portals. It seems like the classic entertainment industry view of these types of things. To them, all content is "broadcast" content -- to be consumed passively by an audience, spoon-fed by the expert content pickers. They seem to believe that the only way that users can find content is if it's handed to them by the operators in a "portal."
Justin Pearse, whose views I value, also picks up the same story in new media age
UK operators say up to 70% of revenues come from off-portal By Justin Pearse
The market for mobile content outside operator portals is exploding in the UK, with operators reporting that up to 70% of revenues are being driven from outside the portal. The news is significant for a market that has long viewed the dominance of the operator portal as exerting a stranglehold on the market. The shift in consumer behaviour raises questions over the multiple millions spent by the operators building new brands with portals such as Vodafone Live! and O2 Active.Image source:
So, if portals are not the preferred means of finding content - what is? For the answer, look no further than google ..
Mobile search, while still in it's relative infancy - is the way to go!
flag source: http://www.us-101.com/
Posted by ajit at 10:14 PM
June 1, 2005
The mobile internet: focal point for digital convergence ..
Digital convergence is a much-maligned concept – but it’s an idea whose dawn is near. First proposed by Nicholas Negroponte in his 1995 book ‘Being Digital’.
Negroponte’s definition of Digital convergence is “Bits co-mingle effortlessly. They start to get mixed up and can be used and re-used separately or together. The mixing of audio, video, and data is called multimedia. It sounds complicated, but it's nothing more than co-mingled bits."
The factors driving digital convergence include the rapid digitisation of content, greater bandwidth, increased processing power and the Internet. Digital convergence brings four (previously) distinct industry sectors in collaboration/competition with each other. Thus, we have Media/Entertainment, PC/Computing, consumer electronics and telecommunications industries all interacting closely with each other than before.
On first impressions, ‘Mobile’ appears to be only a small part of the entire digital convergence domain. When we wrote OpenGardens, we approached the topic of ‘Openness’ from the perspective of the Mobile Internet and the Mobile Network Operator. By it’s very nature, ‘openness in mobility’ is a subset of the wider digital convergence across all sectors of technology and business. Thus, it seems restrictive to confine ourselves to ‘Openness on the Mobile Internet ’ and the Mobile Network Operators. Yet, we believe that the Mobile Internet is pivotal to the success of digital convergence.
We believe that – the more open the mobile device, the more it will be a focal point to digital convergence
Why do we say this?
The answer lies with the customers. Customers do not understand ‘Digital convergence’. They are more interested in what they can do (or cannot do!). From a customer perspective, they see a ‘Bi centric’ convergence – i.e. convergence around the ‘Person’ and convergence around the ‘home’. This can be illustrated as below.
source: Ahonen and Moore – communities dominate brands
The impact of Bi-Centric convergence means suddenly, the customer is exposed to a range of devices and technologies all around them. These devices have considerable overlapping functionality. The customer’s choice is between a ‘specialised’ device or a ‘generic device(i.e. a digital ‘Swiss army knife’) device .
While specialised devices may provide the ‘best’ solution for a specific requirement(such as taking a picture), the mobile device often provides a ‘good enough’ solution. Also, the mobile device gets better each year(for example - the Samsung D500 has a 1.3 megapixel camera and is marketed as a mass-market phone). And finally, the mobile device is ‘handy’ i.e. it provides an instant solution (‘capturing the moment’) which is good enough for most requirements.
With the Mobile device becoming the digital ‘Swiss army knife’ the basic functionality of a phone(voice calls) has been supplemented by functionality of a mp3 player, digital camera, radio, games player and even television. While the mobile device will not cannibalise the specialised device, it will be the device ‘most often used’ by consumers to access digital content(even when there are other devices that can provide a technically superior solution to a particular problem).
Thus, we believe that, starting with 3G (the first true IP solution) – the mobile device will be the focal point of Digital convergence purely because customers will use it most often to access digital content!! . It is this observation that makes the Mobile Internet the focal point of the wider digital convergence.
Posted by ajit at 8:56 PM
May 29, 2005
Show me the money!
If weblogs have a patron saint, I guess the patron saint of this blog would be Jerry Maguire - with his trademark phrase - 'Show me the money'
Having spent a lot of time trying to understand how to 'sell' mobile applications(wireless applications) - I keep being reminded of this phrase often
Selling a mobile application is not an easy task and requires an understanding of multiple disciplines - technology/sales/channels to market and so on.
Its often possible to 'sell a mobile application' but make little money!Here is an example -
Consider mobile gaming - a 'hot topic'. How many game downloads would it need to attain a profit?
The Mobile game industry is similar to the PC or console game market. Traditionally sales are heavily skewed to the top ten titles, and in many cases the top five take a huge portion of the entire market. Most titles lose money. Net margins for Mobile operator and aggregator distribution models (for example using aggregators like Cellmania, Mforma etc) run from 60% to 75% in the USA. In other markets, it could be worse (for example India), or better (for example Japan and Korea).
In the USA, a game typically retails at $3.99 (for an ‘over the air/OTA’) delivery. Product development costs for a single player game title could range up to $40K including handset testing and porting (but that could get a lot cheaper if developed overseas). Assuming a net of $2 after all costs, we need sales of 20,000 units just to break even. This gets even worse because many successful titles depend on a brand – for example a ‘Harry Potter’ game. Brands have their own costs leaving even less for the developer.
Does that mean there is no money in this field?
Although mobile games themselves are saturated, there is money in variants ..
3D gaming(technology variant), multiplayer gaming(communities), games for women(subsector of the audience)
In a nutshell, the 'obvious' approach would be to create a game single player game (just because there are so many of them) .. but it may not be the most profitable (and our patron saint would frown on it!)
Example source: OpenGardens
Movie : Jerry Maguire : 1996
Posted by ajit at 12:10 AM
May 26, 2005
Beatles to BT? would it work?
On a day when Liverpool is celebrating, I thought that this would be a good topic to start my blog on.
Would 'Beatles to BT' work? i.e. If the Beatles had been starting out - would they have approached BT to sell their music? What would happen if they did? Would there be a Beatles - in the first place?
Yet, why do we see so many new content providers attempt to sell their content via the Mobile Network Operator?
There is a view that Mobile Network Operators should fund emerging content companies/creative media companies developing content for mobile phones. Indeed any investment in this industry is good and the idea thus has some merit.
But .. I still think .. Beatles to BT would produce a flat,corporate 'anthem' rather than a vibrant, rich symphony
Here are the reasons why
a) Operators can't know what to fund. How do they decide what will be a hit? Even record labels/movie companies struggle to spot the next 'Kylie'. Why should Operators(often engineers like me) go 'kylie spotting'? Why should they enter an area which is clearly out of their realm of expertise?
b) Operators don't know what to fund(which is different from (a)). Its not an area of expertise
c) Operators may have a lot of cash - but expect hard times ahead. More on this in subsequent posts. Thus, I would not expect Operators to be cash rich for long
d) Running a Mobile network is a business - not a charity. The Operator is in the business of making money - not in altruistic pursuits. Any form of 'grant' to emerging companies leads to a dependent companies. Such companies are rarely creative and rarely break free from the mother ship
e) Many operators already have venture funds. These have been only modestly successful and infact - largely unsuccessful.
f) There have been instances of 'mobile only brands' created by non operators. This week, the crazy frog overtook coldplay for the top stop. Granted, that the 'frog' has had massive TV publicity in the UK. Even then, it's no operator brand. This means, a creative brand CAN be developed without backing from an operator.
So, what's the right thing to do? I don't pretend to know all the answers but one suggestion is to 'create a viable ecosystem' i.e. create an ecosystem where a thousand flowers bloom. No one knows which one will succeed but at least they need a fertile plot of land. This means doing less. Making technology cheaper. Making partnerships easier to set up. Picking up the 'Amazon' model of being a 'marketplace'(which is not the same as a 'pipe')
The phrase 'Beatles to BT' was used by Tom Weiss in the OpenGardens meeting on May 19.
Posted by ajit at 9:04 PM